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Syria in the Post-Assad Era: Towards Ethnic Division or a Unified State?
The past decade has seen Syria engulfed in a brutal civil war, marked by foreign intervention, relentless repression, and the unraveling of its fragile social fabric. This turmoil has fueled a mass exodus of refugees, reshaping Europe’s demographics and political landscape.
Now, as the Assad regime has collapsed, Syria faces a pivotal question: Can it emerge as a unified sovereign state, or will ethnic divisions dictate its future?
Historical Roots of the Crisis: Artificial Borders and Failed Ethnic Harmony
Syria’s current plight is not solely the result of recent events. It stems from deep-seated issues rooted in the colonial legacy of the Middle East.
The 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement carved up the region with scant regard for its ethnic, religious, and sectarian complexities. The resulting state was a volatile mosaic of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Druze, Christians, Turkmen, and others.
During the French Mandate, attempts were made to partition Syria into autonomous regions based on ethnic and sectarian lines. These included a Druze state in Jebel Druze, an Alawite state in Latakia, a Turkmen-dominated region of Alexandretta, and separate Arab Sunni states for Damascus and Aleppo. However, this experiment failed, and in 1946, Syria gained independence as a unified state.
A Unified Kingdom or Ethnic Partition?
After Assad’s abdication, the question of Syria’s future looms large. Could it return to being a unified state, or is ethnic partition a more viable path to stability?
Among the potential scenarios:
- Druze Autonomy in Jebel Druze: A concept supported in the past by figures like Israeli leader Yigal Alon, this option could appeal to local Druze communities. However, their willingness to align with a pro-Israel arrangement remains doubtful given their precarious geopolitical position.
- An Alawite State in Latakia: Syria’s coastal region, an Alawite stronghold, could serve as a natural refuge for the community. It’s even conceivable, in the region’s unpredictable dynamics, that Bashar al-Assad himself could return there.
- A Federal Syrian Model: Similar to Iraq, this approach would grant significant autonomy to various groups while maintaining the semblance of a unified state.
Key Challenges
- Foreign Interference: Major players like Russia, Turkey, and Iran have heavily invested in Syria, each pursuing its strategic interests. Any ethnic partition would likely face their strong opposition, especially if it diminishes their influence.
- Leadership and Israeli Policy: Should a figure like Abu Mohammad al-Julani, with roots in al-Qaeda, retain power, the prospects for stability dim further. Julani’s ties to the Golan Heights –his family fled the region after the 1967 war — underscore his likely antagonism toward Israel and territorial concessions.
- The Golan Heights Question: Once a contentious issue in peace negotiations, the strategic importance of the Golan was underscored during the Syrian civil war. The chaos reaffirmed Israel’s security imperative to retain the area, a sentiment bolstered by US recognition of Israeli sovereignty there.
Syria’s Future: A Litmus Test for Israeli Policy
Post-Assad Syria is a test of Israel’s strategic approach to regional instability. Israel must maintain its deterrence posture, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized during his significant visit to the Golan Heights. Strengthening Israel’s hold on this strategic region is crucial to countering hostile actors.
While some in the international community hope for a unified Syria, the reality suggests otherwise. Ethnic partition appears to be one of the few pragmatic solutions to stabilize the country. Yet, aggressive opposition from global powers and internal factions renders this outcome unlikely in the near term.
Turkey, for instance, vehemently opposes a Kurdish autonomy that might embolden its own Kurdish minority. Iran seeks to consolidate its influence through Shiite alliances, including with the Alawites. Meanwhile, figures like Julani will resist any division that curtails their power or excludes major factions from influence.
Toward a Federal Solution?
The enduring conflict makes meaningful reconstruction a distant prospect. Ethnic partition offers a glimmer of hope for stability, but remains a long shot. Interim solutions, such as a federal system granting limited autonomy within a unified framework, may provide the only viable path forward.
Ultimately, the success of such models depends on creative and painstaking negotiations, both locally and internationally. Syria’s post-Assad reality is a complex battlefield of clashing interests, and achieving the elusive goal of stability will require unprecedented diplomatic ingenuity.
Itamar Tzur is an Israeli scholar and Middle East expert who holds a Bachelor’s degree with honors in Jewish History and a Master’s degree with honors in Middle Eastern Studies. As a senior member of the “Forum Kedem for Middle Eastern Studies and Public Diplomacy,” Tzur leverages his academic expertise to enhance understanding of regional dynamics and historical contexts within the Middle East.
The post Syria in the Post-Assad Era: Towards Ethnic Division or a Unified State? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Alleged NYC terror plotter moved to Montreal detention pending extradition hearing
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, the 20-year-old Pakistani national who was arrested by the RCMP in Quebec on Sept. 4 about 20 kilometres from the U.S. border while allegedly en route to conduct an attack on Jews in New York City, has been moved to a prison in Montreal.
Khan is alleged to have devised a plot for the large-scale murder of Jews on the anniversary of the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks in Israel and on Yom Kippur, in support of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) terrorist group. According to U.S. Justice Department documents, Khan communicated to undercover agents that “if we succeed with our plan this would be the largest attack on U.S. soil since 9/11.”
Khan, also known as Shazeb Jadoon, was arrested and detained in Rimouski, 550 km east of Montreal, until his Dec. 19 transfer. The Mississauga, Ont., resident speaks no French, and his lawyer said he could not work with his client while he was held there, where he could not help him understand government documents, and the suspect could not communicate with French-speaking prison guards.
He appeared briefly at the Montreal courthouse Friday morning and will return to Superior Court on Jan. 17, when a date will be set for an extradition hearing. Ottawa agreed to a U.S. extradition request for Khan to stand trial in the Southern District of New York on charges of attempting to provide material support and resources to a foreign terrorist organization. If convicted, he faces up to 20 years in prison.
Khan arrived in Canada in June 2023 on a student visa, Immigration Minister Marc Miller confirmed a week after the arrest, which was pursuant to section 495 of Canada’s Criminal Code: attempting to leave Canada to commit an offence for a terrorist group, participating in the activities of a terrorist group, and conspiracy to commit an offence by violating United States immigration law.
He was then re-arrested on a provisional warrant under the Extradition Act as Canadian authorities were uncertain whether they could detain him based on existing evidence.
“The news of threats to the Jewish community is alarming,” read an RCMP statement. “We will not tolerate any form of threats, harassment or violence targeting Jewish communities. The RCMP continues to work in collaboration with our domestic and international partners to detect, investigate and disrupt criminal acts that are targeting Jewish communities.
“With the strong partnership between Canada and the U.S. we can reassure the public that as his actions escalated, at no point in time was Khan an immediate threat prior to his arrest.”
According to the U.S. Justice Department complaint drawn up by an FBI counterterrorism agent, Khan planned to use automatic and semi-automatic weapons to carry out a mass shooting at Chabad locations. Authorities say he began posting on social media and communicating with others around November 2023 on an encrypted messaging application about his support for ISIS, when he allegedly distributed ISIS propaganda videos and literature.
He then began communicating with two undercover law enforcement officers, the complaint reads. “During those conversations, Khan confirmed that he and a U.S.-based ISIS supporter had been planning to carry out an attack in a particular U.S. city. Among other things, Khan said that he had been actively attempting to create ‘a real offline cell’ of ISIS supporters to carry out a ‘coordinated assault’ using AR-style rifles to “target Israeli Jewish chabads… scattered all around” the city.
According to the document, Khan envisioned teams launching three attacks simultaneously “on diff[erent] locations maximizing casualty count” and repeatedly instructed undercover agents to obtain assault rifles, ammunition and “some good hunting [knives] so we can slit their throats,” identifying specific locations where attacks would take place.
He also instructed them to acquire burner cell phones and allegedly provided details about how he would cross into the United States. During conversations with the agents, he allegedly emphasized that Oct. 7 and 11 were the best days for targeting Jews “because ‘Oct 7 they will surely have some protests and Oct 11 is yom kippur’.”
The complaint alleges that, just a few weeks after the Hamas attack in Israel, he was posting support for jihad and images of weapons. The FBI also says Khan boasted that New York is perfect to target Jews because it has the “largest Jewish population In america” and, therefore, “even if we dont attack a event [sic], we could rack up easily a lot of jews.” Khan then allegedly proclaimed, “We are going to nyc to slaughter them,” and sent a photograph of the area he envisioned for the attack.
Khan attempted to reach the U.S-Canada border using three separate cars before being apprehended in Ormstown, after officers from different police forces followed him from the Toronto area.
U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland thanked Canadian law enforcement for their assistance, adding “Jewish communities—like all communities in this country—should not have to fear that they will be targeted by a hate-fueled terrorist attack.”
The post Alleged NYC terror plotter moved to Montreal detention pending extradition hearing appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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Israel for First Time Claims Responsibility for Killing of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Monday acknowledged for the first time that Israel killed Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
“These days, when the Houthi terrorist organization is firing missiles at Israel, I want to convey a clear message to them at the beginning of my remarks: We have defeated Hamas, we have defeated Hezbollah, we have blinded Iran’s defense systems and damaged the production systems, we have toppled the Assad regime in Syria, we have dealt a severe blow to the axis of evil, and we will also deal a severe blow to the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen, which remains the last to stand,” Katz said during an event honoring defense ministry personnel.
Israel will “damage their strategic infrastructure, and we will behead their leaders. Just as we did to Haniyeh, [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, and [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah in Tehran, Gaza, and Lebanon [respectively] — we will do it in Hodeidah and Sana’a,” Katz continued. “Whoever raises a hand against Israel will have their hand cut off, and the long arm of the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] will strike them and settle the score.”
Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are all internationally designated terrorist organizations backed by Iran. Katz’s comments came after the Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv over the weekend. The Houthis have also been attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea for more than a year, saying they are acting in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza and will prevent all ships from heading to Israeli ports.
Haniyeh, the exiled political chief of Hamas, was killed in an explosion in Iran’s capital city on July 31. Iran had accused Israel of carrying out the assassination and vowed revenge; however, for months the Israeli government had neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
Haniyeh was based in Qatar and had been the face of Hamas’s during the Israel-Hamas war, which the Palestinian terroris group launched with its invasion of and massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
Following Haniyeh’s death, Sinwar was named the terrorist group’s overall leader after being its top official in Gaza. Sinwar, who masterminded the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.
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‘Should Scare Every American’: Top Trump Adviser Mike Waltz Explains Dangers of Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons
US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), who was recently tapped to serve as the White House national security adviser for the incoming Trump administration, outlined in a new interview why Iran’s nuclear program could pose a major threat to the United States and must be stopped.
During an interview with Daily Wire co-founder and conservative podcast host Ben Shapiro, Waltz said that his constituents often do not understand how Iran’s nuclear ambitions impact American interests. The lawmaker explained that Iran obtaining nuclear weapons could kick-start an arms race and geopolitical firestorm in the Middle East, potentially forcing the US to become more involved in the region militarily.
“No. 1, if Iran gets a nuke, the Saudis are going to want a nuke, the Turks are going to want a nuke, and the Middle East exploding, not literally but figuratively, in a nuclear arms race should scare every American,” Waltz said.
Though Waltz conceded that nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would not necessarily result in “World War III,” he asserted that it would be “catastrophic for the world.”
The lawmaker added that a nuclear-armed Iran would endanger Israel, which he described as America’s “critical ally, morally and historically and geopolitically,” and that the US should take threats by Iranian leadership to eliminate Israel seriously.
“We should believe [Iran’s so-called ‘supreme leader,’ Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] who intends to wipe Israel off the face of the earth if they have nukes,” Waltz said.
Waltz also praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for “exposing Iran’s air defenses so that they literally are naked right now and on their back foot.” He appeared to be referring to Israel’s precision airstrikes on Iranian military and air defense sites in October which devastated the regime’s air-defense system and ballistic missile program. The strikes were in response to Iran’s ballistic missile barrage against Israel weeks earlier.
Waltz went on to say that the incoming Trump administration plans on “hitting” Iran’s finances throughout the Middle East and stopping the flow of money “out of Tehran into Beirut and into [Iran’s] proxies in Syria.”
Iran has supported several terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — both of which have been devastated by Israeli military operations in recent months. The Iranian regime also backed the recently ousted Assad regime in Syria, where Israel launched limited operations to ensure security at its northeastern amid uncertainty about Syria’s future.
“I hope that all of this has Hamas so isolated. They really thought the cavalry was coming from the north with Hezbollah. Now, that has been shown not to be true; Hamas has every exit blocked except one, and that is to release our hostages if you want to live,” Waltz said.
Harsh US sanctions levied on Iran under the Trump administration from 2017-2021 crippled the Iranian economy and led its foreign exchange reserves to plummet. US President-elect Donald Trump and his Republican supporters in the US Congress have criticized the Biden administration for renewing billions of dollars in US sanctions waivers, which had the effect of unlocking frozen funds and allowing the country to access previously inaccessible hard currency.
US intelligence agencies have for years labeled Iran as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism, noting it devotes significant sums of money and weapons each year to supporting proxies across the Middle East such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
The post ‘Should Scare Every American’: Top Trump Adviser Mike Waltz Explains Dangers of Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons first appeared on Algemeiner.com.