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Nuclear War in the Middle East
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the Iranian centrifuges in Tehran, Iran, June 11, 2023. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Israel’s “Iran nuclear problem” is not principally about enemy leaders who might go mad. The more worrisome existential problem for Israel is sane, rational enemies who experience miscalculation, poor reasoning or mechanical/electrical/computer malfunction. Other nuclear hazards that could coincide with Iranian sanity and rationality include accidental firing, unauthorized launch and coup d’état.
While it is true that decisions made by a mad Iranian nuclear adversary could have catastrophic consequences for Israel (even, indeed, by a mad pre-nuclear Iran), the likelihood of such decisions is lower than what could be expected of a sane and rational Iranian enemy. Because a nuclear war would be a unique event, such a likelihood cannot be expressed numerically or statistically but is still supportable by analytic argument.
Logic-based calculations suggest that the dispersion of nuclear dangers among multiple Iranian decisionmakers would be more perilous for Israel than the threat posed by a single authoritative Iranian leader who is mad or irrational. Here, madness and irrationality would include Iranian decisionmakers driven by jihadist theologies and principles.
In all circumstances, whether the greater danger to Israel is Iranian decisional madness or Iranian decisional sanity, Jerusalem must stay mindful of a possible “black swan” event. This need will be much greater if Iran is allowed to become a nuclear weapons state. Even at this late date, Israel should remain preemption-ready.
For Jerusalem, there are also time-urgent geopolitical considerations. Iran is approaching nuclear weapons capability concurrently with the acceleration by its jihadist proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Islamic Jihad and Fatah – of terrorist crimes against Israel. Iran, which is steadily expanding its ties with Russia, China and North Korea, repeatedly declares its genocidal intentions toward Israel. And Israel is a state with no “strategic depth.”
Prima facie, Middle Eastern geopolitics are a system. Potentially related scenarios of superpower conflict may be dense or even opaque, but they remain relevant. Among other things, the continuously changing iterations of “Cold War II” could embrace international conflicts that involve Israel with North Korea, China, India or Pakistan. Such a dangerous embrace could be sudden or incremental.
For Israel to proceed purposefully, some primary and subsidiary distinctions need further clarification. One concerns the vital differences between a deliberate or intentional nuclear war and a nuclear war that is unintentional or inadvertent. Without considering this distinction, little of value can be determined about the likelihood of a nuclear conflict.
The greatest dangers of an unintentional nuclear war are decision-making errors, underestimations or overestimations of enemy intent, or simple miscalculations. As classical military theorist Carl von Clausewitz observed, “Everything is very simple in war, but even the simplest thing is difficult.”
There are other nuances to be considered. With regard to growing nuclear war risks in the Middle East, no concept could prove more clarifying than “synergy”. Synergistic interactions are those wherein the whole of nuclear war risk effects is greater than the sum of its parts. Unless such interactions are accurately assessed and evaluated in time, Israeli leaders could either underestimate or overestimate the cumulative impact of superpower competition on risk-taking. This suggests circumstances in which Russia and the United States (and perhaps China) struggle for escalation dominance in extremis – that is, during high-value crisis situations.
In the United States, allegedly reliable safeguards have been incorporated from the beginning into all operational nuclear command/control decisions. These safeguards do not apply, however, at the presidential level. In 1976, to gather informed policy clarifications regarding madness, irrationality and nuclear war, I reached out to retired General Maxwell D. Taylor, a former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. General Taylor sent a handwritten reply in which he concluded: “As to those dangers arising from an irrational American president, the only protection is not to elect one.”
In today’s convulsive world order, General Taylor’s succinct 1976 warning takes on even greater meaning. Based on both ascertainable facts and logic-based derivations, it is reasonable to assume that if an American president were to exhibit signs of emotional instability, irrationality or “mad” behavior, he/she could still lawfully order the use of American nuclear weapons. More worrisome, an American, Russian or Chinese president could become emotionally unstable, irrational or delusional, but not conspicuously exhibit such liabilities.
In all matters concerning nuclear war in the Middle East, there exist no histories from which to draw inferences. This is a fortunate absence, of course, but it still stands in the way of rendering reliable conflict predictions. The irony of this situation is obvious and problematic. Still, whatever the science-based obstacles to reliable prediction in this explosive region, Israel should approach the problem as an intellectual rather than a political challenge.
It must always be remembered that a nuclear war in the Middle East could occur as a spillover effect of nuclear war in Europe. To protect Israel’s survival, an American president should avoid strategic postures that neglect potential synergies with Russian, Chinese and/or North Korean postures. North Korea is a nuclear ally of Iran that built a nuclear reactor for Syria – the Al Kibar reactor, which was destroyed by Israel’s Operation Orchard on September 6, 2007. In law, that operation was a permissible act of anticipatory self-defense.
Strategist Herman Kahn wrote in the early 1960s that in the aftermath of a nuclear conflict, “survivors might envy the dead”. This is true whether the catastrophe was intentional or unintentional – in other words, whether it was spawned by base motives or by miscalculation, computer error, hacking, or a weapon system or infrastructure accident. Whatever else can be determined by Israel’s national security decisionmakers, they should understand that nuclear strategy is ultimately a high-stakes struggle between intentionality, uncertainty and calamity. Even if both Israel and a newly nuclear Iran were to undertake “sane” risk-taking measures during a crisis, the cumulative effect could still be mutually unwanted and “mad.”
For Israel, the only successful outcome of protracted military conflict with Iran would be a tangible reduction of Iran’s nuclear war-fighting capabilities and intentions. Optimally, this point will be understood and operationalized while Iran is still pre-nuclear.
Once it is at war with either a nuclear Iran or a pre-nuclear Iran with a willing nuclear proxy (e.g., North Korea), Israel could be mortally wounded by rational decisions made by sane enemy leaders. Even now, though Iran is not yet nuclear, it could use radiation dispersal weapons against the Jewish State and/or launch non-nuclear missiles at Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor.
In world politics, the most significant risks of nuclear war are not those of madness or irrationality. They are the cumulatively catastrophic risks of sane and rational decisions. For Israel, this means the worst-case Iranian nuclear war scenario is not the popular narrative of mad leadership in Tehran, but one of sane adversaries operating in opposition to sane adversaries in Jerusalem.
In this bewildering world order, the accumulated risks of a mutually sane search for escalation dominance could include nuclear war. Israeli leaders should be wary of mad or prospectively mad Iranian leaders, but even more wary of the nuclear consequences posed by sane and rational Iranian decision-makers.
Prof. Louis René Beres was educated at Princeton (Ph.D., 1971) and is the author of many books and scholarly articles dealing with international law, nuclear strategy, nuclear war, and terrorism. In Israel, Prof. Beres was Chair of Project Daniel (PM Sharon). His 12th and latest book is Surviving Amid Chaos: Israel’s Nuclear Strategy (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016; 2nd ed., 2018). A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Palestinian Authority Condemns Hamas for Murdering Gazans Seeking Food
Palestinians collect aid supplies from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, June 9, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hatem Khaled
According to the Palestinian Authority (PA), Hamas is systematically murdering Gazan residents attempting to access food supplies under the false pretext of “collaboration” with American aid distribution centers.
The descriptions of the murders, including the names of the murdered and of their relatives who reported their deaths, appeared in the PA’s official daily. It described harrowing accounts from Gazan families who condemn Hamas for operating “death squads” targeting civilians:
There are many reports that have begun to arrive from the Gaza Strip about killings by Hamas of many of the residents walking the roads in search of a sack of flour, under the pretext that they are collaborating with the American aid centers for food distribution! Not only do the reports reveal this, but there are also letters and statements from families whose sons have been reached by the treacherous hand of Hamas.
[Official PA daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, June 23, 2025]
Specific cases include:
The Shahin family from Deir Al-Balah reported the death of their son, Siraj Al-Din Hisham Shahin, due to “treacherous shooting” by Hamas.
The Al-Hilu family reported that five sons were murdered by Hamas. [emphasis added]
Hiba Al-Misshal, sister of victim Osama Al-Misshal, wrote the most detailed description:
[There is] a letter from the sister of murder victim Osama Al-Misshal, Hiba Al-Misshal, who revealed that a group of Hamas members bearing the name Arrow Unit stopped the bus her brother was traveling on together with other young men, while they were on their way to one of the food distribution centers.
They took them off the bus, bound them, and shot them, after falsely accusing them of “collaboration,” and they continued to chase them while they were wounded, up to the entrance of Nasser Hospital, where they shot them again and prevented the doctors and staff from treating them, and incited the people to beat them with sticks and pipes, amid painful silence around.
…This led to the killing of her brother and other young men who were on the bus! In her letter, Hiba [Al-Misshal] demands “justice for her brother and for every innocent young man who was unjustly murdered.” [emphasis added]
[Official PA daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, June 19, 2025]
The article explains that Hamas named the death squads the “Arrow Unit,” to make people think that it is not Hamas but a vigilante group. But according to the PA, Hamas is monopolizing aid distribution through a black market, and killing anyone who bypasses their system.
In its current crisis today, Hamas has no way out but to establish death squads against anyone who stands in the way of its plunder and tries to obtain a sack of flour, outside of its control and its black market.
[Official PA daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, June 19, 2025]
Even though the article was intended to expose Hamas, the PA could not help but add an accusation that Israel is also somehow responsible. Significantly, the accusations against Israel, which have been proven to be false in the past, come with no names, no evidence, and no eyewitnesses:
What allows this situation today, which is packed with death and destruction, is the Israeli occupation that has made the roads to food full of dangers…
The one who creates this hated reality today is not Israel alone, but Hamas in a similar manner, and it is a partner to it in this work of death. It pursues the hungry with death squads, which it called “the arrow” in order to tell those who go on the road in search of food that is not obtained through [Hamas] that they will be their prey through the “Arrow Unit.” This is the hated situation – and this is Hamas with the ‘arrow’ unit – the hunters of those seeking food.
[Official PA daily Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, June 19, 2025]
The author is the Founder and Director of Palestinian Media Watch, where a version of this article first appeared.
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Is CNN Sharing Iranian Propaganda Instead of Proper Journalism?
CNN logo. Photo: Josh Hallett / Flickr
Has CNN been keeping its audience properly informed? Over the past week, the network has published at least two video pieces focusing on the sentiments of regular Iranian civilians over the Israeli and American attacks on the Islamic regime’s nuclear, military, and political installations.
However, under scrutiny, both pieces appear to parrot narratives put out by the regime’s officials rather than properly representing the nuanced views of those Iranians on the ground.
Fred Pleitgen Interviews Iranians on the Streets of Tehran
On June 22, the day after the US bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, CNN journalist Fred Pleitgen (who claims to be the first Western journalist to enter Iran since the conflict started) took to the streets of Tehran to find out what Iranian civilians were feeling in the wake of the American attack.
What followed was a litany of pro-regime vitriol, with bystanders calling for a “strong response” to the American strikes, claiming that President Trump had no basis to attack Iran, and that Iran had done nothing wrong.
One interviewee even sounded like an official regime mouthpiece, stating that “I support the Supreme Leader with my life. I approve of him, really, because he’s moving forward for the sake of our land.”
There is no doubt that many Iranians are angry at the US for its attack on the nuclear facilities. However, there is also no doubt that Pleitgen chose to only present one public sentiment to his audience and create the false impression that it is the sentiment shared by a cross-section of Iranians.
A Western journalist would need the official permission of the authorities to report from Iran. Was Pleitgen given free rein to interview anyone on the street, or was he directed by officials to only interview those who tow the regime’s line?
And how would Iranian interviewees react? Given the regime’s efforts to crack down on any dissent, often using brutal measures, if any ordinary Iranian even dared to publicly state any criticism of the Islamic Republic?
It’s incredibly unlikely — but CNN won’t be transparent about the conditions that Pleitgen is working under, as well as the inability of critical voices to make themselves freely heard.
Since this latest conflict began on June 13, some other news outlets (like The Washington Post and ABC News Australia) have managed to present the diversity of views among Iran’s civilian population in a nuanced way, including those who are opposed to the attacks on Iranian soil and those who are cautiously optimistic about how this could affect the future of Iran.
By failing to interview anyone with opposing views (or to even mention that such views exist), Pleitgen has not filed a piece of journalism as much as a piece of regime-approved propaganda.
Erin Burnett Spreads Questionable Message
A few days before Fred Pleitgen took to the streets of Tehran, anchor Erin Burnett shared a video and message allegedly shared with her by an Iranian filmmaker named Pouria Nouri.
The video showed explosions in Tehran, while the message expressed the fears associated with living under bombing, while also conveying that Iranians have never been so united in “solidarity” in the face of Israeli attacks.
The message concluded, “As an Iranian citizen, I call on the world’s media not to close their eyes to the evident truth and to the initiator of this unjust war, the Israeli regime, and to pay attention to the plight of the Iranian people now caught in the midst of war. People who deserve a normal, peaceful life. Yet, their lives have now been thrown into chaos.”
Burnett found this message so powerful that she shared a part of it on her June 18 broadcast and read it in full on her TikTok page, describing it and the accompanying video as “incredible.”
Maybe a little too incredible.
No sooner had Burnett shared this supposed message from an Iranian civilian on her social media pages, than people began to cast doubt on its veracity.
On her X (formerly Twitter) page, many people pointed out that the message suspiciously echoed propaganda put out by the Islamic regime.
One analyst pointed out on TikTok that the message and video were likely spread by a regime plant since it echoes official state propaganda and it is illegal for regular Iranians to make contact with foreign media organizations. For someone to openly share something with CNN under their name, they would have to know that they are immune from punishment.
The fight against Iranian belligerence is being fought on land, in the air, and in the court of public opinion.
For CNN to pass off regime-approved talking points as genuine public sentiments expressed by the average Iranian civilian — while not balancing this with competing voice — is not only bad journalistic practice, but also assists the Islamic Republic’s propaganda efforts on the international stage.
The author is a contributor to HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.
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Brooklyn Nets Select Israeli Basketball Players Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf in NBA Draft
The opening tip between the Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards, at Barclays Center, in Brooklyn, New York, Dec. 13, 2020. Photo: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect
In a landmark night for Israeli basketball, Ben Saraf and Danny Wolf were selected in the first round of the 2025 NBA Draft by the Brooklyn Nets, marking the first time two Israeli players have been drafted in the same year.
Saraf, a 19-year-old guard known for his explosive athleticism and creative playmaking, was taken with the 26th pick. A standout with Maccabi Rishon LeZion and a rising star on Israel’s youth national teams, Saraf gained international attention with his electrifying scoring and commanding court presence.
With the 27th pick, the Nets selected 7-foot center Danny Wolf out of the University of Michigan. Wolf, who holds dual US-Israeli citizenship and represented Israel at the U-20 level, brings a versatile skill set, including sharp passing, perimeter shooting, and a strong feel for the game. After his name was called, Wolf grew emotional in an on-air interview, crediting his family for helping him reach the moment.
“I have the two greatest brothers in the world; I have an unbelievable sister who I love,” Wolf said. “They all helped me get to where I am today, and they’re going to help me get to where I am going to go in this league.”
The historic double-pick adds to the growing wave of Israeli presence on the NBA stage, led by Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija, who just completed a breakout 2024–25 season. After being traded to Portland last summer, Avdija thrived as a starter, averaging 16.9 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. In March alone, he posted 23.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game, including two triple-doubles.
“I don’t think I’ve played like this before … I knew I had it in me. But I’m not really thinking about it. I’m just playing. I’m just free,” Avdija told reporters in March
With Saraf and Wolf joining Avdija, Israel’s basketball pipeline has reached unprecedented visibility. Israeli President Isaac Herzog called the moment “a national celebration for sports and youth,” and Israeli sports commentators widely hailed the night as “historic.”
Both Saraf and Wolf are expected to suit up for the Nets’ Summer League team in July. As the two rookies begin their NBA journey, they join a growing generation of Israeli athletes proving that their game belongs on basketball’s biggest stage.
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