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The Middle East: 45 Years After the Shah, the US’ Crucial Role in Seeking Stability

Iranian people gather during a ceremony to mark the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, Iran February 11, 2019. Photo: Masoud Shahrestani/Tasnim News Agency/via REUTERS

Forty-five years have passed in Iran since the departure of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, a juncture that profoundly reshaped the Middle East. Today, as the region continues to simmer with unrest, turmoil, and geopolitical complexities, the US intelligence community remains deeply engaged in deciphering this intricate landscape. Central to their focus are counter-terrorism and counterproliferation, as the Middle East, particularly within the Shia Crescent, grapples with the disruptive influence of numerous Islamic terrorist militias supported by Tehran’s mullahs.

In the era preceding January 16, 1979, the United States found a reliable partner in the late Shah of Iran. His reign was characterized by robust relations with the Arab world and Israel, and tentative diplomatic outreach to the then-USSR and China. Yet, despite these promising dynamics, a critical blind spot loomed: US intelligence, including the CIA and DIA, underestimated the burgeoning tide of Islamic fundamentalism. This oversight signaled a significant shift, one that the US and its allies are still contending with decades later.

Today, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is fraught with volatility. The Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, vital arteries of global trade and politics, remain in a state of persistent unrest, rocked by Iranian-backed terrorist factions. Beyond regional instability, these terrorist groups, supported by networks like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Quds Force, actively fuel conflicts against Israel. Cloaked under the guise of “Islamic resistance,” their ultimate aim is to perpetuate the Iranian regime’s aggressive and ambitious policies, far from the ideals they publicly espouse.

The American political response to these challenges has been multifaceted yet contentious. President Joe Biden, known for his historic stances against apartheid and his elation at the fall of communism, confronts a complex dilemma in dealing with Iran’s theocratic regime. His administration’s attempts to breathe life into the seemingly moribund nuclear deal — known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — have been met with skepticism and hurdles. The JCPOA, conceived as a framework to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities in return for sanction relief, has become a pivot of international debate and a litmus test for diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

The Middle East’s quagmire transcends international diplomacy. The region is embroiled in conflicts accentuated by war, terrorism, sectarianism, and tribalism. Iran simmers with internal discontent and political undercurrents. Below the surface of its cities, waves of public dissent against the regime’s authoritarian grip are rising. Concurrently, speculation about the succession of the ailing Ali Khamenei stirs within the regime’s core. During Khamenei’s tenure, starting in 1989, the US has seen six presidents, a stark contrast that underscores the differing political trajectories of the two nations.

As the Biden administration’s term advances, a shift in US policy towards the Middle East seems improbable. The approaching 2024 election raises questions about the continuity or change in current strategies. The US intelligence community, aware of the stakes, works tirelessly to counter Iranian influence and maintain American dominance in the region through its alliances. However, the outcomes of these efforts remain shrouded in uncertainty.

Forty-five years ago, the Shah’s departure was akin to pulling a pillar of stability from a delicately balanced structure. The region plunged into a state of radicalism and unrest, a consequence still reverberating today. While the term “regime change” in Iran is politically sensitive and often avoided in Washington’s political corridors, the continuation of the current regime in Tehran poses a significant challenge to the dream of regional peace and stability.

Moreover, the Middle East’s plight is not merely a regional concern; it is a global issue necessitating a nuanced and comprehensive approach. The lessons of history, combined with present realities, must inform the strategies of the US and other global players. The region’s stability is intricately linked to global security, economic interests, and the broader quest for a peaceful international order. As such, a recalibration of policies and strategies, informed by a deep understanding of the region’s complexities, is imperative.

In this context, the role of diplomacy, intelligence, and strategic foresight becomes paramount. The US, along with its regional allies, must navigate a path that balances the pursuit of security interests with the promotion of peace and stability. This journey involves understanding the aspirations and grievances of the Middle Eastern peoples, addressing the root causes of extremism, Islamic terrorism, and fostering a climate conducive to dialogue and reconciliation.

In conclusion, the quest for stability in the Middle East, 45 years post-Shah, is a journey fraught with challenges but rich with opportunities. As the US moves forward, its policies and actions must be grounded in a clear-eyed assessment of the past, a realistic appraisal of the present, and a visionary outlook for the future. Only through such a comprehensive approach can we hope to see a Middle East that transcends the legacies of its tumultuous past and moves towards a future marked by peace, stability, and prosperity.

Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD / The newly published book of Erfan Fard is: “The Black Shabbat” (Israel, the target of terrorist), which has been published in the USA. www.erfanfard.com

The post The Middle East: 45 Years After the Shah, the US’ Crucial Role in Seeking Stability first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Candace Owens Barred From New Zealand After Facing Similar Ban From Australia for Comments on Jews, Holocaust

Right-wing political commentator Candace Owens speaks during an event held by national conservative political movement ‘Turning Point’, in Detroit, Michigan, US, June, 14, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Rebecca Cook

Right-wing American political commentator and YouTube content creator Candace Owens has been denied a visa to enter New Zealand because she was banned from the nearby country Australia, immigration officials reportedly said on Thursday.

Owens was scheduled to embark on her first speaking tour across Australia and New Zealand in February and March of next year. The tour includes a stop in Auckland, New Zealand, on Feb. 28 and tickets remain on sale online.

Australia rejected her request for a visa last month. Australian Immigration Minister Tony Burke said the decision was made because of Owens’s past remarks, including her apparent denial that Nazis forcibly did medical experiments on Jews in concentration camps during World War II.

“From downplaying the impact of the Holocaust with comments about [Nazi doctor and war criminal Josef] Mengele through to claims that Muslims started slavery, Candace Owens has the capacity to incite discord in almost every direction,” Burke said at the time. “Australia’s national interest is best served when Candace Owens is somewhere else.

Jock Gilray, a spokesperson for New Zealand’s immigration agency, said on Thursday that Owens was refused an entertainer’s work permit for New Zealand because visas legally cannot be granted to someone who have been banned from another country, The Associated Press reported on Thursday. New Zealand officials did not refer to Owens’s past comments when announcing the denial of her visa.

Owens and the Australia-based promoter behind her speaking tour, Rocksman, have yet to comment on news regarding the ban from New Zealand but said in October that they will file a legal appeal to a federal judge in response to the ban from Australia. Owens commented on Burke’s decision to deny her a visa for Australia and blamed it partially on the alleged influence of the global “Zionist media empire.”

Owens, who has over 3 million subscribers on YouTube and hosts the podcast titled “Candace,” has promoted conspiracy theories and made numerous antisemitic comments about Israel, Jews, Zionists, and the Holocaust. She has also made controversial comments against Black Lives Matter, feminism, vaccines, and immigration.

The post Candace Owens Barred From New Zealand After Facing Similar Ban From Australia for Comments on Jews, Holocaust first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Israeli Bus Attacked in West Bank, At Least Eight Injured

Israeli police officer works at the scene of a shooting attack near the Jewish settlement of Ariel, in the West Bank, Nov. 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad

A Palestinian opened fire on a Tel Aviv-bound Israeli bus near the Jewish settlement of Ariel in the West Bank on Friday, wounding at least eight people before he was killed by Israeli troops, the Israeli military said.

Israel‘s MDA medical service said four people suffered gunshot wounds, with three in a serious condition, and four others were hurt by flying glass.

The Palestinian Health Ministry identified the shooter as a 46-year-old local man. Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, said he belonged to the terrorist group.

Violence has surged across the West Bank since the start of the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza in October last year.

In the first six months of 2024, the West Bank experienced more than 500 Arab terrorist attacks each month on average, according to data made public by Hatzalah Judea and Samaria (Rescuers Without Borders).

Dozens of Israelis have been killed in Palestinian street attacks, Israeli authorities say, while hundreds of Palestinians — including armed fighters, stone-throwing youths, and civilian bystanders — have died in clashes with Israeli security forces.

The post Israeli Bus Attacked in West Bank, At Least Eight Injured first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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The Winds Are Blowing Agains the Jewish People; But the Response to Chaos and Violent Protests Could Lead to a Reversal

A Torah scroll is seen on display at the Babylonian Jewry Heritage Center in Or Yehuda, Israel, April 16, 2018. Photo: Reuters / Amir Cohen.

People are asking why we are now experiencing such a tsunami of hatred — a kind of Ma Nishtana moment. There are very different factors that have come together to create a perfect storm of conflicting world and ethical values. Old certainties have died, and new ones are flourishing, and not always for the best. One can look at this from different perspectives — the historical, the social, the religious, and the long-term instability of societies and governments.

For thousands of years, the fate and role of societies have been determined by the people who exercised power and what religion or gods they adhered to. Power rose or fell violently and unpredictably. Authorities cared little for human life. Religions were supposed to take care of morality. Winners determined the fate of humans — who was accepted and who was not, or merely tolerated. Every country was guilty at some stage of abuse, and benefited from servitude. This does not mean one cannot try to make things better.

Throughout history, rival religions competed for supremacy and Jews were always caught in the middle. Judaism found itself attacked both by religions and by secular ideologies. And many Jews themselves abandoned their religion and culture ,and joined the different and conflicting ideologies and fought for recognition and rights for everyone. We expected to be hated by the European devils of Stalin and Hitler. But we never believed we would be hated by so many Americans. By Harvards and Columbias.

The First and the Second Great Wars were watersheds. They created new global rivalries and exacerbated cultural opposites. The dream that a United Nations could bring peace has been shattered by its politics. The dove of peace is crippled, and the lion will not lie down with the lamb. As many societies have advanced technologically, and billions were raised out of poverty and servitude, people began to talk about rights instead of obligations. And different groups who felt poorly treated, began to demand respect and amelioration.

Unfortunately, like all such movements, they developed into orthodoxies that allowed for no dissent or criticism. The current curse in the West is wokeism. And in the east, it is the curse of totalitarianism.

Another important factor in a changing world is migration. In the past, people fled prejudice, wars, and oppression. Many wanted a freer life and opportunities. And they integrated into the host societies. Ease of travel and access have now meant that larger numbers are fleeing, bringing with them values directly in conflict with host societies. The Western world is being and will continue to be challenged by massive immigration because it needs more workers to fill the gaps left by declining birthrates. In itself this is not a problem. But by refusing to deal with the issue of integration, by burying heads in sands, and now by fearing to act to remove those inciting hatred, it is only stoking up more chaos for the future. In many places, the character of nations has already begun to change.

Multiculturalism, once seen as an ideal, is now becoming a problem. It has led to a choice, between cultural capitulation and an alliance of false brothers, religious fundamentalists allied with left-wing progressives to gain power despite opposing values. One day, they may overturn states from within.

Some will argue that Israel is the cause of world dysfunction. Strange that such a small people are thought to have such influence. Others argue that Israel was a mistake, and all other states that emerged from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire are legitimate. And they argue that Israel has no right to defend itself. All these are both nonsensical and evidence of prejudice. And they simply reiterate what the Bible foretold, that we are people who are alone, not appreciated by other nations (Numbers 23:9).

If the world is bent on tearing itself apart, we can only look on in despair for them. And do our best to ensure that we are well protected.

All is not lost. There are signs of a reaction. The winds that bring storms can also revive and refresh.

Florence, Italy, in the 15th century was the pinnacle of  wealth, culture, and influence. Its banking families controlled the Western world. The Franciscan monk Savonarola (1452-1498) attacked the power and the wealth of the wealthy rulers. But he went too far in destroying great art, music, and what he saw as luxury. Instead, he enforced dull pious conformity. For a while, he was successful. But people soon tired of it, and in the end, he was burnt as a heretic.  After the French Revolution came the Reign of Terror. Let us hope it won’t happen now.

The author is a writer and rabbi, based in New York.

The post The Winds Are Blowing Agains the Jewish People; But the Response to Chaos and Violent Protests Could Lead to a Reversal first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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