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The Window of Opportunity for Israeli Security May Be Closing

A mobile artillery unit fires towards Gaza near the border, in Israel, Sept. 28, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen

For a moment, after two years of war, Israel stood atop the Middle East.

In early October, Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage return in accordance with President Trump’s 20-point peace plan.

Recovering from the national gut-punch inflicted by Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre, Israel smashed the Iranian-led “ring of resistance” around the Jewish State. There was a new regime in Syria, Hezbollah and Iran had been severely weakened, and the Houthis had also suffered setbacks. Optimists in Jerusalem and Washington hoped the Israelis and Saudis would resume a diplomatic reconciliation, extending Trump’s first-term Abraham Accords.

The war confirmed Israel as America’s “fantastic ally,” according to foreign policy analyst Walter Russell Mead. But, he noted, America also believed it needed to take a more active role in the country. Hence America’s new military monitoring center in Israel.

Unfortunately, what looked like an open window of opportunity for an Israeli-improved Middle East might be closing. Consider this:

Trump’s plan contained two important aims: Disarmament of Hamas, and a post-war Gaza free of the jihadists’ dominance.

However, less than a week after signing the ceasefire, Hamas insisted it would neither disarm nor abandon a leading political role. If so, only the IDF, not Trump’s envisioned international security force, could enforce the edict that Hamas be dismantled.

The US-written United Nations Security Council Resolution 2803, passed on November 18, was intended to advance Washington’s 20-point plan. Yet it contained a poisoned pill not only for Israel, but also its neighbors. The measure says that if demilitarization by non-state groups (Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, etc.) and reforms by the corrupt Palestinian Authority (PA) occur, “conditions may be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”

The PA, however, incessantly violates its “peace process” commitments. It continues its “pay-for-slay” subsidies to terrorists and their families, incites murder against civilians, and its mosques, communications media, and schools incessantly spew hatred of Jews and their state. And a majority of Palestinians still support Hamas.

This means that any future state run by the PA or Hamas would still support violence against Jews — thus destabilizing Israel and the entire region.

The 2020 Abraham Accords reportedly proceeded with Saudi Arabia’s tacit blessing. One reason given for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led slaughter was to derail movement toward mutual Jerusalem-Riyadh recognition. That recognition was ostensibly contingent on a pathway to Palestinian Arab statehood.

After Trump’s recent meeting with Saudi’s Crown Prince, improved US-Saudi ties are to include sales of America’s most advanced fighter plane, the F-35, to Riyadh, and investment in the United States of up to $1 trillion in funds from the Kingdom. Though Washington is committed legally to maintaining Israel’s military qualitative edge, supplying the stealth combat aircraft to Riyadh before the latter recognizes Israel causes concern.

Although Trump still appears to support Netanyahu and Israel, the same can’t be said of all Republicans. And majorities of Democratic senators have voted to withhold key weapons from Israel. Among Republicans, a neo-isolationist, antisemitic minority grows louder. Hence, Netanyahu’s call to expand Israel’s home-grown arms industries.

Internally, there are also matters to resolve.

The Israel Defense Forces, staffed by so many mobilized reservists, needs a break. The economy needs its citizen-soldiers back at work. And the country needs its draft-deferred ultra-Orthodox — nearly 20 percent of the Jewish population — to join both the military manpower pool and civilian workforce. Yet the issue remains domestically explosive.  

And the political atmosphere needs to be cleared. Elections are due by next October. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, should not obstruct but rather enable a commission of inquiry into the failures that preceded the October 7 invasion.

With all of these challenges facing Israel, the country might not be as secure as it seems.

Eric Rozenman retired last year as communications consultant for the Washington, D.C.-based Jewish Policy Center. He is author, most recently, of The David Discovery, A Novel of the Near Future.   

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Syrian Government, Kurds Agree to Integration Deal, US Hails ‘Historic Milestone’

Members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) queue to settle their status with Syrian government in Raqqa, Syria, Jan. 27, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

The Syrian government and Kurdish forces declared a ceasefire deal on Friday that sets out a phased integration of Kurdish fighters into the state, averting a potentially bloody battle and drawing US praise for a “historic milestone.”

The sides announced the deal after government forces under President Ahmed al-Sharaa captured swathes of northern and eastern Syria from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group this month. This forced the Kurdish forces to retreat into a shrinking enclave in the northeast.

The fate of the SDF, which took over a quarter or more of Syria during its 2011-24 civil war, has been one of the biggest issues looming over Syria since Islamist insurgents led by Sharaa toppled President Bashar al-Assad 14 months ago.

US envoy Tom Barrack, who has been closely involved in mediation efforts, declared Friday’s accord “a profound and historic milestone in Syria’s journey toward national reconciliation, unity, and enduring stability.”

The SDF was once Washington’s main Syrian ally, playing a vital part in the fight against Islamic State terrorists. But its position grew weaker as President Donald Trump built close ties with Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who has now brought almost all of Syria back under the authority of Damascus.

US ENVOY PRAISES ‘COURAGEOUS STEPS’

Under the agreement, forces that had massed along front lines in the north would pull back and Interior Ministry security forces would deploy to the center of the cities of Hasakah and Qamishli in the northeast, both now held by the SDF.

The agreement includes the formation of a military division that will include three SDF brigades, in addition to a brigade for forces in the SDF-held town of Kobani, also known as Ain al-Arab, which will be affiliated to the governorate of Aleppo.

The Syrian official said the military division in the northeast would include “groups from the SDF within brigades, alongside other brigades.”

Governing bodies set up by the Kurdish-led groups in the northeast are to be merged with state institutions. But Elham Ahmad, a senior Kurdish official, told reporters via an interpreter that they would retain the co-chair system developed under autonomy-minded Kurdish authorities, with one male director and one female director.

Damascus and the SDF first struck an integration deal last March, but made scant progress toward implementation before a year-end deadline, paving the way for the government offensive.

“Both sides have taken courageous steps: the Syrian government in extending meaningful inclusion and rights, and the Kurdish communities in embracing a unified framework that honors their contributions while advancing the common good,” Barrack said.

Kurds have been on high alert for a potential government thrust into their remaining enclave, mindful of last year’s violence against minority Alawites and Druze.

Noah Bonsey, senior adviser with the International Crisis Group think tank, said the deal was “a potentially historic turning point” that appeared to lay out a middle ground for both sides.

“It spares northeast Syria what could have been a really ugly military showdown. Implementation will be tricky. There are a lot of challenges ahead,” he said.

Turkey said it was scrutinizing the agreement. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said “genuine integration is in Syria’s interest, and the parties are already aware of its conditions.”

Turkey has sent forces into Syria several times since 2016, deeming the SDF an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which took up arms against the Turkish state in 1984 but began a peace process with Ankara in 2025.

UNIFYING SYRIAN TERRITORY

Ahmad, the Kurdish official, said France and the United States should establish a mechanism to ensure the deal is implemented correctly, citing fears it could be derailed by “spoilers,” without specifying further.

Syrian officials said on Friday they feared figures within the PKK who reject the deal would not abide by the ceasefire.

An SDF statement said the deal “aims to unify Syrian territory and achieve full integration in the region.” The Syrian government shared an almost identical statement with Reuters.

A senior Syrian government official told Reuters the deal was final and had been reached late on Thursday night, and that implementation was to begin immediately.

The statements did not address control of the last remaining SDF-controlled border crossing to northern Iraq, known as Semalka. The Syrian official said the Syrian state would take over all border crossings.

Ahmad said Semalka border officials would be integrated into the central state but that more discussions would need to be held with Damascus.

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US Imposes Sanctions on Iran’s Interior Minister, Businessman

USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, Sept. 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni and a businessman it said helped launder money for Tehran, as President Donald Trump’s administration ramps up pressure on the Islamic Republic.

The Department of the Treasury, announcing the move, said Momeni was responsible for a brutal security crackdown in Iran this month as he oversees law enforcement forces it said were responsible for the deaths of thousands of peaceful protesters.

Trump has in recent weeks issued threats to intervene in Iran over the bloody suppression of the protests and has sent warships to the Middle East, even as he has said he plans to talk with the government there.

The financial sanctions on Friday also targeted five other Iranian security officials involved in “violently repressing the Iranian people,” the Treasury said in a statement.

Sanctions were also issued against investor Babak Zanjani and two digital asset exchanges registered in Britain that the Treasury said had processed funds linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US would continue to target Iranian elites and their networks, who he said exploit digital assets to evade sanctions and finance cybercriminal operations.

“Like rats on a sinking ship, the regime is frantically wiring funds stolen from Iranian families to banks and financial institutions around the world. Rest assured, Treasury will act,” Bessent said in the statement.

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US Slows Transfers of Islamic State Detainees to Iraq, Sources Say

Syrian security forces stand guard outside al-Aqtan prison, where some Islamic State detainees are held, in Raqqa, Syria, Jan. 23, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

Transfers of Islamic State detainees from Syria to Iraq by the US military have slowed this week, seven sources familiar with the matter said, following calls by Baghdad for other countries to repatriate thousands of foreign jihadists.

The US military said on Jan. 21 it had started to transfer the detainees. Its announcement followed the rapid collapse of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, which caused uncertainty about the security of prisons and detention camps they were guarding.

The United States had expected to transfer up to 7,000 fighters to Iraq within days. But more than a week later, only about 500 have been moved, according to two Iraqi judicial officials, two Iraqi security officials, and three diplomats, some from countries whose nationals are among those transferred.

An Iraqi foreign ministry official put the number at under 500 so far.

Baghdad asked the US to slow the influx to make time for negotiations with other countries on repatriating their own nationals among the detainees and to prepare additional facilities to host the fighters, the Iraqi officials and a Western diplomat told Reuters.

Those moved to Iraqi facilities so far include about 130 Iraqis and some 400 foreigners, the Iraqi judicial sources, the Iraqi security officials and a Western diplomat said.

The slowdown, which has not previously been reported, is linked to Western governments’ reservations about bringing home their own citizens who joined the Islamic State‘s brutal self-declared caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq from 2014.

Most foreign fighters were subsequently captured in Syria and held in prisons in the northeast for years without trial.

The US State Department and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment on the transfers.

IRAQ BALKS AT MASS TRANSFER

Iraq agreed to host the detainees being moved by the US military after a brief escape by dozens of fighters from one facility in Syria prompted concerns that more could flee, Iraqi government officials said.

But although it has already tried and sentenced dozens of foreign fighters in recent years, Baghdad balked at the prospect of having the full 7,000 in its custody, the officials said.

The influx could overwhelm Iraq’s courts and prisons, and sentencing detainees to death would prompt criticism from Western countries and rights groups, they said.

“It’s a trap,” one of the senior Iraqi judicial sources said. “These Western countries object to the death penalty, but refuse to receive their terrorists. Why should we bear the burden of being seen as the butcher?”

Responding to questions from Reuters, Hisham al-Alawi, Undersecretary of Iraq‘s Foreign Ministry for Political Planning, said fewer than 500 detainees had been transferred to Iraq so far.

“For years, Iraq has been urging foreign states to assume their responsibilities by taking back their citizens and dealing with them in accordance with their own laws. While some countries have taken the initiative, a large number of states have not responded to our requests,” Alawi said.

The dilemma of what to do with foreign nationals who joined Islamic State has plagued Western countries for the last decade.

Securing guilty verdicts against such detainees in their home countries could be harder than in Iraq, said four diplomats from countries whose nationals were captured in Syria, citing a greater need to prove direct participation in violent crimes.

Governments in such countries could face a public backlash if Islamic State fighters were repatriated and then freed, the diplomats said.

The return of an Islamic State-linked woman to Norway in 2020 caused a cabinet crisis that ultimately brought down the government.

As a result of Western nations’ hesitations, thousands of foreign fighters detained in Syria and Iraq remained there for nearly a decade – even though the US, which repatriated and tried its nationals, urged other countries to do the same.

REPATRIATION THE ONLY ANSWER, EXPERT SAYS

The senior Iraqi judicial source said Baghdad was working with the US State Department on increasing pressure on other countries to begin repatriations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after transfers had begun that foreign Islamic State members would be in Iraq temporarily. “The United States urges countries to take responsibility and repatriate their citizens in these facilities to face justice,” he said.

Two diplomats from countries with nationals now in Iraq said their governments faced an uncomfortable choice between repatriation – which would be unpopular domestically – and the possibility that their nationals would face the death penalty if tried in Iraq, an outcome that could outrage voters at home.

One of the diplomats said Baghdad had begun conversations with their country about repatriations but that their government’s policy was unchanged.

“It would be difficult for us to accept that they are transferred to Iraq if they are then going to get their head chopped off,” the second diplomat said.

Letta Tayler, an associate fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, said the mass transfer of detainees to Iraq “has mind-boggling legal implications, none of them positive.”

It could prolong their indefinite detention without trial and place detainees at risk of torture and executions based on flawed convictions, Tayler said. The US has raised concerns about unfair trials of Islamic State detainees in Iraq.

“The only viable solution is for countries with fair justice systems to repatriate their nationals,” Tayler said.

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