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Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Destroyed or Not?

A satellite image shows airstrike craters over the underground centrifuge halls of the Natanz Enrichment Facility, following US airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Natanz County, Iran, June 22, 2025. Photo: Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS
The head of France’s DGSE intelligence agency, Nicolas Lerner, announced this week that Israel and the United States had overstated the impact of their strikes on Iran, claiming the nuclear program has been set back by only “a few months.”
By contrast, President Donald Trump has used terms like “total obliteration,” while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the results as a “historic victory.” These are just a few of the conflicting voices regarding the success (or lack thereof) of Israel and America’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity.
So which is it? The answer: neither.
Almost everything we think we know is now irrelevant, and to understand the new reality requires an entirely new world view.
PDA/BDA assessments take months.
The whole assessment concept is part of the old world view, but let’s address it anyway, and then talk about why it’s irrelevant.
A truly accurate PDA (Physical Damage Assessment) or BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) takes weeks to months to complete.
America’s Joint Chiefs of Staff’s “Methodology for Combat Assessment” describes PDA as taking place in three phases, each involving multiple intelligence sources. Truly reliable results become available only after completing Phase III, which historically has taken months to complete, such as after bombing campaigns in Kosovo, and Iraq and Afghanistan.
In short, anyone at this stage is — at best — communicating an unreliable Phase I or II assessment, or, at worst, is merely spouting agenda driven PR.
Trump and Netanyahu are probably right.
Again, this doesn’t really matter, but let’s explore it anyway.
Despite the limitations of PDA/BDA assessment methods, logic dictates that Trump and Netanyahu’s assessments of “total obliteration” and “historic victory” are probably correct, based on these three realities:
- Most of the bombs dropped on Iran have guidance systems which means they will consistently land exactly on target. Accuracy is measured by what’s called a “CEP” (Circular Error Probable) which ranges from 1 meter (about 3 feet) for certain smaller laser guided munitions, to 5 meters (about 20 feet) for the massive GBU-57 bombs which the United States dropped on Iran’s Fordo facility.
- As far as we know, Israel has superb intelligence on Iranian facilities, including their size, shape and composition, their depth, what type of geology surrounds them, and every other relevant factor.
- The United States and Israel employ plenty of experts in physics and mathematics. Dropping a known munition with high accuracy on a known target will produce scientifically predictable results.
Assuming all three of these assertions are true, it is highly likely that the Israeli and American bombing campaigns accomplished exactly what they intended. It is of course possible that there were some unknowns or surprises underground: for example, an unexpected change to the structure or a different geology than originally thought. For this reason we will not know the results for certain until after the Phase III assessments are completed.
However, none of that matters because…
This situation is not static, but dynamic.
This whole phrasing of how many months or years Iran’s nuclear program was “set back” is, in truth, utterly meaningless.
In order to know how far I am from a goal, I must know two things: where I am located in relation to that goal, and also how quickly I’m traveling. For example, if I want to get from Tel Aviv to New York, I must cover about 6,000 miles. By airplane that will take about 12 hours, by ship it will take several weeks, and if I sit on my couch and don’t move, then I will never arrive in New York at all.
We have some sense of where Iran’s facilities and resources stand in relation to the goal of producing a nuclear weapon, but how fast is Iran moving toward that goal?
Put aside for a moment that most of Iran’s nuclear scientists were killed in Israeli strikes, and that any remaining scientists might be rethinking their career choices right now. There is also a deeper reality, one that has changed the Middle East: Israel and the United States now command total air superiority over Iranian skies and impressive intelligence penetration into Iran’s military operations.
Previously, in order to slow Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon, the world was limited to UN inspections, subtle acts of sabotage or assassination, and negotiations. Yet now, with Iran’s proxy network in ruins, its air defenses laid waste, and its ballistic missile network degraded, we are living in a whole new world: one in which Israel or America can fly into Iran at any time and destroy pretty much anything they choose, even if it’s hidden hundreds of feet underneath a mountain.
So we return to the original question: at what pace is Iran moving toward a nuclear bomb? The answer is: it doesn’t matter, because any progress Iran makes can be promptly destroyed. Iran is, metaphorically speaking, like a traveler without a passport: he can go to the airport, but will never be allowed to travel.
China is rumored to be already resupplying Iran’s ballistic missile capacity (a rumor which China denies) and Iran has removed the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from the remains of its nuclear sites: a possible precursor to resuming illicit activities.
None of this matters if the world stays vigilant.
The true value of Israel’s impressive campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and America’s impressive conclusion, lies not in the results of any specific damage assessment but in the now, fully open, skies over Iran. The free world has a new capacity to stop any future threats, but a change in Western politics or popular opinion could upend these hard won gains.
If Israel, America, and the entire free world remain both vigilant and active, then the potential for Iran, the Middle East and the entire world, is bright and unbounded by any deadline. Yet we will be safe only so long as we live up to our responsibility to protect that very safety.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Destroyed or Not? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Report: IDF Probes Whether Houthis Used Iranian Cluster Bomb-Bearing Missile

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi addresses followers via a video link at the al-Shaab Mosque, formerly al-Saleh Mosque, in Sanaa, Yemen, Feb. 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
i24 News – The Israeli military said Saturday it launched a probe into the failure of its defenses to fully intercept a missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi jihadists, parts of which struck not far from the Ben Gurion airport on Friday night.
According to the Ynet website, one of the hypotheses being examined is that the projectile contained cluster munitions, similar to those used by Iran to fire at Israeli cities during the 12-day war in June. Cluster munitions pose a challenge to interceptors as they disperse smaller explosives over a wide area.
In June, Iran fired several missiles carrying scattered small bombs with the aim of increasing civilian casualties.
The IDF said on Saturday that its initial review suggests the ballistic missile from Yemen likely fragmented in mid-air. Five interceptors from various systems engaged with the missile, including THAAD, Arrow, David Sling & Iron Dome.
Authorities said that shrapnel impacted a house in the central Israeli moshav of Ginaton, yet no one was hurt, with the fragment landing in the house’s backyard.
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Iran Forces Kill Six Militants, IRNA Reports, Israel Link Seen

The Iranian flag is seen flying over a street in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 3, 2023. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iranian security forces shot dead six militants in a clash in southeastern Iran on Saturday, a day after armed rebels killed five police officers in the restive region, the official news agency IRNA reported.
IRNA said evidence showed the group was linked to Israel and may have been trained by Israel‘s Mossad spy agency. There was no immediate Israeli reaction to the allegation.
Another two members of the militant group were arrested, the report said. All but one of the militants were foreign, it added, without giving their nationality.
Iranian police said this month they had arrested as many as 21,000 suspects during the 12-day war with Israel in June.
Iran’s southeast has been the scene of sporadic clashes between security forces and armed groups, including Sunni militants and separatists who say they are fighting for greater rights and autonomy.
Tehran says some of them have ties to foreign powers and are involved in cross-border smuggling and insurgency.
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Benny Gantz Urges Time-Limited National Unity Government to Further Chances of Hostage Deal

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz attends his party’s meeting at the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, June 27, 2022. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
i24 News – Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz on Saturday called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition politicians to form a temporary national unity government to further the chances of bringing home the hostages held in Gaza.
Addressing Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Liberman, Gantz said that the proposed government’s two supreme priorities would be the release of Israeli hostages held by the jihadists of Hamas and instituting universal conscription in Israel by ending the exemption from military service enjoyed by the ultra-Orthodox.
Upon attainment of the goals, the government would dissolve and call an election.
“The government’s term will begin with a hostage deal that brings everyone home,” Gantz said in a video address. “Within weeks, we will formulate an enlistment outline that would see our ultra-Orthodox brethren drafted to the military and ease the burden on those already serving. Finally, we will announce an agreed-upon election date in the spring of 2026 and pass a law to dissolve the Knesset [Israeli parliament] accordingly. This is what’s right for Israel.”