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Phase Two of the Hostage Deal: What Happens Next?
People stand next to flags on the day the bodies of deceased Israeli hostages, Oded Lifschitz, Shiri Bibas, and her two children Kfir and Ariel Bibas, who were kidnapped during the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, are handed over under the terms of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Feb. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Israel and Hamas are nearing completion of “Phase 1” of the January 19 ceasefire and hostage release deal, and what will happen next remains shrouded in mystery.
An estimated 27 living hostages and an estimated 32 bodies of murdered hostages remain in captivity. Furthermore, the Hamas terror organization remains armed and in control of Gaza, and both Israel and Hamas are expressing opposing demands for which there is no possible compromise. But the world has changed since October 7, 2023, and the way forward may offer an unexpected new option.
The deal with Hamas was designed to occur in three phases: 1. Release of Israeli women, children, and elderly hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian terror convicts held in Israeli prisons, as well as Israeli withdrawal from certain parts of Gaza, 2. Release of all remaining hostages in exchange for permanent and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and 3. Rebuilding Gaza.
In effect, the only way to proceed to Phase 2 is for Israel to allow Hamas to remain in power and to be the beneficiary of massive amounts of international aid, thus almost certainly ensuring another October 7 style attack will lie in Israel’s future. Israel is determined to not permit such an outcome, and Hamas is determined to not settle for anything less.
While the Israeli government has been tight lipped about its plans (perhaps because no decision has yet been reached), one anonymous official leaked the following:
Hamas has three choices.
- Disarm, send its leaders into exile, and give up any civil control over Gaza, thus releasing the hostages and ending the war.
- Continue releasing hostages in the style of Phase 1, and thus extend the ceasefire for now.
- Return to war.
The Israeli official added that if there isn’t an agreement or another release of hostages by March 8, then war will resume.
It is unlikely that Hamas would choose option #1 (exile), which leaves option #2 (ongoing hostage release), option #3 (war), or Hamas’sdemand for total Israeli withdrawal.
Some Israelis suggest that Israel agree to Hamas’ terms as a kind of ruse, and then, once all the hostages are released, to violate the deal and return to war.Yet Hamas is not unsophisticated and will almost certainly maintain leverage over Israel: either by finding an excuse to hold back some hostages indefinitely, or else by some international mechanism that would succeed in tying Israel’s hands.
Others Israelis insist on agreeing to Hamas’ demands and paying “any price” for the return of the hostages, even if that price results in future terror attacks, future hostages, and future bloodshed for even more Israelis. Still others point out, quite correctly, that in 16 months of war, Israel has not fully accomplished any of its goals: as both Hamas remains in power, and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Yet much has changed in recent months, and if Israel were to return to war, it would be prosecuted differently. Israel has been compelled to essentially fund both sides of this war, effectively providing fuel, electricity, and humanitarian supplies to Hamas. Hamas habitually stole these supplies and used them in two ways: 1. to directly support its fighters and fuel its rockets, or else 2. by selling supplies to civilians in order to raise funds for its military activities. This tactic also ensures Hamas’ ongoing popularity among the populace, as the terror group remains the sole source of food and supplies. Furthermore, international pressure greatly limited Israel’s ability to strike when and how it wished, to use certain weapons, or even to relocate Gaza’s civilians out of harm’s way, thus forcing Israel to fight through human shields.
Israel now has far greater support from the United States for aggressive action, including moving civilians out of Gaza. Such an approach would leave Gaza a total military zone, where Israel would have nearly unlimited freedom of action, and there would be no need for humanitarian aid, as there would be no civilian population to receive it. Moving civilians has proven highly effective over the past 16 months despite international doubts. For example, shortly after US Vice President Kamala Harris opposed moving civilians out of Rafah last March, claiming, “I have studied the maps, there’s nowhere for those folks to go,” Israel proved her wrong, moving a million people in just 10 days. Similar movements were accomplished out of Jabalya, Khan Yunis, and Gaza City.
It is also likely that, regardless of the fate of Hamas, Israelis will never be truly safe unless all Palestinians are relocated out of Gaza. Formerly an extreme right wing opinion, this notion is now the mainstream Israeli consensus across the entire political spectrum, with widespread support from almost all Israeli Jews (left, right and center) as well as nearly half of Israeli Arabs.
The impediment to moving Palestinians out of Gaza is therefore not the ability to physically move them, nor Israeli domestic opinion, nor international law which explicitly permits such movements, but rather the refusal of the Arab world to accept Palestinians under any circumstances.
Yet America has significant leverage over Egypt and Jordan, and has recently demonstrated a newfound openness to actually using it. For example: a mostly forgotten bit of history is that the Arab Spring (and the resulting overthrow of Egypt’s government) actually began when Russia stopped providing low cost wheat exports in 2011, thus spiking the price of bread within Egypt, and triggering the famous protests in Tahrir Square. This example demonstrates just how fragile certain middle eastern economies actually are. The United States, which provides billions of dollars of aid to Egypt and Jordan, can trigger similarly crippling economic effects with the stroke of a pen, thus endangering the very existence of entire countries without firing a shot.
Israelis are caught in a paradox: on the one hand wanting all hostages home, and on the other, wanting to fight for a safer reality on Israel’s southern border. The most likely outcome is that Phase 1 will informally continue, with ongoing hostage releases in exchange for ongoing ceasefire, until Hamas decides that the risk of no longer holding hostages is greater than the risk of imminent war. At that point, we will likely see a re-eruption of war in Gaza, but of a vastly different and more effective character than we have seen up until now.
One can only imagine how much bloodshed would have been spared on all sides, and how much more quickly the hostages might have come home, had Israel received the international support it both needed and deserved 16 months ago.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Phase Two of the Hostage Deal: What Happens Next? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Says Eight Arrested for Suspected Links to Israel’s Mossad Spy Agency
The Mossad recruitment ad. Photo: Screenshot.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday they had arrested eight people suspected of trying to transmit the coordinates of sensitive sites and details about senior military figures to Israel’s Mossad, Iranian state media reported.
They are accused of having provided the information to the Mossad spy agency during Israel’s air war on Iran in June, when it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and killed top military commanders as well as civilians in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq.
Iran retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites, infrastructure and cities. The United States entered the war on June 22 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
A Guards statement alleged that the suspects had received specialized training from Mossad via online platforms. It said they were apprehended in northeastern Iran before carrying out their plans, and that materials for making launchers, bombs, explosives and booby traps had been seized.
State media reported earlier this month that Iranian police had arrested as many as 21,000 “suspects” during the 12-day war with Israel, though they did not say what these people had been suspected of doing.
Security forces conducted a campaign of widespread arrests and also stepped up their street presence during the brief war that ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
Iran has executed at least eight people in recent months, including nuclear scientist Rouzbeh Vadi, hanged on August 9 for passing information to Israel about another scientist killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Human rights groups say Iran uses espionage charges and fast-tracked executions as tools for broader political repression.
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Body of Idan Shtivi, Murdered on Oct. 7, Retrieved from Gaza in Special IDF Operation
Idan Shtivi. Photo: Courtesy of the family
i24 News – The body of Idan Shtivi, a 28-year-old murdered by Palestinian jihadists at the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, was recovered in a joint operation by the IDF and Shin Bet in central Gaza, it was cleared for publication on Saturday.
Shtivi’s remains were returned to Israel alongside the body of Ilan Weiss, another hostage killed during the October 7 massacre.
“Idan Shtivi was abducted from the Tel Gama area and brutally murdered by Hamas terrorists after acting to rescue and evacuate others from the Nova music festival on October 7th, 2023. He was 28 years old at the time of his death,” read an IDF press release.
“Following an identification process conducted at the National Center for Forensic Medicine, along with the Israel Police and the Military Rabbinate, the Hostages and Missing Persons Headquarters notified his family.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Shviti “was a gifted student of sustainability and governance, and a courageous individual” who acted heroically on October 7, helping others flee.
“He was killed in the process and his body was abducted to Gaza by Hamas. My wife and I send our heartfelt condolences to the Shtivi family. So far, 207 hostages have been returned, 148 of them alive. We will continue to act tirelessly and decisively to bring back all our hostages—living and deceased.”
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Woman Stabbed at Ottawa Grocery Store in Latest Antisemitic Attack
A social media post by the alleged attacker, Joseph Rooke of Cornwall, Ontario. Photo: Screenshot via i24
i24 News – The stabbing of a Jewish woman at an Ottawa grocery by a man with a long history of antisemitic posts on social media, the latest antisemitic hate crime in Canada, sparked outrage and prompted condemnation from officials including the prime minister.
Both the victim and the attacker are in their 70s. The woman is reportedly in serious condition.
The suspect was identified as Joseph Rooke, who has authored a series of lengthy rambling screeds on social media, ranting against Israel and Jews.
“Judaism is the world’s oldest cult,” he writes in one post, going on to say “over time jews have become insidious in governments, businesses, media conglomerates, and educational institutions in order to do what they do better than anyone else. Jews are the world’s masters of propaganda, gaslighting, demonization, demagoguery, and outright lying. Using their collective wealth they have become masters of reprisal.”
“I am under no obligation whatsoever, legal, moral, or otherwise, to like jews and I do not. If that means I meet the jewish definition of an anti-semite, so be it.”
Canada has seen a steep spike in antisemitic attacks over the past two years, including a recent incident in Montreal where a Hasidic Jew was beaten in front on his children.
After Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the incident, many, including former Israel’s ambassador the US Michael Oren, pointed out that Carney’s rhetoric and policies contribute to the increasing insecurity of Canada’s Jewish community through uncritical embrace of outrageous and easily disprovable allegations that Israel and its supporters were guilty of the worst crimes against humanity.