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Israel’s Hostage Deal Is a Tragic and Historic Mistake

Orthodox Jewish men stand near a tank, ahead of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from the Israeli side of the border with Gaza, Jan. 16, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
The Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal is a massive and crippling defeat for Israel. There is no other way to frame it.
After 15 months of fighting, the best deal Israel could secure was releasing 57 Palestinian criminals and murderers for every Israeli hostage.
Judging from a partial list of those being released, it seems very likely that far more than 98 Israelis will die as a result of this deal.
It is also clear that Israel has failed in its war aims to eradicate Hamas from Gaza and replace it with a new government. The war didn’t establish a deterrent to future terrorism; in fact, this hostage deal will likely *increase* the risk of terrorism, especially hostage-taking.
As Palestinian Media Watch has pointed out, the seeds of the October 7 massacre were planted in 2011, when Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian terrorists and murderers for one living Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit.
The terrorists released in 2011 went on to kill or aid in the murder of more than a thousand Israelis, and planned the October 7 massacre itself. (Yahya Sinwar was one of those released in 2011; similarly, many terrorist leaders and masterminds are being released this time).
The Gilad Shalit deal taught the Palestinian people one critical lesson: kidnapping Israelis works.
Now, once again, Palestinians are seeing the fruits of their labors with the absurd release of 1,900 Palestinian terrorists and prisoners for 33 Israelis (who aren’t even all alive).
Of course, we all want to see the 98 Israeli hostages come home — but the definition of insanity is to repeat the same policy and expect a different result; yet, that’s exactly what Israel has done.
It seems mind-boggling that Israel could not extract a better terrorist-to-hostage ratio than 57:1 after 15 months of fighting in Gaza.
Even a 5-to-1 ratio would have seemed reasonable. Yet Hamas got 11 times that, which suggests that — contrary to the claims of the Israeli government — Hamas’ capabilities have not been degraded. If Hamas had been truly weakened, Israel could have secured a much better deal.
Between future kidnapping attempts — and acts of terrorism that will be committed by the thousands of murderers and terrorists being released — it’s virtually guaranteed that far more than 98 Israelis will die in the future because of this deal. (And remember, at least 34 of those Israeli hostages are already dead).
Israel’s ethos of bringing all its people home is a beautiful one; but beauty isn’t always the answer in the face of a barbaric, unrelenting, and sadistic enemy that is determined to murder every Jew in Israel.
Perhaps one could argue that Israel owes these 98 people a special duty, since the country failed them spectacularly on October 7. But doesn’t the Israeli government owe the guarantee of life and safety to nine million people in Israel?
Israel’s government had the obligation to choose the outcome that saved the most lives. But years from now, it will become very clear that this deal took more lives than it saved.
So many innocent children, women, and men will be lost — but it seems less tragic, because we can’t see their faces yet.
If Israel really wanted to bring those hostages home at any cost, it should have prosecuted the war in a completely different way (to achieve a better hostage deal or an actual victory) — and it should be treating Palestinian terrorists and murderers in a completely different way than we are now.
Some have suggested that Phase 1 of the deal is just a ploy to get some hostages back — and that once it’s completed, Israel will continue its war in Gaza apace. That seems unlikely given the exhaustion of Israel’s military, the international pressure that will be mounted against it, and various other factors. And even if that does happen — we still will have released hundreds of murderers and terrorist masterminds; Israeli soldiers will be at much greater risk than they were before; and it’s hard to believe Israel can accomplish what it hasn’t in 15 months absent a severe change of strategy, or more troops and resources.
Others have blamed this hostage deal on the United States — yet Prime Minister Netanyahu showed that he was able to resist pressure from the Biden administration at almost every turn. Either Trump is not the loyal friend of Israel he claims to be, or Netanyahu chose not to expend his political capital to fight for a better outcome. If nothing else, the deal sheds light on Netanyahu’s weakness, and Trump’s interest in being a “dealmaker” rather than the loyal advocate of Israel that many had hoped for.
Overall, this deal signals one thing: Israel’s weakness, both geostrategically, and among its political leadership.
More terror will result from this deal — and we can only hope that it’s not worse than October 7, 2023.
We must also hope that Israel finally finds competent leadership that avoids the extremes of the far-right and far-left, but acts with common sense — and the best interest of all nine million Israeli citizens — as its guiding policy.
The author is a political commentator and political analyst.
The post Israel’s Hostage Deal Is a Tragic and Historic Mistake first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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US Lawmakers Grill Ireland Ambassador Nominee on Israel

US Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) speaks during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing at the US Capitol, in Washington, DC, May 21, 2024. Photo: Graeme Sloan/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
During Thursday’s confirmation hearing for the position of US ambassador to Ireland, Dublin’s long-standing skepticism towards Israel became a central point of discussion.
Edward Walsh, the Trump Administration’s pick to serve as the liaison between America and the Ireland, fielded comments from federal lawmakers over the Emerald Isle’s intense criticism of Israel’s military operations in Gaza.
“This is going to be a tough needle to thread when you got a close ally making a horrible mistake,” Jim Risch, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said about Ireland’s treatment of Israel, “But you have got to thread that needle and I hope you will convey the message that they are very much out of step with the United States as far as the relationship with those countries.”
Risch lamented Ireland’s decision to officially recognize a Palestinian state, calling the declaration “a heartbreaking mistake with zero recognition of what Hamas did on October 7.”
“I hope you will ensure that our friends in Ireland will understand that America strongly supports Israel,” Risch added.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) lambasted the International Criminal Court (ICC) for being “engaged in a campaign against our Israeli allies.”
In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant, and Hamas terror leader Ibrahim al-Masri (better known as Mohammed Deif) for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. The ICC said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for starvation in Gaza and the persecution of Palestinians — charges vehemently denied by Israel, which has provided significant humanitarian aid into the war-torn enclave throughout the war.
US and Israeli officials issued blistering condemnations of the ICC move, decrying the court for drawing a moral equivalence between Israel’s democratically elected leaders and the heads of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that launched the ongoing war in Gaza with its massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
“These warrants are utterly illegitimate,” claimed Cruz, who added that the ICC’s warrant requests against Israeli leaders is “setting a precedent to go after countries who are not members of the Court, which exposes American soldiers and officials.”
“Ireland has filed a motion to directly boost the ICC campaign,” said Cruz.
Walsh agreed that Ireland’s lack of support for Israel represents a “big issue and a big concern.”
“We’re an ally of Israel so it’s a difficult conversation and I’d be glad to relay president Trump’s message over to them at any time,”
In January, Ireland filed a motion to join South Africa’s bid to the ICC accusing Israel of “genocide.” Israel responded by closing their embassy in Ireland and issuing a statement blasting Dublin for backing “the politicized proceedings being conducted at the ICC against Israel and its leaders.”
Ireland’s relationship with Israel has sharply deteriorated following the events of October 7, when Hamas launched a deadly massacre on the Jewish state, slaughtering roughly 1200 individuals and kidnapping 250 others. While Ireland swiftly condemned the Hamas attacks, its government has since voiced mounting criticism of Israel’s conduct in the conflict, particularly in regard to the high civilian death toll and humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
In response, Israeli officials have accused Ireland of bias and undermining Israel’s right to self-defense, further souring diplomatic ties. The deepening rift reflects long-standing tensions over Middle East policy and positions Ireland as one of the most outspoken critics of Israel within the European Union.
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Panic on Memorial Day: Sights and Sounds From Israel

Israelis stand for a moment of silence as the memorial siren sounds on Israel’s Memorial Day. Photo: Meir Pavlovsky, OneFamily
I was at the Memorial Day ceremony at Habima Square in Tel Aviv, which is like Israel’s Lincoln Center. This is not like America’s Memorial Day — there are no barbecues or celebrations. This is Israel: a small country, where everybody has lost somebody.
The commemorative siren sounded and thousands of people fell completely silent, some cried, a few dogs howled back at the siren. I saw two female police officers holding hands, one had tears in her eyes.
The siren ended and the ceremony proceeded, with speakers and prayers, but then, suddenly — screams.
“Screaming” isn’t really the right word — it was coming from all directions and sounded more like a huge high frequency roar, but not like in a sporting event. I can’t quite describe it; it was like hearing a tornado approach.
Then people were running, thousands of people, like a human tsunami — so I ran too. Because when something like this happens in Israel, you get to safety first and ask questions later.
To view a video of some of the event, click here.
Like most people around me, I first focused on getting some distance between myself and the event location, not knowing whether I might be about to run into something dangerous. I turned onto a side street because it seemed like a safe direction to go, then I saw some people running into a building, and I ran there too because it simply seemed to make sense. I found myself in someone’s apartment with about 20 other people.
I don’t remember falling along the way, but I noticed my knee was hurting, and my pants were ripped, so apparently I had.
One of the people in the apartment was crying and panicking, a young American girl, probably high school age, who didn’t speak Hebrew. So I sat with her explained what little I knew, as a few of us tried to give her some degree of comfort. I could at least offer a familiar American voice to talk to.
I also walked around and asked people if anyone had cell phone reception or had heard any news, and for the most part the answer was no. Later, when everything seemed OK, I thanked the apartment owner for “hosting” us and stood outside with the American girl waiting for her mother to come get her.
An Israeli woman nearby seemed concerned and I offered to walk her home. She thanked me, and told me her husband thanks me too — he was on the phone from Gaza where he was serving in combat that very night.
So what actually happened?
According to reports, several suspicious people, apparently wearing what appeared to be combat vests, tried to force their way through security into the ceremony. The suspicious people were arrested without further incident. Some conflicting reports said the suspects had attempted to attack police. Whatever it was, something about the interaction triggered a panic, which spread.
The police officially say this was not a “security event” but it’s important to remember that at the time, none of us knew that. We knew only that there was an urgent need to run, possibly for our lives.
I don’t mean to compare this small experience to some of the more dramatic ones Israelis have faced and continue to face: our hostages, our lost loved ones, our fallen soldiers, and more. But I can say this: in 14 years, I’ve been in my share of bomb shelters, and heard my share of sirens, yet this is the first time I’ve been inside of what one might call an “event.”
Meanwhile, terrorists successfully managed to set the countryside around Jerusalem on fire, cancelling numerous Memorial Day and Independence Day events and setting Israelis to work fighting the blaze.
It is well understood by all Israelis that terrorists favor large crowds and symbolic events for their attacks. A Memorial Day ceremony in Tel Aviv would be an ideal target — this reality was in the back of everyone’s mind from the beginning — which probably contributed to the rapid and dramatic reaction of the crowd.
And there’s something simply amazing about that: knowing that we realistically might be walking into danger, we came anyway. We came by the thousands, to HaBima Square and to other ceremonies across the country. We also show up to our jobs, and our lives, we take public transportation, we visit parks, and malls, protests and yes, even music festivals. The day-to-day courage of ordinary Israelis is remarkable, and touching beyond words.
There’s an Israeli expression: on Memorial Day, we acknowledge the painful cost of having a state; on Yom HaShoah (Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day) we acknowledge the cost of not having one.
And finally, on Independence Day, we celebrate. Celebrations are muted this year: due to the fires around Jerusalem, the hostages in Gaza, and our loved ones in the IDF fighting on seven different fronts.
Nonetheless, I wish you all a Happy Independence Day from Israel.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Trump’s Nuclear Talks With Iran Prompt Concern Among Republicans, Applause From Ex-Obama Officials

US President Trump speaks to the media at the annual White House Easter Egg Roll, Washington, DC, April 21, 2025. Photo: Andrew Leyden/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect
As the US continues to negotiate a potential nuclear deal with Iran, the Trump administration has drawn praise from political adversaries and criticism from traditional allies over a perceived reversion to the basic framework of the now-defunct 2015 nuclear accord, which US President Donald Trump has lambasted as a dangerous agreement.
Members of the former Obama administration have expressed cautious optimism that the approach of Trump and his team to the current nuclear talks might mirror the steps they took to reach the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal which placed temporary restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of major international sanctions. Trump withdrew the US from the accord during his first presidential term in 2018, arguing it was too weak and would undermine American interests.
Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers and hawkish foreign policy analysts have increasingly raised skepticism about the Trump administration’s approach to the Iranian nuclear program, suggesting that the White House has been receiving bad advice.
Such critics have argued that the White House may have relaxed its hardline stance against Iranian uranium enrichment, potentially allowing Iran’s Islamist regime to continue enriching uranium “civilian purposes.” Tehran has previously rejected halting its uranium enrichment program, insisting that the country’s right to enrich uranium is non-negotiable. Iranian officials have also refused to include their ballistic missile program, which would allow Iran to continue improving its weapons delivery capabilities, in negotiations with Washington.
The 2015 deal, which the Obama administration negotiated with Iran and other world powers, allowed Iran to enrich significant quantities of uranium to low levels of purity and stockpile them. It did not directly address the regime’s ballistic missile program but included an eight-year restriction on Iranian nuclear-capable ballistic missile activities.
Allies of Trump had argued such terms of the deal were insufficient, as they would allow the regime to maintain a large-scale nuclear program and wait for certain restrictions to expire before ramping up their activity. Supporters of the deal countered that the accord kept Iran further away from being able to break out toward a bomb quickly and gave international inspectors greater access to Iranian nuclear sites.
The current framework being advanced by the Trump administration “suggests that the Americans have, at least for now, abandoned several of the fundamental demands that were emphasized before negotiations began,” the Israeli outlet Israel Hayom wrote.
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who served as Trump’s top diplomat from 2018 to 2021, questioned the utility of attempting to broker a nuclear deal with Iran “while it is at its weakest strategic point in decades” in a recent article for the Free Press. He appeared to be referring to Israel’s military activities in recent months decimating Iran’s air defenses and proxy forces — particularly Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — in the Middle East. Pompeo argued that conservatives who “coddle” Iran in hopes of avoiding war are only ensuring that Tehran eventually acquires a nuclear weapon.
The White House has also received criticism from fellow Republicans in Congress. In a comment posted on X/Twitter, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), for example, lamented, “Anyone urging Trump to enter into another Obama Iran deal is giving the president terrible advice.” Urging the White House to reverse course, Cruz added that Trump “is entirely correct when he says Iran will NEVER be allowed to have nukes. His team should be 100% unified behind that.”
Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where she works as deputy director of the think tank’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, also warned against any deal allowing Iran to retain its uranium enrichment capabilities.
“Only the full, verified, and permanent dismantlement of Iran’s enrichment, weaponization, and missile-delivery programs constitutes a sound deal with Iran,” she told The Algemeiner. “Leaving enriched uranium, associated facilities, centrifuges, and infrastructure in the country means Tehran can renege on a deal and ramp its nuclear threat up at any time. Iran’s breakout time would also be considerably shorter today given its stock of thousands of fast-enriching advanced centrifuges.”
Stricker continued, “The regime’s goal is to wait out the Trump administration, delay sanctions pressure, and avoid a military strike. The administration should make clear that dismantlement is the only possible deal that allows the regime to avoid major consequences.”
David Bedein, director of the Jerusalem-based Center for Near East Policy Research, blasted the Trump administration for supposedly keeping the details of the negotiations a “mystery” and potentially compromising Israel’s long-term interests in the region.
The Trump administration’s allowing Iran to continue enriching uranium would be “an absolute violation of Israel’s interests,” he told The Algemeiner.
Bedein also claimed that the intentions of Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, are “dangerously unclear,” noting his ties to Qatar, which has long maintained close cooperation with Iran and supported terrorist groups such as Hamas.
In 2023, the Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, purchased one of Witkoff’s New York properties for nearly $623 million. Witkoff further raised eyebrows earlier this year when he praised Qatar as a partner of the US and a stabilizing force in the Middle East.
Witkoff drew backlash last month when, during a Fox News interview, he suggested that Iran would be allowed to pursue a nuclear program for so-called civilian purposes, saying that Iran “does not need to enrich past 3.67 percent.” The next day, Witkoff backtracked on these remarks, writing on X/Twitter that Tehran must “stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that Iran has to “walk away” from uranium enrichment and long-range missile development and it should allow nuclear inspectors access to military facilities.
Despite pursuing diplomacy, Trump has said he is committed to ensuring Iran never gets a nuclear weapon and has threatened additional sanctions, tariffs, and military action if Iran does not agree to a deal to curb its nuclear activity.
Harsh US sanctions levied on Iran during Trump’s first term crippled the Iranian economy and led its foreign exchange reserves to plummet. Trump and his Republican supporters in the US Congress criticized the former Biden administration for renewing billions of dollars in US sanctions waivers, which had the effect of unlocking frozen funds and allowing the country to access previously inaccessible hard currency. Critics argue that Iran likely used these funds to provide resources for Hamas and Hezbollah to wage new terrorist campaigns against the Jewish state, including the brutal Oct. 7 massacres throughout southern Israel perpetrated by Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists.
Iran has claimed that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes rather than building weapons. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, reported last year that Iran had greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons grade at its Fordow site dug into a mountain.
The UK, France, and Germany said in a statement at the time that there is no “credible civilian justification” for Iran’s recent nuclear activity, arguing it “gives Iran the capability to rapidly produce sufficient fissile material for multiple nuclear weapons.”
However, former key players within the Obama administration have praised the similarities between Trump’s efforts and the JCPOA.
Ilan Goldberg, a national security advisor in the Pentagon and State Department during the Obama administration, praised the Trump administration for doing the “right thing” by revisiting key components of the now-scrapped JCPOA during their negotiations with Iran.
“It’s hard not to take a jab at Donald Trump for walking away from the nuclear deal in the first place, because I think if we get to a deal, it’ll probably be something pretty similar,” Goldberg told Jewish Insider.
Phil Gordon, a national security advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris and White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa, and the Persian Gulf Region during the Obama administration, said that the Trump team will learn that they are likely to “have to accept some of the same imperfections that the Obama team did.”
Israel has been among the most vocal proponents of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that that the US should pursue a “Libyan option” to eliminate the possibility of Tehran acquiring a nuclear weapon by overseeing the destruction of Iran’s nuclear installations and the dismantling of equipment.
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