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Reduction of US Presence in Iraq Likely to Embolden Iranian Axis, ISIS
Military vehicles of US soldiers are seen at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province, Iraq, Jan. 13, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/John Davison
JNS.org – The United States and Iraq have been engaged in talks aimed at transitioning the U.S.-led international military coalition in Iraq into a bilateral partnership, a process that has been delayed due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
These discussions will determine the future of U.S. military presence in Iraq, a country that Iran intends to take over with the help of its Shi’ite-backed militias, and which remains a critical battleground in the fight against Islamic State.
American officials have reiterated that U.S. military personnel are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government as part of “Operation Inherent Resolve” to advise, assist and enable the Iraqi security forces in their ongoing fight against ISIS. However, signs are growing that the Biden administration—as well as potentially any administration that follows it—would seek to either draw down or entirely remove the American military footprint in the country, with consequences for the entire region.
The United States currently maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq. Additionally, around 900 U.S. personnel are stationed in neighboring Syria, where they continue to play a critical role in counterterrorism operations.
Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and a former national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, cautioned against repeating the mistakes of the past in both Iraq and Afghanistan, which enabled radical jihadist forces to fill vacuums.
“The primary reason the U.S. military is in Iraq is to prevent a return of the ISIS caliphate,” said Bowman, who was an active-duty U.S. Army officer, Black Hawk pilot and assistant professor at West Point. “Let’s hope this administration does not force us to endure a sequel of the tragic movie we’ve seen before—a premature U.S. military withdrawal that ignores the advice of commanders and neglects conditions on the ground,” he told JNS.
Bowman drew parallels to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021, both of which, he argued, led to significant security setbacks. “That misguided decision to withdraw from Iraq in 2011 catalyzed a series of events that resulted in the ISIS caliphate, eventually forcing the U.S. military to return later to Iraq at a higher cost,” he said.
He noted that the Biden administration risks making the same mistake by withdrawing troops without fully considering the consequences. “In both cases, in Iraq and Afghanistan, we saw a predictable and forewarned disaster,” he added.
The prospect of a U.S. military drawdown in or withdrawal from Iraq has also raised concerns about Iran’s influence.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran wants the U.S. military out of the way,” Bowman stated. He explained that the U.S. presence in Iraq acts as a significant impediment to Tehran’s strategic objectives, which include exerting greater control over Baghdad and using supply lines to arm its proxies in next-door Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Iran would like to make Iraq like Lebanon, where Tehran uses its terror proxy to undermine national sovereignty and control government decisions,” he explained.
“If you think about it from a Sunni Iraqi perspective—if you have a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, what is that going to do? That is going to make you fearful that you have an Iranian takeover in Baghdad. Shi’ites aligned with Iran are going to be perceived as ascendant, and that’s going to make some Sunnis more susceptible to ISIS radicalization and recruitment. So, the obvious consequence, the predictable consequence, of a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq is more effective ISIS radicalization and recruitment of Sunnis,” Bowman warned.
He pointed to a July 16, 2024, release by U.S. Central Command that warned that “ISIS is on pace to more than double the total number of attacks they claimed in 2023.” The U.S. combatant command responsible for the Middle East said, “The increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability.”
“To make matters worse, if there is a credible perception that the prospective U.S. military withdrawal is in response to the more than 170 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since mid-October, then the take-home lesson for Iran and its terror proxies is that aggression against Americans pays,” added Bowman. “That will invite more attacks on Americans.”
Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations at Bar-Ilan University and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, echoed similar concerns regarding a potential U.S. withdrawal.
“The Iranians and their media outlets are pushing for a complete U.S. withdrawal,” he said. He also warned that a reduction in U.S. forces could lead to increased ISIS activity and further destabilize the region.
“It’s clear that if the United States pulls out, ISIS attacks will intensify,” he said, noting that U.S. forces are being targeted by radical Shi’ite Iranian-backed militias while they remain in Iraq to combat Sunni ISIS.
On Aug. 13, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that eight U.S. service members had been treated for traumatic brain injury and smoke inhalation following an Aug. 9 drone attack on the Rumalyn Landing Zone base in Syria, adding that an Iran-backed militia had launched the attack.
Gilboa also highlighted the strategic significance of the U.S. presence in Iraq, particularly in relation to Israel and other U.S. allies in the region. “Any move that strengthens Iran and its proxies harms Israel’s national security,” he stated.
Gilboa warned that if the U.S. withdraws, Iraq could become a failed state similar to Lebanon and Yemen, where Iranian-backed militias exert significant influence. “The American presence is a buffer that helps prevent the full takeover of Iraq by Iranian forces,” he explained.
Gilboa questioned whether planners in Washington were thinking about the long-term consequences of such an action.
He assessed that Washington could be keen to pull out of Iraq no matter who wins the next presidential elections in November, adding, “If Kamala Harris wins, she will not continue the Biden policies. Trump, for his part, has said that he will continue his actions from his first term, but that’s also unlikely. People change, and both could be susceptible to isolationist influences.”
As the future of the American footprint in Iraq appears uncertain, the stakes are high.
The potential for a U.S. withdrawal raises concerns that go beyond the resurgence of ISIS, and which touch on increased Iranian influence and effects on U.S. allies—including Jordan, which Iran has attempted to infiltrate, destabilize and use as an arms conduit via Iraq to the east.
The post Reduction of US Presence in Iraq Likely to Embolden Iranian Axis, ISIS first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Hezbollah’s Target was Mossad HQ in Central Israel
Mossad Director David Barnea. Photo: Amos Ben Gershom/Government Press Office.
JNS.org – The main target of Hezbollah’s Sunday morning attack was likely the Glilot base near Herzliya, the site of Mossad headquarters and various military intelligence units, according to preliminary Israeli assessments.
The New York Times reported, citing Western intelligence sources, that the IDF’s pre-emptive strike neutralized long-range rocket launchers that were set to target central Israel.
Hezbollah: The initial phase of retaliation targeted Israeli military bases and barracks for the assassination of Sayyed Fouad Shukr and civilian deaths in southern Beirut. #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/XJbnl3Vqug
— Mohamad Al Shami محمد الشامي (@mamashami) August 25, 2024
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes on Hezbollah targets in Southern Lebanon thwarted an imminent attack by the Iranian proxy.
“This morning we identified Hezbollah preparations to attack Israel. In consensus with the defense minister and the IDF chief of staff, we directed the IDF to initiate action to eliminate the threat,” said Netanyahu at the start of a Security Cabinet meeting.
Approximately 100 Israeli Air Force fighter jets, directed by IDF intelligence, destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rockets in Southern Lebanon, according to the military.
Hezbollah subsequently launched more than 200 projectiles into Israel.
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Israel Sends Delegation to Cairo Hostage Talks Despite Escalation
People walk past images of hostages kidnapped in the deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hannah McKay
JNS.org – Israel’s negotiating team was traveling to Cairo on Sunday despite tensions in the north with Hezbollah.
The delegation reportedly consists of Mossad Director David Barnea, Ronen Bar, director of the Israeli Security Agency and IDF Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon, who heads the Missing and Captive Soldiers Division.
A foreign source told the Israeli news outlet that it’s still unclear how Hezbollah’s missile and drone attack will affect Sunday’s negotiations.
(According to Al-Madayeen, Hezbollah’s media outlet, the Iran-backed terror group said it had concluded its attack for Sunday, calling it a success. Israel said it successfully preempted the attack.)
Israel’s government has highlighted its efforts to free the remaining 109 hostages captured by Hamas during its Oct. 7 invasion of southern Israel.
“This is a national mission of the highest order,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Aug. 18.
“Up until now, Hamas has been completely obstinate. It did not even send a representative to the talks in Doha. Therefore, the pressure needs to be directed at Hamas and [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar, not the Government of Israel,” he added, referring to the terror group’s decision not to send representatives to the last round of ceasefire talks.
Hamas’s delegation arrived in Cairo this weekend, according to reports.
Negotiations have been “constructive” and media reports of a “near collapse” of the talks are inaccurate, White House national security communications adviser John Kirby told reporters on Friday.
“The process is actually moving forward. It’s moving forward in the way we had outlined earlier in terms of these next rounds of talks,” he said.
Last week, the IDF recovered the bodies of six hostages who were abducted on Oct. 7, from a tunnel in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip.
The six men, who were alive when terrorists kidnapped them, were identified as Yagev Buchshtav, Alex Dancyg, Yoram Metzger, Avraham Munder, Chaim Peri and Nadav Popplewell.
Efrat Machikawa, the niece of Margalit Moses, 78, a cancer survivor who was freed from Gaza last November, and Gadi Moses, 79, who is chronically ill and remains in Hamas captivity, spoke to JNS on Sunday while en route to Dancyg’s funeral.
“Four of the six bodies that were recovered by the IDF last week were from Kibbutz Nir Oz. My parents belong to the group of pioneers who established the kibbutz,” explained Machikawa.
“My aunt and others were held with them in the tunnels; we know that they were alive. Yet they returned as bodies and while it gives us some sense of closure, it also angers us to know they could have been saved,” she said.
On Tuesday, Machikawa will also attend Peri’s funeral.
“I am always hopeful, and these days when people ask me what hope is for me, I say it is acting. We should not let the negotiators out of the room unless they seal a deal, and they should be given a full mandate,” she said.
“I am a 100% believer in cultural diplomacy. We have to bridge the gaps among all our cultures and talk diplomacy. This will bring us to an agreement,” Machikawa continued.
Last week, she co-signed a letter addressed to CIA director William Burns, Egyptian intelligence head Abbas Kamel and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, all of whom have played central roles in the hostages-for-ceasefire-and-terrorist-release talks.
“Your previous diplomatic efforts have already resulted in a deal that has set free more than one hundred hostages,” the letter stated in reference to the week-long November deal.
“We back your efforts to bring back all the remaining hostages, end the war in Gaza, prevent regional escalation, and pave a diplomatic path to healing and peace,” it continued.
“Signing a deal will be a decisive step forward on the way out of the disastrous status quo and towards a better future,” the letter added.
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ISIS Claims Deadly Germany Attack to ‘Avenge Muslims’ in Gaza
The flag of the ISIS terrorist group. Image: Reuters/Alaa Al-Marjani/File Photo.
JNS.org – Islamic State on Saturday claimed a terrorist attack in Solingen, Germany that killed three people and wounded eight others.
The organization described the attacker as a “soldier of the Islamic State,” who had targeted Christians specifically “to avenge Muslims in Palestine and everywhere.”
The fatalities were identified only as two men aged 67 and 56, and a 56-year-old woman.
Police have since detained a suspect, the internal affairs minister of North Rhein Westphalia state said early on Sunday.
“We have been following a hot lead all day,” said Herbert Reul, according to the Associated Press. “The person we have been searching for all day has been detained a short while ago.”
On Saturday, officials arrested a 15-year-old on suspicion of knowing about the planned attack and failing to inform authorities.
Police have warned the public to remain vigilant and authorities have set up an online portal for witnesses to upload information about the attack.
The post ISIS Claims Deadly Germany Attack to ‘Avenge Muslims’ in Gaza first appeared on Algemeiner.com.