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Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year?
A general view shows the Lebanese capital Beirut during the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah, announced on November 27, 2024, expires, there are many questions about the next steps in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army is delaying its mission to take control of the area south of the Litani River, and Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire period beyond 60 days.
Lack of motivation to resume hostilities
It appears, at least superficially, that Hezbollah’s current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. The organization has been undergoing a process of self-examination in light of its defeat in the campaign it initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, as an act of solidarity with Hamas’ barbaric “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of the day before.
The Shiite organization is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion’s share of the organization’s command and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, the boasting about the great defeat of the “Zionist enemy” rings hollow. It is a facade constructed for domestic purposes and nothing more.
Internalizing the dramatic extent of the damage to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed, both defensive and offensive, has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the order of battle and the array of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for maintaining a “second strike” capability against Israel.
Prior to the decimation of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the extraordinary Israeli intelligence operation of September 17, 2024, involving the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah’s headquarters and field ranks was the beginning of the undermining of its status as the main military entity in Lebanon.
The collapse of the Shiite “axis of evil”
The most severe of the many blows Hezbollah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite “axis of evil” in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hezbollah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems, along with the paralysis of additional strategic facilities on October 26, 2024, dramatically accelerated the undermining of Tehran’s grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
Lebanese sources have noted that President Assad’s relations with Hezbollah and even with the Iranians had cooled even before October 7, 2023. Assad was interested in reducing the Iranians’ scope of action in Syrian territory, as well as in limiting Hezbollah’s activity in his country. It is possible that the clock had already begun to tick toward the disintegration of the “axis of evil.” The possibility cannot be ruled out that covert Israeli contact with Assad through an internet communication channel, the existence of which was recently made public, was a factor in accelerating the unraveling of the Shiite axis.
Hezbollah searches its soul
What is Hezbollah’s leadership pondering at this difficult time? They’re not thinking about establishing a commission of inquiry, of course. First and foremost, Hezbollah has to analyze why the war had such disastrous results from its perspective. It will have to consider the security breaches that allowed Israel to penetrate its frameworks so deeply and redesign its strategic approach to continuing the conflict with Israel. This will require tackling dilemmas concerning both the rebuilding of the military force and the training of new fighters. The group will also have to formulate a plan to rebuild the civilian environment in southern Lebanon, where there is a traditional Shiite majority.
The search for a way forward
Hezbollah’s top brass cannot ignore growing voices within the organization advocating a new approach that stresses the movement’s Lebanese identity. If adopted, such an approach could mean a reduction of the organization’s traditional dependence on Iran and more practical and substantial integration into domestic Lebanese politics.
There is no doubt that the election of Joseph Aoun as president, after a prolonged governmental vacuum, and the placement of Nawaf Salam as a leading candidate for prime minister intensify the constraints on Hezbollah’s path in Lebanon. They also constitute a ringing slap in the face for Iran.
A time of opportunity for the moderate Sunni axis
Iran’s current weakness in the Middle East region lays the foundation for the promotion of a pragmatic Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, with Lebanon potentially the first test case of that geostrategic change.
Although it is too early to eulogize Hezbollah as an influential sub-state organization in Lebanon, it seems that President-elect Aoun’s ambitions to implement “one army for one state” and, by implication, disarming Hezbollah with international support give strong signals about the group’s future. It can be cautiously estimated that it will never again be what it once was.
Constraints on Hezbollah
The Western powers’ involvement, particular the leading role of the United States in shaping the face of a renewed Lebanon, will likely serve as a barrier to Hezbollah’s radical wing, which has not abandoned its aspiration of reestablishing its military power as well as Iranian influence in Lebanon.
Still, for the time being, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will renew fire on Israel. This is undoubtedly a manifestation of the remarkable blow the IDF struck against Hezbollah, which until recently was considered the most powerful terrorist army in the world.
Dr. Raphael Buchnik-Chen is a retired colonel and author of the books Diplomat and Secret Man and The Intelligence Failure and the Yom Kippur Surprise. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Says Direct Nuclear Talks With US Possible Under Suitable Conditions
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a meeting in Ilam, Iran, June 12, 2025. Photo: Iran’s Presidential website/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Iran could hold direct nuclear talks with the United States if conditions are suitable, first Vice President Mohammadreza Aref said on Tuesday, according to state media.
But he said US demands for Tehran to drop uranium enrichment entirely were “a joke.”
A sixth round of talks between Tehran and Washington was suspended following Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June.
Both powers accuse Iran of seeking nuclear weapons, an accusation Tehran has rejected.
“Iran is ready for negotiations under equal conditions in order to safeguard its interests … The Islamic Republic’s stance is in the direction that people want and, should there be suitable conditions, we are even ready for direct talks,” Aref said.
Previous rounds of negotiations, which started in April, were indirect, mediated by Oman. Washington says uranium enrichment in Iran constitutes a pathway to developing nuclear weapons and should be dropped.
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made a controversial statement in favor of resuming negotiations with the US regardless of current levels of distrust.
“You don’t want to talk? Well then, what do you want to do? Do you want to go to war? … Going to talks does not mean we intend to surrender,” he said, adding that such issues should not be “approached emotionally.”
A senior commander of Iran‘s Revolutionary Guards, Aziz Ghazanfari, reacting to Pezeshkian’s comments on Monday, said foreign policy requires discretion, and careless statements by authorities can have serious consequences for the country.
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Australia’s Albanese Says Netanyahu ‘In Denial’ Over Gaza Humanitarian Situation
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks at a Labor party election night event, after local media projected the Labor Party’s victory, on the day of the Australian federal election, in Sydney, Australia, May 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hollie Adams
Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu was “in denial” about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, a day after announcing Australia would recognize a Palestinian state for the first time.
Australia will recognize a Palestinian state at next month’s United Nations General Assembly, Albanese said on Monday, a move that adds to international pressure on Israel after similar announcements from France, Britain, and Canada.
Albanese said on Tuesday the Netanyahu government’s reluctance to listen to its allies contributed to Australia’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state.
“He again reiterated to me what he has said publicly as well, which is to be in denial about the consequences that are occurring for innocent people,” Albanese said in an interview with state broadcaster ABC, recounting a Thursday phone call with Netanyahu discussing the issue.
Australia’s decision to recognize a Palestinian state is conditional on commitments received from the Palestinian Authority, including that Islamist teoor group Hamas would have no involvement in any future state.
Right-leaning opposition leader Sussan Ley said the move, which breaks with long-held bipartisan policy over Israel and the Palestinian territories, risked jeopardizing Australia’s relationship with the United States.
SENTIMENT SHIFT
Albanese said as little as two weeks ago he would not be drawn on a timeline for recognition of a Palestinian state.
His incumbent center-left Labor Party, which won an increased majority at a general election in May, has previously been wary of dividing public opinion in Australia, which has significant Jewish and Muslim minorities.
But the public mood has shifted sharply after Israel said it planned to take military control of Gaza, amid increasing reports of hunger amongst its people.
Israel recently increased the flow of humanitarian supplies into Gaza, after imposing a temporary embargo in an effort to keep them out of the hands of Hamas, which often steals the aid for its own use and sells the rest to civilians at inflated prices. While facilitating the entry of thousands of aid trucks into Gaza, Israeli officials have condemned the UN and other international aid agencies for their alleged failure to distribute supplies, noting much of the humanitarian assistance has been stalled at border crossings or stolen. According to UN data, the vast majority of humanitarian aid entering Gaza is intercepted before reaching its intended civilian recipients.
Nonetheless, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched across Sydney’s Harbour Bridge this month calling for aid deliveries in Gaza.
“This decision is driven by popular sentiment in Australia which has shifted in recent months, with a majority of Australians wanting to see an imminent end to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza,” said Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University.
Opposition leader Ley said the decision was “disrespectful” of key ally the United States, which opposes Palestinian statehood.
“We would never have taken this step because this is completely against what our principles are, which is that recognition, the two state solution, comes at the end of the peace process, not before,” she said in an interview with radio station 2GB.
Neighboring New Zealand has said it is still considering whether to recognize a Palestinian state, a decision that drew sharp criticism from former prime minister Helen Clark on Tuesday.
“This is a catastrophic situation, and here we are in New Zealand somehow arguing some fine point about whether we should recognize we need to be adding our voice to the need for this catastrophe to stop,” she said in an interview with state broadcaster RNZ.
“This is not the New Zealand I’ve known.”
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Iran Says It Arrested 21,000 ‘Suspects’ During 12-Day War With Israel
Rescue personnel work at an impact site following a missile attack from Iran, in Bat Yam, Israel, June 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Iranian police arrested as many as 21,000 “suspects” during the country’s 12–day war with Israel in June, a law enforcement spokesperson said on Tuesday, according to state media.
Following Israeli air strikes that began on June 13, Iranian security forces began a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints and “public reports” whereby citizens were called upon to report on any individuals they thought were acting suspiciously.
“There was a 41 percent increase in calls by the public, which led to the arrest of 21,000 suspects during the 12–day war,” police spokesperson Saeid Montazerolmahdi said. He did not say what those arrested were suspected of, but Tehran has spoken before of people passing on information that may have helped direct the Israeli attacks.
The Israel–Iran conflict has also led to an accelerated rate of deportations for Afghan migrants believed to be illegally in Iran, with aid agencies reporting that local authorities had also accused some Afghan nationals of spying for Israel.
“Law enforcement rounded up 2,774 illegal migrants and discovered 30 special security cases by examining their phones. 261 suspects of espionage and 172 people accused of unauthorized filming were also arrested,” the spokesperson added.
Montazerolmahdi did not specify how many of those arrested had since been released.
He added that Iran‘s police handled more than 5,700 cases of cyber crimes such as online fraud and unauthorised withdrawals during the war, which he said had turned “cyberspace into an important battlefront.”