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Are We Paying Attention to Iran’s Strategy?
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, July 18, 2016. Photo: Amir Kholousi/ISNA/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Far too much attention has been given to President Donald Trump’s strategy in the current conflict, and far too little to that of the Islamic Republic.
It is an underestimation of Iran and an indictment of the West.
The common belief is that Iran’s original goal was nuclear capability, either to prevent the US from attacking it (the North Korea strategy) or to use it against the Great and the Little Satan. Perhaps.
But the mullahs had/have a second strategic goal — which appears to be working quite well: The undermining and elimination of political, military, economic, and social ties between the US and what has always been their alliance base: primarily NATO, the EU, and the UN, but also the Gulf Arab States and parts of South America.
October 7th
The horrors of Oct. 7 were not designed to destroy Israel — neither Iran nor Hamas believed the terror organization could do that, even if Hezbollah had helped. After years of relatively small-scale attacks and limited Israeli responses followed by ceasefires, this monstrosity was designed to ensure massive Israeli retaliation that would produce a significant political cost on the Jewish State.
With quick and organized PR, Palestinian civilian suffering became the central image of the conflict. The images and the lies they told were designed to isolate Israel diplomatically, erode its standing in Western societies, and reignite deeply rooted hostility across the Arab and Muslim worlds.
While Israel, in fact, conducted perhaps the most careful military campaign in history, both real and (mostly) false images and stories were used to cast Israel as a villain, which committed “genocide.” Even though casualty statistics by independent groups show that never happened, and ample proof that Israel never had a goal to kill civilians intentionally.
In many spheres, the Iranian and Hamas objective against Israel was achieved. France, the UK, Canada, Australia, Italy, the EU as a body, Denmark, and many more all pulled away from Jerusalem. (Norway, Spain, and Ireland were always hostile, so they don’t count. The UN doesn’t either.) This group extends to Democrats in our own Congress, leftists on campus, and the journalistic chattering class.
The damage calculation is not complete.
Fighting America
The same principle exists for Iran’s 47-year war against the US. Iranian attacks against America have been carefully structured to do damage, but only enough to claim bragging rights — not enough to produce a backlash. Until now.
- In 1979, Americans were held hostage for 444 days in the US Embassy in Tehran.
- The Marine Barracks bombing in Beirut killed 241 US servicemembers and 58 French soldiers.
- William Francis Buckley (1984), US Navy diver Robert Stethem (1985), and Colonel William R. Higgins (1988) were tortured and murdered. In 2007, Robert Levinson was presumed kidnapped by Iran and killed.
- In 1996, the Khobar Towers attack occurred.
- Iran was responsible for the construction, strategy, and use of IEDs during the Iraq war.
- In 2011, Iranian plots in Washington, D.C, involved killing a Saudi diplomat and attacking the Israeli and Saudi embassies. That year, Iran also began taking steps to mine the Persian Gulf.
- US Naval Intelligence shows Iranian warships in the Red Sea — where Iran has no border — since 2011 — as part of Iran’s support for the Houthi rebellion in Yemen.
- In 2012, chairman of the Iranian chiefs of staff, Hassan Firuzabadi, said, “We do have the plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, since a member of the military must plan for all scenarios.”
- Iranian war games in 2015 were designed against American forces and passed skills along to proxy forces. Beginning in 2016, swarms of Iranian fast boats harassed American ships and others in the Persian Gulf. Iran captured American sailors and released video footage of them — a violation of their rights under the Geneva Convention.
- In 2018, US intelligence revealed that Iran was responsible for more than 600 American military deaths and thousands wounded by Iranian IEDs in Iraq.
- In 2024, three military contractors working in Jordan as contractors were killed in a drone attack, and 40 others were injured.
Each damaging, most deadly. None, in isolation, enough to engender an American military response. But all of these — including many unlisted incidents — showed that Tehran had the US in its sights.
The Denouement
At the same time, Israeli and American intelligence were monitoring the enrichment of Iranian uranium beyond Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) limits and ballistic missile ranges beyond UN sanctions. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), as loud an opponent of President Trump and this war as there is, acknowledged that Iran had enough uranium to make nuclear bombs, but added there was no reason to do anything about it because Iran’s missiles couldn’t yet reach the United States.
This is not an uncommon view — if Iran couldn’t reach us with a nuclear weapon, it was not our war.
But as Iran’s capabilities grew, the margins narrowed. And the United States and Israel found themselves in a war they didn’t ask for, didn’t want, but have to win.
Unfortunately, the allied response in Europe and across the world produced the diplomatic response Iran wanted.
The mullah government doesn’t care how many of their people die — they killed 35,000+ civilians in the streets in January — they care about the ultimate “victory.” The more European countries and institutions, plus the UN, castigate and punish Israel and the US, the happier the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards Corp are. The histrionic anti-American and anti-Israel and antisemitic caterwauling has Iran claiming it is winning.
The Other World
To be fair, there is another world.
Venezuela’s presidential candidate, Maria Corina Machado, received a large welcome in Spain by an estimated 100,000 people after she refused to meet with Spain’s Prime Minister. And Israel’s relations with Latin American countries are on the upswing. Increasingly concerned about China, Japan and South Korea have signaled that they are ready to step in and purchase Israeli defense systems. India is a reliable ally.
Most importantly, the people of the Arab states themselves, and the people of Iran and Africa, have moved in the opposite direction from Europe, the UN, and American leftists. And, while it remains tentative, even the Lebanese government has banned Hezbollah and has announced itself ready to find peace with Israel.
Syria, while a very unfinished product, appears unwilling to antagonize Israel and has, apparently, ceased its attacks on the Druze areas in the south.
No country has left the Abraham Accords, and Kazakhstan joined in November 2025. Israel maintains trade and diplomatic relations with all Central Asian countries.
And finally, the Palestinians appear to have lost favor among the Arab states as Iran’s influence and money — and Qatar’s money — have crashed.
The American strategy has yet to play out. Depending on how the rest of the war goes, Iran could find itself even worse off than before the war started.
Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center.
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Attacks in South Lebanon Strain Ceasefire on Eve of Washington Talks
Smoke rises after an Israeli strike, amid escalating hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran continues, in southern Lebanon, March 24, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
An Israeli strike killed two people in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, Lebanon‘s state news agency reported, and Hezbollah said it launched an attack drone at Israeli forces in the south, further straining a ceasefire between the Iran-backed terrorist group and Israel.
On the eve of talks in Washington between Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Beirut would seek an extension of the 10-day, US-mediated ceasefire, which is set to expire on Sunday.
Hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel reignited on March 2, when the Lebanese Islamist group opened fire in support of Iran.
The US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon emerged separately from Washington’s efforts to resolve its conflict with Tehran, though Iran had called for Lebanon to be included in any broader truce. The United States has denied any link between the tracks.
Lebanon‘s state-run National News Agency said the Israeli strike hit a car in al-Tiri, a village in south Lebanon, killing two people inside. The Israeli military didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Hezbollah said it attacked an Israeli artillery position in southern Lebanon with a drone, in response to what it said was an Israeli violation of the ceasefire. The Israeli military said it had intercepted “a hostile aircraft” launched by Hezbollah toward Israeli soldiers in south Lebanon.
More than 2,400 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel launched an offensive in response to Hezbollah’s March 2 attack, according to Lebanese authorities. Israel says the vast majority of those killed have been Hezbollah terrorists, who often embed themselves in civilian areas.
Israeli forces have seized a belt of territory at the border where troops remain, saying they aim to create a buffer zone to shield northern Israel from attacks by Hezbollah, which fired hundreds of rockets at Israel during the conflict.
BEIRUT TO SEEK END TO ISRAELI DEMOLITIONS
Aoun said Beirut’s envoy to Thursday’s talks, Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Nada Moawad, would seek a ceasefire extension and a halt to demolitions being carried out by Israel in villages in the south, according to a statement.
A Lebanese official said Beirut wants a ceasefire extension as a prerequisite for talks to expand beyond the ambassadorial level to the next phase, in which Lebanon would push for an Israeli withdrawal, the return of Lebanese detained in Israel, and a delineation of the land border.
Hezbollah, which says the Lebanon ceasefire was the fruit of Iranian pressure, has condemned Beirut for seeking talks with Israel, reflecting wider splits with the government that has sought Hezbollah’s peaceful disarmament for a year.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, in a speech, said Israel had taken a “historic decision to negotiate directly with Lebanon after more than 40 years” whilst also calling it a “failed state.”
“I call on the Government of Lebanon: Let’s work together against the terror state that Hezbollah built in your territory. This cooperation is needed by you even more than by us,” he said.
The Israeli military said it had killed two terrorists who had crossed its “Forward Defense Line” in south Lebanon on Tuesday and approached Israeli soldiers, saying they had violated the ceasefire.
DRUZE LEADER URGES CLEAR AGENDA, INCLUDING WITHDRAWAL
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to attend Thursday’s meeting. Israel will be represented by its ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter.
Aoun has cited goals including halting Israeli attacks on Lebanon and securing the withdrawal of Israeli troops. In a speech on Friday, he said a ceasefire should be transformed into “permanent agreements that preserve the rights of our people, the unity of our land, and the sovereignty of our nation.”
Announcing the ceasefire on April 16, US President Donald Trump said he had instructed Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine to work with the two countries to achieve lasting peace.
Lebanon and Israel have remained in an official state of war since the establishment of Israel in 1948.
Lebanon‘s most senior Shi’ite state official, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, is against face-to-face negotiations with Israel, saying Beirut could have negotiated indirectly.
Lebanon‘s leading Druze politician, Walid Jumblatt, said on Tuesday that the most Lebanon could offer is an update to a 1949 armistice agreement with Israel.
In comments to reporters after a meeting with Berri, Jumblatt said there should be a clear agenda for talks that includes a withdrawal of Israeli troops still in southern Lebanon.
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Dutch Prosecutors Seek 30-Year Sentence for Alleged Syrian Torturer Who Backed Assad
Fighters of the ruling Syrian body inspect the site of a mass grave from the rule of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, according to residents, after the ousting of al-Assad, in Najha, Syria, Dec. 17, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Prosecutors in the Netherlands on Wednesday demanded a 30–year prison sentence for a Syrian man accused of torturing and raping prisoners when he was a member of a militia that backed the government of former president Bashar al-Assad.
Prosecutors have charged 58-year-old Rafik A., whose last name is withheld by the Dutch court, with 25 counts including torture, sexual violence, and rape as crimes against humanity against nine people in 2013 and 2014.
Rafik A. has repeatedly denied any involvement with the alleged crimes. The case is the first in the Netherlands to deal with alleged atrocity crimes in Syria committed by pro-government forces. It is also the first time Dutch prosecutors have charged sexual violence as a crime against humanity.
Cases against Assad-era security officials have also been brought in other European countries, including Germany.
Witnesses who survived the defendant’s attacks spoke of the physical and psychological torture inflicted by A. during the trial.
“Not only did he tear my body apart, but he trampled on my soul. He was the worst nightmare of my life,” one witness said, recounting that he entered detention as a child and emerged as a traumatized adult.
Prosecutors say Rafik A. was the head of the interrogation unit of the National Defense Forces (NDF) in Salamiyah, Syria, in 2013 and 2014. The NDF was a militia that fought on the side of the government of Assad, who was ousted in December 2024.
Rafik A. was arrested in 2023 in the Netherlands, where he had lived for several years as an asylum seeker.
Under the concept of universal jurisdiction, Dutch law broadly allows cases to be brought against foreign nationals for crimes committed abroad if the perpetrators or some of the victims are present in the Netherlands.
Rafik A.’s lawyers and lawyers for his alleged victims will give their closing arguments on Thursday. The verdict is expected on June 9.
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French Soldier Dies of Wounds After Attack on UN Force in Lebanon, Macron Blames Hezbollah
French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference in Paris, France, June 12, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Stephane Mahe
President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday that a second French soldier had died following an attack on United Nations peacekeepers in Lebanon last week, which he said was carried out by Iran‑backed Hezbollah.
The soldier, Chief Corporal Anicet Girardin, was severely wounded on April 18 and died of his wounds after being evacuated to France on Tuesday, Macron said in a post on social media platform X.
One of his colleagues was killed immediately while clearing a road in southern Lebanon in the same attack on the UN peacekeeping mission.
Macron blamed Hezbollah terrorists for the attack.
UNIFIL said initial assessments indicated the fire came from non‑state actors, allegedly Hezbollah, and that an investigation had been launched into what it called “a deliberate attack.”
Hezbollah has denied any involvement, expressing its “surprise at positions that rushed to make baseless accusations” against the Islamist group.
During a visit to Paris on Tuesday, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he was personally following the investigation into the incident.
“I have instructed the police force to carry out all necessary inquiries in order to identify those responsible and bring them to justice,” he said.
France, which has deep historical ties to Lebanon, has about 700 troops as part of the UNIFIL mission.
Three French soldiers have now died in the region since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February. One was killed earlier in northern Iraq after a drone attack on a French‑Kurdish base.
Since 1978, more than 160 French soldiers have been killed in Lebanon.