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The Energy Dilemma: Will Washington Let the Iranian Regime Survive?
A fire burns at South Pars gas field, in Tonbak, Bushehr Province, Iran, in this screen grab from a handout video released on June 14, 2025. Photo: Social Media/via REUTERS
For the first time since the “Second Iran War” began its lightning-fast escalation across the Persian Gulf, a palpable chill has settled over the direct line between the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem and the White House.
While the last 24 hours have seen the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) systematically dismantle the command-and-control structures of the Islamic Republic, a new “Red Line” has emerged — not from Tehran, but from Washington.
Reports circulating early Wednesday suggest that the Trump administration has signaled a sharp hesitation regarding Israel’s planned strikes on Iran’s vital energy infrastructure, specifically the massive South Pars gas field.
As the IDF pushes for total “de-regimification,” the geopolitical friction between two of the world’s closest allies is reaching a boiling point. The question now haunts the halls of the Knesset: Will the American desire for global energy stability stop Israel from achieving a permanent victory?
The South Pars field is more than just a cluster of offshore platforms; it is the respiratory system of the Iranian regime. Holding an estimated 8% of the world’s natural gas reserves, it provides the hard currency that funds the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s regional proxies and its domestic oppression apparatus. For Israel, the logic is simple: you cannot kill the beast while you are still allowing it to breathe.
However, the global markets have reacted with predictable tremors. With the “Second Iran War” already pushing Brent crude toward historic highs, Washington’s reluctance is rooted in the fear of a global “energy shock” that could destabilize the US and world economy. The reported message from the White House to Israel has been one of containment– urging the IDF to “finish the job” on the military leadership. while leaving the energy faucets intact.
But for those who have spent decades analyzing the Middle East, this “half-measure” approach is a recipe for disaster.
Letting the Iranian Regime Survive to Fight Another Day
If the South Pars field remains operational, the regime retains the ability to re-arm, regroup, and wait out the current political storm. History is littered with “half-finished” wars that sowed the seeds of the next generation’s bloodshed. By drawing a red line at Iran’s energy assets, Washington is effectively offering the IRGC a lifeline just as it is gasping for air.
The strategic divergence is clear: Washington is playing a game of global economic management, while Jerusalem is fighting an existential war for the survival of the Jewish State.
The tension comes at a delicate moment. The elimination of Ali Larijani and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib signaled that the regime’s political “mask” had been shattered. The “Axis of Resistance” is crumbling, with even longtime “bridge-builders” like Qatar expelling Iranian diplomats in the wake of the latest missile skirmishes.
In the streets of Tel Aviv and the Jewish diaspora, the sentiment is one of “never again.” There is a deep-seated realization that if the Islamic Republic is allowed to survive this conflict with its economic engine intact, the cycle of terror — from Hamas to Hezbollah — will inevitably restart.
“We are not interested in ‘de-escalation’ for the sake of a cheaper gallon of gas,” one senior Israeli defense official reportedly said under the condition of anonymity. “We are interested in a Middle East where our children do not have to run to bomb shelters every six months. That requires the total neutralization of the threat.”
The Geopolitics of Victory
Peace only occurs when the enemy is convinced they have lost. By shielding Iran’s energy sector, the United States is signaling to the remnants of the mullahs that they still have cards to play. It reinforces the regime’s belief that they are “too big to fail” because of their grip on the world’s thermostat.
Moreover, the “Energy Red Line” risks alienating regional allies who have finally begun to pivot away from Tehran.
If the US appears to be protecting the regime’s assets, the incentive for Gulf states to fully align with the Abraham Accords framework diminishes. Why risk everything for a “new Middle East” if the old one is being kept on life support by Washington?
The Choice Ahead
President Trump, who has frequently touted his role as a “disruptor,” now faces his own paradox. He can choose the short-term stability of the global energy markets, or he can support the long-term stability of a world without a nuclear-armed, terror-funding Islamic Republic.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. We have seen what happens when the world chooses “management” over “victory.” It results in Oct. 7, 2023; it results in 1979; it results in a perpetual state of siege.
Israel is ready to finish the war. The only question remains: Will Washington let them win?
Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx
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Israeli Military Says It ‘Took Out’ Iran’s Caspian Sea Naval Capabilities
Illustrative: A group of Iranian Navy ships. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.
Israel carried out strikes targeting the Iranian navy in the Caspian Sea for the first time on Wednesday, an Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday, telling reporters that Iran’s naval capabilities in the inland sea had been largely disabled.
Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said the Air Force had struck dozens of targets, including missile boats, a corvette, a shipyard used to build and repair vessels, and a command center.
“We have been able to take out their navy capabilities in the Caspian Sea,” he said in an online briefing with reporters.
“That is a systematic strike on all levels of their naval capabilities in the Caspian Sea.”
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US Approves Billions in Arms Sales to Middle East Countries
Smoke billows from Jebel Ali port after an Iranian attack, following United States and Israel strikes on Iran, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Amr Alfik
The US State Department on Thursday approved potential arms sales to three Middle East countries worth more than $16.5 billion as the war with Iran intensifies.
The State Department approved the potential sale of missiles, drones, radar systems, and F-16 munitions and upgrades to the United Arab Emirates for a combined total of more than $8.4 billion, it said in statements.
Also approved were possible sales of lower-tier air and missile defense sensor radars to Kuwait for an estimated cost of $8 billion and aircraft and munitions support to Jordan for an estimated cost of $70.5 million.
The sales follow Iran’s attacks on energy infrastructure in response to Israeli attacks on its gas facilities, which marked the biggest escalation of the nearly three-week war, causing gas prices to surge and oil prices to rise further.
The State Department said the principal contractors in the sales will include RTX Corporation, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin Corporation.
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Two Men Appear in UK Court Accused of Spying on Israeli Embassy, Jewish Targets for Iran
Director General of MI5 Ken McCallum delivers the annual Director General’s Speech at Thames House, the headquarters of the UK’s Security Service, in London, Britain, Oct. 16, 2025. Photo: Jonathan Brady/Pool via REUTERS
Two men appeared in a London court on Thursday accused of being tasked by Iran to carry out hostile surveillance on the Israeli Embassy, Britain’s oldest synagogue, and other Jewish targets.
Nematollah Shahsavani, 40, a dual Iranian-British national, and Alireza Farasati, an Iranian national, 22, are accused of being involved in gathering information and undertaking reconnaissance of targets given to them by Iranian spy services over five weeks last summer.
As such, the alleged activities pre-dated the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran which began on Feb. 28.
Prosecutor Louise Attrill told London’s Westminster Magistrates Court that devices seized from the two men had contained a list of targets.
These included the Israeli Embassy, the Israeli Consulate, London’s Bevis Marks Synagogue, a Jewish community center, and the Community Security Trust, a charity which provides security advice for the country’s Jews.
Attrill said the evidence suggested Shahsavani, who had traveled to Iran last April and was stopped under counter-terrorism powers when he returned to Britain in August, had been given instructions by Iranian intelligence services, and he had tasked Farasati to carry out the surveillance.
The men did not enter a plea and were remanded in custody until their next hearing at London’s Old Bailey Court on April 17. Farasati’s lawyer Alphege Bell said his client was “no religious fanatic.”
British lawmakers and the domestic spy agency MI5 have long warned of threats posed by Iran, with accusations that Tehran was behind more than 20 suspected kidnap and assassination plots.
Iran has repeatedly denied such accusations, saying they are part of a campaign against it by hostile Western powers.
Vicki Evans, the senior national coordinator of Britain’s counter-terrorism police, said she hoped the investigation would reassure Jewish communities that police would act on any threats to their safety.