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Change in the Middle East? Don’t Hold Your Breath
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends a virtual cabinet meeting from his office in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, May 28, 2024. Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS
One year after Hamas’ October 7 massacre, I noticed a cluster of articles in various sources referring to strategic realignments among some of the players in the Middle East.
For example, Zvika Klein interprets the muted responses from Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to Israel’s latest bombing of military sites in Iran as indicating that, while each country continues to give lip service to the Palestinian cause, their primary attention has shifted to restraining Iran.
Maria Abi-Habib and Ismaeel Naar come to the opposite conclusion. Noting what appears to be a possible rapprochement between Iran and rival Saudi Arabia, they see a Middle East shift in which Saudi Arabia’s interest in a normalization deal has passed, and Israel’s profile as a regional player is diminished.
An article by Aida Chávez reports that after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, US Congressional leaders such as Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) discussed wide-ranging Middle East scenarios, including US guarantees of Saudi security along with Saudi and Gulf State help in reconstruction and governance of Gaza.
Meanwhile, Neville Berman reminds us of the success of the Marshall Plan in rebuilding Europe after World War II, suggesting something similar for Gaza — but only after the release of the Israeli hostages and after the people of Gaza reject Hamas and the “pyromaniacal aims of Iran.”
Finally, Fahad Almasri, President of the National Salvation Front in Syria, a group opposed to the Assad government, believes that Israel’s battles with Hezbollah and Iran have won the hearts of a majority of the Lebanese and Syrian people. Almasri argues that an Arab version of NATO, led by Saudi Arabia, would reduce foreign involvement in the area (especially Iran’s) and support peaceful relations with Israel.
While these proposals may be well intentioned, I am skeptical. We have seen this movie before. Previous starring roles, for example, involved Egypt under Nasser and Syria. Who remembers the late United Arab Republic?
In 1958, when John F. Kennedy was a senator, the world was dealing with the aftermath of the Suez Crisis. America was not Israel’s close ally. In fact, the US continued to enforce an embargo on arms sales to Israel. That year Kennedy wrote the following:
Even by the coldest calculations, the removal of Israel would not alter the basic crisis in the area. For, if there is any lesson which the melancholy events of the last two years and more taught us, it is that, though Arab states are generally united in opposition to Israel, their political unities do not rise above this negative position. The basic rivalries within the Arab world, the quarrels over boundaries, the tensions involved in lifting their economies from stagnation, the cross pressures of nationalism — all of these factors would still be there, even if there were no Israel.
What was true 66 years ago is still true today.
The prominent actors in the region are the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, all authoritarian regimes that rank far down on The Economist’s democracy index. Their influence is due to oil and gas revenues. Only 12 percent of the three million people living in Qatar, for example, are Qataris. (The same percentage applies to the UAE.) The vast majority are support workers from abroad. Qatar has been compared to a good airport terminal: pleasantly air-conditioned, lots of shopping, a wide selection of food, and people from around the world.
The Abraham Accords may yet lead to peace between Israel and all her neighbors, and adding Saudi Arabia to the Accords is laudable, but don’t get your hopes up.
Jacob Sivak, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, is a retired professor, University of Waterloo.
The post Change in the Middle East? Don’t Hold Your Breath first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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‘Incredibly Validating’: Documentary About Oct. 7 Rescue Wins People’s Choice Award at Toronto Film Festival
Canadian director Barry Avrich on the red carpet at a screening of “The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue” at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) on Sept. 10, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Anna Mehler Paperny
A film about a former Israeli general’s mission to rescue his family during the Hamas terrorist attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, won the People’s Choice award for best documentary at the 2025 Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF).
Director Barry Avrich’s documentary “The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue” took home the honor after a whirlwind journey of being dropped from the film festival and then reinvited. The Canadian documentary highlights retired Israeli Gen. Noam Tibon and his heroic efforts to rescue his son’s family from Hamas terrorists on Oct. 7, 2023, when they invaded kibbutz Nahal Oz near Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip.
“To win this award is thrilling for Mark and me. The audience voted and I appreciate that. We look forward to the rest of this journey [and] I appreciate everything that TIFF has done for us,” Avrich said while accepting the documentary award trophy at the Lightbox theater. The award was presented by TIFF CEO Cameron Bailey. The film’s producer, Mark Selby, said in his acceptance speech, “I hope that all the filmmakers of this festival feel as supported as Barry and I did during this whole process.”
“The Road Between Us” made its world premiere at TIFF on Sept. 10. TIFF originally invited the film to take part in this year’s festival but then removed the documentary from its lineup after claiming that filmmakers did not obtain clearance to use footage from the deadly attack that was taken by Hamas terrorists themselves. The film was ultimately invited to rejoin TIFF following outrage from pro-Israel supporters around the world and Cameron apologized twice for the festival’s decision to cancel the screening.
Avrich told The Canadian Press it feels “incredibly validating” to have the audience vote for his film to win the People’s Choice award for best documentary.
“We live in a country where it’s about freedom of expression. So, people want to protest. They can protest,” he told the publication. “We encourage people to see the film and if there’s something they want to protest about in reference to the film, fine. Or don’t buy a ticket. Either way, I’m fine with that … I’ve always said this is a film about family.”
“People can have an opinion but we encourage them to see the film first and then form their opinion based on what they’ve seen,” Selby added.
“The Road Between Us: The Ultimate Rescue” will be released in theaters across North America on Oct. 3. Watch the trailer below.
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Netanyahu Says Israel Should Invest in Influence Operations to Counteract Isolation
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at the opening event of the largest-ever bipartisan delegation of American legislators to Israel at the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem on Sept. 15, 2025. Photo: Debbie Hill/Pool via REUTERS
Israel needs to invest heavily in “influence operations” in traditional and social media to counteract economic isolation arising from negative publicity abroad, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday.
Speaking at a Finance Ministry conference, Netanyahu said foreign investment into Israel had held up in the wake of a 12-day war against Iran in June, which he said removed an immediate threat of a nuclear-armed foe.
But in a rare acknowledgment of the isolation arising from international criticism of Israel‘s war in Gaza, he said Israel faced an economic threat of sanctions and other measures.
He blamed isolation on minorities in Europe pushing “anti-Zionist and extreme Islamist ideology,” and on countries such as Qatar, backer of Arabic broadcaster Al Jazeera, investing in shaping global discourse through social media.
“This leads to sanctions against Israel and alters Israel‘s international standing … and this leads to a kind of isolation for Israel,” Netanyahu said. “We can break out of this isolation, but we must invest heavily in countermeasures — particularly in media and social media influence operations.”
Netanyahu said Israel should reduce the dependence of its industries on trade with other countries.
“We might find ourselves blocked not only in R&D but also in actual industrial production. We must start developing our capabilities to rely more on ourselves,” he said, adding that should also include arms and other defense products.
In a response, opposition leader Yair Lapid said international isolation was “the product of a wrong and failed policy by Netanyahu and his government.”
“They are turning Israel into a third world country and are not even trying to change the situation,” he wrote on X. “Israel can return to being successful, popular, with a thriving first-world economy.”
The war in Gaza was triggered by a rampage into southern Israel by Hamas terrorists who killed around 1,200 people and captured 251 hostages.
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Israel Threatens Hamas ‘Wherever They Are’ as Qatar Hosts Summit
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu takes a question from the media next to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio at their joint press conference at the Prime Minister’s Office, during Rubio’s visit, in Jerusalem, Sept. 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he did not rule out further strikes on Hamas leaders “wherever they are,” as the heads of Arab and Islamic states held a summit to back Qatar after Israel‘s attack last week in the Gulf state.
The Sept. 9 strike targeting leaders of the Palestinian terrorist group in Doha was a significant escalation of Israeli military action in a region shaken by conflict since the Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, attacks that ignited the Gaza war.
While the assembled Arab and Muslim leaders were expressing solidarity with Qatar, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Netanyahu and gave strong backing for Israel‘s stance, although Washington has expressed unease over the Qatar strike.
Speaking alongside Netanyahu in Israel, Rubio said the only way to end the war in Gaza would be for Hamas fighters to free all hostages and surrender. While the US wants a diplomatic end to the war, “we have to be prepared for the possibility that’s not going to happen,” he said.
Washington has said it was not warned in advance before Israel attacked Qatar, which houses the biggest US military base in the Middle East. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Israel had to be “very, very careful.”
“They have to do something about Hamas, but Qatar has been a great ally to the United States,” Trump said.
QATAR DENOUNCES ‘COWARDLY AND TREACHEROUS’ STRIKE
Hamas has said the Israeli strike killed five of its members, including a son of its exiled Gaza chief, but its leadership survived. Qatar says one of its security agents also died.
Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani urged the summit to take “practical and decisive steps” in response to the “cowardly and treacherous” strike, saying it occurred as Hamas leaders were studying a US ceasefire proposal.
The final communique of the summit, which brought together states including Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, did not contain language that appeared in a draft seen by Reuters which said the Israeli attack and other “hostile acts” threaten coexistence and efforts to normalize ties in the region.
A separate statement by the Gulf Cooperation Council said Israel’s “continuation of these aggressive policies undermines … the future of existing understandings and agreements with Israel.”
The summit’s communique did call on countries to review diplomatic and economic ties with Israel, in what Arab League Assistant Secretary General Hossam Zaki said was an invitation to states that have relations with Israel to revise them.
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, a US ally which signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979, told the meeting Israel‘s actions “put obstacles in the way of any opportunities for any new peace agreements and even aborts existing ones.”
RUBIO TO FLY TO QATAR
Rubio will travel to Qatar after his visit to Israel. He called on Qatar to continue to play a constructive role in resolving the Gaza conflict, saying it could help reach the goals of releasing all 48 hostages still held in Gaza, disarming Hamas and building a better future for Gazans.
But his words alongside Netanyahu suggested Washington now considers a diplomatic solution unlikely and is backing Israel‘s plan for a major new military operation that Netanyahu says will crush Hamas once and for all.
“As much as we may wish that there be a peaceful, diplomatic way to end it, and we’ll continue to explore and be dedicated to it, we also have to be prepared for the possibility that’s not going to happen,” said Rubio, calling Hamas “savage terrorists.”
“Hamas needs to cease to exist as an armed element that can threaten the peace and security of the region,” he said.
Netanyahu did not rule out annexing the West Bank in response to moves by some countries to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly later this month. France and Britain are among the countries that have said they will do so.
Asked whether Israel was considering extending its sovereignty to the West Bank, Netanyahu said: “A future step is a future step. We don’t need to expose it ahead of time.”
“It’s clear that taking unilateral actions against us simply invites unilateral actions on our part,” he said.
While diplomacy was unfolding in Jerusalem and Doha, Israeli forces continued their military campaign in Gaza City.
The war in Gaza was triggered by a rampage into southern Israel by Hamas terrorists who killed around 1,200 people and captured 251 hostages.