Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh spent the final hours before his assassination in a Tehran safehouse that belongs to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Haniyeh’s death in the Iranian capital underscores the depth of the relationship between Hamas and the clerical regime, whose funding, training, and equipment have proven indispensable to the Gaza terror group.

Nevertheless, the White House continues to focus on reducing tensions and negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas without addressing Tehran’s role in directing its network of proxies to attack Israel on multiple fronts.

Haniyeh died the night of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration, attended by leaders representing the main proxies that comprise the Tehran regime’s “Axis of Resistance.” This included Hamas’ Haniyeh, the head of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Ziyad al-Nakhalah, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary General Naim Qassem, and Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam from Yemen.

These men are all regular visitors to Tehran, and Iran does not hide its association with terrorist leaders, or its celebration of their efforts.

Masoud Pezeshkian may be a reformist compared to the ultra-hardliners within the clerical regime, but his election in no way signals a rejection of Tehran’s efforts to spread its revolutionary Islamist doctrine and eliminate the Jewish State.

Following Haniyeh’s death, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, declared it the regime’s duty to “take revenge.”

“The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our home, but it also prepared a harsh punishment for itself,” Khamenei said on his website.

The IRGC echoed Khamenei’s remarks, and claimed to have launched an investigation into the security breach that led to the assassination. The Houthis also vowed to take revenge in cooperation with the Axis of Resistance, hinting at a potential coordinated attack against Israel.

A major decision facing Tehran is whether to retaliate directly from its own soil, or rely on its proxies — which would reduce the odds of an Israeli counterstrike inside Iran’s borders.

The Islamic Republic has directly targeted Israel from its own territory only once, after an Israeli airstrike on Damascus this April killed top IRGC leaders responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon. The Iranian regime launched approximately 331 projectiles toward Israel, including 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles, and 110 surface-to-surface missiles. While most were fired from Iran, some originated in Iraq and Yemen.

Israel, the US, Jordan, and reportedly Saudi Arabia intercepted many of these projectiles, with Israeli officials reporting no casualties.

Tehran’s support for Hamas dates back to the 1980s. Throughout the years, Iran has provided the terrorist group with hundreds of millions of dollars, as well as training, weapons, and rockets. According to the US State Department, Iran provides about $100 million annually to Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas. By 2023, Israeli estimates were even higher, claiming Iran had increased its funding for Hamas to $350 million a year.

Hamas and Islamic Republic leaders frequently convene in Tehran, Damascus, and Beirut. In addition to Iran’s alleged role in orchestrating the October 7 massacre of 1,200 Israelis, since that day Iranian-backed militias across the region have been attacking Israel on multiple fronts under the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

On the northern front, Hezbollah has frequently launched missiles at Israeli territory and also deployed drones for surveillance and attacks. A recent Hezbollah rocket attack killed 12 children playing in a soccer field in northern Israel, marking the highest civilian death toll since October 7 and raising fears among US and European diplomats of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel.

The Houthis joined these efforts by launching missiles and UAVs at Israel, with one drone striking Tel Aviv after traveling roughly 1,730 miles from Sana’a. In Iraq, Iranian-backed militias, known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, claimed to have attacked a vital Israeli target in the Port of Eilat with several drones, stating they were supporting Hamas in Gaza.

US pressure for a ceasefire in the absence of any real measures to address Tehran and its proxies has been a prime policy objective, whereas this approach fails to offer a plan for preventing future Hamas violence if the group remains intact.

A day after Haniyeh’s death in Tehran, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said reaching a ceasefire in Gaza “is the enduring imperative,” without addressing the Islamic Republic’s evident role in the process. Similarly, Vice President Kamala Harris pressured Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to finalize a ceasefire deal during his trip to D.C., while also suggesting that Israel has the right to defend itself — but without mentioning the threats posed by Iran-backed groups other than Hamas.

These pushes for de-escalation between Hamas and Israel do not take into account other proxies that also target Israel, as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias could ramp up their attacks at Tehran’s behest. As pressure mounts from the US and the international community to reach a ceasefire, it is crucial to consider Iran’s role in ensuring the success or failure of an enduring agreement.

The Gaza conflict is but one front of a larger conflict involving various Iranian proxies. Any approach towards de-escalation must encompass the threats posed by other militia groups that are not bound by a Hamas ceasefire, and operate under Iran’s influence.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies focused on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence. 

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