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Why Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable
An UNRWA aid truck at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
Heated debates over the Palestinian death toll in the Hamas-Israel war tend to focus on the fact that widely cited fatality numbers make no distinction between combatants and noncombatants. While this is true, it misses a more fundamental problem: the numbers themselves have lost any claim to validity.
In the first month of the war, the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health (MOH) in Gaza relied on its existing collection system, made up primarily of hospitals and morgues, to certify each death.
Starting in early November, however, hospitals in northern Gaza began to shut down or evacuate during the Israeli ground invasion, spurring the MOH to introduce a new, undefined methodology for counting fatalities: media reports. This methodology, which the MOH has rarely acknowledged publicly, accounts for the majority of fatalities reported over the past four months, surpassing the traditional collection system.
A comparison of the two methodologies, using MOH reports and claims published by the Hamas-controlled Government Media Office (GMO), yields wildly different and irreconcilable results, indicating that the media reports methodology is dramatically understating fatalities among adult males, the demographic most likely to be combatants. This undercuts the persistent claim that 72 percent of those killed in Gaza are women and children — a problematic claim that has worsened since it was first noted by a Washington Institute report in January.
The result is that MOH statistics do not appear to offer a reliable guide to the actual Palestinian death toll even by the “foggy” standards of normal wartime reporting. Journalists, analysts, and government officials need to be aware that the actual overall death toll may be significantly higher (or, less likely, lower) than what the MOH has reported; the demographic composition of these fatalities is certainly far different than what the MOH claims.
Building a Database
To assess this problem, the author has assembled a comprehensive collection of publicly available Gaza fatality data that includes:
Daily updates covering the period October 7 through March 21, obtained from four sources: the Hamas-run MOH in Gaza, the Hamas-run GMO, the Palestinian Authority Ministry of Health in Ramallah, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) (which simply relays Gaza MOH/GMO claims, sometimes inaccurately).
Compiled data from 13 Health Sector Emergency Reports published by the Gaza MOH between December 11 and March 18 (these documents can be accessed via the MOH Telegram channel or the Internet Archive).
Two comprehensive MOH data releases on October 26 and January 7 (the latter covering up to November 2 for all of Gaza and up to January 5 for the south).
The following analysis is based primarily on the Health Sector Emergency Reports and occasional GMO updates.
If interested, you can download a condensed version of the author’s database. (The full database with sources, methodology, and other information will be published on a future date.)
Limitations of Media Reports
The regular methodology used by the MOH (hereafter the “central collection system”) records deaths at hospitals and morgues, along with deaths reported by the Palestinian Red Crescent Society ambulance service and other unspecified sources (for a more detailed explanation of these practices, see the author’s January study). This methodology is well-understood and has been relatively accurate in the past.
Unlike in previous conflicts, however, neither OCHA nor local and international NGOs are currently conducting real-time fatality verification in Gaza or attempting to distinguish between civilians and combatants. Moreover, only a third of Gaza’s hospitals are even partially functional, and many parts of the Strip have serious access problems, curtailing the use of this methodology to count deaths outside of Rafah and Khan Yunis governorates.
On November 10, the MOH announced that it could no longer report deaths from two northern governorates; a month later, officials acknowledged that they were relying on what they called “reliable media sources” to report deaths in those areas. In reality, they had begun using this methodology as early as November 3, according to the MOH dataset released on January 7.
To be sure, it is not uncommon to use news reports when attempting to count deaths in chaotic battlespaces with access issues and damaged institutions. Yet this practice is notoriously difficult and typically looks backward rather than attempting a real-time count. The reliability of any such effort is greatly dependent on its methodological details, but the MOH has refused to elaborate on how it collects this data, which is a major problem given that media reports have become the dominant input in the Gaza death toll, accounting for more than 14,000 reported fatalities.
Comparing the Methodologies
Despite known problems with the MOH central collection system (outlined in more detail in the January study), it is the more reliable methodology because it involves identity verification and counting of actual bodies.
Media reports, by contrast, are much more difficult to verify, regularly lack details necessary to determine the identities or disposition of those killed, and may double-count or miss many fatalities. The divergence between the two methodologies is perhaps best shown by how differently they have reported demographic details about Gaza deaths.
For instance, the MOH Health Sector Emergency Reports provide separate data on men, women, and children when their deaths are recorded through the central collection system, but only a single aggregated figure for deaths gleaned from media reports. When these reports coincide with the GMO’s periodic reports (which provide demographic breakdowns), one can compare how they treat fatalities among different demographic groups.
This comparison reveals sharp differences — most notably, a sixfold decrease in adult male fatalities recorded from media reports and a fourfold increase in child fatalities. (For reference, children make up roughly 50% of Gaza’s population, and men and women make up a quarter each.)
Some of these differences may be explained by the fact that media reports are unlikely to capture combatant deaths accurately due to access issues and fear of retribution for exposing Hamas losses. In most cases, however, the numbers are too far apart to be reconcilable, or too divorced from the realities on the ground to be credible.
For example, according to the media reports methodology, only 1,192 men had been killed in northern and central Gaza as of March 18, despite four and a half months of heavy ground fighting (see the author’s condensed database). Five days later, that number inexplicably decreased to 1,170 — a feat that would have required 22 men to somehow come back to life by March 23 in order to reconcile the central collection system data with the overall claim. In contrast, Israeli authorities estimate that 13,000 militants have been killed — a figure that may incorporate many combatant deaths not recorded by either MOH methodology.
Without clarification from the MOH, such findings suggest significant omission or manipulation aimed at understating the number of men killed and overstating the number of children killed. One possibility is that fatalities among militants — most of whom are men — are more likely to go unreported because they occur in tunnels or on battlefields, where most reporters are either unable to access bodies or unwilling to risk Hamas retribution or the dangers of combat zones. Another possibility is active manipulation — that is, using the media reports methodology as a smokescreen for altering the data in support of the claim that 72% of those killed are women and children.
Meanwhile, data from the central collection system indicates a sharp decrease in overall deaths since November and a sustained increase in the proportion of men killed.
In addition to the MOH’s growing reliance on the media reports methodology, these trends may reflect various factors on the ground, such as Israel’s shift from a primarily air-based campaign to ground fighting, the mass evacuation of civilians from the north to Rafah governorate, and the decreasing intensity of fighting in areas where the central collection system is still functioning. Such factors would be expected to reduce overall civilian casualties and therefore increase the proportion of adult men killed, since that is the demographic most likely to serve as combatants.
Caveats and Recommendations
This analysis is solely intended to compare various Hamas fatality claims against each other and raise questions about the resultant discrepancies. It makes no claims about the true death toll in Gaza or the civilian-combatant ratio, nor is it meant to distract from the very real and widespread loss of life in Gaza and the severe humanitarian crisis that its population continues to suffer.
Regarding the over-representation of men in the fatality statistics, this point is not intended to imply that all Gazan men are militants. Rather, adult men are the most likely to be militants across any group (though Hamas is known to use children in combat and support roles). Their overrepresentation has also been used to help estimate militant deaths in the past.
Caveats aside, the above findings should prompt analysts, media outlets, and government officials to bear the following points in mind when assessing Gaza fatality statistics:
The discrepancies between the methodologies for counting fatalities warrant much more intense scrutiny and should be paired with appropriate caveats if cited. Whether through passive omission, active manipulation, or both, the Gaza Health Ministry’s media reports methodology significantly understates the number of men killed and may overstate the number of children killed.
The repeated claim that 72% of the dead are women and children is very likely incorrect. Data from the central collection system indicates that 58% of those killed since the start of the war are women and children; this figure drops to 48% for those killed since November 3. For the 72% claim to be accurate, women and children would have to make up about 90% of deaths recorded from media reports. This proportion is implausible — men comprise a quarter of the population, and these fatalities have largely occurred in areas with fewer civilians and more combatants, most of whom are adult men.
Data from both methodologies suggests that the war has decreased in intensity. Fatalities have declined from an average of 348 per day in the first weeks of the war to around 85 per day in March.
The existing data is too limited to allow for definitive conclusions about the true death toll or the civilian-combatant ratio. A high proportion of reported deaths come from an unknown methodology that may be misrepresenting the data, while enormous uncertainty persists regarding how many combatant fatalities go uncounted in tunnels and other battlespaces. The exact proportions of men, women, and children killed are even more unclear. The available data does not allow for reliable estimates about the ratio of civilians to combatants killed either, whether independently or by comparison with Israeli estimates.
Gabriel Epstein is a Research Assistant at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where this article was originally published.
The post Why Gaza Fatality Data Has Become Completely Unreliable first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Jewish leaders welcome Canada’s decision to convene a second national antisemitism forum
Just one day after Israel’s president Isaac Herzog called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to take “firm and decisive action” to combat the “intolerable wave of antisemitic attacks against the Canadian Jewish community”, the federal government announced on Dec. 20 it is convening a national forum on combating antisemitism.
Details are scarce, but the forum will take place in Ottawa in February 2025, under the direction of the justice department and the department of public safety. Political leaders from all three levels of government will be invited to discuss how to better coordinate the justice system and law enforcement and focus specifically on “the growing public safety threat of antisemitism,” according to a media release from the Department of Justice on Dec. 20.
“Canada has seen a troubling rise in antisemitic incidents, threats, and hate crimes,” the release stated. “The Government of Canada recognizes the urgent need for national leadership to ensure Jewish Canadians feel safe in their synagogues, schools, and communities.”
This announcement comes at the end of a turbulent week that saw Congregation Beth Tikvah Ahavat Shalom Nusach Hoari, west of Montreal, firebombed overnight on Dec. 18. It marked the second time since Oct. 7, 2023, that the Dollard-des-Ormeaux shul and adjacent Jewish school were targeted, as well as the West Island office of Montreal’s Federation CJA.
Then, on Dec. 20, in Toronto, the Bais Chaya Mushka girls’ school was attacked by unknown gunmen who opened fire at 2:30 a.m. into the front of the building. It was the third time this year that the school has come under fire. No one was injured in either incident.
Jewish leaders have been pressing Ottawa to do more than issue sympathetic statements condemning antisemitism. They want to address meaningful gaps in policing across jurisdictions, and to press police to better enforce existing laws. In 2023, there were 900 hate crimes against Jews reported to Canadian police; Jews were the target of 70 percent of all religion-motivated hate crimes.
However, many community leaders point out that there have been few prosecutions, and are decrying that many of the charges eventually get dropped. Weekly antisemitic and anti-Israel street protests continue in many Canadian cities. Canadian and U.S. federal authorities have recently foiled several terrorist plots involving suspects who were charged with planning attacks on Jews in Ottawa, New York and Richmond Hill, Ont.
Second antisemitism summit since 2021
The February forum is being convened less than three years after the first antisemitism summit was held in July 2021, in the wake of the brief Hamas-Israel war earlier that year. Canada’s first special envoy on antisemitism, Irwin Cotler, helped steer that day-long event, which was held virtually due to the COVID pandemic. The guest list was restricted at first to Liberal ministers and lawmakers.
Following that first summit, the Canadian heritage ministry promised a series of actions to combat antisemitism, and, as The CJN has reported, some of these have come into being:
- Boosting financial help for Jewish communities in the government’s next anti-racism action plan, which was launched earlier this year
- Adjustment of the Security Infrastructure Program, announced this year, to help Jewish places of worship, camps, schools and offices more easily afford to hire security guards, and fortify their security equipment
- Introduced an online hate bill, aimed at tackling hate speech on social media. It has not been adopted yet, due to concerns about infringement on free speech
- More money and staff for the work of the office of the special envoy to preserve Holocaust remembrance and combat antisemitism, including a new handbook on antisemitism, issued Oct. 31
- Funding to revamp the national Holocaust monument signage in Ottawa
- Hearings into antisemitism held on Parliament Hill, specifically looking at campus antisemitism
However, it has been more than a year since domestic antisemitism exploded in the wake of Oct. 7. The violence has cost the lives of more than 800 Israeli soldiers and thousands of Palestinians, including Hamas terrorists, in Gaza.
As of now, it appears that a Jewish Liberal MP from Montreal could play a key role in the summit. Rachel Bendayan, a lawyer who has represented the riding of Outremont since 2019, was named to the federal cabinet on Dec. 20. Aside from her new duties as minister of official languages, Bendayan was named associate minister of public safety.
While Bendayan’s office did not reply to The CJN by publication time, she said she was “honoured and humbled to be sworn in as Minister of Official Languages and Associate Minister of Public Safety,” in a post on social media. “Grateful to share this moment with my family. Ready to get to work.”
Her colleague Anthony Housefather took it as an important signal that Bendayan’s nomination came on the same day as the antisemitism forum announcement.
In July, Housefather, who has since repeatedly called for the Prime Minister to resign, was named special advisor to Trudeau on matters concerning the Jewish community and antisemitism. Housefather has been lobbying for this new summit, behind the scenes and publicly, for months.
“I will work very hard at this forum to push for immediate action and solutions across the levels of government and am gratified that my friend and colleague Rachel Bendayan is the new Associate Minister of Public Safety as her position will allow the Jewish community voice to be even more prominent in giving priority to the issue of anti-Jewish hate,” Housefather said in a statement to The CJN.
Housefather and the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs have been working with Special Envoy Deborah Lyons to get this new summit approved. As The CJN reported on Dec. 11, calls for the summit were growing louder in recent weeks.
However, according to Richard Marceau, a CIJA vice-president, a summit of words was meaningless unless such a forum focused specifically on policing, law enforcement and prosecutions.
“The forum’s ultimate value will be determined only by the concrete results that come from it,” said Marceau, adding that the values of all Canadians are at stake, not just for Jewish Canadians.
“Police need more resources and specialized training. Laws need to be enforced, charges need to be laid, and perpetrators must be fully prosecuted to end the domination of our streets by extremists,” he said. “And the glorification of terrorism must finally be made a criminal offence in this country. Through the Forum, we will push for these and other concrete measures—but what we won’t accept are photo ops and platitudes. Action to protect our community and all Canadians is long overdue.”
Ahead of Friday’s summit announcement, the other Canadian Jewish member of the federal cabinet, Ya’ara Saks, the minister of mental health and addictions, stood in solidarity outside the site of the Bais Chaya Mushka school in North York after it was shot at.
Saks told a media conference that no Jewish girl, including her own daughters, should have to wake up every morning and ask whether it is safe to go to school—although she didn’t give away any hints that such a summit announcement was imminent.
“The community has been very clear in what needs to be done,” Saks said. “We need all hands on deck, all heads coming together to navigate forward collectively, collaboratively and with one unified voice to ensure that the Jewish community stays safe.
“I am hopeful that we will all get together and do the right thing on behalf of the Jewish community.”
While full details of the new summit have not been released, its fate could be in jeopardy even before it begins.
Although Bendayan and the other cabinet ministers were sworn in officially on Friday, it is unclear how long the Liberal government will remain in power. Efforts are underway by the Opposition Conservatives and New Democrats to topple the government soon, either through a non-confidence motion when Parliament reconvenes on Jan. 27 or sooner. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is asking the governor general to force Parliament to come back before sooner than Jan. 27.
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UN Extends Peacekeeping Mission Between Syria and Golan Heights
Fences are seen on the ceasefire line between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights, March 25, 2019. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
The United Nations Security Council on Friday extended a long-running peacekeeping mission between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights for six months and expressed concern that military activities in the area could escalate tensions.
Since a lightning rebel offensive ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier this month, Israeli troops have moved into the demilitarised zone – created after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war – that is patrolled by the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).
Israeli officials have described the move as a limited and temporary measure to ensure the security of Israel‘s borders but have given no indication of when the troops might be withdrawn.
In the resolution adopted on Friday, the Security Council stressed “that both parties must abide by the terms of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic and scrupulously observe the ceasefire.”
It expressed concern that “the ongoing military activities conducted by any actor in the area of separation continue to have the potential to escalate tensions between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic, jeopardize the ceasefire between the two countries, and pose a risk to the local civilian population and United Nations personnel on the ground.”
Armed forces from Israel and Syria are not allowed in the demilitarized zone – a 400-square-km (155-square-mile) “Area of Separation” – under the ceasefire arrangement.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday: “Let me be clear: There should be no military forces in the area of separation other than U.N. peacekeepers – period.” He also said Israeli airstrikes on Syria were violations of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and “must stop.”
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Shots fired at Bais Chaya Mushka girls school for the third time this year
Bais Chaya Mushka, an elementary girls’ school in Toronto, was shot at early in the morning on Dec. 20, the third time the school has been targeted in the past seven months.
Shots were fired at the school in May and then again in October, on Yom Kippur.
Officers from Toronto Police Service’s 32 Division responded to reports of gunfire to discover six bullet holes in the building’s exterior. No one was inside the school at the time and no injuries were reported.
“It’s incredibly unfortunate that I stand here to discuss yet another shooting at this school,” Supt. Paul MacIntyre of the Organized Crime Enforcement Unit said during a press conference outside the school Friday morning.
Police have made progress in previous incidents at the school, MacIntyre said, stating that two people, a man and a youth, were arrested in connection with the October shooting, and a firearm was recovered. Investigators are now working to determine whether the latest attack is connected to those earlier cases.
“We’ve solved the second case, and the same teams are now working on this investigation,” he said. “With just a few days before Hanukkah, we know how deeply disturbing this is to the Jewish community. We will leave no stone unturned.”
Insp. Roger Desrochers of the Hate Crime Unit said hate crimes require “careful investigation” to determine whether they meet the threshold for charges under the Criminal Code.
“These matters are challenging. Not all offensive actions meet the threshold for criminal charges, and each case must be weighed carefully,” Desrochers said during the presser on Friday afternoon.
Rabbi Yaakov Vidal, principal of the school, said it was challenging to inform parents about the third shooting this year.
“It’s very, very difficult. It’s very, very hard to be woken up in the middle of the night with such news—and it’s now the third time,” Rabbi Vidal said at a press conference outside the school.
“We were not sure if we were able to have school here, due to the police investigation, then we were told it was possible to have school here. I was actually looking for a different location… Parents are very, very frustrated, very afraid to send their kids to school. I am aware of a few that did not send their kids to school today. We hope they once again feel safe to do so every single day, as they deserve.
The school had full-time security during the day when students were present, but overnight security was too expensive, Rabbi Vidal said. “We may have to do this at this point. We’ll have to see what our next step is.”
The recent violence has raised questions about police efforts to protect Jewish institutions. MacIntyre said police have ramped up patrols in recent months under initiatives like Project Resolute but emphasized that officers are also working to balance broader community safety concerns.
When asked whether Jewish institutions should consider armed private security, MacIntyre said he does not support the idea, adding, “We are here to support the community and will continue providing all available resources to ensure their safety.”
Parents picking up their daughters at school expressed both their concern and their determination as the school dealt with a third shooting.
One mother was on the verge of tears as she discussed her decision to send her child to school this morning.
“I don’t even know what to think anymore. It’s the third time. The cops are here, so I feel safe today, but the rest of the time I don’t feel safe,” she said. “These are little girls they’re trying to scare. These idiots should be thrown in jail, but they can’t seem to catch them.”
Her daughter, who suffers from anxiety now, made a grim joke about how easy it is to attack her school, the mother said. “This is my eight year old thinking this. She doesn’t watch violent things.”
Rabbi Yosef Hecht, a Chabad rabbi in Aurora, said he dropped off his two daughters at school this morning “with a very heavy heart,” especially since it was the third shooting.
“Did they catch the people? Do they know who’s behind this? Is it larger than what they are really telling us, is there something larger that we’re not aware of yet?” he asked.
But despite his concerns, he didn’t hesitate to send his children to school. “I felt the school did a good job repairing it temporarily. It shows that, no matter what, we are going to be resolute, strong, and this will just make us stronger and more proud.”
Local leaders call for action
At a press conference earlier in the day, politicians and leaders of the Jewish community were on hand to condemn the shooting and press all levels of government for more action.
The shooting came two days after a Montreal synagogue was firebombed for the second time since Oct. 7, 2023, the date of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel and the start of the war in Gaza.
“There are common-sense things that our leaders can do to deal with this problem right away. We need funding for police to get the job done and we need to put a stop to the extremism in our streets that’s inciting this violence. The time for our leaders to speak, to tweet, is over. Now it’s time for them to take action,” said Noah Shack, interim president of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs.
“The fact is, this isn’t an isolated activity, whether it’s a synagogue being firebombed in Montreal or this school here that continues to suffer from gunfire in an effort to intimidate the girls that are here. There should be no daylight between the mayor of this city, the police of this city and the community that is facing this kind of threat day in and day out,” Shack said.
City councillor James Pasternak said Toronto police are stretched thin and need support from provincial police forces and the RCMP, and called for closer ties between elected officials and police forces.
“The police act forbids elected officials from directing police operations but the police act doesn’t stop us from nuance. We have to back up our police services, give them the political will to stop these roving mobs… that are inciting some of the violence that we are seeing in this neighbourhood and across the land,” he said.
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow, who said in a statement that the shooting was “unacceptable,” was criticized by some Jewish community leaders for her weak stance on the antisemitism that has escalated in the city.
“Mayor Olivia Chow’s continued platitudes in response to antisemitic hate in Toronto ring hollow in the face of her permissive approach to this growing problem,” B’nai Brith Canada stated on social media.
“She has enabled an environment where such acts are allowed to flourish. Banal condemnations without concrete actions leave the Jewish community vulnerable and unsafe.”
Enough is enough. Antisemitism and antisemitic attacks have no place in Toronto.
The latest shooting at the Bais Chaya Mushka Elementary School is unacceptable. Once again students, families, and neighbours are waking up to safety concerns.
My office has been in contact with…
— Mayor Olivia Chow (@MayorOliviaChow) December 20, 2024
Michael Levitt, a former Liberal MP and now the president of the Friends of Simon Wiesenthal Center, who attended the press conference, also laid responsibility on Chow.
“We have not seen the mayor of the city draw a line through this type of activity and come out and be strong enough,” he said. “Sure, when shots are fired, but what about when all the other incidents have gone on? We need our mayor take a stand with the Jewish community and make it clear that keeping the Jewish community safe is a priority.”
MP Ya’ara Saks appeared at the press conference to expressed her support for the Jewish community. She pushed back on the suggestion that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had not taken the issue seriously enough, pointing to increased funding for federal infrastructure grants, which can now be used for a wider variety of security resources.
This afternoon, the federal government also announced that a second national summit on antisemitism would be convened in February.
The post Shots fired at Bais Chaya Mushka girls school for the third time this year appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.
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