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Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank
(Nov. 28, 2024) The terms of the newly minted ceasefire agreement to halt fighting between Israel and Hezbollah amounts to a defeat for the Lebanese terrorist group, although the deal may be difficult to implement, according to two leading US think tanks.
The deal requires Israeli forces to gradually withdraw from southern Lebanon, where they have been operating since early October, over the next 60 days. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army will enter these areas and ensure that Hezbollah retreats north of the Litani River, located some 18 miles north of the border with Israel. The United States and France, who brokered the agreement, will oversee compliance with its terms.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the implications of the deal on Tuesday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.” Hezbollah, which wields significant political and military influence across Lebanon, is the chief proxy force of the Iranian regime.
In its analysis, ISW and CTP explained that the deal amounts to a Hezbollah defeat for two main reasons.
First, “Hezbollah has abandoned several previously-held ceasefire negotiation positions, reflecting the degree to which IDF [Israel Defense Forces] military operations have forced Hezbollah to abandon its war aims.”
Specifically, Hezbollah agreeing to a deal was previously contingent on a ceasefire in Gaza, but that changed after the past two months of Israeli military operations, during which the IDF has decimated much of Hezbollah’s leadership and weapons stockpiles through airstrikes while attempting to push the terrorist army away from its border with a ground offensive.
Additionally, the think tanks noted, “current Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem has also previously expressed opposition to any stipulations giving Israel freedom of action inside Lebanon,” but the deal reportedly allows Israel an ability to respond to Hezbollah if it violates the deal.
Second, the think tanks argued that the agreement was a defeat for Hezbollah because it allowed Israel to achieve its war aim of making it safe for its citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel.
“IDF operations in Lebanese border towns have eliminated the threat of an Oct. 7-style offensive attack by Hezbollah into northern Israel, and the Israeli air campaign has killed many commanders and destroyed much of Hezbollah’s munition stockpiles,” according to ISW and CTP.
Some 70,000 Israelis living in northern Israel have been forced to flee their homes over the past 14 months, amid unrelenting barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah began its attacks last Oct. 8, one day after the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas’s invasion of and massacre across southern Israel. The Jewish state had been exchanging fire with Hezbollah but intensified its military response over the past two months.
Northern Israelis told The Algemeiner this week that they were concerned the new ceasefire deal could open the door to future Hezbollah attacks, but at the same time the ceasefire will allow many of them the first opportunity to return home in a year.
ISW and CTP also noted in their analysis that Israel’s military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s leadership and infrastructure. According to estimates, at least 1,730 Hezbollah terrorists and upwards of 4,000 have been killed over the past year of fighting.
While the deal suggested a defeat of sorts for Hezbollah and the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations, ISW and CTP also argued that several aspects of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement.
“The decision to rely on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and UN observers in Lebanon to respectively secure southern Lebanon and monitor compliance with the ceasefire agreement makes no serious changes to the same system outlined by UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war,” they wrote.
Resolution 1701 called for the complete demilitarization of Hezbollah south of the Litani River and prohibited the presence of armed groups in Lebanon except for the official Lebanese army and the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
This may be an issue because “neither the LAF nor the UN proved willing or able to prevent Hezbollah from reoccupying southern Lebanon and building new infrastructure. Some LAF sources, for example, have expressed a lack of will to enforce this ceasefire because they believe that any fighting with Hezbollah would risk triggering ‘civil war,’” the think tanks assessed.
Nevertheless, the LAF is going to deploy 5,000 troops to the country’s south in order to assume control of their own territory from Hezbollah.
However, the think tanks added, “LAF units have been in southern Lebanon since 2006, but have failed to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to attack Israel.”
The post Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Deal ‘Tantamount to a Hezbollah Defeat,’ Says Leading War Studies Think Tank first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Netanyahu: ‘Our Forces Are Striking the Heart of Tehran With Increasing Strength’
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in the state memorial ceremony for the fallen of the Iron Swords War on Mount Herzl, in Jerusalem, Oct. 16, 2025. Photo: Alex Kolomoisky/Pool via REUTERS
i24 News – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces had “eliminated the dictator Ali Khamenei” along with dozens of senior officials of Iran’s regime during a statement delivered from the roof of the Kirya, Israel’s defense headquarters.
“Yesterday, we eliminated the dictator Khamenei. Along with him, dozens of senior officials from the oppressive regime were eliminated,” Netanyahu said after a meeting with the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff, and the Director of Mossad. He added that he had issued instructions to continue the offensive.
According to Netanyahu, Israeli forces are “now striking at the heart of Tehran with increasing intensity,” a campaign he said will “increase further in the days to come.”
The Prime Minister also acknowledged the toll of the conflict on Israel, calling recent days “painful” and offering condolences to the families of victims in Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh, while wishing a speedy recovery to those injured.
Netanyahu emphasized that the operation mobilizes “the full power of the Israel Defense Forces, like never before,” in order to “guarantee our existence and our future.” He also highlighted US support, noting “the assistance of my friend, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and of the American military.”
“This combination of forces allows us to do what I have hoped to accomplish for 40 years: strike the terrorist regime right in the face,” Netanyahu concluded. “I promised it — and we will keep our word.”
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Trump Says Iran Military Operations Are ‘Ahead of Schedule,’ CNBC Reports
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during military operations in Iran, at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. February 28, 2026. The White House/Social Media/Handout via REUTERS
US President Donald Trump told CNBC on Sunday that US military operations against Iran are “ahead of schedule.”
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Iranian Missile Strike on Beit Shemesh in Israel Kills 9
Emergency personnel work at the site of an Iranian strike, after Iran launched missile barrages following attacks by the US and Israel on Saturday, in Beit Shemesh, Israel, March 1, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
An Iranian missile strike hit the Israeli city of Beit Shemesh on Sunday, killing nine people and wounding dozens, in what authorities described as a direct impact on a public bomb shelter.
A ballistic missile leveled the bomb shelter, leaving a large crater in its wake. Most, if not all, of those killed had been taking cover inside the shelter when it hit, Jerusalem Police Deputy Commissioner Avshalom Peled said at the impact scene.
Those in critical condition were airlifted to Shaare Zedek Medical Center, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
At least 20 people were still missing late on Sunday afternoon local time.
As you read this, an Iranian missile has just struck a residential neighborhood in Beit Shemesh, Israel, only 30 kilometers/about 18 miles from Jerusalem.
Nine people are dead.
More than 20 are wounded, including children. A
public shelter collapsed from the direct hit. An… pic.twitter.com/mEVDlPEqgf
— Ella Kenan (@EllaTravelsLove) March 1, 2026
Several buildings surrounding the shelter in Beit Shemesh, which is west of Jerusalem, were also damaged in the attack, with two collapsing entirely. A synagogue was also destroyed.
Emergency crews from Magen David Adom, ZAKA, and United Hatzalah joined fire and rescue units at the site, combing damaged buildings and debris for possible survivors. Many people were trapped under rubble or inside apartments, first responders said.
The Iranian Regime directly fired missiles toward the civilian neighborhood of Beit Shemesh, killing innocent civilians.
The Iranian regime purposely targets civilian targets while we precisely target terror targets. This is who we’re operating against—a regime who uses… pic.twitter.com/9W8Fp4T2tH
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 1, 2026
Chaim Wingarten, deputy director of operations at rescue organization ZAKA, described the scenes as “very difficult.”
“When I arrived, it was a huge chaos, with wounded people everywhere,” he said.
The strike was part of a larger volley that triggered air-raid sirens across the country. A man in his fifties was wounded by shrapnel elsewhere in central Israel.
IDF foreign media spokesman Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani charged Iran with deliberately firing at civilians. “We know this is their strategy,” he said, adding that Israel would do “everything in our power to remove these capabilities from this bloodthirsty terrorist regime.”
The Beit Shemesh hit marked the highest single-incident death toll inside Israel since the confrontation with Iran began a day earlier. The previous peak came during the 12-day war in June 2025, when a missile slammed into an apartment block in Bat Yam and killed nine people.
The Beit Shemesh strike came a day after US and Israeli forces struck a compound in Tehran killing senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose death was later announced on Iranian state television.
In an interview with Fox News on Sunday, Trump said 48 Iranian leaders were killed in the strikes. “Nobody can believe the success we’re having; 48 leaders are gone in one shot. And it’s moving along rapidly,” he said.
Separately, the American president told CNBC that the US operation was “ahead of schedule.”
Thousands of Iranians braved the strikes and took to the streets to celebrate Khamenei’s death on Saturday evening. Many people stood on balconies and at windows chanting “freedom, freedom,” The New York Times reported. People in the Iranian city of Shiraz were “abandoning their cars for an impromptu dance party, whistling, cheering, clapping, and screaming with joy. In many videos, celebrants joined together in a cheer that is typically reserved for weddings, symbolizing pure joy,” the report said.
GeoConfirmed Iran.
People chanting – Celebrations through the Foolad Shahr area in Isfahan with joy and jubilation over the killing of Khamenei.
Rough location – 32.48169, 51.39167
F9JR+MMF Fuladshahr, Isfahan Province, IranGeoLocated by @Mitch_Ulrich
Geolocation:… https://t.co/iv9TlSPPfS
— GeoConfirmed (@GeoConfirmed) February 28, 2026
Can you hear the joy in his voice?
“I am dreaming, hello world!” pic.twitter.com/ICq77zBerv— William Mehrvarz (@WilliamMehrvarz) March 1, 2026
Iran retaliated by firing repeated waves of missiles and drones, with launches aimed not only at Israel but also at US bases in the Middle East, including Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain. Iran on Sunday morning also launched two missiles at Cyprus, where thousands of British military personnel are stationed, which fell short.
Later in the afternoon, the US acknowledged its first losses with US Central Command, saying three American service members were killed and five were seriously wounded during the operations in Iran.