If the Gaza war is winding down, there will be two clear lessons to be remembered. First, United States pressure and leverage are vitally useful; second, the Israelis and Palestinians cannot be left to their own devices without risking catastrophe, so U.S. engagement will be vital going forward.

The deal announced by President Donald Trump Wednesday night is a first-phase agreement in which Hamas consents to release the 47 remaining Oct. 7 hostages — of which 20 are believed alive — and to continue talking about the remainder of Trump’s proposed peace plan. Few expected Hamas to agree to that release, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, without a full deal to end the war. The assumption, supported by leaks, is that the group has received U.S. guarantees that fighting will indeed not resume.

The expectation, instead, is that in one form or another Hamas will agree to lay down its arms, at least in the Gaza Strip, handing power to a complex governing edifice that will include local Palestinian technocrats, the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority, a multinational Arab force and an international oversight committee chaired by the U.S. If that occurs, it will only have happened because Hamas was under extraordinary pressure from external patrons.

Why did all this happen now? The timing reflects a convergence of domestic, regional and global incentives.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political calculus has shifted. His governing coalition faces looming crises, including budget conflicts and Haredi demands for formal military exemptions. The exhausted public — and a growing minority of the military — has been demanding a resolution to the war, prioritizing the return of hostages, with increasing fury.

Where prolonging the fighting once served Netanyahu by forestalling an inquiry into his failures leading up to the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, the approach of elections in 2026 now incentivizes a quick end: It’s difficult to envision any route toward electoral success while advancing a broadly unpopular war. Moreover, Netanyahu cannot refuse Trump, who is lionized in Israel.

Now, he’ll attempt to flip the narrative away from the war’s cost to focus on its successes: The ultimate return of the hostages — aside from the dozens killed during the war — the weakening of Iran and its militias, and, hopefully, the freeing of Gaza from Hamas.

Across the Arab world, the pressure was building too. Outrage over Gaza’s devastation made passivity by other Middle Eastern nations politically dangerous.

Egypt faced massive economic damage from the Yemeni Houthis’ Gaza-related disruptions of Red Sea shipping, which emptied Suez Canal revenues. And Israel’s thrashing of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, the subsequent fall of the Hezbollah-backed dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and the weakening of Iran in the June war with Israel, all emboldened Arab leaders to turn against the militias — like Hamas — that Iran funded around the region.

In July, a historic turning point occurred when key Arab governments, including Qatar, publicly called on Hamas to disarm — a Rubicon in regional politics.

Potentially decisive was the recent addition of Turkey to the array of Muslim countries pressuring Hamas. Turkey had sometimes helped to prop up Hamas, allowing funding channels to the group and occasionally hosting its exiled leaders. But with his economy reeling, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking defense markets and access to American F-35s, and in Trump he has a U.S. leader indifferent to his authoritarian ways. Signing onto Trump’s effort gave Erdogan an opportunity to work toward those goals, and help shove aside a huge distraction.

Washington used this landscape to orchestrate overwhelming regional pressure on Hamas, with carrots and sticks incentivizing every relevant actor. The most clear-cut case was Qatar receiving, last week, a NATO-style security agreement from the U.S., clearly a down payment to get it to bring Hamas to heel. With the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner again involved in the talks, it should surprise no one to see conversations about Israeli-Saudi normalization, and similar U.S. security guarantees to Riyadh, soon reentering the discourse.

Trump’s political and personal motivations are, as always, a factor, with public opinion in the U.S. turning against Israel. Just as the war created politically damaging splits in the Democratic Party headed into the 2024 election, it is now creating fissures in Trump’s MAGA movement, with the isolationist branch abandoning Israel and bashing Trump over his alliance with Netanyahu. Resolving the Gaza crisis allows him to demonstrate effectiveness on the international stage, burnish credibility, and even, who knows, be in the running for a Nobel Peace Prize.

In Europe, the war was also becoming a massive political problem, riling up large Muslim minorities in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Holland, Sweden and elsewhere. Center-left governments like those of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have watched the backlash strengthen the anti-migrant populist right. Facing these shifts, Europe can be expected to do what it must, diplomatically and financially, to pacify the Middle East.

And there will be much to be done, especially financially. Rebuilding Gaza will require tens of billions of dollars. Mainly, however, Israelis and Palestinians will need close supervision. With all due respect to local agency and principles of sovereignty, the two sides’ failure in managing their century-old conflict is too monumental, and too globally disruptive, to be ignored.

The Palestinians have produced weak, corrupt governance in the Palestinian Authority on one hand, and on the other a truly diabolical array of jihadist groups headlined by Hamas. And Israel has saddled itself with a right-wing government that seems to not understand the imperative of separating the Zionist enterprise from the masses of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

What should happen going forward is politically difficult but clear. Israel must be prevented by the U.S. from expanding its settlements in the West Bank, which undermine any credible path toward Palestinian statehood. Palestinians must be pressured to reform their governance: ending payments to the families of terrorists, banning all militias, reforming their education system to preach peace, and accepting realistic parameters for eventual statehood.

In the wider region, Arab states must not tolerate militias. Hezbollah must be disarmed in Lebanon. Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq must be neutralized or integrated under state authority. The Houthis must be decisively defeated to restore security to the Red Sea.

To follow through on all of this, U.S. involvement remains critical. U.S. pressure cannot always work — for example, it lacks the leverage on Moscow to end the Ukraine war — but in the Middle East, the stars are aligning. Conditional financial support, diplomatic backing, and military guarantees must accompany every step.

The final step, which would be truly worthy of a Nobel Prize, should be the two-state solution ending a century of conflict in the Holy Land.

The post Should Trump get a Nobel Peace Prize for Gaza? appeared first on The Forward.

(JTA) — When the news broke in Tel Aviv that Israel and Hamas had, at long last, reached a deal that would return their sons, Einav Zangauker and Michael Ilouz embraced. Then Ilouz picked Zangauker up and danced, his unbridled joy commanding his body.

It was one of dozens of displays of jubilation captured on video of families who have rarely, if ever, had reason to smile in the public eye.

The families were all thrust into grim fraternity on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas attacked Israel and abducted 250 people. At first, there were thousands of family members lobbying for the hostages’ release, but over the course of two ceasefires and as more information emerged about the conditions of the hostages, only 20 families still faced

Many of them have become well known within Israel and beyond for their indefatigable efforts to bring their sons, husbands and fathers home. Now, their glee is going viral.

Talia Berman, mother of hostages Gali and Ziv, was seen in a video posted to Instagram breaking down in tears and dancing in the arms of Emily Damari, their best friend who was released in a temporary ceasefire in January.

“Hugging Mama Talia and seeing her smile is the best thing that has happened to me since I returned,” wrote Damari in a post on Instagram.

Several hostage families and former hostages on a lobbying trip in Washington, D.C., were captured embracing and grinning ear-to-ear while learning the news of the ceasefire. They shouted a chorus of “thank you” to Trump on the phone as they met with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, in a video posted by the Hostage Families Forum.

Within the group were the freed American-Israeli hostage Keith Siegel and Arbel Yehud and Iair Horn, former hostages who were released earlier this year without their loved ones — Yehud’s partner Ariel Cunio and Horn’s brother Eitan.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DPlt7CsjUUi/?img_index=3

And Alana Zeitchik, an American relative of the hostage David Cunio, Ariel’s brother posted a triumphant WhatsApp from her cousin Sharon Alony, David’s wife. Alony and her twin daughters were released from Hamas captivity in November 2023.

“It’s official – DAVID IS COMING HOME,” Alony wrote. Zeitchik responded with more than 30 emojis signifying crying.

Other former hostages also expressed their relief at the release of those still in captivity.

“I can’t believe it. Elkana, Yosef, Segev, Bar, Maksym, you’re coming home to your families,” said former hostage Ohad Ben Ami in a video posted on Instagram. “I can’t believe it. I can’t believe I’m going to see you, hug you…wow, I’m so excited.”

Former hostage Omar Wenkert wrote on Instagram: “Finally you’re coming back to life, can’t wait to hold you. My heart’s wish is coming true! Guy, Evyatar and all the kidnapped. Is this how it feels when dreams come true?”

The post How hostage families responded to learning that a ceasefire deal would return their loved ones appeared first on The Forward.

If Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire deal delivers, American Jews and supporters of Israel will get what they have yearned for since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks — the return of the hostages, an end to Palestinian suffering, and a credible plan to remove Hamas as a military and governing force in Gaza.

What complicates the possible resolution is that the plan’s authors, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are deeply unpopular figures among liberal Jews.

As news of the deal spread, Orthodox and politically conservative Jews, already among Trump’s strongest supporters, said they were vindicated. The Republican Jewish Coalition said that Trump not only merited the Nobel Peace Prize he has long sought, the award should be renamed for him. Netanyahu also called for Trump to win the Nobel.

Rabbi Ari Berman of Yeshiva University, who delivered the benediction at Trump’s inauguration in January, thanked God for “raising up” Trump to bring the hostages home.

Jewish groups affiliated with the Democratic Party avoided effusive praise for Trump, describing the deal as a “momentous” first step in a broader goal of creating the conditions for an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and lasting peace.

When liberals mentioned Trump, it was begrudgingly. “Trump gets what he wants because he is a bully. Period,” Elana Sztokman, an Israeli American on the left, wrote. “And apparently, bullying was what was necessary to get this ceasefire done.”

The response reflected a Jewish community supportive of Israel’s security, exhausted by the ongoing war and deeply skeptical of its current leadership. A recent Washington Post survey of 815 Jewish Americans found that only 46% approved of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and 68% rated Netanyahu’s leadership of Israel as poor or fair. It mirrored polling after the joint Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites earlier this year: cautious approval of the outcome and concern about escalation.

Recent polls show Democratic voters generally are increasingly sympathetic to Palestinians. Zohran Mamdani’s primary win in the race for New York City mayor is prompting mainstream Democrats with national ambitions to mimic his sharp criticism of Israel.

The 20-point plan — relief first, reconstruction and governance later, backed by Arab regional partners — gives both leaders a much-needed win. Trump can claim he succeeded where former President Joe Biden could not, securing his legacy and fulfilling a key campaign promise to both Arab American voters and his MAGA base to end the conflict. Netanyahu, meanwhile, deeply unpopular among Israelis who blame him for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 massacres, enters an election year with a diplomatic win, his right-wing coalition intact for now, and tangible results to show for what he called a seven-front war of redemption.

In Israel, there was unfettered jubilation. Across the political map, from Netanyahu loyalists to his harshest critics, Trump was hailed as the leader Israelis had longed for. A farmer who has used his land to send political messages in the past plowed the words “Nobel 4 Trump” into his fields. A town in Israel’s north said it was renaming its soccer stadium for Trump.

In his first interview after the deal was announced on Wednesday, Trump said that he told Netanyahu his post-war plan would enhance Israel’s standing in America and globally.

Why Trump succeeded where Biden failed

The Trump plan closely resembles the three-phase plan Biden outlined in April 2024, which called for postwar rebuilding, the removal of Hamas and a long-term regional strategy. The ceasefire-hostage deal signed in January, with the backing of both Biden and Trump, collapsed after just 42 days.

Gershon Baskin, a veteran Israeli hostage negotiator and an early conduit between U.S. envoys and Hamas, argued that Biden’s insistence on partial ceasefires rather than a full end to the war weakened America’s hand. Biden, Baskin said, was weakened by his concessions to Netanyahu, who feared that a long-term ceasefire would collapse his far-right coalition.

“To me, it was clear that President Biden projected American weakness while President Trump projects American power,” Baskin wrote in a Substack post. “From that moment, on December 26, 2024 it was clear to me that the only way that the war would come to an end is when President Trump makes the decision that it has to end.”

Trump also entered negotiations with advantages Biden never had.

First, there were no “daylight” theatrics. Biden’s public clashes with Netanyahu — over the judicial overhaul and Israel’s operation in Rafah — created visible friction. When Biden called for protections for Palestinian civilians and increased humanitarian aid, Netanyahu openly defied him. Trump, by contrast, backed Israel’s war goals, praised Netanyahu’s leadership and kept most disagreements behind closed doors.

Second, Trump focused on outcomes, not empathy. In her memoir 107 Days, former Vice President Kamala Harris wrote that Biden often appeared “inadequate and forced” when addressing Palestinian suffering, constrained by his strong emotional attachment to Israel.

Trump didn’t dwell on empathy. He was blunt. He called the war a “public relations disaster” and said his goal was simple: stop wars and bring peace. For an anxious Israeli public, that direct language resonated.

Finally, Trump’s transactional style and focus on results made his approach more effective. Netanyahu, who has over the last decade all but abandoned any pretense at cultivating Democrats, placed all his eggs in the Republican basket: He could not defy Trump.

Trump’s envoys — Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff — enjoy deep ties with governmental and business elites in Qatar and Turkey, two governments that are close to Hamas. Democrats had strained those relationships over human-rights disputes. The countries returned to the negotiations now as regional powerbrokers.

Another spur for Qatar: Trump enhanced the already expansive U.S. security relationship with the Gulf monarchy and pressured Netanyahu to apologize for an Israeli strike on the country’s capital targeting Hamas leadership.

That left Netanyahu no choice but to oblige. Trump, who plans to visit Israel and address the Knesset, will likely reward the embattled Israeli leader with the political backing needed to push the deal through and to jump-start a reelection bid.

JTA contributed to this report.

The post Why Trump was able to succeed with a Gaza peace plan where Biden failed appeared first on The Forward.