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How the ‘Experts’ Lost Credibility: 10 Predictions About Israel’s War That Fell Apart
Relatives and friends of Israeli hostage Alon Ohel, held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, react as they watch broadcasts related to his release as part of a hostages-prisoners swap and a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, in Lavon, Israel, Oct. 13, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Rami Shlush
Israel’s founding prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, once quipped: “If an expert says it can’t be done, get another expert.”
While there are established facts no matter who says them, that wisdom has certainly been vindicated in the war that began with Hamas’ October 7, 2023, invasion of Israel.
Over the past two years, politicians, academics, journalists, and analysts – people routinely presented as “experts” – have issued dire predictions and sweeping moral judgments about Israel and its enemies. Again and again, they were wrong.
Here are ten examples.
1. The General Who Underestimated the IDF
Soon after October 7, a US three-star Marine lieutenant general assigned to advise Israel warned against a ground invasion, predicting Israel would lose 20 soldiers a day. His projection – over 14,000 fatalities – proved vastly exaggerated. The 918 IDF soldiers killed remain a national tragedy, but the prediction of catastrophic losses was, like many others, baseless.
2. The Hezbollah “Victory” That Never Came
On October 4, 2024, Samer Jaber, a PhD researcher at Royal Holloway University, wrote on Al Jazeera: “Hezbollah has been dealt a heavy blow, but it can still win over Israel.” A year later, Hezbollah has been dismantled as a fighting force, and even Lebanon’s own government now regards it as an enemy.
3. The “World War III” Predictions
When Israel – and later the US – struck Iran in June 2025, media outlets including The Independent and The New York Times warned of “catastrophic consequences” and “the start of World War III.” The Iranian ambassador to France declared such a scenario inevitable. Yet instead of triggering global war, the strikes crippled Iran’s terror network and, in the absence of one of its primary sponsors, forced Hamas to accept a ceasefire.
4. The UN’s “14,000 Babies” Claim
In May 2025, Tom Fletcher, the UN’s humanitarian chief, told BBC Radio 4 that “14,000 babies will die in the next 48 hours unless we can reach them.” His words were repeated uncritically by The New York Times, NBC, ABC, TIME, and The Guardian. The prediction never materialized — and was proved to be a manipulation of other statistics — but the damage to Israel’s image did.
5. The Manufactured “Famine”
UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini repeatedly warned of an “imminent famine” in Gaza. Yet under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, famine can only be declared if three specific thresholds are crossed: 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, 30 percent of children suffer acute malnutrition, and two or more people per 10,000 die of hunger each day. None of those conditions was met. For Gaza’s population, that would mean over 400 starvation deaths daily – a figure not claimed even by Hamas.
6. The “Genocide Scholars”
Omer Bartov, a professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Brown University, declared in The New York Times: “I’m a genocide scholar. I know it when I see it.” He first accused Israel of genocide in December 2024 — months before the war’s end.
Yet Gaza’s population rose throughout the conflict as Israel consistently evacuated civilians from combat zones. Genocide requires intent to destroy; Israel’s intent was to protect. As HonestReporting board member Salo Aizenberg dryly noted, to become a member of the International Association of Genocide Scholars, “all you need is a credit card.”
7. The Misread ICJ Ruling
In May 2024, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt any actions in Rafah that could bring about the destruction of the Palestinian people in whole or in part. But major outlets — BBC, CNN, NBC, Newsweek — misreported it as a blanket ban on Israel’s Rafah operation. The IDF proceeded, eliminated Hamas’ last stronghold, and the supposed “violation” never materialized.
8. The “Restrained” Hamas
On the eve of the October 7 attack, Israel’s own National Security Adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, confidently described Hamas as “restrained.” Speaking privately on the afternoon of October 6, he noted that Hamas had stayed out of Israel’s recent clashes with Islamic Jihad and was focused on sending more Gazan workers into Israel. Sixteen hours later, Hamas invaded.
Hanegbi — fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu this week — had also told Maariv in September 2023, “I don’t see our enemies raring to fight, not in Lebanon, not in Gaza, and not in Syria.”
9. Did Hamas Choose Stability Over Jihad?
Historian and former deputy minister Michael Oren wrote after Operation Shield and Arrow in May 2023 that Hamas had “chosen social and financial stability over jihad.” In reality, Hamas’s “restraint” was strategic deception — a prelude to October 7. The calm wasn’t peace; it was preparation.
10. The Prophet of Doom
In May 2025, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman predicted Israel was “preparing to re-invade Gaza” and “advance annexation” in the West Bank. His headline read, “This Israeli Government Is Not Our Ally.” Six months later, President Trump declared the war over. There was no annexation, no mass expulsion — just another failed prophecy from the paper that rarely learns.
The Pattern: Expertise Without Accountability
From generals to journalists, UN officials to academics, the pattern is the same: overconfidence, distortion, and a lack of accountability when “expert” narratives collapse.
Ben-Gurion’s advice still stands: when an expert insists something can’t be done — or invents horrors that never were — it’s time to find another expert.
The author is the Executive Director of HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.
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A course on the Yiddish proverbs collected through the An-Ski expeditions
אינעם קומעדיקן ווינטער־זמן פֿון די ייִדיש־קלאַסן בײַם „אַרבעטער רינג“ וועט מען הײַיאָר פֿירן דורך „זום“ אַן אייגנאַרטיקן מיני־קורס אויף ייִדיש: וועגן די אידיאָמען און שפּריכווערטער, וואָס דער סאָוועטישער פֿאָלקלאָריסט אַבא לעוו האָט געזאַמלט בעת זײַנע עקספּעדיציעס מיט ש. אַנ־סקין איבער מערבֿ־אוקראַיִנע פֿון 1912 ביז 1914.
דעם קורס וועט לערנען דער ייִדישער שרײַבער און רעדאַקטאָר פֿונעם אָנלײַן־זשורנאַל „ייִדיש בראַנזשע“ — באָריס סאַנדלער, און וועט זײַן געבויט אויפֿן יסוד פֿון יענע וועלטסווערטלעך און סאַנדלערס קאָמענטאַרן וועגן זיי.
דער קלאַס וועט זיך טרעפֿן יעדן דינסטיק פֿון 2:30 ביז 4:00, ניו־יאָרקער צײַט, אָנהייבנדיק פֿונעם 24סטן פֿעברואַר.
דאָס וועט זײַן צום ערשטן מאָל וואָס דער ברייטער עולם וועט האָבן צוטריט צו אַבא לעווס מאַטעריאַלן. דורך בליצפּאָסט האָט סאַנדלער דערציילט ווי אַזוי ער האָט באַקומען די זאַמלונג: נאָך דעם ווי אבא לעוו איז געשטאָרבן אין 1959 האָבן די העפֿטן מיט די ייִדישע אידיאָמען און ווערטלעך זיך געפֿונען אין דער רעדאַקציע פֿון „סאָוועטיש היימלאַנד“, און שפּעטער — אינעם אַרכיוו פֿונעם ייִדישן פּאָעט און פֿאָרשער חיים ביידער. נאָך ביידערס טויט אין 2003 האָט זײַן אַלמנה, יעווע ביידער, איבערגעגעבן די העפֿטן סאַנדלערן אין אַ קאָנווערט, וווּ ס׳איז מיט ביידערס האַנט געווען אָנגעשריבן „פֿאַר באָריס סאַנדלערן“.
ווי אַ צאָל אַנדערע זאַמלער אין אייראָפּע און אַמעריקע, איז אַנ־סקיס און אַבא לעווס אינטערעס צום ייִדישן פֿאָלקלאָר געווען פֿאַרבונדן מיט זייער איבערגעגעבנקייט צום „פֿאָלקיזם‟: זיי האָבן באַטראַכט די ייִדיש־רעדנדיקע פֿאָלקסמענטשן אין די שטעטלעך און דערפֿער ווי אַ שליסל צו שאַפֿן אַ נײַע וועלטלעכע אידענטיטעט, צוגעמאָסטן צו די שטאָטישע רוסישע ייִדן, אַזוי ווי זיי זענען אַליין געווען.
כּדי זיך צו פֿאַרשרײַבן אויפֿן קורס גיט אַ קוועטש דאָ.
דער אַרבעטער רינג וועט אויך פֿירן לענגערע קורסן אויף ייִדיש אינעם ווינטער־זמן. אָט איז דער אויסקלײַב:
• די ייִדישע קולטור־אינפֿראַסטרוקטור פֿונעם אַמעריקאַנער קאָמוניזם
• אונגעריש־ייִדיש צווישן די וועלט־מלחמות
• דער לשון־קודש־קאָמפּאָנענט אין מרדכי שעכטערס לערנבוך „ייִדיש צוויי“
• די דערציילונגען פֿון יצחק באַשעוויס
• דער אָנהייב פֿון מאָדערנעם ייִדישן טעאַטער: אַבֿרהם גאָלדפֿאַדען און די ערשטע אַקטריסעס אויף דער בינע
• שלום אַשעס ראָמאַן „אויף קידוש השם“
• מאַני לייבס סאָנעטן
• ש. אַנ־סקי, דער „בעל־תּשובֿה“ וואָס האָט פּראָוואָצירט אַ רעוואָלוציע אין פֿאָלקלאָר
• דאָס קול פֿונעם ייִדישן שרײַבער — רעקאָרדירונגען פֿון דערציילונגען און לידער פֿאָרגעלייענט פֿון די שרײַבער אַליין
• די קולטור־ירושה פֿון די ייִדישע שרײַבער אין אוקראַיִנע (1950ער ביז די 1980ער)
נאָך מער פּרטים אָדער זיך צו פֿאַרשרײַבן אויף איינעם אָדער מער פֿון די קורסן, גיט אַ קוועטש דאָ.
The post A course on the Yiddish proverbs collected through the An-Ski expeditions appeared first on The Forward.
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White House Religious Liberty Panel Member Decries ‘Zionist Supremacy,’ Vows Not to Resign Despite Backlash
Carrie Prejean Boller speaks during a White House Religious Liberty Commission hearing on Feb. 9, 2026. Photo: Screenshot
Carrie Prejean Boller, a member of the White House Religious Liberty Commission, has vowed to combat so-called “Zionist supremacy” in the United States, sparking fresh outrage amid ongoing furor over her recent comments condemning the Jewish state and defending antisemitic podcaster Candace Owens.
“I will continue to stand against Zionist supremacy in America. I’m a proud Catholic. I, in no way will be forced to embrace Zionism as a fulfillment of biblical prophesy [sic]. I am a free American. Not a slave to a foreign nation,” Prejean Boller posted on the social media platform X on Tuesday.
Thank you all for the love and support I’ve received. I will continue to stand against Zionist supremacy in America. I’m a proud Catholic. I, in no way will be forced to embrace Zionism as a fulfillment of biblical prophesy. I am a free American. Not a slave to a foreign nation.
— Carrie Prejean Boller (@CarriePrejean1) February 10, 2026
The comments came on the heels of furor over Prejean Boller’s conduct during Monday’s hearing of the 13-member White House Religious Liberty Commission, which descended into a tense back-and-forth after she asked pointed questions about Israel’s policies and whether rejection of the Jewish state’s legitimacy should itself be labeled antisemitic.
The council was established by US President Donald Trump to examine religious freedom issues and was intended to focus on concrete challenges facing Jewish communities, including bias and harassment. Prejean Boller’s conduct, which included an impassioned defense of antisemitic personalities Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson, and her peddling of unsubstantiated claims that Israel has intentionally starved and murdered Palestinian civilians, raised alarm bells among pro-Israel advocates.
“I would really appreciate it if you would stop calling Candace Owens an antisemite,” Prejean Boller said to Seth Dillon, CEO of the political satire site Babylon Bee, during the hearing. “She’s not an antisemite. She just doesn’t support Zionism, and that really has to stop. I don’t know why you keep bringing her up, and Tucker.”
Owens, one of the country’s most popular podcasters, has spent the past two years spreading antisemitic conspiracy theories on her platform. She has called Jews “pedophilic,” argued that they oppress and murder Christians, and asserted that they are responsible for the trans-Atlantic slave trade.
Prejean Boller, a conservative activist and former Miss California, repeatedly pressed witnesses about Israel’s actions in Gaza and religious leaders on their views of Zionism, drawing audible boos from the audience and confusion from her colleagues. At one point she asked a Jewish activist if he would condemn Israel’s military response to Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel, despite the hearing’s official focus on domestic antisemitism. Prejean Boller also donned a Palestinian flag pin on the lapel of her suit, telegraphing her support for the anti-Israel ideological cause.
“Since we’ve mentioned Israel a total of 17 times, are you willing to condemn what Israel has done in Gaza?” Boller asked Jewish activist Shabbos Kestenbaum.
During the hearing, she also accused Rabbi Ari Berman, president of Yeshiva University, of Islamophobia after he declared that anti-Zionism — the belief that Israel does not have a right to exist —is an antisemitic ideology. Berman argued that attempts to delegitimize the existence of the world’s sole Jewish state, while showing ambivalence toward the existence of dozens of Muslim states, indicates anti-Jewish sentiment.
Panel members repeatedly stressed that American universities and communities must do more to confront bias and ensure Jewish students can live without fear of harassment.
Members of the commission expressed visible surprise at Prejean Boller’s line of questioning and repeated downplaying of antisemitism. Kestenbaum took aim at Prejean Boller after she asserted that the young activist had conflated antisemitism with harboring anti-Israel sentiment.
“She decided that this should be a debate on Israel’s conduct in Gaza, which I’m not entirely sure how that affects American students being discriminated against,” Kestenbaum said, “given that there are hundreds of millions of Catholics, including some who are on this commission, speaking at this commission today, who would vehemently disagree with such a grandiose assertion.”
Spectators suggested that the hearing also spotlighted deeper fissures within the conservative movement. Prejean Boller’s impassioned defense of Owens and Carlson, who have spent the past few years peddling anti-Israel conspiracies, suggest that their narratives may be penetrating deeper into the Republican base. The hearing also raised questions about the White House’s vetting process for the commission.
A recent analysis by the Jewish People Policy Institute found that both Carlson and Owens dramatically increased the volume and intensity of negative content about Israel in 2025, with Owens also incorporating explicit antisemitic language and conspiracy narratives, including accusations of disproportionate violence and undue influence over US policy into her commentary.
Carlson, the former Fox News host whose podcast remains influential among conservative audiences, has in recent years amplified fringe voices, including figures such as white nationalist streamer Nick Fuentes. Carlson’s interviews have featured conspiratorial depictions of “Christian Zionists” as afflicted by a “brain virus,” and his platforming of extremists and Holocaust minimizers has drawn widespread condemnation from lawmakers and civil rights advocates across the ideological spectrum.
Some prominent conservative voices have demanded for Prejean Boller to resign or be removed from the commission, arguing that her views are counter to the mission of the initiative. Prejean Boller has repeatedly refused to relinquish her position, arguing that her Catholic faith does not allow for support of Israel and doing so would signal a surrender to “Zionist supremacy.”
However, conservative reporter and podcaster Laura Loomer stated that sources at the US State Department are pressing for the Trump administration to remove Prejean Boller from the panel.
“Carrie’s behavior is unacceptable and is not representative of the Trump administration’s values. We have asked the White House to take action,” Loomer posted on social media, attributing the quote to an unnamed State Department official.
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13-Year-Old Boy Brutally Assaulted in Paris in Second Antisemitic Attack in Less Than a Week
Tens of thousands of French people march in Paris to protest against antisemitism. Photo: Screenshot
In a shocking second antisemitic attack in less than a week, a 13-year-old boy in Paris was brutally beaten Monday by a knife-wielding assailant, prompting authorities to open a criminal investigation and step up security amid a rising tide of antisemitism.
On his way to a synagogue in Paris’s 18th arrondissement, the schoolboy was physically attacked by a group of five assailants who beat him, pressed a knife to his throat, called him a “dirty Jew,” and stole his belongings, the French news outlet Le Parisien reported.
According to the Paris prosecutor’s office, the victim was walking to a synagogue, clutching his kippah in his hand rather than wearing it for fear of being recognized, when five attackers confronted him; stole his AirPods, sneakers, and coat; and forced him to empty his pockets.
The boy also told authorities that he was shoved, punched in the face, and threatened with a knife to his throat before his attackers stole his belongings, shouting antisemitic remarks throughout the assault.
Local police have arrested and taken an 18-year-old suspect into custody after he was recognized during the assault by someone on a video call with the victim. The four other attackers remain at large as of this writing.
The prosecutor’s office has opened an investigation into armed robbery and armed violence, committed as a group and aggravated by discrimination, as authorities continue to work to identify and apprehend the remaining suspects.
This latest antisemitic attack marks the second such incident in less than a week, underscoring a growing climate of hostility as Jews and Israelis face a surge of targeted assaults.
Over the weekend, three Jewish men wearing kippahs were physically threatened with a knife and forced to flee after leaving their Shabbat services near the Trocadéro in southwest Paris’s 16th arrondissement, European Jewish Press reported.
As the victims were leaving a nearby synagogue and walking through the neighborhood, they noticed a man staring at them. The assailant then approached the group and repeatedly asked, “Are you Jews? Are you Israelis?”
When one of them replied “yes,” the man pulled a knife from his pocket and began threatening the group. The victims immediately ran and found police officers nearby. None of the victims were injured.
Like most countries across Europe and the broader Western world, France has seen a rise in antisemitic incidents over the last two years, in the wake of the Hamas-led invasion of and massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
According to the French Interior Ministry, the first six months of 2025 saw more than 640 antisemitic incidents, a 27.5 percent decline from the same period in 2024, but a 112.5 percent increase compared to the first half of 2023, before the Oct. 7 atrocities.
Last week, a Jewish primary school in eastern Paris was vandalized, with windows smashed and security equipment damaged, prompting a criminal investigation and renewed outrage among local Jewish leaders as targeted antisemitic attacks continued to escalate.