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How the ‘Experts’ Lost Credibility: 10 Predictions About Israel’s War That Fell Apart

Relatives and friends of Israeli hostage Alon Ohel, held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, react as they watch broadcasts related to his release as part of a hostages-prisoners swap and a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, in Lavon, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Rami Shlush

Israel’s founding prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, once quipped: “If an expert says it can’t be done, get another expert.”

While there are established facts no matter who says them, that wisdom has certainly been vindicated in the war that began with Hamas’ October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel.

Over the past two years, politicians, academics, journalists, and analysts – people routinely presented as “experts” – have issued dire predictions and sweeping moral judgments about Israel and its enemies. Again and again, they were wrong.

Here are ten examples.

1. The General Who Underestimated the IDF

Soon after October 7, a US three-star Marine lieutenant general assigned to advise Israel warned against a ground invasion, predicting Israel would lose 20 soldiers a day. His projection – over 14,000 fatalities – proved vastly exaggerated. The 918 IDF soldiers killed remain a national tragedy, but the prediction of catastrophic losses was, like many others, baseless.

2. The Hezbollah “Victory” That Never Came

On October 4, 2024, Samer Jaber, a PhD researcher at Royal Holloway University, wrote on Al Jazeera: “Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, but it can still win over Israel.” A year later, Hezbollah has been dismantled as a fighting force, and even Lebanon’s own government now regards it as an enemy.

3. The “World War III” Predictions

When Israel – and later the US – struck Iran in June 2025, media outlets including The Independent and The New York Times warned of “catastrophic consequences” and “the start of World War III.” The Iranian ambassador to France declared such a scenario inevitable. Yet instead of triggering global war, the strikes crippled Iran’s terror network and, in the absence of one of its primary sponsors, forced Hamas to accept a ceasefire.

4. The UN’s “14,000 Babies” Claim

In May 2025, Tom Fletcher, the UN’s humanitarian chief, told BBC Radio 4 that “14,000 babies will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” His words were repeated uncritically by The New York Times, NBC, ABC, TIME, and The Guardian. The prediction never materialized — and was proved to be a manipulation of other statistics — but the damage to Israel’s image did.

5. The Manufactured “Famine”

UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini repeatedly warned of an “imminent famine” in Gaza. Yet under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, famine can only be declared if three specific thresholds are crossed: 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, 30 percent of children suffer acute malnutrition, and two or more people per 10,000 die of hunger each day. None of those conditions was met. For Gaza’s population, that would mean over 400 starvation deaths daily – a figure not claimed even by Hamas.

6. The “Genocide Scholars”

Omer Bartov, a professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Brown University, declared in The New York Times: “I’m a genocide scholar. I know it when I see it.” He first accused Israel of genocide in December 2024 — months before the war’s end.

Yet Gaza’s population rose throughout the conflict as Israel consistently evacuated civilians from combat zones. Genocide requires intent to destroy; Israel’s intent was to protect. As HonestReporting board member Salo Aizenberg dryly noted, to become a member of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, “all you need is a credit card.”

7. The Misread ICJ Ruling

In May 2024, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt any actions in Rafah that could bring about the destruction of the Palestinian people in whole or in part. But major outlets — BBC, CNN, NBC, Newsweek — misreported it as a blanket ban on Israel’s Rafah operation. The IDF proceeded, eliminated Hamas’ last stronghold, and the supposed “violation” never materialized.

8. The “Restrained” Hamas

On the eve of the October 7 attack, Israel’s own National Security Adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, confidently described Hamas as “restrained.” Speaking privately on the afternoon of October 6, he noted that Hamas had stayed out of Israel’s recent clashes with Islamic Jihad and was focused on sending more Gazan workers into Israel. Sixteen hours later, Hamas invaded.

Hanegbi — fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu this week — had also told Maariv in September 2023, “I don’t see our enemies raring to fight, not in Lebanon, not in Gaza, and not in Syria.”

9. Did Hamas Choose Stability Over Jihad?

Historian and former deputy minister Michael Oren wrote after Operation Shield and Arrow in May 2023 that Hamas had “chosen social and financial stability over jihad.” In reality, Hamas’s “restraint” was strategic deception — a prelude to October 7. The calm wasn’t peace; it was preparation.

10. The Prophet of Doom

In May 2025, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman predicted Israel was “preparing to re-invade Gaza” and “advance annexation” in the West Bank. His headline read, “This Israeli Government Is Not Our Ally.” Six months later, President Trump declared the war over. There was no annexation, no mass expulsion — just another failed prophecy from the paper that rarely learns.

The Pattern: Expertise Without Accountability

From generals to journalists, UN officials to academics, the pattern is the same: overconfidence, distortion, and a lack of accountability when “expert” narratives collapse.

Ben-Gurion’s advice still stands: when an expert insists something can’t be done — or invents horrors that never were — it’s time to find another expert.

The author is the Executive Director of HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.

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Campus Antisemitism Surges at Start of New Academic Year, New Report Finds

Illustrative: Pro-Hamas activists at Dartmouth College. Photo: New Deal Coalition/Instagram.

Incidents of campus antisemitism continue to rise around the world, as revealed in a new monthly report published by the Combat Antisemitism Movement (CAM) civil rights organization.

Published by the group’s Antisemitism Research Center (ARC), the report said CAM recorded 53 antisemitic incidents on college campuses in the month of September, a 178 percent increase over the previous month, when 19 were recorded despite students being present on campus during the summer holiday.

“This surge reflects the resumption of the academic year and the persistent problem of antisemitism at colleges and university,” the report said. “In France, students at Sorbonne University in Paris discussed a targeted shooting attack against Jewish students at the school. In Argentina, students at the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba seized control of parts of the campus, protesting Israel’s ‘genocide’ of the Palestinians.”

The report added that the US saw 38 campus antisemitism incidents in September, several of which The Algemeiner reported.

In upstate New York, for example, law enforcement agencies filed hate crime charges against two Syracuse University students who they say forcefully gained entry into a Jewish fraternity’s off-campus house during Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, and heaved a bag of pork at a wall, causing its contents to splatter across the floor.

Allen Groves, the university’s chief officer of student experience, said in a statement issued on behalf of the school that law enforcement captured the suspects just moments after they attempted to abscond to an unknown location in a getaway car. He added that they will face disciplinary charges brought by the school in addition to pending criminal penalties.

In Hanover, New Hampshire, an unknown person or group graffitied a swastika, the symbol of the Nazi Party, outside the dormitory of a Jewish student at Dartmouth College.

The graffitiing of a swastika as a method of intimidation and expression of hate on the campus shocked Dartmouth;s Jewish community and stood out for being perpetrated only days before Jews across the US and the world observed Rosh Hashanah.

“With Jewish high holidays around the corner, our community feels the impact of this crime even more profoundly,” Ruby Benjamin, a Jewish Dartmouth student and president of the campus Chabad, told The Dartmouth, the college’s official student newspaper. “In a time that should be marked with joy, we are forced to look hatred in the eye. While we are disgusted by yesterday’s events, we are not afraid. Today, as always, we stand together as a strong community.”

In Manhattan, New York, an unknown person graffitied antisemitic messages inside the Weinstein residence hall at New York University, prompting school president Linda Mills to issue a statement condemning antisemitism and imploring students to uphold the institution’s values.

The outrages continued into the month of October. Just last week, Cornell University took center stage in another campus antisemitism outrage when its student newspaper published an anti-Zionist opinion piece which promoted Holocaust inversion by melding a Nazi symbol with the Star of David.

Written by Karim-Aly Assam, the article implied an equivalence of Israel’s military objective to eradicate Hamas from Gaza with the Nazi genocide of Jews across Europe during World War II, a trope which anti-Israel activists and antisemites traffic to foster negative public opinion against Israel’s efforts to secure its borders and quell jihadist activity in the Palestinian territories.

The tactic — Holocaust inversion — is one part of a triad of Holocaust-skepticism, the other two components of which are “denial” and “distortion” — used to defame Jews and deny that they are and have been victims of hatred. Once reserved to neo-Nazi media, Holocaust inversion, experts say, is being increasingly embraced by other more mainstream segments of society.

A new survey conducted by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and the Academic Engagement Network (AEN) found that staff and faculty are accelerating the antisemitism crisis on US college campuses by politicizing the classroom, promoting anti-Israel bias, and even discriminating against Jewish colleagues.

The survey of “Jewish-identifying US-based faculty members” found that 73 percent of Jewish faculty witnessed their colleagues engaging in antisemitic activity, and a significant percentage named the Faculty and Staff for Justice in Palestine (FSJP) group as the force driving it. Of those aware of an FSJP chapter on their campus, the vast majority of respondents reported that the chapter engaged in anti-Israel programming (77.2 percent), organized anti-Israel protests and demonstrations (79.4 percent), and endorsed anti-Israel divestment campaigns (84.8 percent).

Additionally, 50 percent of respondents said that anti-Zionist faculty have established de facto, or “shadow,” boycotts of Israel on campus even in the absence of formal declaration or recognition of one by the administration.

“What we’re seeing is a betrayal of the fundamental principles of academic freedom and collegiality,” ADL chief executive officer Jonathan Greenblatt said in a statement when the report was released. “Jewish faculty are being forced to hide their identities, excluded from professional opportunities, and told by their own colleagues what constitutes antisemitism — even as they experience it firsthand. This hostile environment is driving talented educators and researchers away from careers they’ve dedicated their lives to building.”

Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.

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Bob Vylan Frontman Responds to British Airways Pulling Sponsorship of Louis Theroux’s Podcast Over Interview

Louis Theroux in conversation with Bobby Vylan on the Oct. 24, 2025, episode of “The Louis Theroux Podcast.” Photo: YouTube screenshot

The frontman of the British punk rap duo Bob Vylan responded on Sunday to the decision by British Airways to withdraw sponsorship from Louis Theroux’s podcast following his interview with the musician, who said he did not regret his “death to the IDF [Israel Defense Forces]” chant at the Glastonbury Festival and would do it again.

A spokesperson for British Airways told PA Media that content in the interview “clearly breaches our sponsorship policy in relation to politically sensitive or controversial subject matters.”

“We and our third-party media agency have processes in place to ensure these issues don’t occur and we’re investigating how this happened,” added the spokesperson. “Our sponsorship of the series has now been paused, and the advert has been removed.”

Bob Vylan frontman Bobby Vylan, whose real name is Pascal Robinson-Foster, called the move a “scare tactic” in a post on X. “I went on the podcast and as hard as the lobby groups and media tried, they couldn’t twist anything I said. So, they have resorted to lobbying for Louis’ sponsorship to be pulled in an attempt to scare others out of giving me a platform.”

“Their hope to further vilify me couldn’t run, so they target Louis to make an example for sitting with me,” he wrote in separate posts. “The lobby groups, the British government, and media are determined to make an example of me, all because I dare to want an end to a genocidal occupying force guilty of war crimes.”

Robinson-Foster was a guest on Theroux’s podcast last week and talked in great length about the “death, death to the IDF” chant that he led at Glastonbury in June in Somerset, England. The musician told the podcast host and documentarian that he is “not regretful of it at all” and “would do it again tomorrow, [and] twice on Sundays.” He also called “death to the IDF” a “perfect chant.”

“The subsequent backlash that I’ve faced — it’s minimal,” he added. “It’s minimal compared to what people in Palestine are going through. If that can be my contribution and if I can have my Palestinian friends and people that I meet from Palestine, that have had to flee, that have lost members in double digits of their family and they can say, ‘Yo, your chant, I love it.’ Or ‘it gave me a breath of fresh air or whatever’ – and I don’t want to overstate the importance of the chant. That’s not what I’m trying to do – but if I have their support, they’re the people that I’m doing it for. They’re the people that I’m being vocal for.”

Robinson-Foster also claimed that Bob Vylan’s Glastonbury set was praised and called “fantastic” by employees of the BBC, which live streamed the Glastonbury Festival. The BBC apologized for live streaming Bob Vylan’s “offensive and deplorable behavior” and BBC chairman Samir Shah separately apologized for the network’s mistake in broadcasting the band’s “unconscionable antisemitic views.” The anti-IDF chant was even condemned by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

After the Glastonbury incident, the United Talent Agency dropped Bob Vylan as its client, and the band had several concerts and festival performances canceled. Bob Vylan had their US visas revoked and are currently under criminal investigation in the UK because of the chant. There was a recorded rise in antisemitic incidents in the United Kingdom the day after Bob Vylan’s anti-IDF chant at Glastonbury, but Robinson-Foster told Theroux last week he does not believe he contributed to creating “an unsafe atmosphere for the Jewish community” in the UK following the festival.

The vocalist insisted in a social media post last month “there is nothing antisemitic or criminal about anything I said at Glastonbury.” Bob Vylan previously said in a statement on Instagram that the “death to the IDF” chant was a call “for the dismantling of a violent military machine.”

Robinson-Foster called for violence against Zionists during a September concert in Amsterdam, and while performing in Spain over the summer, he encouraged “armed resistance” against the IDF and proclaimed, “Down with Israel.”

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Embattled Irish Jewish Leaders Congratulate Country’s New President Despite Anti-Israel Record, Seek Fresh Start

President-elect Catherine Connolly is applauded by Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheal Martin and Irish Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister) Simon Harris at Dublin Castle, on the day of the announcement of the results of the Irish presidential election in Dublin, Ireland, Oct. 25, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

Ireland’s Jewish community has welcomed the election of the country’s new president, expressing hope that her leadership will foster unity despite her record of anti-Israel remarks and previous comments defending Hamas.

On Friday, Catherine Connolly won a historic landslide victory, securing 63 percent of the vote — the largest margin in Ireland’s history — defeating center-right candidate Heather Humphreys.

As a left-wing lawmaker who has served in Ireland’s parliament since 2016, Connolly’s election marks the rise of a prominent anti-Israel voice at a time when the country has emerged as one of Israel’s fiercest critics amid the war in Gaza, a stance that has only intensified in recent months.

“My message is use your voice in every way you can, because a republic and a democracy needs constructive questioning, and together we can shape a new republic that values everybody,” Connolly said in a post on X following her victory.

In Ireland, the president serves largely as a symbolic figure, representing the country in diplomatic matters and fulfilling key constitutional duties but without the power to enact laws or policies.

In the past, Connolly has drawn repeated criticism from the country’s leaders and the local Jewish community for her anti-Israel rhetoric, which has been accused of going too far into the realm of antisemitism. The Irish president-elect has even defended the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.

At first, Connolly said she was “reluctant to unequivocally condemn Oct. 7.”

She later clarified that Hamas’s atrocities — which included murdering 1,200 people, kidnapping 251 hostages, and perpetrating widespread rape and other sexual violence — were “absolutely wrong,” while also asserting that the attacks did not constitute genocide and that the history of the conflict “did not start on Oct. 7.”

Many anti-Israel activists have similarly framed Hamas’s Oct. 7 invasion as a justified response to Israeli policy toward Gaza and the Palestinians more broadly in an apparent attempt to defend the massacre.

Connolly has also sharply criticized Israel, labeling it a “terrorist state,” claiming it is not “democratic,” and accusing it of seeking to “accomplish Jewish supremacy.”

Despite her well-known record of hostilities toward the Jewish state, the Jewish Representative Council of Ireland (JRCI) — the main representative body of Irish Jews — congratulated Connolly on her presidential victory.

“The Jewish community in Ireland looks forward to working constructively with the president, as we have with her predecessors, in fostering mutual respect, understanding, and the flourishing of all communities that make up the fabric of Irish life,” Maurice Cohen, president of JRCI, said in a post on X.

“We are sincerely hopeful that President-Elect Connolly will engage positively with Ireland’s small but very proud Irish Jewish community,” she continued.

Ireland’s Chief Rabbi Yoni Wieder also congratulated Connolly, expressing hope that she would use the office to “unite rather than divide,” while acknowledging lingering concerns about her past rhetoric and views.

“She has described [Hamas] as ‘part of the fabric of the Palestinian people,’ yet seems entirely untroubled by that reality. She appears not to object to its remaining in power, even as it openly beats and executes its own people,” Wieder told the Jewish Chronicle.

“Such views do not reflect the outlook of someone committed to a secure and peaceful future,” he continued.

“I would hope that President Connolly will take the opportunity in due course to engage directly with Ireland’s Jewish community, hear our concerns, and understand better how the conflict continues to affect our small community here,” he said.

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