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Israel’s Hostage Deal Is a Tragic and Historic Mistake
Orthodox Jewish men stand near a tank, ahead of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from the Israeli side of the border with Gaza, Jan. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
The Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal is a massive and crippling defeat for Israel. There is no other way to frame it.
After 15 months of fighting, the best deal Israel could secure was releasing 57 Palestinian criminals and murderers for every Israeli hostage.
Judging from a partial list of those being released, it seems very likely that far more than 98 Israelis will die as a result of this deal.
It is also clear that Israel has failed in its war aims to eradicate Hamas from Gaza and replace it with a new government. The war didn’t establish a deterrent to future terrorism; in fact, this hostage deal will likely *increase* the risk of terrorism, especially hostage-taking.
As Palestinian Media Watch has pointed out, the seeds of the October 7 massacre were planted in 2011, when Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian terrorists and murderers for one living Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
The terrorists released in 2011 went on to kill or aid in the murder of more than a thousand Israelis, and planned the October 7 massacre itself. (Yahya Sinwar was one of those released in 2011; similarly, many terrorist leaders and masterminds are being released this time).
The Gilad Shalit deal taught the Palestinian people one critical lesson: kidnapping Israelis works.
Now, once again, Palestinians are seeing the fruits of their labors with the absurd release of 1,900 Palestinian terrorists and prisoners for 33 Israelis (who aren’t even all alive).
Of course, we all want to see the 98 Israeli hostages come home — but the definition of insanity is to repeat the same policy and expect a different result; yet, that’s exactly what Israel has done.
It seems mind-boggling that Israel could not extract a better terrorist-to-hostage ratio than 57:1 after 15 months of fighting in Gaza.
Even a 5-to-1 ratio would have seemed reasonable. Yet Hamas got 11 times that, which suggests that — contrary to the claims of the Israeli government — Hamas’ capabilities have not been degraded. If Hamas had been truly weakened, Israel could have secured a much better deal.
Between future kidnapping attempts — and acts of terrorism that will be committed by the thousands of murderers and terrorists being released — it’s virtually guaranteed that far more than 98 Israelis will die in the future because of this deal. (And remember, at least 34 of those Israeli hostages are already dead).
Israel’s ethos of bringing all its people home is a beautiful one; but beauty isn’t always the answer in the face of a barbaric, unrelenting, and sadistic enemy that is determined to murder every Jew in Israel.
Perhaps one could argue that Israel owes these 98 people a special duty, since the country failed them spectacularly on October 7. But doesn’t the Israeli government owe the guarantee of life and safety to nine million people in Israel?
Israel’s government had the obligation to choose the outcome that saved the most lives. But years from now, it will become very clear that this deal took more lives than it saved.
So many innocent children, women, and men will be lost — but it seems less tragic, because we can’t see their faces yet.
If Israel really wanted to bring those hostages home at any cost, it should have prosecuted the war in a completely different way (to achieve a better hostage deal or an actual victory) — and it should be treating Palestinian terrorists and murderers in a completely different way than we are now.
Some have suggested that Phase 1 of the deal is just a ploy to get some hostages back — and that once it’s completed, Israel will continue its war in Gaza apace. That seems unlikely given the exhaustion of Israel’s military, the international pressure that will be mounted against it, and various other factors. And even if that does happen — we still will have released hundreds of murderers and terrorist masterminds; Israeli soldiers will be at much greater risk than they were before; and it’s hard to believe Israel can accomplish what it hasn’t in 15 months absent a severe change of strategy, or more troops and resources.
Others have blamed this hostage deal on the United States — yet Prime Minister Netanyahu showed that he was able to resist pressure from the Biden administration at almost every turn. Either Trump is not the loyal friend of Israel he claims to be, or Netanyahu chose not to expend his political capital to fight for a better outcome. If nothing else, the deal sheds light on Netanyahu’s weakness, and Trump’s interest in being a “dealmaker” rather than the loyal advocate of Israel that many had hoped for.
Overall, this deal signals one thing: Israel’s weakness, both geostrategically, and among its political leadership.
More terror will result from this deal — and we can only hope that it’s not worse than October 7, 2023.
We must also hope that Israel finally finds competent leadership that avoids the extremes of the far-right and far-left, but acts with common sense — and the best interest of all nine million Israeli citizens — as its guiding policy.
The author is a political commentator and political analyst.
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Terrorist Responsible for Death of 21 Soldiers Eliminated
An Israeli F-35I “Adir” fighter jet. Photo: IDF
i24 News – Khalil Abd al-Nasser Mohammed Khatib, the terrorist who commanded the terrorist cell that killed 21 soldiers in the southern Gaza Strip on January 22, 2024, was killed by an Israeli airstrike, the IDF said on Sunday.
In a joint operation between the military and the Shin Bet security agency, the terrorist was spotted in a reconnaissance mission. The troops called up an aircraft to target him, and he was eliminated.
Khatib planned and took part in many other terrorist plots against Israeli soldiers.
i24NEWS’ Hebrew channel interviewed Dor Almog, the sole survivor of the mass casualty disaster, who was informed on live TV about the death of the commander responsible for the killing his brothers-in-arms.
“I was sure this day would come – I was a soldier and I know what happens at the end,” said Almog. “The IDF will do everything to bring back the abductees and to topple Hamas, to the last one man.”
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Stanley Fischer, Former Fed Vice Chair and Bank of Israel Chief, Dies at 81
FILE PHOTO: Vice Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve System Stanley Fischer arrives to hear Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney delivering the Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture at the International Monetary Fund in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2017. Photo: REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo
Stanley Fischer, who helped shape modern economic theory during a career that included heading the Bank of Israel and serving as vice chair of the US Federal Reserve, has died at the age of 81.
The Bank of Israel said he died on Saturday night but did not give a cause of death. Fischer was born in Zambia and had dual US-Israeli citizenship.
As an academic at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Fischer trained many of the people who went on to be top central bankers, including former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as well as Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank president.
Fischer served as chief economist at the World Bank, and first deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund during the Asian financial crisis and was then vice chairman at Citigroup from 2002 to 2005.
During an eight-year stint as Israel’s central bank chief from 2005-2013, Fischer helped the country weather the 2008 global financial crisis with minimal economic damage, elevating Israel’s economy on the global stage, while creating a monetary policy committee to decide on interest rates like in other advanced economies.
He was vice chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017 and served as a director at Bank Hapoalim in 2020 and 2021.
Current Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron praised Fischer’s contribution to the Bank of Israel and to advancing Israel’s economy as “truly significant.”
The soft-spoken Fischer – who played a role in Israel’s economic stabilization plan in 1985 during a period of hyperinflation – was chosen by then Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as central bank chief.
Netanyahu, now prime minister, called Fischer a “great Zionist” for leaving the United States and moving to Israel to take on the top job at Israel’s central bank.
“He was an outstanding economist. In the framework of his role as governor, he greatly contributed to the Israeli economy, especially to the return of stability during the global economic crisis,” Netanyahu said, adding that Stanley – as he was known in Israel – proudly represented Israel and its economy worldwide.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog also paid tribute.
“He played a huge role in strengthening Israel’s economy, its remarkable resilience, and its strong reputation around the world,” Herzog said. “He was a world-class professional, a man of integrity, with a heart of gold. A true lover of peace.”
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Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Says Israel Blocking Ramallah Meeting Proof of ‘Extremism’
Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud attends a news conference at the Arab Gulf Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, December 9, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Ahmed Yosri
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud said the Israeli government’s refusal to allow a delegation of Arab ministers to the West Bank showed its “extremism and rejection of peace.”
His statement came during a joint press conference in Amman with counterparts from Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain, after they met as part of an Arab contact group that was going to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.
“Israel’s refusal of the committee’s visit to the West Bank embodies and confirms its extremism and refusal of any serious attempts for (a) peaceful pathway… It strengthens our will to double our diplomatic efforts within the international community to face this arrogance,” the Saudi minister said.
On Saturday, Israel said it would not allow a planned meeting on Sunday that would have included ministers from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Palestinian Authority officials said.
Bin Farhan’s visit to the West Bank would have marked the first such visit by a top Saudi official in recent memory.
An Israeli official said the ministers intended to take part in a “provocative meeting” to discuss promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said blocking the trip was another example of how Israel was “killing any chance of a just and comprehensive” Arab-Israeli settlement.
An international conference, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, is due to be held in New York on June 17-20 to discuss the issue of Palestinian statehood.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said the conference would cover security arrangements after a ceasefire in Gaza and reconstruction plans to ensure Palestinians would remain on their land and foil any Israeli plans to evict them.
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