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Why the Houthis Think They Can Beat the US — And Why They’re Wrong

Protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, stand near a screen displaying senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya during a rally to show support to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen, Oct. 18, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah

The Houthi rebels have spent years crafting an image of themselves as a hardened, battle-tested force capable of standing up to the most powerful militaries in the region. Now, in the midst of heightened tensions in the Red Sea and ongoing attacks on commercial shipping, they’ve extended that illusion to the United States. Emboldened by years of asymmetric victories against Saudi Arabia, bolstered by Iranian weaponry, and legitimized by propaganda that casts them as the spearhead of a broader “resistance” movement, the Houthis have convinced themselves — and their supporters — that they are capable of not just resisting US military pressure, but prevailing against it.

This belief is a dangerous miscalculation.

Their confidence stems, in part, from real battlefield experience. For nearly a decade, the Houthis have survived and even thrived despite relentless airstrikes, economic blockades, and shifting coalitions aligned against them. Saudi Arabia, with its modern air force and US-supplied munitions, failed to achieve decisive victory, and the perception within Houthi circles is that American power will be no more effective. Their propaganda machine amplifies every moment of defiance — a ship that reroutes, a drone that gets through, a Western strike that doesn’t dismantle their network — and translates it into a narrative of victory. To them, every surviving radar station is proof that the empire can bleed.

But the United States is not Saudi Arabia. The comparison reflects not just poor military judgment, but a profound misunderstanding of American strategic capacity and intent. Unlike regional actors, the US is not burdened by the political minefields of sectarian loyalties, tribal politics, or proximity. It can strike from the Mediterranean, the Gulf of Aden, or from submarines under the Red Sea. It does not need to occupy territory to destroy critical infrastructure. And when Washington decides that a threat must be neutralized, it tends to play a long game — using precision, partnerships, and pressure points until that threat is either dismantled or buried under economic and military consequences.

The Houthis lack the strategic depth to survive this kind of prolonged targeting. They are not a state with layered defenses, they are a militia with a territory — and that territory, while difficult to fully conquer, is not indestructible. Their command centers, storage depots, and drone assembly lines can only be relocated so many times. A concentrated American campaign, especially if paired with increased maritime interdiction and regional intelligence sharing, would gradually degrade the very tools that have made Houthi escalation possible. Their coastal control gives them influence over shipping routes, but also makes them highly visible. Their reliance on external supply chains — from Iran through smuggling routes and covert logistics — exposes them to disruption and surveillance. The longer they play this game, the more they risk pulling the US into a sustained campaign that their organization is not structurally prepared to endure.

Yet the illusion persists — and may even intensify. Faced with growing losses, the Houthis are likely to lean further into psychological warfare. Propaganda will surge. They will publish shaky videos of “downed” drones, stage missile launches, and portray every Western casualty, real or fabricated, as a blow against imperialism. Their goal is not battlefield victory but narrative control. If they can’t defeat the US militarily, they’ll try to erode its political will through a war of images, slogans, and social media virality. In doing so, they hope to sway anti-interventionist voices in the West and rally populist support across the Arab world.

Meanwhile, Iran will tighten its grip. The deeper the Houthis get, the more reliant they become on Tehran’s support — not just for weapons, but for expertise. We may see the quiet transfer of more sophisticated drone systems, longer-range missiles, and even the arrival of Iranian advisers on the ground to coordinate more complex attacks. Tehran has every interest in keeping US forces tied up in Yemen and distracted from other fronts like Syria or the Gulf. But that support will come at a cost: it will make the Houthis more vulnerable to becoming a direct target of Western-Iranian proxy escalation.

All of this is moving toward a dangerous inflection point. The Houthis are pushing the boundaries of what they can get away with — harassing ships in a key global chokepoint, attacking US assets, and daring the world’s most powerful navy to respond. Eventually, that response will escalate in ways they cannot control. A more aggressive US posture, especially in coordination with allies like the UK and France, could impose a maritime siege, take out port infrastructure, or even strike symbolic leadership targets. If the Houthis attempt to retaliate by mining the Bab el-Mandeb Strait or attacking Western vessels more directly, they may trigger a regional conflagration that leaves northern Yemen not as a “liberated” zone but a ruin.

This is why the illusion matters. The Houthis are not just overestimating their strength — they are gambling with the future of their movement and the lives of millions under their control. Their strategic calculus is shaped more by ideology and self-delusion than by sober assessments of military reality. The longer they cling to this fantasy of victory, the closer they come to waking up to its catastrophic consequences.

Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx 

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French Foreign Minister Says Recognizing Palestinian State Defies Hamas, Despite Terror Group’s Praise

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot speaks to the media on the day he attends the European Union Foreign Ministers council in Brussels, Belgium, July 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot insisted on Friday that President Emmanuel Macron’s push to recognize a Palestinian state defies Hamas’s interests — even as the terrorist group welcomed the decision.

“Hamas has consistently rejected the two-state solution. By recognizing Palestine, France is rejecting the stance of this terrorist organization and affirming its support for peace over war,” the top French diplomat said in a post on X.

However, Hamas praised France’s latest announcement, calling it “a positive step in the right direction.”

France’s initiative is part of “a political development that reflects growing international conviction in the justice of the Palestinian cause and the failure of the Israeli occupation to distort facts or suppress the will of free nations,” said the Palestinian terrorist group, which has ruled Gaza for nearly two decades.

Hamas also said that such international steps “represent political and moral pressure” on Israel.

On Thursday, Macron announced that France will recognize a Palestinian state and issue a formal statement at the United Nations General Assembly in September as part of its “commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.”

“The urgent priority today is to end the war in Gaza and to bring relief to the civilian population,” the French leader said in a post on X.

Macron called for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages still held by Hamas, and increased humanitarian aid for Gaza.

He also stressed the need to demilitarize the Iran-backed terrorist group, rebuild the war-torn enclave, and create a Palestinian state that recognizes Israel and ensures regional security.

“The French people want peace in the Middle East. It is our responsibility — as French citizens, alongside Israelis, Palestinians, and our European and international partners — to prove that peace is possible,” the French leader wrote.

However, despite Macron’s continued efforts, his controversial diplomatic initiative to recognize a Palestinian state faces widespread public opposition, with nearly 80 percent of French citizens rejecting the move.

A recent survey conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion (IFOP) on behalf of the Representative Council of Jewish Institutions of France (CRIF) — the main representative body of French Jews — found that 78 percent of respondents opposed a “hasty, immediate, and unconditional recognition of a Palestinian state.”

According to IFOP’s survey, nearly half of French people (47 percent) believe that recognition of a Palestinian state should only be considered after the release of the remaining hostages captured by Hamas during the group’s invasion of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

The survey also revealed deep concerns about the consequences of such a premature recognition, with 51 percent of respondents fearing a resurgence of antisemitism in France and 50 percent believing it could strengthen Hamas’s position in the Middle East.

France’s policy move comes after Spain, Norway, Ireland, and Slovenia officially recognized a Palestinian state last year, claiming that such a move would contribute to fostering a two-state solution and promote lasting peace in the region.

On Friday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas praised France’s decision, calling it a “victory for the Palestinian cause.”

“This reflects France’s commitment to supporting the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights to their land and their homeland,” Abbas said.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned France’s announcement, describing it as a “reward for terrorism.”

“Such a move … risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became,” the Israeli leader said in a post on X.

“A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel. They seek a state instead of Israel,” he continued.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also denounced the move, calling it “reckless” and saying it “only serves Hamas propaganda.”

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Costa Rica Adopts IHRA Definition of Antisemitism, Joining Latin America’s Fight Against Rising Jew-Hatred

Part of an exhibit on the Holocaust supported by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA). Photo: courtesy of IHRA.

Costa Rica has formally adopted the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s (IHRA) working definition of antisemitism, becoming the sixth country in Latin America to do so as antisemitic rhetoric and anti-Jewish hatred continue to rise across the region.

Local authorities announced the decision following meetings with a delegation from the American Jewish Committee’s (AJC) Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs.

Among the Latin American countries that have already endorsed the IHRA definition are Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay.

An intergovernmental organization comprising dozens of countries, including the United States and Israel, IHRA adopted the “working definition” of antisemitism in 2016.

Since its adoption, the definition has gained widespread support from Jewish organizations and lawmakers around the world, and is now used by hundreds of governmental bodies, including the European Union and the United Nations.

According to the definition, antisemitism “is a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews. Rhetorical and physical manifestations of antisemitism are directed toward Jewish or non-Jewish individuals and/or their property, toward Jewish community institutions and religious facilities.”

Beyond traditional antisemitic acts associated with the medieval period and Nazi Germany, the definition provides contemporary examples of antisemitism found in public life, media, education, workplaces, and religious settings — including Holocaust denial and modern forms targeting Israel, such as demonizing the Jewish state and denying its right to exist.

Jewish organizations hailed Costa Rica’s recent decision as a significant milestone in the global fight against Jew-hatred, amid a worldwide surge in antisemitism following the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

“We are grateful that Costa Rica has joined the growing number of nations that view the IHRA definition as an essential guidepost to recognize antisemitism in its various forms so it can be properly addressed,” Dina Siegel Vann, director of AJC’s Institute for Latin American Affairs, said in a statement.

“We urge all nations to take this important step to protect their Jewish communities and uphold their Democratic values,” she continued.

Gilbert Meltzer, president of Costa Rica’s Jewish Community, commended the government’s decision to “support morality and combat discrimination.”

“The increase of hate speech and attacks on Jews all over the world, especially after Oct. 7, demands ethical decisions and firm actions as this one,” Meltzer said in a statement.

The European Jewish Congress also praised Costa Rica’s latest move, describing it as “a timely and courageous step” amid a rising climate of hostility against Jews.

“Defining hate is the first step to combating it. A principled move that must inspire others,” the statement read.

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‘Reckless Decision’: US Officials Blast France for Recognizing Palestinian State

US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron react on the day of a press conference, at the White House in Washington, DC, US, Feb. 24, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

US officials were quick to castigate France for its intention to recognize a Palestinian state in September at the United Nations General Assembly, describing the policy as “reckless” and a move that undermines efforts to end the ongoing war in Gaza.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who announced the decision on X, published a letter sent to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas confirming France’s intention to press ahead with Palestinian recognition.

“True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognize the State of Palestine,” Macron said. “I will make this solemn announcement at the United Nations General Assembly next September.”

France, home to the third largest Jewish community in the world, will become the first major Western country to recognize a Palestinian state, after smaller nations more generally more critical of Israel did so last year.

Washington lambasted France’s announcement.

“The United States strongly rejects Emmanuel Macron’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on the X social media platform. “This reckless decision only serves Hamas propaganda and sets back peace. It is a slap in the face to the victims of October 7th.”

Likewise, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee slammed France for moving to recognize a Palestinian state.

“How clever! If Macron can just ‘declare’ the existence of a state perhaps the UK can ‘declare’ France a British colony!” he said on X. “Macron’s unilateral ‘declaration’ of a ‘Palestinian’ state didn’t say WHERE it would be. I can now exclusively disclose that France will offer the French Riviera & the new nation will be called ‘Franc-en-Stine.’”

Huckabee has long opposed the recognition of a Palestinian state. In June, the ambassador said that he did not think that an independent Palestinian state remains a goal of US foreign policy.

US President Donald Trump on Friday dismissed Macron’s plan, saying it won’t make a difference.

“What he says doesn’t matter,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “He’s a very good guy. I like him, but that statement doesn’t carry weight.”

Trump added, “”Look, he’s a different kind of a guy. He’s okay. He’s a team player, pretty much. But here’s the good news: What he says doesn’t matter. It’s not going to change anything.”

Israeli officials lambasted France’s plan as a “reward for terrorism,” arguing a Palestinian state at this time would become a hub for terrorism and likely a proxy of Iran, which has long backed the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas in Gaza.

“A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel — not to live in peace beside it. Let’s be clear: the Palestinians do not seek a state alongside Israel; they seek a state instead of Israel,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a post on X.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar condemned Macron’s “absurd and unserious” decision that Paris will formally recognize a Palestinian state.

“A Palestinian state would be a Hamas state — just as the [Israeli] withdrawal from the Gaza Strip 20 years ago led to Hamas’s takeover there,” he said in a statement posted on X.

“Israel’s attempt to base its security on Palestinian promises to fight terror failed entirely in the Oslo process,” he continued, referring to the 1990s peace initiative between Israel and the Palestinians that sought a two-state solution. “Israel will no longer gamble with its security and its future.”

Israel maintains that Palestinian statehood should only come as the result of a negotiated peace agreement that ensures Israel’s security and recognition as a Jewish state.

The French announcement comes amid ongoing hostilities in Gaza, where Israeli military operations continue following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, invasion of and massacre across southern Israel.

Macron defended the decision to recognize a Palestinian state in a statement, saying that the proclamation underscores that France is “true to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.”

“We must finally build the State of Palestine, ensure its viability and enable it, by accepting its demilitarization and fully recognizing Israel, to contribute to the security of all in the Middle East,” he added.

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