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‘Weakens Its Image’: Experts Explain Why Hezbollah Stopped Announcing Terrorist Deaths Over Past Two Months
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem leads prayers during funeral of Hezbollah senior leader Ibrahim Aqil and Hezbollah member Mahmoud Hamad, who were killed in Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, in Beirut, Lebanon, Sept. 22, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
Since the war between Israel and Hezbollah began to escalate this September, the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist organization has stopped announcing its casualties through public relations channels. Experts tell The Algemeiner this is likely because of the breakdown of Hezbollah’s command and control structure or in order to help control narratives around the conflict.
Rather than death notices being published by Hezbollah itself — as was the case from October 2023 to September 2024 — terrorist deaths have mainly been reported by open intelligence sources based on funeral notices and social media posts.
Israeli assessments suggest that over 2,000 Hezbollah fighters have been killed since October 2023, said Jason Brodsky, the policy director of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). This number includes upwards of 1,000 terrorists killed since the situation in northern Israel, which borders Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon, began to escalate just under two months ago.
Brodsky’s approximate number is somewhat supported by at least one open-source intelligence gatherer who has identified almost 1,500 Hezbollah casualties as of Nov. 11, 2024, primarily using funeral notices found on local social media channels. This includes about 900 deaths since September. Experts estimate the number of Hezbollah fighters wounded to be three or four times higher than the death count, including the thousands of Hezbollah fighters injured in Israel’s pager attack in September, when communications devices used by the terrorists exploded simultaneously across Lebanon.
Hezbollah is widely considered to have a pre-war fighting force of around 20,000-25,000 militiamen working full-time, with tens of thousands more in the reserves.
Hezbollah has good reason, experts say, to hide its true casualty numbers as the terrorist organization appears to still be suffering from command-and-control disruptions due to Israeli military pressure. As a result, Hezbollah has been forced to use guerilla tactics rather than operating as a coherent military force.
While Israel has suffered almost 100 civilian and military casualties in its offensive against Hezbollah, along with relentless rocket fire and drone attacks from the Islamist organization on the country’s north — and at times, in the heart of Tel Aviv — the level of damage to Israel’s home front and critical infrastructure has been far less than expected.
Max Abrahms, professor of international relations at Northeastern University, explained that terrorist groups such as Hezbollah often lie.
“Sometimes they conceal information about their own losses,” he said.
“The reason why they do that,” Abrahms continued, “is because they want to create the perception that they’re more successful than they really are. And terrorist groups very often have to do that because, in general, terrorist groups are losers.”
Over the past few months, Israel has decimated the leadership of Hezbollah, with almost its entire top level of command being killed — including Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader. Israel has long been worried that a war with Hezbollah could result in massive losses for the Jewish state, as the Lebanese terror group reportedly had more than 120,000 rockets over various ranges in its arsenal, primarily sponsored by Iran. Israeli estimates suggest Hezbollah now retains only 20 percent of its missile arsenal and that Israel has eliminated 70 percent of its drone arsenal, according to Brodsky.
“Hezbollah may want to cover up such losses as it weakens its image as Iran’s terror proxy crown jewel of resistance,” Brodsky added.
Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former White House deputy national security adviser, agreed.
“The usual terrorist pattern is to exaggerate the number of civilian casualties and deny the number of terrorists killed,” he said. “This is done to mask the impact of Israeli strikes on armed Hezbollah men and keep up Hezbollah morale.”
After Israel’s pager attack, air and ground campaign, and targeted assassinations of Hezbollah leaders, the group is struggling to keep up its rocket fire and military operations against Israel.
At the same time, Hezbollah may still be able to manufacture weapons.
“Hezbollah may still have capacity to manufacture missiles and drones in Lebanon proper, and that’s not to mention ongoing Iranian attempts to ship weapons and supplies,” Abrams said. “But, those corridors have become more restricted with Israel’s operations.”
The post ‘Weakens Its Image’: Experts Explain Why Hezbollah Stopped Announcing Terrorist Deaths Over Past Two Months first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students
Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad
Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.
The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.
Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.
A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.
The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.
The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.
The post Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.
Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.
Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.
“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.
The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.
The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.
Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.
Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.
PRESSURE
Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.
The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.
The post Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy
Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.
There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.
Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.
Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.
“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.
The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.
Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.
The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.
It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.
“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.
“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.
Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.
The post Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.