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A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement on Friday, July 19, that Gaza ceasefire talks are “inside the 10-yard line” raised hope (again) for an end to the 9-month Israel-Hamas conflict.
Overlooked in the excitement about a possible ceasefire, however, is the impact that it will have on Israel’s other nine-month conflict. The achievement of a ceasefire in Gaza places Israel in a challenging predicament vis-à-vis its conflict with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, and creates other problems if the ceasefire allows Hamas to stay in power.
On October 8, Hezbollah launched an unprovoked attack on Israel. The attack started an almost daily cycle of violence. Hezbollah launches a barrage of rockets, missiles, or drones at northern Israel — the latest being the attack on Majdal Shams that claimed the lives of 12 children. Israel then responds by shooting them down, targeting the launch areas, and attempting to thwart future attacks by killing militia members and destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression is an attempt to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has linked their violence in northern Israel to the Israeli violence in Gaza. The militia declared their attacks to be an act of solidarity with Hamas, and the Palestinians of Gaza. Despite mounting casualties and the gradual degradation of its capabilities by Israel, the militia remains undeterred. Hezbollah’s leadership repeatedly vows to continue their attacks until Israel ends its operations in Gaza. In other words, northern Israel will not experience quiet until the people of Gaza experience quiet.
Although a ceasefire in Gaza would be a welcome development, it would produce a problematic outcome for Israel along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah would be empowered. It would survive its assault on Israel just as Hamas presumably would. And a dangerous precedent would be created.
By virtue of a Gaza ceasefire, Hezbollah would suspend its operations against Israel. The suspension of aggression via the ceasefire allows Hezbollah to claim a victory of sorts. The militia did not succumb to Israeli attacks; rather, it maintained solidarity with Gaza until Israel was “forced” to agree to a ceasefire.
A Gaza ceasefire allows Hezbollah to go unpunished for attacking Israel. An unpunished Hezbollah is an undeterred Hezbollah. An undeterred Hezbollah believes in its actions from the last nine months — that they succeeded, and can and will work in the future. The militia will expand its weapons stockpiles, further entrench itself along the Israeli border, and continue to insert itself into future outbreaks of violence between Israel and Palestinians. And when conflict breaks out again between Israel and Palestinian factions in the West Bank or Gaza, Hezbollah will attack northern Israel again and declare it another act of solidarity.
A Gaza ceasefire enables Hezbollah to inform the future dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The militia can influence the scope and its intensity. Going forward, Israel can expect to fight on not one but two fronts (Palestinian areas and against Hezbollah). Israel will have to make additional calculations and preparations every time it engages Palestinian elements, because of Hezbollah’s linkage to the conflict.
A Gaza ceasefire also aids Hezbollah’s long-term objective.
The terrorist militia envisions a Middle East without Israel. The willingness of the militia to continue to insert itself into the fighting between Israel and Hamas is not just about ending the fighting and alleviating the suffering of the Palestinians. Hezbollah’s intervention is also about making Israel increasingly unlivable. Hezbollah wants to squeeze the life and prosperity out of Israel. And, of course, Hezbollah is funded by Iran, which makes Israel’s eradication one of its primary missions.
Hezbollah’s aggression is intended to make Israelis leave the area. They believe that over time, an atmosphere of insecurity and disruption will become more pronounced and affect a growing number of Israelis. As the quality of life in Israel suffers, intolerance for the status quo will grow. Slowly citizens might begin to abandon Israel. Eventually, parts of Israel could resemble little more than a military outpost manned by soldiers in a hostile environment.
The last nine months foreshadowed Hezbollah’s long-term objective. Tens of thousands of Israelis from northern Israel have endured extended displacement, and some residents have relocated. Displacement for some will endure after Israel announced on July 24 the postponement of the upcoming school year in areas located near the Israeli-Lebanese border. Businesses in northern Israel have slowed or closed due to a lack of labor, consumers, and insecurity. The circumstances have harmed the quality of life in northern Israel, and Israel’s overall economy.
And if Israel responds more forcefully to these rocket attacks and prevents Hezbollah from seeing the past nine months as a victory, that will be another public relations headache for Israel. Israel already encounters criticism and pressure for its alleged “transgressions” of international law in Gaza. The criticism and pressure will be compounded by taking offensive action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israeli relations with Europe, Canada, and elements of the US Democratic Party will experience further strain. Europe, Canada, and some Democrats view the absence of violence produced by a ceasefire as the forerunner to security and co-existence. But that is delusional thinking.
Hezbollah is not interested in recognizing Israel, and living side by side with it. The liberal and progressive elements in Europe, Canada, and the United States fail to take seriously the absolutist objectives espoused by Hezbollah, the militia’s ongoing actions, and the growing threat it poses to Israel.
It is in the interests of Israel to keep the Hamas-Palestinian conflict as separate as possible from its conflict with Hezbollah. Failure to do so complicates an already challenging situation. Under the current circumstances, the much-discussed and anticipated ceasefire in Gaza creates a catch 22 for Israel in its dealings with Hezbollah.
Eric Bordenkircher, Ph.D., is a research fellow at UCLA’s Center for Middle East Development. He tweets at @UCLA_Eagle. The views represented in this piece are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of UCLA or the Center for Middle East Development.
The post A Ceasefire in Gaza Could Lead to an Even Greater Threat From Hezbollah first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Indigo wants the law to block an online boycott promotion that appropriates bookstore branding
Canadian bookstore chain Indigo is seeking a court injunction ordering internet service providers to block a website that the company says causes the brand “irreparable harm,” while also infringing on its copyright and trademark. Indigo’s lawyers appeared in a virtual Federal Court hearing Sept. 17 to ask a judge for an injunction that would order […]
The post Indigo wants the law to block an online boycott promotion that appropriates bookstore branding appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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‘F—king Jews’: Protester Interrupts Hate Crimes Hearing at US Capitol Over Focus on Antisemitism
An anti-Israel agitator on Tuesday unleashed an antisemitic tirade during a congressional hearing in Washington, DC on rising hate crimes across the United States.
The US Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing to address growing numbers of attacks against minority religious and ethnic groups in the United States. While Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) delivered a presentation condemning anti-Israel protests on college campuses, an angry demonstrator stood up and hurled expletives targeted at the Jewish community.
“F—king Jews and the Israelis themselves!” the man shouted, apparently frustrated and angry at Cruz for focusing on the deluge of reported antisemitic attacks following Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel.
“Talk about the 40,000 [casualties in Gaza]. Talk about all these people. Why is [this presentation] about antisemitism? F—k the law,” the agitator said before being escorted out by Capitol Police.
“We now have a demonstration of antisemitism. We have a demonstration of the hate,” Cruz responded.
Cruz then slammed Democrats for exhibiting what he described as weakness on antisemitism and vowed to punish antisemites if Republicans secure a Senate majority and the presidency in November. He accused the Biden administration and the US Justice Department of turning a “blind eye” to antisemitism.
“I’ll tell you this. Next year, if there’s a Republican majority on this committee, you will see real leadership. Next year, if there’s a Republican administration, you will see people prosecuted for this sort of violence,” Cruz said.
Senate Republicans criticized Democrats for insisting on broadening the scope of the hearing from antisemitism to a “generic” discussion about all forms of bigotry. Some critics pointed out that Democrats previously condemned use of the phrase “All Lives Matter” in lieu of “Black Lives Matter,” accusing conservatives of attempting to minimize anti-black racism.
Earlier in the hearing, US Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), chair of the Judiciary Committee, defended shifting the focus of the meeting off antisemitism specifically, stating that “prioritizing which group is being discriminated against the worst” is not a “valid exercise of [the committee’s] authority.” He went on to argue that hatred is a problem “that extends beyond the Jewish population” and also affects “the Arab population” and “the Palestinian population.”
Progressive lawmakers have been under fire from pro-Israel voices in the months following the Hamas atrocities of Oct. 7 for allegedly being too soft on Hamas and placing unrealistic restrictions on Israel’s war effort in Gaza. Recent polling suggests that large swaths of Democratic voters have soured on Israel, with many supporting the implementation of an arms embargo on the Jewish state. Younger Democrats, in particular, are reporting significantly greater sympathy for Palestinians than the citizens of Israel. Many Democratic staffers have also reportedly revolted against party officials, demanding that they adopt a more adversarial posture against Israel.
In response, Democratic elected officials have sharpened their rhetoric against the Jewish state, with some suggesting that Israel has committed a “genocide” in Gaza. Democratic politicians have also sought to pressure US President Joe Biden to withhold certain weapons from Israel.
Tuesday’s hearing came amid a record surge in antisemitism across the US since Oct. 7.
The post ‘F—king Jews’: Protester Interrupts Hate Crimes Hearing at US Capitol Over Focus on Antisemitism first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israeli Cyber Expert: Explosives Planted in Hezbollah Pagers in Op Planned Months Before War
An Israeli cyber and national security expert has claimed that the exploding pagers carried by Hezbollah members in Lebanon, which left thousands wounded and killed at least nine people on Tuesday, were part of a sophisticated attack that was planned at least half a year before the war in Gaza erupted.
Dr. Eyal Pinko, a former navy commander and senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, dismissed theories that the blasts were caused by lithium batteries that were hacked to become overheated, and said that the nature of the wounds seen in footage emerging from Lebanon was consistent with those caused by explosives such as TNT and HTB.
“To get this kind of wound you need to have between one to two grams of type of explosives, which is not a big technological issue — you just need to open the beeper,” Pinko said during a briefing with reporters on Tuesday evening. He added that a stable explosive that wouldn’t detonate accidentally would have been inserted into the device, along with a small control mechanism capable of receiving remote commands via a call or page.
Such an operation would have required significant infiltration of Hezbollah’s communication systems, according to Pinko, and planting explosives in pagers would necessitate a serious breach of the supply chain. “This is an intelligence operation that was very well planned, prepared for more than one and a half years,” Pinko said
Pinko alluded to the possibility of a coordinated effort, suggesting that Israel may not have acted alone if it was behind the attack in Lebanon, where Hezbollah wields significant political and military clout. He noted efforts by Germany, France, the US, and the UK to prevent escalation in the region.
Israel has so far been quiet about the explosions, but senior Lebanese officials have blame the Jewish state. So too has Hezbollah, which said Israel would receive “its fair punishment.”
The operation clearly appeared to serve as a message to Hezbollah, showcasing vulnerabilities in its security apparatus and serving as a form of deterrence, Pinko said. “It’s saying that, ‘you’re already being penetrated. We know where you are and what you do. Now look what we can do: In one single shot, in less than a second, we can eliminate almost 3,000 terror operatives.’”
Meanwhile, Sky News Arabia quoted an Israeli military source as saying that Hezbollah’s supply chain was infiltrated with the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence agency, placing PETN, a highly explosive stable material, on the batteries of the devices.
A source close to Hezbollah, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that the pagers were “sabotaged at the source” before being imported by Hezbollah, an Iran-backed terrorist organization based in Lebanon.
Al Jazeera said that the pagers had been in use by Hezbollah operatives for five months.
Brigadier General (res) Amir Avivi, founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF), told The Algemeiner that the attack “had the Mossad’s fingerprints all over it.”
“Hezbollah certainly got the message,” Avivi said, adding that war between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group was “imminent.”
However, Pinko said that Tuesday’s coordinated attacks were not a prelude to a full ground invasion into Lebanon and that Israel was likely to adopt a “wait and see” approach. “Israel doesn’t want to go towards further escalation; not in the north, and not with the Houthis in Yemen. They just want to finish the business in Gaza.”
The explosions came hours after a revelation by the Israeli Shin Bet security agency that a Hezbollah cell had infiltrated Israel with the intent to assassinate a former senior defense official in Tel Aviv using a mobile phone, camera, and remote detonation.
Hezbollah has fired barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones at northern Israel almost daily following the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists on the Jewish state’s southern region. Since then, both sides have been exchanging fire constantly while avoiding a major escalation as war rages in Gaza to the south.
About 80,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate their homes in northern Israel and flee to other parts of the country amid the unrelenting attacks from Hezbollah.
Israeli leaders have said they seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict with Hezbollah along the border with Lebanon but are prepared to use large-scale military force if needed to ensure all citizens can safely return to their homes.
On Monday night, Israel’s security cabinet expanded its war goals to include returning the displaced Israelis from the north.
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