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Syria’s New Leader Is an Autocrat; Will That Be Good or Bad for Israel and Turkey?
Syria’s newly appointed president for a transitional phase Ahmed al-Sharaa meets Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salam, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Feb. 2, 2025. Photo: Bandar Algaloud Saudi Royal Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS
Islamist or not, Syria’s self-proclaimed interim president, Ahmad Sharaa, seems like he will do anything to keep power.
This is good news and bad news for Sharaa’s two strongest neighbors — Turkey and Israel — whose interests clash in Syria. The Trump administration thinks that the best outcome is to deconflict tensions between the two regional powers. The gap, however, seems unbridgeable.
Ankara wants a strongman protégé in Damascus, whose top priority is to break Kurdish power and autonomy in the northeast. Jerusalem, for its part, has strong ties with Syria’s Kurds and does not want to see others trample on them.
The arbiter here is Washington, which relied heavily on these Kurdish fighters in defeating ISIS and keeping their leaders locked up in prisons under Kurdish supervision.
The US has maintained a minor military presence in Kurdish territories in northeast Syria, which has bolstered the Kurds and helped them wither down one Turkish military offensive after another.
But now that President Trump is in office, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thinks that he can convince Trump to fold, hoping that such an American move would weaken the Kurds and allow pro-Turkish Syrian militias to run over Kurdish territory.
Washington has encouraged the Kurds to sort things out with Damascus, because American troops will not stay forever. Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi has met with Sharaa twice, signing an agreement to “discuss” the unification of their ranks.
But unification is tricky. Sharaa thinks that he is Syria, and that his militia is the national army. He has thus demanded that other militias surrender their arms to his “army.”
The Kurds countered by saying that they are willing to join a national army, but one whose bylaws and structure are agreed upon. The Kurds seek a merger with Sharaa, not a surrender to his militia.
To buy them out, Sharaa has contemplated granting the Kurds their demands: Kurdish battalions in the army, under Kurdish officers, stationed in the northeast, and administrative autonomy. But these Sharaa concessions conflict with Turkey’s demand for absolute surrender, even humiliation, of the Kurds. This is where the interests of Ankara and Sharaa diverge and this is when the Turks might consider supporting Sharaa’s Islamist rivals — such as Abu Amsheh or Hassan al-Dgheim — to take him out and take his place.
Where does Israel stand on this? Jerusalem supports an agreement between the Kurds and Sharaa on Kurdish terms, even if the agreement results in Sharaa becoming Syria’s undisputed autocrat thereafter. Israel, therefore, disagrees drastically with Turkey.
Israel also has other allies in Syria: the Druze in the south. Like the Kurds, the Druze have demanded Druze battalions, under senior Druze officers, stationed in their territory as a guarantee that they will not be subjected to Sharaa’s future possible Islamist tyranny, and to avoid a repeat of past ISIS massacres against them. Granting the Druze, and Israel in general, their demands in the south, is easier for Sharaa than giving the Kurds concessions.
Sharaa, however, has not yet conceded anything to anyone. The Kurds and the Druze, in return, have not surrendered their arms or power. And while Sharaa is busy building his power base in Damascus, both Turkey and Israel have relied on their own forces to protect their interests inside Syria.
Turkey’s Syrian militias have launched a few attacks on the Kurds, all failing and retreating. The Turkish air force has repeatedly struck targets in the landlocked Kurdish enclave.
Israel, for its part, has been more active inside Syria, with its fighter jets policing and striking the remnants of pro-Iran militias, such as Hezbollah, while also making sure to destroy all heavy weapons south of Damascus.
As Turkey and Israel carve their own spheres of influence inside Syria, Syrian national unity becomes elusive. Sharaa’s insatiable appetite for undisputed power makes national reconciliation ever harder.
America has correctly tied lifting of the crippling sanctions it has imposed on the Syrian government, under former President Bashar al-Assad, to Sharaa sharing power with Kurds, Druze, Alawites, and others.
The Europeans have insisted that Sharaa weed out radical Islamists, especially foreign fighters. The interim president has yet to do either. Until he does, an economy in tatters will make rebuilding the state an even more gargantuan task.
To give Sharaa credit where it is due, in his bid to build his dictatorship, he has been responsive in dealing with the different foreign intelligence agencies: Jordanian and Gulf governments commend his cooperation in stopping the narcotics trade, while America praises his crackdown on ISIS. Even Israel has telegraphed to Sharaa its intentions whenever it struck inside Syria. In return, the budding Syrian autocrat has steered clear from bombastic anti-Israel populism.
But is Sharaa’s cooperation enough for a new and better Syria? So far, things do not seem to be on the right track.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. X: @hahussain
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Iran’s Top Diplomat Meets With Russian Officials, Supreme Leader Sends Letter to Putin Ahead of Talks With US
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, March 21, 2025. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Iran’s so-called “supreme leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, briefing Moscow on the ongoing nuclear negotiations between Tehran and the United States.
Khamenei also sent his top diplomat, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to Moscow, where on Thursday he met with Putin and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, to deliver Khamenei’s letter. During their meetings, they discussed Iran’s nuclear program, last week’s US-Iran negotiations in Oman, and efforts to expand bilateral cooperation and address regional developments.
Thursday’s high-level meeting came just days before a second round of talks between Tehran and Washington, scheduled to take place in Rome this weekend.
Since taking office in January, US President Donald Trump has reinstated his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran aimed at cutting the country’s crude exports to zero and preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
However, Tehran has refused to halt its uranium enrichment program, insisting that the country’s right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable.
Last month, Trump threatened to bomb Iran and impose secondary tariffs if the country does not reach an agreement with Washington to curb its nuclear program.
Russia has said that any military strike against Iran would be “illegal and unacceptable.” As an increasingly close ally of Tehran, Moscow plays a crucial role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the West, leveraging its position as a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council and a signatory to a now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal that imposed limits on the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will continue to assist in resolving the conflict between the two adversaries.
“The Russian Federation remains ready to do everything within our capabilities to contribute to the settlement of the situation by political and diplomatic means,” Peskov said in a statement.
During his first term, Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal — known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — between Iran and several world powers, which had imposed temporary limits on Tehran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting harsh, long-standing economic penalties on the Islamist regime in Tehran.
“Regarding the nuclear issue, we always had close consultations with our friends China and Russia. Now it is a good opportunity to do so with Russian officials,” Araghchi told Iranian state media before his meeting in Moscow.
On Tuesday, US special envoy Steve Witkoff said that any deal with Iran must require the complete dismantling of its “nuclear enrichment and weaponization program — reversing his earlier comments, in which he indicated that the White House would allow Iran to enrich uranium to a 3.67 percent threshold for a “civil nuclear program.”
Although Iran has denied wanting to develop a nuclear weapon, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has raised concerns over Tehran’s rapid acceleration of uranium enrichment.
The IAEA warned that Iran is enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent weapons-grade level and enough to build six nuclear bombs.
Despite Tehran’s claims that its nuclear program is solely for civilian purposes rather than weapon development, Western states have said there is no “credible civilian justification” for the country’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
Russia’s diplomatic role in the US-Iran nuclear talks could be crucial, as Moscow has recently solidified its growing partnership with the Iranian regime.
On Wednesday, Russia’s upper house of parliament ratified a 20-year strategic partnership agreement with Iran, strengthening military ties between the two countries.
Signed by Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in January, the Strategic Cooperation Treaty will boost collaboration between the two countries in areas such as security services, military drills, warship port visits, and joint officer training.
Iran’s Ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, said this agreement “stands as one of the most significant achievements in Tehran-Moscow relations.”
“One of the most important commonalities between the two countries is the deep wounds inflicted by the West’s unrestrained unilateralism, which underscores the necessity for broader cooperation in the future,” Jalali told Iranian state media this week.
Under the agreement, neither country will permit its territory to be used for actions that pose a threat to the other, nor will they provide assistance to any aggressor targeting either nation. However, this pact does not include a mutual defense clause of the kind included in a treaty between Russia and North Korea.
The agreement also includes cooperation in arms control, counterterrorism, peaceful nuclear energy, and security coordination at both regional and global levels.
Iran’s growing ties with Moscow come at a time when Tehran is facing increasing sanctions by the US, particularly on its oil industry.
Last year, Iran obtained observer membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. The free trade agreement between Tehran and the union’s member states, set to take effect next month, will eliminate customs tariffs on over 80 percent of traded goods between Iran and Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.
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Hamas Rejects Israeli Interim Truce Offer, Says Will Only Release Remaining Hostages for End to Gaza War
Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, stand near a screen displaying senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya during a rally to show support to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen, Oct. 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Hamas wants a comprehensive deal to end the war in Gaza and swap all Israeli hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel, a senior official from the Palestinian terrorist group said, rejecting Israel‘s offer of an interim truce.
In a televised speech, Khalil Al-Hayya, the group’s Gaza chief who leads its negotiating team, said the Iran-backed Islamist group would no longer agree to interim deals, adopting a position that Israel is unlikely to accept and potentially further delaying an end to the conflict.
Instead, Hayya said Hamas was ready to immediately engage in “comprehensive package negotiations” to release all remaining hostages in its custody in return for an end to the Gaza war, the release of Palestinians jailed by Israel, and the reconstruction of Gaza.
“Netanyahu and his government use partial agreements as a cover for their political agenda, which is based on continuing the war of extermination and starvation, even if the price is sacrificing all his prisoners [hostages],” said Hayya, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“We will not be part of passing this policy.”
Egyptian mediators have been working to revive the January ceasefire agreement that halted fighting in Gaza before it broke down last month, but there has been little sign of progress with both Israel and Hamas blaming each other.
“Hamas’s comments demonstrate they are not interested in peace but perpetual violence. The terms made by the Trump administration have not changed: release the hostages or face hell,” said US National Security Council spokesperson James Hewitt.
The latest round of talks on Monday in Cairo to restore the ceasefire and free Israeli hostages ended with no apparent breakthrough, Palestinian and Egyptian sources said.
Israel had proposed a 45-day truce in Gaza to allow hostage releases and potentially begin indirect talks to end the war. Hamas has already rejected one of its conditions – that it lay down its arms. In his speech, Hayya accused Israel of offering a counterproposal with “impossible conditions.”
Hamas released 38 hostages under a ceasefire that began on Jan. 19. In March, Israel‘s military resumed its ground and aerial offensive in Gaza, after Hamas rejected proposals to extend the truce without ending the war.
Israeli officials say that the offensive will continue until the remaining 59 hostages are freed and Gaza is demilitarized. Hamas insists it will free hostages only as part of a deal to end the war and has rejected demands to lay down its arms.
The war was triggered by Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage to Gaza.
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US Says Chinese Satellite Firm Supporting Houthi Attacks on American Interests
A Houthi fighter mans a machine gun mounted on a truck during a parade for people who attended Houthi military training as part of a mobilization campaign, in Sanaa, Yemen, Dec. 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
The US State Department on Thursday accused a Chinese firm, Chang Guang Satellite Technology, of directly supporting attacks on US interests by Iran-backed Houthi fighters and called this “unacceptable.”
Earlier, the Financial Times cited US officials as saying that the satellite company, linked to China’s military, was supplying Houthi rebels with imagery to target US warships and international vessels in the Red Sea.
“We can confirm the reporting that Chang Guang Satellite Technology Company Limited is directly supporting Iran-backed Houthi terrorist attacks on US interests,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told a regular news briefing.
“China consistently attempts … to frame itself as a global peacemaker … however, it is clear that Beijing and China-based companies provide key economic and technical support to regimes like Russia, North Korea and Iran and its proxies,” she said.
Bruce said the assistance by the firm to the Houthis, a US-designated terrorist group, had continued even though the United States had engaged with Beijing on the issue.
“The fact that they continue to do this is unacceptable,” she said.
The spokesperson for China’s Washington embassy, Liu Pengyu, said he was not familiar with the situation, so had no comment. The firm did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
China is Washington’s main strategic rival, and the latest charge comes as the two economic and military superpowers are in a major standoff over trade in which US President Donald Trump has dramatically ramped up tariffs on Chinese goods.
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