Jewish history is a spin cycle of darkness and disaster. Wait long enough and trouble will come around.

Predicting doom and gloom for the Jewish people is about as shocking as an Los Angeles weather reporter forecasting hot summers and mild winters.

What’s more surprising: the Prophets we study hedged their warnings with hope. If the people followed the correct path — if they, so to speak, did the work — God would come through. Isaiah, for instance, ended a jeremiad about the ills that might afflict the Jews with a vision of a brighter future: “While you have been forsaken and hated,” he said, “I will make you an eternal excellence, a joy of many generations.”

In that spirit, here are my reasons for Jewish optimism in the coming year:

1. The Gaza ceasefire is still tenuous, but holding

We enter 2026 with something that seemed far off in January 2025: the return of all but one of the hostages amid a ceasefire after two years of war. (The remains of Ran Gvili are still in Gaza.)

Neither Israel nor Hamas appears particularly eager to make the sacrifices necessary to proceed to the second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve Hamas disarmament, further Israeli withdrawal and the deployment of an international peacekeeping force. But successful Mideast diplomacy has always depended on American engagement, and judging by the meeting this week in Florida between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the American president is still engaged.

Trump’s pressure and leverage, especially with Turkey and Qatar, who have sway over Hamas, could help push the sides toward the next step.

Success would increase the likelihood of a Saudi-Israeli accord, which would be a true Middle East game changer.

“A deal with Saudi Arabia could remake the Middle East and Israel’s place in it,” former diplomat Nimrod Novik recently told The New York Times. “Saudi Arabia doesn’t come alone. It’s a whole list of countries that follow, once the Saudis put a kosher stamp on Israel: Indonesia, Malaysia, maybe even Kuwait and Oman — who knows?”

2. In Israel, a grassroots awakening

A new generation of grassroots Israeli movements and leaders has emerged since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023.

Now, they may help reshape Israel’s political landscape. New centrist parties like Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Yoav Hendel’s Reservist Party have emerged to challenge Netanyahu’s divisive leadership. Two weeks ago, Einav Zangauker, who protested daily for the release of the hostages, among them her son Matan Zangauker, said she may enter electoral politics.

And while election polls still show that Israel suffers from deep social and political rifts, one finding of a recent Israel Democracy Institute survey gives me hope: 71% of Israelis say “it’s important for Israel to have a Constitution” — a document the country has lacked since its founding.

“The biggest threat to long-term stability in Israel,” wrote the institute’s founder, Arye Carmon, “is the lack of a national constitution to provide a foundation on which to guarantee stability and define Jewishness in the ‘Jewish and Democratic.’”

As religious, tribal and political forces pull the country apart, it’s hopeful that a consensus exists to keep it together.

3. In the United States, a continuing Jewish revitalization

The post-Oct. 7 surge that has brought American Jews deeper into Jewish life shows no sign of ebbing in 2026. Synagogue, camp and day school enrollments are up, as is Jewish involvement across the board. A recent national survey found that 72% of people who became more deeply engaged in Jewish life after Hamas’ 2023 attack are “still engaging more today through community, learning and personal relationships.”

At a time when Americans are suffering from an epidemic of over-digitized isolation, American Jews are seeking and finding actual, real life community.

How that looks can vary wildly: increased donations to Jewish causes, overt displays of pride and belonging, activism, adult b’nai mitzvah classes or a packed Brooklyn “Sinners’ Shabbat” with burlesque dancers and drag queens. In all ways, it’s a resurgence that can only strengthen our identity.

4. The calmer the conflict, the safer our streets

Violent antisemitic attacks have grown in frequency and ferocity in the past six months — witness Washington, D.C., Boulder and Bondi Beach.

But the numbers of overall antisemitic attacks have fallen off. Antisemitic hate crimes fell by more than 50% in New York City in early 2025, reflecting an international decrease and a sharp decline in global antisemitism since post-Oct. 7 highs. That isn’t surprising. “There is no more important factor in explaining variation in antisemitic hate crimes in this country than Israel being engaged in a particularly violent military operation,” said Professor Ayal Feinberg, whose 2019 study looked at the correlation between the 2014 Gaza War and antisemitic violence.

If Hamas and Israel can enter the second ceasefire phase, the world’s anti-Israel demonstraters will be faced with the dissonant reality of Israel working with Arab and Turkish neighbors to rebuild Gaza. I’d like to see the protest signs objecting to that.

5, Jews have allies, and antisemites just have X

I suspect that other noxious forms of antisemitism — like podcaster Tucker Carlson hosting Nazi fanboys, or Candace Owens spouting Jew-hating conspiracy theories — will continue to do more to splinter the Republican party than unite it.

We’ve seen that happening already. Jewish and non-Jewish members of the Heritage Foundation resigned when its director refused to distance himself from Carlson. Ben Shapiro threw a wrench into the Turning Point USA convention by declaring a red line against bigots and Holocaust deniers.

A disturbing number of MAGA leaders equivocated — here’s looking at you, Vice President JD Vance — but others like Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw and Sen. Ted Cruz spoke against the hatemongers.

The not-so-coded antisemitism that many of us have long warned infests MAGA, and that Trump has long both denied and winked at, is now out in the sunlight, which, counterintuitively, may not be a bad thing. For Jewish Republicans, it’s clarifying to know where their so-called friends stand, and who their real allies are.

And while X and Discord may be a safe space for antisemites, American themselves have historically proven to be less accepting of the oldest hatred. Let’s hope — actively — it stays that way.

Granted, these five points come with caveats. The contrary voices in my head are loud: Hamas or Israel could sabotage the ceasefire. Iran and Israel could renew hostilities. Tucker Carlson could become a future President J.D. Vance’s Secretary of State. A.I. could unleash a flood of hate bots and deep fakes that will swarm common sense. Like I said, the safe money is on doom.

But when the prophets’ hopeful visions always came with a hitch — a better future depends on what you do now, in the present.

The question isn’t what gives you hope, but what future are you willing to work for?

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