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In Economic Speeches, Trump Claims Inflation Victory Nearly 20 Times Even as Prices Bite
US President Donald Trump gestures on the day he delivers a speech on energy and the economy, in Clive, Iowa, US, January 27, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
Donald Trump has cast himself as Republicans’ chief messenger on the cost of living in an election year, but a Reuters review of his speeches shows a president repeatedly declaring inflation beaten while rarely acknowledging the strain many Americans say they still feel.
In five speeches on the economy since December, Trump asserted that inflation had been beaten or was way down almost 20 times and said prices were falling almost 30 times, assertions at odds with economic data and voters’ daily experiences. Much of the remaining time was spent on grievances and other issues, including immigration, whether Somalia was a country, and attacks on opponents.
Taken together, the speeches portray a president struggling to reconcile his central claim — that he has fixed the cost-of-living crisis — with inflation near 3% over the past year and voters’ lived experience of paying more for grocery staples. The price of ground beef, for example, is up 18% since Trump took office a year ago, while ground coffee prices are up 29%.
Republican strategists told Reuters that his mixed messaging on the top issue for voters risks creating a credibility gap for him and the Republican Party ahead of the November midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. Opinion polls show voters are deeply unhappy with Trump‘s handling of the economy.
“He can’t continue to make claims that are demonstrably false, particularly at the expense of Republicans who are in competitive House districts or Senate races,” said Rob Godfrey, a Republican strategist. Trump “must be disciplined and focused,” he added.
One source close to the White House said the president needed to hit the issue of affordability harder and through personal visits to critical districts.
“He needs to bring the message out because the message is not resonating,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity to more freely discuss the issue.
Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said Trump’s focus on illegal immigration in his speeches is directly connected to his argument that people in the country illegally have an adverse impact on the economy. Desai said it causes “public services being overburdened, business activity disrupted by crime, housing markets flooded, and workers’ wages depressed.”
Trump has repeatedly stressed that much work remains to clean up the economic mess he says his Democratic predecessor, Joe Biden, left him, Desai added.
TRUMP VEERS OFF MESSAGE TO RAIL ABOUT IMMIGRATION
The Reuters analysis found that Trump – when not declaring inflation beaten – devoted nearly half his speaking time to grievances and other issues.
In about five hours of speaking time, he spent roughly two hours straying into about 20 topics unrelated to prices, the Reuters review found. When he veered off message, his top issue was illegal immigration, which he spent a total of about 30 to 40 minutes talking about.
In the speeches he insulted Somali Americans in Minnesota, who voted against him in the 2024 election. He referred to Somalia as “not even a country” – and in four speeches he disparaged Somali-born Minnesota congresswoman Ilhan Omar.
A progressive, high-profile Democrat and Muslim, Omar has been a frequent Trump critic, especially over his immigration policies.
“Every time the president of the United States has chosen to use hateful rhetoric to talk about me and the community that I represent, my death threats skyrocket,” Omar said last month, the day after a man sprayed a foul-smelling liquid on her at a town hall event.
Trump also talked about men in women’s sports, Venezuela, Iran, the Islamic State militant group, Greenland, Ukraine and Russia, military recruitment, his false claim that the 2020 election was rigged, US weaponry, his exaggerated claim to have ended eight wars, and even how much a Fox News anchor likes him.
TRUMP‘S MEANDERING WORRIES STRATEGISTS
“Inflation is stopped. Incomes are up. Prices are down,” Trump said in an Iowa speech on January 27.
Only twice in the five speeches did Trump acknowledge that prices are still too high, but he blamed them on Biden. Trump was elected in 2024 because of voter unhappiness with Biden’s handling of inflation – which spiked to over 9% in 2022 – and illegal immigration.
Democrats caused prices “to be too high,” Trump told a rally in Pennsylvania on December 9. “But now they’re coming down.”
In the same speech he called the term “affordability” a Democratic “hoax”. After a public backlash, he has ceased saying that in more recent speeches.
In four of the speeches Trump repeatedly and haphazardly switches topics, often when he is in the middle of talking about the economy, the Reuters review found.
Four Republican strategists interviewed by Reuters said Trump‘s meandering style – which he proudly calls “the weave” – risked drowning out his core economic argument that he has brought inflation and prices down.
Speaking to world leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 21, Trump spent the first 22 minutes on topic, then suddenly, for the next 22 minutes, insulted Europeans, said they would be speaking German if it wasn’t for America, called NATO ungrateful, and decried the “crooked” media before pivoting back to the US economy.
Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, said voters want to hear what Trump is doing to lower costs. “But they have no memory of what Trump says about economic issues because of the volume of his own rhetoric.”
One source familiar with the White House’s thinking said Trump was likely to use his State of the Union address on February 24 as the kickoff for more intense domestic travel to amplify his message on affordability.
TRUMP DOES OFFER SOLUTIONS
For many Americans, the economy still feels unforgiving. Prices remain high, even though the inflation rate has inched down since Trump took office, from 3% to 2.7%. A lower inflation rate does not mean prices are decreasing – just that they are growing at a slower pace, economists stress.
In the 12 months through December 2025, food costs were up over 3%, while average hourly earnings were up only 1.1% year over year. The unemployment rate was 4.4% in December, up from 4% when Trump took office in January 2025, according to government data.
In some of the speeches Trump correctly identifies a drop in prices for a few everyday goods, including eggs and gas. The cost of eggs fell about 21% in December from a year earlier after being 60% higher during Trump‘s first months back in office. Gas prices are about 4% lower since January last year.
But the cost of an average grocery basket has risen. The price of coffee, beef, and some fruits, among other items, has risen in the past year.
Trump does offer solutions in his speeches, including his tax cuts that kicked in last month that will produce greater savings for tens of millions of families; the scrapping of taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security payments; his plan to reduce mortgage interest rates; a proposal to lower housing prices; and deals with health insurance companies to reduce drug prices.
Most economists expect US households and the economy at large to benefit in the months ahead from the tax cuts. But Trump‘s more recent proposals are unlikely to have a significant impact on the cost of living between now and November, some economists told Reuters. One of Trump‘s ideas – to cap credit card interest rates to 10% for a year – could even backfire since it could limit access to credit for lower-income families, some economists have warned.
Mike Marinella, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which supports candidates for the House of Representatives, said Trump and Republicans were helping working families. “Voters are seeing this clear contrast, and the best is yet to come.”
Some 35% of Americans approve of Trump‘s overall handling of the economy, according to a January 25 Reuters/Ipsos poll, up slightly from 33% in December. But it is well below his initial 42% rating on the issue when he first took office a year ago.
FALLING INTO BIDEN TRAP
Former economic officials in previous administrations say Trump is falling into the same trap Biden did in 2024 when confronted with persistently high inflation.
Biden kept claiming the US economy was strong and urged voters to look at other economic data. That strategy failed badly and Democrats were punished at the polls.
The officials agreed it was important for presidents to show voters they understood their economic pain, especially in an election year.
“We definitely talked past people on inflation,” Jared Bernstein, the head of Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview.
“What we typically did was to say, ‘A new report just came out on jobs, it’s very strong,’ and that was all true. But the fact is that there wasn’t much we were able to do in terms of the price level.”
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Somalia’s South West State Says It Has Severed Ties With the Federal Government
FILE PHOTO: Somalia’s presidential candidate of South West state Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed speaks inside the Somali Parliament house in Mogadishu, Somalia April 30, 2018. Photo: REUTERS/Feisal Omar/File Photo
Somalia’s South West state said on Tuesday it was suspending all cooperation and relations with the government in Mogadishu, the latest sign of strain in the Horn of Africa country’s fragile federal system.
At a press conference, South West officials accused the federal government of arming militias and trying to unseat the state’s president, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. Somalia’s defense and information ministers did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
Disputes over constitutional changes, elections and the balance of power between Mogadishu and regional administrations repeatedly open up political fault lines in Somalia. The South West administration says relations with Mogadishu worsened after the federal government pushed through constitutional amendments opposed by some state leaders.
Travel agencies told Reuters on Tuesday that commercial flights between Mogadishu and Baidoa, the administrative capital of South West state, had been halted. Humanitarian flights, including for United Nations operations, were continuing. Baidoa, which lies about 245 km (150 miles) northwest of Mogadishu, is a politically and militarily sensitive city because it hosts federal troops, regional security forces and international humanitarian operations in a zone affected by drought, conflict and displacement.
The Mogadishu government’s relations with other states have also been fraught. Somaliland declared independence in 1991 and has long been outside Mogadishu’s control. The administration of semi-autonomous Puntland said in March 2024 it would no longer recognize the federal government until disputed constitutional amendments were approved in a nationwide referendum.
Semi-autonomous Jubbaland suspended ties with Mogadishu in November 2024 in a dispute over regional elections.
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Report: Iran Sees Control of Strait of Hormuz as Victory Over US, Israel
An LPG gas tanker at anchor as traffic is down in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Shinas, Oman, March 11, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
i24 News – Iran is showing no indication it is ready to end the war with the United States and Israel, as officials say Tehran is relying on its control over the Strait of Hormuz to increase global economic pressure and strengthen its position.
According to regional officials cited by The Washington Post, Iran is rejecting diplomatic efforts to identify an off-ramp and instead escalating attacks on neighboring countries. An Iranian diplomat said the strategy is to “make this aggression super expensive for the aggressors,” as Tehran faces sustained military pressure.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to Iran’s calculations. The waterway carries roughly one-fifth of global fuel shipments, and its partial closure has disrupted energy markets. US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the route, warning of further escalation if it does not comply.
Iranian officials and diplomats said the leadership views its ability to maintain pressure through the strait as a short-term success, even as infrastructure damage mounts. “They don’t feel any pressure to negotiate,” one European diplomat based in the Gulf said, adding that Iran sees its influence over oil markets as a form of leverage.
At the same time, efforts to mediate a ceasefire have so far failed. Officials from Qatar and Oman approached Iran last week, but Tehran said it would only engage if US and Israeli strikes stopped first. An Iranian diplomat said the country would not accept a “premature ceasefire” and is seeking guarantees, including compensation and commitments to prevent future attacks.
The war has already caused significant damage. The Pentagon says more than 15,000 targets have been struck across Iran, while Iranian authorities report over 1,200 civilian deaths. The conflict has also expanded regionally, with Iranian strikes targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf states following attacks on its own facilities.
Despite mounting losses, analysts say Iran’s leadership believes prolonging the conflict could shift pressure onto Washington and its allies through rising energy prices and regional instability. “We’re still on an escalatory path,” said Alan Eyre, a former US official, adding that Tehran is attempting to “up the costs” rather than move toward negotiations.
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Persistent Iran War, Energy Price Surge Set to Sway Wavering Stocks
Stock ticker. Photo: Ahmad Ardity/Wikimedia Commons.
A Middle East crisis that has convulsed markets should remain the focal point for Wall Street in the near term, as investors stay glued to developments in Iran and the fallout from surging energy prices.
As the US-Israeli war on Iran stretches to three weeks, an over 40% jump in oil prices is driving worries about higher inflation and stagnating economic growth.
Inflationary concerns on Friday were prompting markets to rule out any equity-friendly interest rate cuts this year, which investors previously had been counting on, with futures trading instead suggesting modest chances of hikes in 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed deep uncertainty at the US central bank’s meeting on Wednesday about how the crisis would factor into the economy, muddying its ability to forecast conditions ahead.
US stocks suffered sharp declines to end the week. The benchmark S&P 500 stock index posted its fourth straight weekly decline and hit a six-month low, while the Nasdaq Composite ended down nearly 10% below its October all-time high.
Middle East tensions escalated this week. Iran attacked energy facilities across the region following Israel’s strike on its gas field, while officials told Reuters on Friday that the US military is deploying thousands of Marines to the Middle East.
“This is a situation that’s so fluid,” said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. “We could have a resolution in the next week or it could go on for some time. And the longer it goes on, you start to think about the impacts it could have on the US economy.”
WATCHING OIL, STOCKS’ ‘ORDERLY’ REACTION
Swings in crude prices have rippled through asset classes. US crude settled around $98 a barrel on Friday, while Brent ended around $112. In addition to the attacks on energy infrastructure, traffic has stalled in the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes.
The 20-day correlation between the S&P 500 and US crude stood at -0.89 late on Friday, according to LSEG data, a strong inverse relationship that showed they have tended to move in opposite directions.
“If you’re a trader, you watch oil prices because I do think that that’s generally giving the leading indicator as to how the financial markets are viewing the outlook for the conflict,” said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp.
The S&P 500 energy sector, which includes shares of oil companies, has gained since crude prices began to spike in late February, but the group accounts for less than a 4% weight in the benchmark index.
The latest declines left the S&P 500 down 6.8% from its record closing high set in late January. The pullback has mostly lacked the chaotic quality of the abrupt equity slide last April following President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement that set off broad economic worries, Fasciano said.
“This has been fairly orderly, which I think is an encouraging sign,” Fasciano said. “And I think it’s because the underlying fundamentals for corporate America are still fairly robust and are offering some support.”
TREASURY YIELDS, MARKET TECHNICALS ALSO IN FOCUS
Fast-climbing Treasury yields, driven higher by the energy price spike and caution from global central banks, were looming as a risk factor for stocks. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last at 4.38% on Friday, its highest level since last summer.
Keith Lerner, chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, said he was watching whether the 10-year Treasury yield sustainably rises above 4.3%, which could increase pressure on stocks, while he was also eyeing 4.5% as a key level.
“Rates going higher means borrowing costs are somewhat higher. And then that could actually slow the economy,” Lerner said. “At some point, if they keep going higher, then the relative attractiveness of (bond) yields becomes more attractive relative to equities.”
Stocks were also around key technical levels. The S&P 500 on Thursday closed below its 200-day moving average — a closely watched long-term trendline — for the first time since May. With another decline on Friday, the index ended at its lowest point since September and fell below November lows that strategists had also identified as worrisome levels.
Reports on manufacturing, services activity and consumer sentiment highlight a relatively light week ahead for US economic data. A major energy conference in Houston that will feature top global industry executives could draw Wall Street’s attention.
Events in Iran were likely to loom largest. In a note on Thursday morning, analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management said the latest developments were “pushing markets to price in a higher risk of prolonged conflict, deeper infrastructure damage and higher-for-longer crude prices.”
“While a less damaging outcome in the Strait of Hormuz remains possible, recent events have narrowed that path and heightened the risk of continued volatility,” the UBS analysts said.