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Reduction of US Presence in Iraq Likely to Embolden Iranian Axis, ISIS
Military vehicles of US soldiers are seen at Ain al-Asad air base in Anbar province, Iraq, Jan. 13, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/John Davison
JNS.org – The United States and Iraq have been engaged in talks aimed at transitioning the U.S.-led international military coalition in Iraq into a bilateral partnership, a process that has been delayed due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
These discussions will determine the future of U.S. military presence in Iraq, a country that Iran intends to take over with the help of its Shi’ite-backed militias, and which remains a critical battleground in the fight against Islamic State.
American officials have reiterated that U.S. military personnel are in Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government as part of “Operation Inherent Resolve” to advise, assist and enable the Iraqi security forces in their ongoing fight against ISIS. However, signs are growing that the Biden administration—as well as potentially any administration that follows it—would seek to either draw down or entirely remove the American military footprint in the country, with consequences for the entire region.
The United States currently maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq. Additionally, around 900 U.S. personnel are stationed in neighboring Syria, where they continue to play a critical role in counterterrorism operations.
Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and a former national security advisor to members of the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, cautioned against repeating the mistakes of the past in both Iraq and Afghanistan, which enabled radical jihadist forces to fill vacuums.
“The primary reason the U.S. military is in Iraq is to prevent a return of the ISIS caliphate,” said Bowman, who was an active-duty U.S. Army officer, Black Hawk pilot and assistant professor at West Point. “Let’s hope this administration does not force us to endure a sequel of the tragic movie we’ve seen before—a premature U.S. military withdrawal that ignores the advice of commanders and neglects conditions on the ground,” he told JNS.
Bowman drew parallels to the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 and Afghanistan in 2021, both of which, he argued, led to significant security setbacks. “That misguided decision to withdraw from Iraq in 2011 catalyzed a series of events that resulted in the ISIS caliphate, eventually forcing the U.S. military to return later to Iraq at a higher cost,” he said.
He noted that the Biden administration risks making the same mistake by withdrawing troops without fully considering the consequences. “In both cases, in Iraq and Afghanistan, we saw a predictable and forewarned disaster,” he added.
The prospect of a U.S. military drawdown in or withdrawal from Iraq has also raised concerns about Iran’s influence.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran wants the U.S. military out of the way,” Bowman stated. He explained that the U.S. presence in Iraq acts as a significant impediment to Tehran’s strategic objectives, which include exerting greater control over Baghdad and using supply lines to arm its proxies in next-door Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon. “Iran would like to make Iraq like Lebanon, where Tehran uses its terror proxy to undermine national sovereignty and control government decisions,” he explained.
“If you think about it from a Sunni Iraqi perspective—if you have a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, what is that going to do? That is going to make you fearful that you have an Iranian takeover in Baghdad. Shi’ites aligned with Iran are going to be perceived as ascendant, and that’s going to make some Sunnis more susceptible to ISIS radicalization and recruitment. So, the obvious consequence, the predictable consequence, of a U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq is more effective ISIS radicalization and recruitment of Sunnis,” Bowman warned.
He pointed to a July 16, 2024, release by U.S. Central Command that warned that “ISIS is on pace to more than double the total number of attacks they claimed in 2023.” The U.S. combatant command responsible for the Middle East said, “The increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability.”
“To make matters worse, if there is a credible perception that the prospective U.S. military withdrawal is in response to the more than 170 attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since mid-October, then the take-home lesson for Iran and its terror proxies is that aggression against Americans pays,” added Bowman. “That will invite more attacks on Americans.”
Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations at Bar-Ilan University and a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, echoed similar concerns regarding a potential U.S. withdrawal.
“The Iranians and their media outlets are pushing for a complete U.S. withdrawal,” he said. He also warned that a reduction in U.S. forces could lead to increased ISIS activity and further destabilize the region.
“It’s clear that if the United States pulls out, ISIS attacks will intensify,” he said, noting that U.S. forces are being targeted by radical Shi’ite Iranian-backed militias while they remain in Iraq to combat Sunni ISIS.
On Aug. 13, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said that eight U.S. service members had been treated for traumatic brain injury and smoke inhalation following an Aug. 9 drone attack on the Rumalyn Landing Zone base in Syria, adding that an Iran-backed militia had launched the attack.
Gilboa also highlighted the strategic significance of the U.S. presence in Iraq, particularly in relation to Israel and other U.S. allies in the region. “Any move that strengthens Iran and its proxies harms Israel’s national security,” he stated.
Gilboa warned that if the U.S. withdraws, Iraq could become a failed state similar to Lebanon and Yemen, where Iranian-backed militias exert significant influence. “The American presence is a buffer that helps prevent the full takeover of Iraq by Iranian forces,” he explained.
Gilboa questioned whether planners in Washington were thinking about the long-term consequences of such an action.
He assessed that Washington could be keen to pull out of Iraq no matter who wins the next presidential elections in November, adding, “If Kamala Harris wins, she will not continue the Biden policies. Trump, for his part, has said that he will continue his actions from his first term, but that’s also unlikely. People change, and both could be susceptible to isolationist influences.”
As the future of the American footprint in Iraq appears uncertain, the stakes are high.
The potential for a U.S. withdrawal raises concerns that go beyond the resurgence of ISIS, and which touch on increased Iranian influence and effects on U.S. allies—including Jordan, which Iran has attempted to infiltrate, destabilize and use as an arms conduit via Iraq to the east.
The post Reduction of US Presence in Iraq Likely to Embolden Iranian Axis, ISIS first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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French Police Arrest Man Suspected of Attempted Arson Against Synagogue
French police stand guard after cars were set on fire in front of the city’s synagogue, in La Grande-Motte, France, August 24, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Manon Cruz
French police have arrested a man suspected of trying to set a synagogue ablaze in the southern French city of la Grande-Motte on Saturday, Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said.
About 200 police officers had been hunting for the suspect, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said earlier, adding that the attacker had set fire to several entry doors to the synagogue and several cars nearby.
BFM TV said the suspect was a 33-year-old Algerian. Local police declined to give details.
The anti-terrorism prosecutor’s office, which was put in charge of the investigation, said early on Sunday that a suspect had been arrested in Nîmes on Saturday evening.
“Before the police could intervene, (the suspect) opened fire on the (police), which returned fire. The man was wounded in the face,” the office said in a statement, adding that two other people were taken into custody.
A policeman was slightly injured when a gas bottle exploded as police secured the site of the attack on Saturday morning, Attal said.
“This is an antisemitic attack. Once more, our Jewish compatriots are targeted,” Attal said on X. “In the face of antisemitism, in the face of violence, we will never allow ourselves to be intimidated.”
After visiting the synagogue, Attal said an “absolute tragedy” had been narrowly averted after firefighters and police arrived quickly at the scene.
Local media reported earlier that the suspect had set fire to two cars, one of which contained at least one gas bottle, in the synagogue’s parking area at about 8:30 a.m. (0630 GMT).
Police protection of synagogues, and Jewish schools and shops would be stepped up across France, the government said.
France, like other countries in Europe, has seen a surge in antisemitic incidents following the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 and Israel’s retaliatory action in Gaza.
Le Parisien, franceinfo and other media said the suspect had been seen on CCTV shortly before the attack with a Palestinian flag tied round his waist.
“Exploding a gas bottle in a car in front of the Grande Motte synagogue at the expected time of arrival of the faithful: it’s not just attacking a place of worship, it’s an attempt to kill Jews,” Yonathan Arfi, who leads the CRIF, an umbrella organization of French Jewish groups, said on X.
La Grande-Motte is a port and resort city on the French Mediterranean coast.
The post French Police Arrest Man Suspected of Attempted Arson Against Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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‘First Phase’ of Attack Against Israel is ‘Over,’ Hezbollah Declares, Amid Fears of Regional War
Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addresses his supporters through a screen during a rally commemorating the annual Hezbollah Martyrs’ Day, in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Photo: Reuters/Aziz Taher
i24 News – A Hezbollah official said on Sunday that the jihadist group does not wish that its rocket and drone attack against Israel early in the morning should trigger a regional war and, as far as it is concerned, the “first phase” of the attack is over.
The official said the group took time to retaliate for the assassination of top commander Fuad Shukr last month due to “political considerations,” chiefly the ongoing talks on a ceasefire and hostage release deal for the Gaza Strip.
The terrorist did not elaborate as to why the group decided to launch its attack despite the still-ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
The official stressed the Shiite militia had “worked” to make sure its response to the July 30 assassination would not trigger a full-scale war.
Hezbollah launched over 320 rockets & drones at Israel, responding to the killing of terrorist Fuad Shukr
But before the strike, the IDF preemptively hit thousands of rocket launchers in Lebanon
Here is everything you need to know, including the latest safety instructions: pic.twitter.com/FyHik3aeIz
— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) August 25, 2024
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Syrian President Says Efforts to Restore Ties with Turkey Have Yielded No Results
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad speaks to the Syrian parliament in Damascus, Syria August 25, 2024. Photo: SANA/Handout via REUTERS
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Sunday that efforts to mend ties with Turkey had so far brought no tangible results.
“The initiatives did not yield any results worth mentioning despite the seriousness and genuine keenness of mediators,” Assad said in a speech to the Syrian parliament, referring to conciliation efforts by Russia, Iran and Iraq.
Turkey severed ties with Syria in 2011 after the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, in which it supported rebels seeking to oust Assad. Assad views the rebels as terrorists.
“The solution is openness,” Assad said. “Restoring a relationship requires first removing the causes that led to its destruction.”
The Syrian president made clear that while he wants Turkish troops to withdraw from Syria, that was not a precondition for talks.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier in July he would extend an invitation to Assad “any time” for possible talks to restore relations.
A Turkish newspaper earlier reported Erdogan and Assad could meet in August, but a Turkish diplomat denied the report.
Russia has been trying to facilitate a meeting between the two leaders in an effort to restore ties. Iraq also said in July that it may seek to try to bring the two leaders together.
The post Syrian President Says Efforts to Restore Ties with Turkey Have Yielded No Results first appeared on Algemeiner.com.