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The Long Road to Iran
People walk past images of hostages kidnapped in the deadly Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, April 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hannah McKay
JNS.org – Dismantling Hamas in Gaza and tackling Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon will clear the path to tackling Iran’s nuclear program, a former Israel Defense Forces officer has told JNS.
Professor Col. (res.) Gabi Siboni is a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and the Misgav Institute for National Security, and served as deputy and chief methodologist of the IDF’s Research Center for Force Deployment and Buildup.
According to Siboni, a seasoned consultant to the Israel Defense Forces and other Israeli security bodies, “The war with Hamas must end with the full destruction of its capabilities. Partial measures are insufficient.”
He described the hostage negotiations with Hamas as stalling tactics, telling JNS that the Hamas leadership is merely using them to deceive Israel and play for time. Hamas has no intention to release the majority of the hostages at this time, viewing them as an insurance policy, he said.
International pressure, particularly from the United States, has hindered Israel’s ability to attack Hamas effectively and maneuver it into a situation where hostage talks might actually have a chance of freeing the captives, he added.
“The large pauses of three to four months were at the behest of the Americans, who constantly pressured Israel not to press Hamas and to reach a deal” with the terrorist group. Such pressure, he added, reflects Washington’s total lack of understanding of the Middle East’s brutal realities.
Relentless military pressure across all of Gaza, constrained only by the need to manage Israel’s military resources, should be the compass guiding Israeli operations, he said.
“There should be no breaks, no interruptions in the fighting,” Siboni said. International misunderstandings of the conflict and the Israeli War Cabinet’s mistaken willingness to accede to this pressure have led to a lack of sufficient pressure being applied to Hamas, he added.
Attempts to reach interim agreements that would see Hamas release 20 to 30 kidnapped Israelis in exchange for a ceasefire of some six weeks would only result in the IDF needing to go back and fight in worse conditions, and would likely doom the rest of the hostages, Siboni cautioned.
On the other hand, sufficient military pressure could convince Hamas’s leadership to release all of the hostages in exchange for safe passage out of Gaza, he said. This, he added, would be a deal Israel should accept.
In the absence of any deal, Israel has no choice but to try to get the hostages out by force, according to Siboni.
Israeli control of the crossings between Egypt and Gaza, particularly at Rafah and the Philadelphi Corridor, he said, was critical to prevent Hamas’s resupply and reorganization.
To achieve its war aim of ending Hamas rule in the Strip, Israel will also need to set up a temporary military administration in Gaza until an appropriate civilian element can be found, he said. This civilian element will need to be under permanent Israeli security control to prevent a Hamas resurgence, he added.
Setting up a military administration and dismantling Hamas’s military infrastructure are inseparable goals, he said, criticizing the Israeli defense establishment’s reported resistance against such a measure as unrealistic.
He stressed that it was also important to adjust the public’s expectations regarding the duration of operations in Gaza. “When people ask how it can be that the IDF needs to return three times to the same areas in Gaza, I point to Tulkarem in Judea and Samaria. The IDF has returned there dozens of times since ‘Operation Defensive Shield’ [in 2002],” he said. “Hence this question is superfluous and lacks significance. We will go back again and again to destroy any developing terror threat.”
Turning to the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Siboni said that once Israel begins approaching its key goals in Gaza, following the Rafah operation, the capturing of the Philadelphi Corridor and establishing a routine of targeted operations in northern Gaza, the time will come to turn the IDF’s full attention north.
“We are beginning to approach this time,” he said.
Establishing IDF control in southern Lebanon to effectively neutralize Hezbollah’s capabilities is an unavoidable and critical security need, he said.
“I do not see a way to end the campaign in Lebanon without IDF military control in southern Lebanon,” he told JNS, arguing that such control is essential to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding itself after a future Israeli ground offensive.
“It’s true that this will be a tough reality. Control of southern Lebanon means a return to roadside bombs and difficult fighting. But I see no other way,” he said.
An Israeli re-establishment of the security zone in southern Lebanon might not necessarily lead to immediate full-scale war with Hezbollah, he said. However, should Hezbollah or Israel initiate an escalation, this will present Israel with the opportunity to eliminate much of Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and missiles.
“Hezbollah would lose the lion’s share of its capabilities in southern Lebanon,” he said.
A weakened Hezbollah would then clear a path for dealing with Iran’s nuclear program, which is making alarming progress, he said.
“The path to dealing with Iran becomes much easier without Hamas and with a diminished Hezbollah,” said Siboni, noting that Iran is heavily reliant on its proxies. “Without its proxies, Iran does not have much. They sent missiles on April 14, and we saw those capabilities. Israel can strike many times harder against an Iran that lacks Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah,” he stated.
“It’s also worth remembering that Iran is trying to flood Judea and Samaria with weapons via Jordan to create a new war front, and we must act against this. We are in a major conflict against Iran, and it cannot be ended without dealing with the head of the snake,” he said.
All of this means the IDF will need to be enlarged and reformed, Siboni concluded, adding that “this is the purpose of having a military.” It will need to be active in Gaza, southern Lebanon and Judea and Samaria, and remain actively engaged in these regions to prevent the resurgence of hostile Iranian-backed jihadist forces to maintain long-term security.
The post The Long Road to Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Missle from Yemen Targets Dead Sea Area
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands in front of an F-35 stealth fighter at the IAF’s Nevatim base, July 9, 2019. Photo: Amos Ben Gershom / GPO.
i24 News – The Israel Defense Forces said that a Houthi missile was intercepted outside of Israeli territory, although sirens blared in the eastern Negev and Dead Sea area. The Yemen-based, Iran-backed terrorist group said that they had targeted the Nevatim airbase.
The post Missle from Yemen Targets Dead Sea Area first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Says ‘Extremely Cautious’ on Success of Nuclear Talks with US
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Iran and the United States have agreed to continue nuclear talks next week, both sides said on Saturday, though Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi voiced “extreme cautious” about the success of the negotiations to resolve a decades-long standoff.
US President Donald Trump has signaled confidence in clinching a new pact with the Islamic Republic that would block Tehran’s path to a nuclear bomb.
Araqchi and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held a third round of the talks in Muscat through Omani mediators for around six hours, a week after a second round in Rome that both sides described as constructive.
“The negotiations are extremely serious and technical… there are still differences, both on major issues and on details,” Araqchi told Iranian state TV.
“There is seriousness and determination on both sides… However, our optimism about success of the talks remains extremely cautious.”
A senior US administration official described the talks as positive and productive, adding that both sides agreed to meet again in Europe “soon.”
“There is still much to do, but further progress was made on getting to a deal,” the official added.
Earlier Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi had said talks would continue next week, with another “high-level meeting” provisionally scheduled for May 3. Araqchi said Oman would announce the venue.
Ahead of the lead negotiators’ meeting, expert-level indirect talks took place in Muscat to design a framework for a potential nuclear deal.
“The presence of experts was beneficial … we will return to our capitals for further reviews to see how disagreements can be reduced,” Araqchi said.
An Iranian official, briefed about the talks, told Reuters earlier that the expert-level negotiations were “difficult, complicated and serious.”
The only aim of these talks, Araqchi said, was “to build confidence about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.”
Trump, in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday, said “I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran,” but he repeated a threat of military action against Iran if diplomacy fails.
Shortly after Araqchi and Witkoff began their latest indirect talks on Saturday, Iranian state media reported a massive explosion at the country’s Shahid Rajaee port near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, killing at least four people and injuring hundreds.
MAXIMUM PRESSURE
While both Tehran and Washington have said they are set on pursuing diplomacy, they remain far apart on a dispute that has rumbled on for more than two decades.
Trump, who has restored a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, ditched a 2015 nuclear pact between Iran and six world powers in 2018 during his first term and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran.
Since 2019, Iran has breached the pact’s nuclear curbs including “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week Iran would have to entirely stop enriching uranium under a deal, and import any enriched uranium it needed to fuel its sole functioning atomic energy plant, Bushehr.
Tehran is willing to negotiate some curbs on its nuclear work in return for the lifting of sanctions, according to Iranian officials, but ending its enrichment program or surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile are among “Iran’s red lines that could not be compromised” in the talks.
Moreover, European states have suggested to US negotiators that a comprehensive deal should include limits preventing Iran from acquiring or finalizing the capacity to put a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile, several European diplomats said.
Tehran insists its defense capabilities like its missile program are not negotiable.
An Iranian official with knowledge of the talks said on Friday that Tehran sees its missile program as a bigger obstacle in the talks.
The post Iran Says ‘Extremely Cautious’ on Success of Nuclear Talks with US first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Palestinian Leader Abbas Names Likely Successor in Bid to Reassure World Powers
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas attends the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, April 28, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas named close confidant Hussein al-Sheikh as his deputy and likely successor on Saturday, the Palestine Liberation Organization said, a step widely seen as needed to assuage international doubts over Palestinian leadership.
Abbas, 89, has headed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the Palestinian Authority (PA) since the death of veteran leader Yasser Arafat in 2004 but he had for years resisted internal reforms including the naming of a successor.
Sheikh, born in 1960, is a veteran of Fatah, the main PLO faction which was founded by Arafat and is now headed by Abbas. He is widely viewed as a pragmatist with very close ties to Israel.
He was named PLO vice president after the organization’s executive committee approved his nomination by Abbas, the PLO said in a statement.
Reform of the PA, which exercises limited autonomy in the West Bank, has been a priority for the United States and Gulf monarchies hoping the body can play a central role in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pressure to reform has intensified since the start of the war in Gaza, where the PLO’s main Palestinian rival Hamas has battled Israel for more than 18 months, leaving the tiny, crowded territory in ruins.
The United States has promoted the idea of a reformed PA governing in Gaza after the war. Gulf monarchies, which are seen as the most likely source of funding for reconstruction in Gaza after the war, also want major reforms of the body.
CALL FOR HAMAS TO DISARM
Israel’s declared goal in Gaza is the destruction of Hamas but it has also ruled out giving the PA any role in government there. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he opposes the creation of a Palestinian state.
Hamas, which follows a militant Islamist ideology, has controlled Gaza since 2007 when it defeated the PA in a brief civil war after winning an election the previous year. It also has a large presence in the West Bank.
At a meeting of the PLO’s Central Council on Wednesday and Thursday that approved the position of vice president without naming an appointee, Abbas made his clearest ever call for Hamas to completely disarm and hand its weapons – and responsibility for governing in Gaza – to the PA.
Widespread corruption, lack of progress towards an independent state and increasing Israeli military incursions in the West Bank have undermined the PA’s popularity among many Palestinians.
The body has been controlled by Fatah since it was formed in the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993 and it last held parliamentary elections in 2005.
Sheikh, who was imprisoned by Israel for his activities opposing the occupation during the period 1978-89, has worked as the PA’s main contact liaising with the Israeli government under Abbas and been his envoy on visits to world powers.
The post Palestinian Leader Abbas Names Likely Successor in Bid to Reassure World Powers first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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