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Israel is at an existential pivot point. It never needed to go this far.
Two years after the Oct. 7 massacre, the Middle East is at an absurd pivot point. If Hamas, badly beaten but unbowed, accepts the disarmament element in President Donald Trump’s new peace plan, the region will move toward reconstruction, Gulf-financed normalization, and peace. If it refuses, Israel will likely re-occupy Gaza, miring the region in a ruinous quagmire.
That so much now depends on the whim of a terrorist group is a scandal — the product not only of Hamas’s diabolical strategy and indifference to loss of life, but of American weakness and, crucially, a chain of catastrophically bad choices by Israelis. It did not have to be this way.
The choice between abyss and opportunity is simple in outline and brutal in consequence. One future is endless counterinsurgency in Gaza: Soldiers patrolling hostile alleys and encountering roadside bombs, with Palestinian families under curfew, while Israel’s economy bleeds, its society seethes and its global standing plummets. The other is the disarmament and removal of Hamas, with the hostages returned, Gulf money flowing into reconstruction, and quite possibly dramatic moves toward normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and maybe others.
That binary was manufactured, step by avoidable step, by foolishness, arrogance, and weakness from key players:
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- The political opening: Netanyahu’s return. The rightward re-alignment of Israeli politics after repeated elections was caused by splits in the center-left, and an utter lack of focus from Israel’s moderate parties that made Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s comeback possible. The coalition he assembled after the November 2022 election, dependent on fanatics and brimming with ex-cons and incompetents, was a disaster waiting to happen. The wait wasn’t long.
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- Judicial overhaul and societal schism. Netanyahu’s drive to neuter the judiciary and establish an illiberal majoritarian semi-democracy, similar to that of nearby Turkey, began within days of his resuming power. It tore Israeli society apart in 2023, provoking mass protests and deepening social polarization — a rupture that the security establishment warned would project weakness and invite attack.
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- Ignoring security warnings and intelligence. Knowing this was their position, Netanyahu refused to meet with the heads of the military, Shin Bet and Mossad in the weeks and months before Oct. 7. For their part, the security chiefs also ignored multiple intelligence indicators of Hamas’ intent for a major attack. The signals were minimized or misread — a classic bureaucratic pattern of cognitive failure. As for Netanyahu, his fabulously misguided position, for many years, was that Hamas ruling Gaza was useful because it weakened the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank — which is threatening to him precisely because it is moderate.
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- Troop diversion to the West Bank. In the run-up to Oct. 7, forces and attention were redirected to the West Bank to manage flashpoints — a political decision tied to coalition pressures to accommodate radical settlers determined to provoke the Palestinians, which left the Gaza boundary defense much thinner than it should have been.
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- Tactical failures on Oct. 7. When the assault began, early military warnings were not acted on, local commanders were confused, communications broke down, and reinforcements arrived too late, often not unless 10 hours later, in a small country.
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- Blundering into war. Israel briefly held the moral high ground as the world recognized Hamas’ act of barbarism. Arab capitals were unusually receptive, and the diplomatic leverage was enormous. That was the moment to demand the release of hostages, insist on Hamas surrendering Gaza’s administration to the Palestinian Authority, and make disarmament a multilateral demand enforced by a regional-Western coalition. If Hamas had refused, the world would have been forced into an explicit test — and come to understand, once and for all, that war was the option Hamas wanted.
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- Ignoring the hostage problem. It was obvious from the start that Israel could not destroy Hamas while the group held hostages in Gaza. The captives were a human shield, ensuring that any attempt at “total victory” would be self-defeating. Netanyahu denied this, promising that annihilation was possible while sending the army in and out of the same ruins two years of an endless cat-and-mouse.
These step-by-step misfires, together, make it clear that at every subsequent juncture, Netanyahu chose to prolong kinetic action. A permanent state of emergency enabled him to argue for deferring accountability and shifting the discussion away from the unwinnable one about his role in Oct. 7.
And the United States showed weakness and complicity with nonsense at key moments.
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- A missed opportunity. In late 2023 and early 2024, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken was crisscrossing the region to put together a comprehensive plan: return of all hostages, the Palestinian Authority restored to Gaza, normalization with Saudi Arabia. Officials in President Joe Biden’s administration believed it was achievable. Netanyahu refused, knowing his coalition would collapse. Biden, astonishingly, effectively accepted the rebuff — a display of weakness that allowed the war to grind on, and, of course, hurt the Democrats’ chances to retain the American presidency.
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- Biden’s big error. Biden went further, publicly endorsing Netanyahu’s own outline for ending the war in exchange for hostages. Within weeks, Netanyahu reneged, and Biden again let it pass. The cost was counted not only in the lives of Palestinian civilians, but also in those of Israeli soldiers and hostages who might have been saved.
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- And Trump’s. By January, 2025, after 15 months of devastation, a reelected Trump forced Netanyahu to accept what was essentially the same plan as Biden had put forward. But Netanyahu walked away halfway through implementation, without even denying that doing so was a violation of the deal — because Trump allowed him to (and indeed was then advocating for the expulsion of all Gazans in favor of a U.S.-built “riviera”).
Each of these errors compounded the others and cost many lives.
On the Palestinian side, it is widely believed that some 65,000 people are dead, over half of them civilians — although all numbers from Gaza are suspect, as they come from authorities linked to Hamas. According to Israel’s Defense Ministry, 1,152 Israeli soldiers and security personnel have been killed in the course of the war, including several hundred in the Oct. 7 attack itself. Of the 251 people abducted on Oct. 7, the vast majority of them civilians, at least 83 are believed to have been killed — the cost of these decisions to not prioritize their release.
At every pause when Netanyahu prolonged the war he could say “Hamas is not yet destroyed.” People who both wanted Hamas gone and the hostages freed could be manipulated into tolerating continuation of fighting. That line sustained support from about a third of the public.
What are the lessons of this litany of error — other than the obvious one, that Netanyahu must be removed from power at almost any cost?
The big one is that Israel, even if Hamas says no to Trump’s deal, must resist the impulse to push forward militarily. Two years of devastation have made it plain: The war cannot be “won” so long as hostages remain in Hamas’s grip, and every repetition of the cat-and-mouse in Gaza only weakens Israel’s legitimacy and social cohesion, while strengthening Hamas’s narrative.
If Hamas refuses to disarm, the wiser course is to flip the script, and increase pressure on them without further military action.
The priority must be the hostages: Every diplomatic channel and instrument of international pressure should be deployed to secure their release. Humanitarian suffering must be addressed by offering civilians temporary refuge — in Egypt, in the West Bank, or elsewhere — guaranteed by international commitments of return once Hamas is gone.
This is not ethnic cleansing; it is protection, analogous to Ukrainians sheltering in Poland during the Russian assault. Properly framed, it exposes Hamas as the jailer of Gaza’s people.
If Hamas breaks, then excellent: the Trump plan can proceed with a technocratic Palestinian government in Gaza, reforms in the Palestinian Authority, Gulf-financed reconstruction, and normalization with Saudi Arabia and beyond. If Hamas refuses, the world must be made to see that Palestinian misery is not the people’s inevitable fate, but the direct consequence of Hamas’s obstinacy.
The fact that the Middle East’s future now waits on Hamas is not some cosmic inevitability: it is the fruit of a sequence of political, tactical and strategic mistakes. Israel must learn from this disaster, and take steps never to be so exposed in the future.
The post Israel is at an existential pivot point. It never needed to go this far. appeared first on The Forward.
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Trump Threatens to Hit Iran ‘Very Hard’ if More Protesters Killed as Supreme Leader Said to Be Prepared to Flee
Protesters march in downtown Tehran, Iran, Dec. 29, 2025. Photo: Screenshot
US President Donald Trump on Sunday evening warned Iran that it will get “hit very hard” if the regime kills more protesters, as anti-government demonstrations enter a second week and the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is reportedly preparing an escape amid rising domestic unrest.
“We’re watching [the situation] very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
Trump’s latest threat comes after he warned last week that Washington will intervene if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters.”
Sparked by a shopkeepers’ strike in Tehran last week, protests have swept the country, sparked by the soaring cost of living, a worsening economic crisis, and the rial — Iran’s currency — plunging to record lows in the wake of renewed United Nations sanctions.
For more than one week, anti-regime protests have shaken Iran, with violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces escalating amid intensifying domestic crises.
On Saturday, Khamenei accused “enemies of the Islamic Republic” of stoking unrest and warned that “rioters should be put in their place,” Iranian media reported.
Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, also said that while citizens have a right to protest, the government will show no leniency toward “rioters.”
According to the US-based Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRAI), protests have spread to at least 78 cities, with the regime killing 20 people — including three children — arresting nearly 1,000, and detaining more than 40 minors.
Amid a deepening economic crisis worsened by a 12-day June war with Israel and the US that struck several of Iran’s nuclear sites, the regime has ramped up its crackdown on protesters and opposition figures trying to maintain stability.
Media reports indicate that anti-riot forces — including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia, local police, and the army — have used violent tactics such as live fire, tear gas, and water cannons to suppress demonstrations.
In widely circulated social media videos, protesters can be heard chanting slogans such as “Death to the dictator” and “Khamenei will be toppled this year,” while also calling for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to step down.
Videos sent to Iran International show security forces confronting protesting shopkeepers in central Tehran on Monday, with riot police deployed around the Grand Bazaar and tear gas used on Jomhouri Street near the Hafez underpass. pic.twitter.com/OyhQlyUJaN
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) December 29, 2025
Meanwhile, Khamenei reportedly has a backup plan to flee the country if his security forces fail to suppress protests or begin to desert, according to The Times.
“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told the British newspaper.
Khamenei would reportedly flee to Moscow, following the path of ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024.
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Pro-Hamas Arson Attack Targets Home of Antisemitism Commissioner in Germany
An image of arson and vandalism near the home of Andreas Büttner, commissioner for combating antisemitism in the German state of Brandenburg. Photo: Screenshot
Investigators in Germany have started reviewing an arson attack on Sunday against the home of Andreas Büttner, commissioner for combating antisemitism in the state of Brandenburg, where assailants set fire to a shed at his property in Templin — a town located approximately 43 miles north of Berlin — and spray-painted an inverted red triangle, the symbol of support for the Islamist terrorist group Hamas.
“My thoughts are with Andreas Büttner and his family,” Israeli Ambassador to Germany Ron Prosor posted on X. “Knowing him as I do, after this attack he will only stand up even more resolutely against antisemitism. For the radical part of the ‘Palestine solidarity’ movement is not only antisemitic, but terrorist.”
Prosor explained the significance of the red triangle, writing, “Attacks on those who think differently and attempted murder: That is what the Hamas triangle stands for — in Gaza as in Brandenburg. And the hatred of Israel goes hand in hand with hatred of our democracy. The rule of law must smash these terrorist organizations — and indeed, before they strike again.”
The red triangle vandalism appeared “on the neighboring house’s door entrance,” according to Germany’s DW media.
The home of Germany’s antisemitism commissioner, Andreas Büttner, was set on fire overnight in a targeted attack.
His family was inside the house at the time.
This is the second attack against Büttner in the past 16 months. His car was previously vandalized with swastikas. This… pic.twitter.com/cAbFnMIwQ7
— Combat Antisemitism Movement (@CombatASemitism) January 5, 2026
“The symbol speaks a clear language. The red Hamas triangle is an internationally known sign of jihadist violence and antisemitic incitement,” Büttner said. “Anyone who uses such a thing wants to intimidate and glorify terror. This is not a protest, it is a threat.”
According to Büttner, his family was inside the house at the time of the arson, the second attack against him in the past 16 months. His car was previously vandalized with swastikas.
Büttner released a statement on X.
“This attack represents a massive escalation,” he wrote. “It is directed against me personally, against my family, and against my home. At the same time, it is an expression of hatred and intimidation. I will not be intimidated by this. Anyone who believes that they can achieve something through violence, arson, or threats is mistaken. Such acts do not lead to me becoming quieter or questioning my commitment — they strengthen me in what I do. I ask that you give us the necessary peace today and refrain from further inquiries at the present time.”
Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke also condemned the violence, saying that “violence against people or things is and remains absolutely unacceptable. The police have started the investigation, and I hope that the perpetrator or perpetrators will be caught quickly.”
Jochen Feilcke, chairman of the German-Israeli Society Berlin and Brandenburg, described the attack “as where Hamas’s terrorism was applied on a small scale, including the Hamas triangle, in order to ultimately intimidate all people who defend themselves against increasing antisemitism in Berlin and Brandenburg.”
“Especially the parties of the left camp have every reason to deal with it, because they tolerate this mood or still fuel it,” Feilcke told Tagesspiegel. “They are so jointly responsible for when debates turn into violence.””
The Jewish Virtual Library describes how the inverted red triangle symbol was originally used by the Nazis to designate political prisoners.
“According to Holocaust historians, this triangle was part of a dehumanizing classification system, where each prisoner was identified by different colored triangles depending on their ‘crime,’” writes Or Shaked, deputy director of the Jewish Virtual Library. “The red triangle identified political dissidents, including socialists and communists. After World War II, the survivors of Nazi persecution and their families reclaimed the red triangle as a symbol of resistance to fascism.”
Shaked explains the revival of the symbol in recent years, noting that following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel, the symbol began appearing in Hamas-produced propaganda, marking Israeli military targets. Its use spread to anti-Israel protests, particularly on college campuses and social media, where demonstrators use it to show solidarity with Palestinians.
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Orthodox Jewish Judge to Preside Over Maduro Trial in New York
US District Judge Alvin Hellerstein presides at the Manhattan Federal Court hearing over former US President Donald Trump’s push to move his criminal case to federal court, in New York City, US, June 27, 2023, in a courtroom sketch. Photo: Jane Rosenberg via Reuters Connect
The US federal judge presiding over the criminal proceedings of deposed Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro is an Orthodox Jew from New York City whose 70 years as a legal professional has seen him work on a slew of major cases with historic implications, touching on matters from the 9/11 terrorist attacks to the felony convictions of Donald Trump.
Born in 1933 — a year in which Franklin D. Roosevelt assumed the US presidency, Adolf Hitler rose to power in Germany, and the British Broadcasting Corporation aired the first ever televised boxing match — the future US district judge Alvin Kenneth Hellerstein graduated from Columbia Law School in 1956, the third year of the first Eisenhower administration and the year of the Suez Crisis.
Forty-two years later, after serving as a law clerk, achieving first lieutenant rank in the US Army, and becoming partner at the Stroock & Stroock & Lavan LLP, Hellerstein was appointed to the federal bench by former US President Bill Clinton in 1998 at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, a first of its kind cable media event in which Clinton was accused of carrying on a torrid extramarital affair with a White House intern.
On Monday, Hellerstein lived through another moment of major historical significance, as he arraigned Maduro on narcoterrorism charges stemming from a federal indictment which alleges that he operated a gargantuan drug trafficking operation while administering a dictatorship over Venezuela.
Maduro was transported to New York City by the US military and federal law enforcement agents following an operation to extract him from Venezuela during the early morning hours of Jan. 3. He has since been held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, whose list of recent high-profile inmates include Sam Bankman-Fried, Sean “Diddy” Combs, and Ghislaine Maxwell.
“I was captured at my home in Caracas, Venezuela,” Maduro, joined by his wife and alleged co-conspirator Cilia Flores, told Hellerstein when asked to confirm his name in court on Monday. “I am a decent man. I am still president of my country.”
Hellerstein responded, “There will be a time and a place to go into all of this.” He later notified Maduro of his right to remain silent and authorized the requests of the deposed leader and his wife to receive medical attention.
Maduro’s capture was described by the Trump administration as both a law enforcement action and an application of the Roosevelt Corollary, in which the US assumes the right to secure and stabilize the Western Hemisphere by directly intervening in the domestic affairs of states within it. The policy has shown several faces since its first utterance as the Monroe Doctrine which opposed European colonialism in the hemisphere, and in accordance with it the US has staged actions in Cuba, Haiti, and Grenada.
Hellerstein’s tenure as a federal judge has been eventful. Sept. 11, 2001, victims, narcoterrorists, presidents, and the US government all have sought favorable rulings in his courtroom. In one of his more recent cases, he presided over the trial of Charlie Javice, who was convicted of defrauding JPMorgan Chase of $175 million dollars by duping the firm, one of the oldest and most important in the history of US finance, into believing that she had discovered a way to “simplify” the process for college students to apply for student financial aid. A jury convicted Javice, and Hellerstein sentenced her to 85 months in prison.
As a former president and candidate for the White House, Trump asked Hellerstein to transfer a criminal case alleging that he paid money to quell accusations of an extramarital affair from state court to federal court, a request Hellerstein repelled twice.
Hellerstein has also ruled against the second Trump administration’s attempt to deport alleged illegal migrants of Venezuelan origin under the Alien Enemies Act and detain them in El Salvador, where they would await repatriation. Hellerstein argued that the administration failed to show cause and settled on a different remedy.
“The destination, El Salvador, a country paid to take our aliens, is neither the country from which the aliens came, nor to which they wish to be removed,” Hellerstein wrote in his decision, issued in May amid of flurry of actions taken by new president. “But they are taken there, and there to remain, indefinitely, in a notoriously evil jail, unable to communicate with counsel, family, or friends.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
