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The Dismal Status Quo of Gaza: What Can Be Done?
Trucks carrying aid move, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, Feb. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri
The first phase of the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel is shakily proceeding. Hamas, despite threatening to halt agreed hostage releases, freed three more captives on Saturday, and the IDF will maintain its withdrawal from the Netzerim corridor in central Gaza. All as previously agreed.
Unfortunately, phase 2 — negotiation of a permanent war-ending truce including Hamas’ release of the 65 or so hostages remaining in captivity (after stage 1) — is not going to happen. The Netanyahu government’s preconditions for a permanent truce include not only the release of all hostages, but the disarmament of Gaza and exile of Hamas’ leaders.
Hamas, in turn, even if potentially able to negotiate the release of hundreds more Palestinian security prisoners, is not likely to agree to surrender its armed foothold in Gaza — because Hamas’ fundamentalist Jihadist credo is dedicated to the destruction of Israel, not to the rehabilitation of Gaza and relief for its displaced and distressed masses. That ideological fixation precludes military surrender.
Without a phase 2 truce deal, the picture is gloomy. To implement its original plan to uproot and disarm Hamas, including the 15,000 soldiers Hamas now claims under its command, the IDF would have to reinvade Gaza. There would be prolonged gorilla warfare, with considerable casualties on both sides. There would be collateral civilian casualties and continued dislocation of Gazan civilians. The remaining Israeli hostages will likely die in captivity. Resumption of hostilities is indeed a dismal prospect.
Some Israeli public voices fault Benjamin Netanyahu for the coming failure of negotiations, citing selfish political motives for prolonging the Israel/Hamas war. Netanyahu knows that if the war ends at this stage, there will be new elections and his reign as prime minister will likely end. This is because his current coalition partners are fixated on a total victory. For these ultra nationalists, this means not only disarmament of Hamas but long-term Israeli presence in the Gaza strip.
Absent the peril facing 65 more hostages, the case for the IDF finishing the uprooting of Hamas might be stronger.
Hamas is an abomination — a radical Jihadist sect viewing Jews as sub-humans to be pursued and killed (according to the 1988 Hamas charter). A long-standing terrorist menace, Hamas, on October 7, 2023, perpetrated the worst disaster in modern Jewish history — an onslaught including mass murder, torture, and kidnapping of children and the elderly.
Hamas’ continuing brutality and dehumanization were illustrated in the pictures of the recently released male hostages — gaunt, debilitated, and abused by 15 months of being held underground and chained. The hundreds of thousands of Israelis living within missile range of Gaza deserve to be free of the terrorist peril that Hamas poses. Yet liquidating Hamas’ lingering armed menace entails excruciating costs – jeopardizing the lives of remaining hostages and of those IDF soldiers to be re-dispatched to Gaza.
What is the impact of President Donald Trump’s plan to displace the bulk of Gazan residents and to rebuild Gaza in a fashion making it suitable for ultimate American ownership? The notion of mass, forced transfer of Gazans is delusional. As Shira Efron commented: “Turning Gaza into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East’ is not a serious plan. It is unfeasible politically, with certain rejection by dozens of countries and the Arab states. Who will pay for it? Who will carry it out? What countries would take Palestinians in? And most important, do Palestinians want to leave?”
The impracticality of the Trump plan is indeed patent. Trump envisioned Jordan and Egypt as the prime recipients of Gaza’s transferred refugees. But both King Abdullah and President el Sisi, along with Saudi Arabia, have expressed opposition to mass transfer. His threat to use foreign aid as leverage is meaningful, but unlikely to work in the face of worldwide condemnation of mass ouster of Palestinian civilians from Gaza. It also gives leverage to those who claimed that Israel’s plan all along was to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians.
The clearest impact of the Trump displacement plan is to reinforce the resistance of the Netanyahu coalition to any resolution of the Israel/Hamas war, short of total victory. Trump has radically departed from the Biden administration’s position (endorsed by several other past presidents) that the Palestinians in Gaza ought to be part of a two-state solution — forming a demilitarized, sovereign state along with West Bank Palestinians. (Trump has promised a declaration about the status of the West Bank within a short time).
In essence, Trump’s support for a Palestinian-free Gaza undercuts the widespread Israeli public pressure for Netanyahu to promptly negotiate an end to the war against Hamas and the return of all hostages. In the continued absence of a viable “day after” plan for civil administration of Gaza, the Netanyahu coalition can pursue the idea of occupation, if not Jewish settlement, in Gaza.
While the Trump plan is delusional, there is an element of justice buried within it. Trump is right that most of Gaza is now rubble and that neighboring countries have the space to accommodate relocation of many Gazans. Israel has never pushed for forced transfer of Palestinians from disputed territory and such an idea engenders both widespread condemnation and raises serious issues of international law.
But what if some Gazans want to escape the debacle that Hamas has precipitated? Shouldn’t they be allowed to make such a voluntary choice free of intimidation by Hamas? And shouldn’t Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia be subject to pressure to accommodate those Gazans who wish to leave? Arab world intransigence toward any migration of Palestinians is reminiscent of the historic exploitation of Palestinian refugees (from Israel’s 1948 war against invading Arab armies) as a destabilizing force against Israel.
Norman L. Cantor is Emeritus Professor of Law at Rutgers University Law School where he taught for 35 years. He also served as visiting professor at Columbia, Seton Hall, Tel Aviv University, and Hebrew University of Jerusalem law schools. He has published five books, scores of scholarly articles in law journals, and, more recently, numerous blog length commentaries (often on Israel/U.S. relations) in outlets like The Jerusalem Post, The Times of Israel, and The Algemeiner. His personal blog is seekingfairness.wordpress.com. He lives in Tel Aviv and in Hoboken, NJ.
The post The Dismal Status Quo of Gaza: What Can Be Done? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Says ‘Extremely Cautious’ on Success of Nuclear Talks with US
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Iran and the United States have agreed to continue nuclear talks next week, both sides said on Saturday, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi voiced “extreme cautious” about the success of the negotiations to resolve a decades-long standoff.
US President Donald Trump has signaled confidence in clinching a new pact with the Islamic Republic that would block Tehran’s path to a nuclear bomb.
Araqchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held a third round of the talks in Muscat through Omani mediators for around six hours, a week after a second round in Rome that both sides described as constructive.
“The negotiations are extremely serious and technical… there are still differences, both on major issues and on details,” Araqchi told Iranian state TV.
“There is seriousness and determination on both sides… However, our optimism about success of the talks remains extremely cautious.”
A senior US administration official described the talks as positive and productive, adding that both sides agreed to meet again in Europe “soon.”
“There is still much to do, but further progress was made on getting to a deal,” the official added.
Earlier Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi had said talks would continue next week, with another “high-level meeting” provisionally scheduled for May 3. Araqchi said Oman would announce the venue.
Ahead of the lead negotiators’ meeting, expert-level indirect talks took place in Muscat to design a framework for a potential nuclear deal.
“The presence of experts was beneficial … we will return to our capitals for further reviews to see how disagreements can be reduced,” Araqchi said.
An Iranian official, briefed about the talks, told Reuters earlier that the expert-level negotiations were “difficult, complicated and serious.”
The only aim of these talks, Araqchi said, was “to build confidence about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.”
Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran,” but he repeated a threat of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails.
Shortly after Araqchi and Witkoff began their latest indirect talks on Saturday, Iranian state media reported a massive explosion at the country’s Shahid Rajaee port near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, killing at least four people and injuring hundreds.
MAXIMUM PRESSURE
While both Tehran and Washington have said they are set on pursuing diplomacy, they remain far apart on a dispute that has rumbled on for more than two decades.
Trump, who has restored a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, ditched a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers in 2018 during his first term and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran.
Since 2019, Iran has breached the pact’s nuclear curbs including “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week Iran would have to entirely stop enriching uranium under a deal, and import any enriched uranium it needed to fuel its sole functioning atomic energy plant, Bushehr.
Tehran is willing to negotiate some curbs on its nuclear work in return for the lifting of sanctions, according to Iranian officials, but ending its enrichment program or surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile are among “Iran’s red lines that could not be compromised” in the talks.
Moreover, European states have suggested to US negotiators that a comprehensive deal should include limits preventing Iran from acquiring or finalizing the capacity to put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile, several European diplomats said.
Tehran insists its defense capabilities like its missile program are not negotiable.
An Iranian official with knowledge of the talks said on Friday that Tehran sees its missile program as a bigger obstacle in the talks.
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Palestinian Leader Abbas Names Likely Successor in Bid to Reassure World Powers
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, April 28, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas named close confidant Hussein al-Sheikh as his deputy and likely successor on Saturday, the Palestine Liberation Organization said, a step widely seen as needed to assuage international doubts over Palestinian leadership.
Abbas, 89, has headed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) since the death of veteran leader Yasser Arafat in 2004 but he had for years resisted internal reforms including the naming of a successor.
Sheikh, born in 1960, is a veteran of Fatah, the main PLO faction which was founded by Arafat and is now headed by Abbas. He is widely viewed as a pragmatist with very close ties to Israel.
He was named PLO vice president after the organization’s executive committee approved his nomination by Abbas, the PLO said in a statement.
Reform of the PA, which exercises limited autonomy in the West Bank, has been a priority for the United States and Gulf monarchies hoping the body can play a central role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pressure to reform has intensified since the start of the war in Gaza, where the PLO’s main Palestinian rival Hamas has battled Israel for more than 18 months, leaving the tiny, crowded territory in ruins.
The United States has promoted the idea of a reformed PA governing in Gaza after the war. Gulf monarchies, which are seen as the most likely source of funding for reconstruction in Gaza after the war, also want major reforms of the body.
CALL FOR HAMAS TO DISARM
Israel’s declared goal in Gaza is the destruction of Hamas but it has also ruled out giving the PA any role in government there. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
Hamas, which follows a militant Islamist ideology, has controlled Gaza since 2007 when it defeated the PA in a brief civil war after winning an election the previous year. It also has a large presence in the West Bank.
At a meeting of the PLO’s Central Council on Wednesday and Thursday that approved the position of vice president without naming an appointee, Abbas made his clearest ever call for Hamas to completely disarm and hand its weapons – and responsibility for governing in Gaza – to the PA.
Widespread corruption, lack of progress towards an independent state and increasing Israeli military incursions in the West Bank have undermined the PA’s popularity among many Palestinians.
The body has been controlled by Fatah since it was formed in the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993 and it last held parliamentary elections in 2005.
Sheikh, who was imprisoned by Israel for his activities opposing the occupation during the period 1978-89, has worked as the PA’s main contact liaising with the Israeli government under Abbas and been his envoy on visits to world powers.
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3rd Round of Nuclear Talks Between Iran, US Concludes in Oman
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – The third round of talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has concluded on Saturday, US media reported.
The two sides are understood to have discussed the US lifting of sanctions on Iran, with focuses on technical and key topics including uranium enrichment.
On April 12, the US and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, marking the first official negotiation between the two sides since the US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018 during President Donald Trump’s first term.
The second round of indirect talks took place in Rome, Italy, on April 19.
All parties, including Oman, stated that the first two rounds of talks were friendly and constructive, but Iranian media pointed out that the first two rounds were mainly framework negotiations and had not yet touched upon the core issues of disagreement.
According to media reports, one of the key issues in the expert-level negotiations will be whether Washington will allow Iran to continue uranium enrichment within the framework of its nuclear program. In response, Araghchi made it clear that Iran’s right to uranium enrichment is non-negotiable.
The US, Israel and other Western actors including the United Nation’s nuclear agency reject Iranian claims that its uranium enrichment is strictly civilian in its goals.
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