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What Happens Next for the US and Iran?
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, January 17, 2026. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Having warned Iran’s regime, repeatedly and explicitly, not to brutalize its own people, President Trump now must figure out how to uphold his red line, avoid losing credibility, and impose serious costs on the regime — all without triggering a wider conflict.
Revolutionary regimes like the Islamic Republic try to delegitimize and deflect popular discontent by pinning it on external enemies. Although Trump has spoken out about the protests, Tehran ignored the Biden team’s glaring silence and still blamed America for the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement just a few years ago.
It is therefore no surprise that the speaker of Iran’s parliament has said the country is already in a new round of conflict with America and Israel. Iranian officials also have threatened to attack US regional bases, including preemptively.
Even if the country’s recent nationwide protests have subsided for now, Iran’s regime is fundamentally both unable and unwilling to address the deep-rooted grievances underlying such widespread and steadily worsening internal discontent.
It is strictly a question of when — not if — major unrest returns, and with it, the regime’s enduring instinct and temptation to project its problems outward onto the “Big” and “Little” Satans of America and Israel. Brinkmanship also offers the regime hope of deterring military action during the moments of domestic crisis when its future is most in doubt.
There are plenty of salutary sanctions, cyberwarfare tools, and covert and kinetic options to support protestors, inhibit further crackdowns, and encourage the regime’s ultimate collapse.
By themselves, however, these options are unable to keep Iran from threatening or unleashing massive retaliation against US targets in the process.
A key element of President Trump’s response, and one that fulfills his promise of “hitting them very, very hard where it hurts,” should be to target the regime’s best retaliatory capabilities.
This means its short-range ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, missile boat swarms, anti-ship missiles, and mobile coastal batteries looming over the Gulf, Iraq, and American forces there. By combining mass with precision, the weapons are Iran’s readiest option to counter US threats against its internal security apparatus.
These capabilities were left untouched during the June war, when the United States and Israel focused on nuclear sites and longer-range ballistic missiles. They do not require the time-consuming loading and fueling of those longer-range missiles, and their flight times are shorter.
These short-range projectiles can be launched in large “bolt from the blue” attacks with little early warning, and in great quantities, that strain US-led defenses in the region. Unlike some of its other arsenals, Iran has dangerous incentives to strike first, fast, and hard with these weapons.
Moreover, this Iran weapons program would have an attractive array of high-value targets. American forces cluster in a small handful of bases and warships in the Gulf, adjacent to major energy terminals and the world’s most important energy shipping point in the narrow Strait of Hormuz. These sites do not have anything remotely like Israel’s air and missile shield, a concern reflected in recent comments from senior US military officials about needing time to prepare regional defenses.
Iran’s past attacks with these weapons reliably hit their aimpoints. Most memorably, Iran launched a surprise cruise missile and drone swarm against Saudi energy facilities in 2019, and a ballistic missile barrage against US forces in Iraq several months later.
Even though it chose to telegraph its missile strike on Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar last year, American troops had to evacuate in advance, given their lack of adequate defenses. Both during and since the June conflict, Iran has prepared attacks and conducted military exercises to target US forces and energy shipping around Hormuz.
Iran also knows from past practice that threatening such attacks can generate pressure on America from its Gulf partners, all of whom want to deescalate tensions that could otherwise shoot oil prices upward and jeopardize their ambitious, but vulnerable, economic development projects.
Iran’s regime should know its short-range weapons are central to the strike options being readied for President Trump’s consideration. America’s commander-in-chief should make painfully and explicitly clear that Tehran cannot escalate its way out of its predicament — at home or abroad.
Jonathan Ruhe is the Fellow for American Strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
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Iran’s Guards Will View Military Vessels Approaching Strait as Ceasefire Breach
FILE PHOTO: A map showing the Strait of Hormuz is seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Sunday that any military vessels attempting to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the two-week US ceasefire and be dealt with harshly and decisively.
The strait is under the control and “smart management” of Iran’s Navy, the Guards said in a statement reported by Iranian state media, adding it is “open for the safe passage of non-military vessels in accordance with specific regulations.”
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Iran Rejected US Demand to Stop Funding Proxies, and Halt Uranium Enrichment During Talks
FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iran has rejected core US demands in recent negotiations, including an end to uranium enrichment, the dismantling of major nuclear facilities, and a halt to support for regional terrorist groups, according to a senior US official speaking to Reuters.
The official also said that Tehran refused to end backing for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as calls to fully open the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, underscoring deep divisions that continue to stall diplomacy.
The failed talks come as assessments from officials and experts suggest that Iran’s nuclear program has remained largely resilient despite five weeks of intense US and Israeli strikes.
According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, that while the campaign did cause significant damage to research facilities and parts of Iran’s enrichment infrastructure, the strikes appear to have stopped short of eliminating Iran’s most sensitive capabilities.
Iran likely retains operational centrifuges and access to a heavily fortified underground enrichment site, preserving the technical foundation of its program.
A critical concern for Western officials is Iran’s continued possession of an estimated 1,000 pounds of near-weapons-grade uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency has reported that roughly half of this stockpile is stored in reinforced containers within tunnels beneath the Isfahan nuclear complex.
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Trump Vows to Blockade Strait of Hormuz After Iran Peace Talks Fail to Yield Agreement
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif meets with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as delegations from the United States and Iran are expected to hold peace talks, in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 11, 2026. Office of the Iranian Parliament Speaker/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
President Donald Trump said on Sunday the US Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after marathon talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire.
Trump also said in a post on Truth Social that the US would take action against every vessel in international waters that had paid a toll to Iran, and begin destroying mines that he said the Iranians had dropped in the strait, a choke point for about 20% of global energy supplies that Iran has blocked.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded with a statement warning that military vessels approaching the strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively, underlining the risk of a dangerous escalation.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said in his Truth Social post.
“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump added.
“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he added.
Six weeks of fighting has killed thousands, roiled the global economy and sent oil prices soaring as Iran prevented traffic through the strait.
MORE NEGOTIATIONS?
In an interview with Fox News after his post about the strait, Trump said that he believed Iran would continue to negotiate and called the weekend discussions “very friendly.”
“I do believe they’re going to come to the table on this, because nobody can be so stupid as to say, ‘We want nuclear weapons,’ and they have no cards,” Trump told Fox News from his golf course near Miami, Florida.
Trump also said that NATO allies, whom he has criticized for failing to back the war he launched along with Israel on February 28, wanted to help with the operation in the strait.
There was no immediate comment from Washington’s allies.
The weekend talks in Islamabad, which followed the announcement of a ceasefire last Tuesday, were the first direct US-Iranian meeting in more than a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America,” said Vice President JD Vance, who headed the US delegation.
A US official said Iran had rejected Washington’s call for an end to all uranium enrichment, the dismantling of all major enrichment facilities and the transfer of highly enriched uranium. The two sides also failed to reach agreement on the US demand that Iran cease funding for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis as well as fully open the strait, the official added.
Iran’s Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who led his country’s delegation along with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, blamed the US for not winning Tehran’s trust, despite his team offering “forward-looking initiatives.”
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who discussed the talks in a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Tehran wanted “a balanced and fair agreement.”
“If the United States returns to the framework of international law, reaching an agreement is not far off,” he told Putin, Iranian state media reported.
ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said “excessive” US demands had hindered reaching a deal. Other Iranian media said there was agreement on a number of issues, but the strait and Iran’s nuclear program were the main sticking points.
Despite the stalemate, three supertankers fully laden with oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, shipping data showed, in what appeared to be the first vessels to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire deal.
Israel has continued bombing Tehran-backed Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, insisting – along with Washington – that that conflict was not part of the Iran-US ceasefire. Iran says the fighting in Lebanon must stop.
The Israeli military said it struck Hezbollah rocket launchers overnight into Sunday and black smoke could be seen rising in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut.
And in Israeli villages near the border, air raid sirens sounded, warning of incoming rocket fire from Lebanon.