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‘Weakens Its Image’: Experts Explain Why Hezbollah Stopped Announcing Terrorist Deaths Over Past Two Months
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem leads prayers during funeral of Hezbollah senior leader Ibrahim Aqil and Hezbollah member Mahmoud Hamad, who were killed in Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, in Beirut, Lebanon, Sept. 22, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
Since the war between Israel and Hezbollah began to escalate this September, the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization has stopped announcing its casualties through public relations channels. Experts tell The Algemeiner this is likely because of the breakdown of Hezbollah’s command and control structure or in order to help control narratives around the conflict.
Rather than death notices being published by Hezbollah itself — as was the case from October 2023 to September 2024 — terrorist deaths have mainly been reported by open intelligence sources based on funeral notices and social media posts.
Israeli assessments suggest that over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since October 2023, said Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). This number includes upwards of 1,000 terrorists killed since the situation in northern Israel, which borders Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon, began to escalate just under two months ago.
Brodsky’s approximate number is somewhat supported by at least one open-source intelligence gatherer who has identified almost 1,500 Hezbollah casualties as of Nov. 11, 2024, primarily using funeral notices found on local social media channels. This includes about 900 deaths since September. Experts estimate the number of Hezbollah fighters wounded to be three or four times higher than the death count, including the thousands of Hezbollah fighters injured in Israel’s pager attack in September, when communications devices used by the terrorists exploded simultaneously across Lebanon.
Hezbollah is widely considered to have a pre-war fighting force of around 20,000-25,000 militiamen working full-time, with tens of thousands more in the reserves.
Hezbollah has good reason, experts say, to hide its true casualty numbers as the terrorist organization appears to still be suffering from command-and-control disruptions due to Israeli military pressure. As a result, Hezbollah has been forced to use guerilla tactics rather than operating as a coherent military force.
While Israel has suffered almost 100 civilian and military casualties in its offensive against Hezbollah, along with relentless rocket fire and drone attacks from the Islamist organization on the country’s north — and at times, in the heart of Tel Aviv — the level of damage to Israel’s home front and critical infrastructure has been far less than expected.
Max Abrahms, professor of international relations at Northeastern University, explained that terrorist groups such as Hezbollah often lie.
“Sometimes they conceal information about their own losses,” he said.
“The reason why they do that,” Abrahms continued, “is because they want to create the perception that they’re more successful than they really are. And terrorist groups very often have to do that because, in general, terrorist groups are losers.”
Over the past few months, Israel has decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, with almost its entire top level of command being killed — including Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader. Israel has long been worried that a war with Hezbollah could result in massive losses for the Jewish state, as the Lebanese terror group reportedly had more than 120,000 rockets over various ranges in its arsenal, primarily sponsored by Iran. Israeli estimates suggest Hezbollah now retains only 20 percent of its missile arsenal and that Israel has eliminated 70 percent of its drone arsenal, according to Brodsky.
“Hezbollah may want to cover up such losses as it weakens its image as Iran’s terror proxy crown jewel of resistance,” Brodsky added.
Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former White House deputy national security adviser, agreed.
“The usual terrorist pattern is to exaggerate the number of civilian casualties and deny the number of terrorists killed,” he said. “This is done to mask the impact of Israeli strikes on armed Hezbollah men and keep up Hezbollah morale.”
After Israel’s pager attack, air and ground campaign, and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, the group is struggling to keep up its rocket fire and military operations against Israel.
At the same time, Hezbollah may still be able to manufacture weapons.
“Hezbollah may still have capacity to manufacture missiles and drones in Lebanon proper, and that’s not to mention ongoing Iranian attempts to ship weapons and supplies,” Abrams said. “But, those corridors have become more restricted with Israel’s operations.”
The post ‘Weakens Its Image’: Experts Explain Why Hezbollah Stopped Announcing Terrorist Deaths Over Past Two Months first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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