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Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Destroyed or Not?

A satellite image shows airstrike craters over the underground centrifuge halls of the Natanz Enrichment Facility, following US airstrikes amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Natanz County, Iran, June 22, 2025. Photo: Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS
The head of France’s DGSE intelligence agency, Nicolas Lerner, announced this week that Israel and the United States had overstated the impact of their strikes on Iran, claiming the nuclear program has been set back by only “a few months.”
By contrast, President Donald Trump has used terms like “total obliteration,” while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the results as a “historic victory.” These are just a few of the conflicting voices regarding the success (or lack thereof) of Israel and America’s campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity.
So which is it? The answer: neither.
Almost everything we think we know is now irrelevant, and to understand the new reality requires an entirely new world view.
PDA/BDA assessments take months.
The whole assessment concept is part of the old world view, but let’s address it anyway, and then talk about why it’s irrelevant.
A truly accurate PDA (Physical Damage Assessment) or BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) takes weeks to months to complete.
America’s Joint Chiefs of Staff’s “Methodology for Combat Assessment” describes PDA as taking place in three phases, each involving multiple intelligence sources. Truly reliable results become available only after completing Phase III, which historically has taken months to complete, such as after bombing campaigns in Kosovo, and Iraq and Afghanistan.
In short, anyone at this stage is — at best — communicating an unreliable Phase I or II assessment, or, at worst, is merely spouting agenda driven PR.
Trump and Netanyahu are probably right.
Again, this doesn’t really matter, but let’s explore it anyway.
Despite the limitations of PDA/BDA assessment methods, logic dictates that Trump and Netanyahu’s assessments of “total obliteration” and “historic victory” are probably correct, based on these three realities:
- Most of the bombs dropped on Iran have guidance systems which means they will consistently land exactly on target. Accuracy is measured by what’s called a “CEP” (Circular Error Probable) which ranges from 1 meter (about 3 feet) for certain smaller laser guided munitions, to 5 meters (about 20 feet) for the massive GBU-57 bombs which the United States dropped on Iran’s Fordo facility.
- As far as we know, Israel has superb intelligence on Iranian facilities, including their size, shape and composition, their depth, what type of geology surrounds them, and every other relevant factor.
- The United States and Israel employ plenty of experts in physics and mathematics. Dropping a known munition with high accuracy on a known target will produce scientifically predictable results.
Assuming all three of these assertions are true, it is highly likely that the Israeli and American bombing campaigns accomplished exactly what they intended. It is of course possible that there were some unknowns or surprises underground: for example, an unexpected change to the structure or a different geology than originally thought. For this reason we will not know the results for certain until after the Phase III assessments are completed.
However, none of that matters because…
This situation is not static, but dynamic.
This whole phrasing of how many months or years Iran’s nuclear program was “set back” is, in truth, utterly meaningless.
In order to know how far I am from a goal, I must know two things: where I am located in relation to that goal, and also how quickly I’m traveling. For example, if I want to get from Tel Aviv to New York, I must cover about 6,000 miles. By airplane that will take about 12 hours, by ship it will take several weeks, and if I sit on my couch and don’t move, then I will never arrive in New York at all.
We have some sense of where Iran’s facilities and resources stand in relation to the goal of producing a nuclear weapon, but how fast is Iran moving toward that goal?
Put aside for a moment that most of Iran’s nuclear scientists were killed in Israeli strikes, and that any remaining scientists might be rethinking their career choices right now. There is also a deeper reality, one that has changed the Middle East: Israel and the United States now command total air superiority over Iranian skies and impressive intelligence penetration into Iran’s military operations.
Previously, in order to slow Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon, the world was limited to UN inspections, subtle acts of sabotage or assassination, and negotiations. Yet now, with Iran’s proxy network in ruins, its air defenses laid waste, and its ballistic missile network degraded, we are living in a whole new world: one in which Israel or America can fly into Iran at any time and destroy pretty much anything they choose, even if it’s hidden hundreds of feet underneath a mountain.
So we return to the original question: at what pace is Iran moving toward a nuclear bomb? The answer is: it doesn’t matter, because any progress Iran makes can be promptly destroyed. Iran is, metaphorically speaking, like a traveler without a passport: he can go to the airport, but will never be allowed to travel.
China is rumored to be already resupplying Iran’s ballistic missile capacity (a rumor which China denies) and Iran has removed the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from the remains of its nuclear sites: a possible precursor to resuming illicit activities.
None of this matters if the world stays vigilant.
The true value of Israel’s impressive campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, and America’s impressive conclusion, lies not in the results of any specific damage assessment but in the now, fully open, skies over Iran. The free world has a new capacity to stop any future threats, but a change in Western politics or popular opinion could upend these hard won gains.
If Israel, America, and the entire free world remain both vigilant and active, then the potential for Iran, the Middle East and the entire world, is bright and unbounded by any deadline. Yet we will be safe only so long as we live up to our responsibility to protect that very safety.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Destroyed or Not? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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After False Dawns, Gazans Hope Trump Will Force End to Two-Year-Old War

Palestinians walk past a residential building destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, after Hamas agreed to release hostages and accept some other terms in a US plan to end the war, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
Exhausted Palestinians in Gaza clung to hopes on Saturday that US President Donald Trump would keep up pressure on Israel to end a two-year-old war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced the entire population of more than two million.
Hamas’ declaration that it was ready to hand over hostages and accept some terms of Trump’s plan to end the conflict while calling for more talks on several key issues was greeted with relief in the enclave, where most homes are now in ruins.
“It’s happy news, it saves those who are still alive,” said 32-year-old Saoud Qarneyta, reacting to Hamas’ response and Trump’s intervention. “This is enough. Houses have been damaged, everything has been damaged, what is left? Nothing.”
GAZAN RESIDENT HOPES ‘WE WILL BE DONE WITH WARS’
Ismail Zayda, 40, a father of three, displaced from a suburb in northern Gaza City where Israel launched a full-scale ground operation last month, said: “We want President Trump to keep pushing for an end to the war, if this chance is lost, it means that Gaza City will be destroyed by Israel and we might not survive.
“Enough, two years of bombardment, death and starvation. Enough,” he told Reuters on a social media chat.
“God willing this will be the last war. We will hopefully be done with the wars,” said 59-year-old Ali Ahmad, speaking in one of the tented camps where most Palestinians now live.
“We urge all sides not to backtrack. Every day of delay costs lives in Gaza, it is not just time wasted, lives get wasted too,” said Tamer Al-Burai, a Gaza City businessman displaced with members of his family in central Gaza Strip.
After two previous ceasefires — one near the start of the war and another earlier this year — lasted only a few weeks, he said; “I am very optimistic this time, maybe Trump’s seeking to be remembered as a man of peace, will bring us real peace this time.”
RESIDENT WORRIES THAT NETANYAHU WILL ‘SABOTAGE’ DEAL
Some voiced hopes of returning to their homes, but the Israeli military issued a fresh warning to Gazans on Saturday to stay out of Gaza City, describing it as a “dangerous combat zone.”
Gazans have faced previous false dawns during the past two years, when Trump and others declared at several points during on-off negotiations between Hamas, Israel and Arab and US mediators that a deal was close, only for war to rage on.
“Will it happen? Can we trust Trump? Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time? He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now,” said Aya, 31, who was displaced with her family to Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
She added: “Maybe there is a chance the war ends at October 7, two years after it began.”
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Mass Rally in Rome on Fourth Day of Italy’s Pro-Palestinian Protests

A Pro-Palestinian demonstrator waves a Palestinian flag during a national protest for Gaza in Rome, Italy, October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Claudia Greco
Large crowds assembled in central Rome on Saturday for the fourth straight day of protests in Italy since Israel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver aid to Gaza, and detained its activists.
People holding banners and Palestinian flags, chanting “Free Palestine” and other slogans, filed past the Colosseum, taking part in a march that organizers hoped would attract at least 1 million people.
“I’m here with a lot of other friends because I think it is important for us all to mobilize individually,” Francesco Galtieri, a 65-year-old musician from Rome, said. “If we don’t all mobilize, then nothing will change.”
Since Israel started blocking the flotilla late on Wednesday, protests have sprung up across Europe and in other parts of the world, but in Italy they have been a daily occurrence, in multiple cities.
On Friday, unions called a general strike in support of the flotilla, with demonstrations across the country that attracted more than 2 million, according to organizers. The interior ministry estimated attendance at around 400,000.
Italy’s right-wing government has been critical of the protests, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggesting that people would skip work for Gaza just as an excuse for a longer weekend break.
On Saturday, Meloni blamed protesters for insulting graffiti that appeared on a statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s main train station, where Pro-Palestinian groups have been holding a protest picket.
“They say they are taking to the streets for peace, but then they insult the memory of a man who was a true defender and builder of peace. A shameful act committed by people blinded by ideology,” she said in a statement.
Israel launched its Gaza offensive after Hamas terrorists staged a cross border attack on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 people hostage.
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Hamas Says It Agrees to Release All Israeli Hostages Under Trump Gaza Plan

Smoke rises during an Israeli military operation in Gaza City, as seen from the central Gaza Strip, October 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Hamas said on Friday it had agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or dead, under the terms of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal, and signaled readiness to immediately enter mediated negotiations to discuss the details.