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The Truth About Israel’s Operation in Lebanon — and What Comes Next
A person mourns as he embraces the picture of his loved one killed at a soccer pitch by a rocket Israel says was fired from Lebanon, in Majdal Shams, a Druze village in the Golan Heights, July 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
In a dramatic preemptive strike, the IDF flew into Lebanon just before dawn on Sunday and destroyed a massive Hezbollah missile and drone force just minutes before it left the ground. So far, news in English has been at best incomplete and at worst outright misleading. It’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. Below is a detailed account, analysis, and predictions for the coming days, based on the best information available at this time.
Hezbollah’s attack, which was reportedly intended to launch at 5:00 AM, included thousands of rockets, missiles and drones: among them several dozen long range guided missiles aimed at the “Gush Dan” area of central Israel, which includes Tel Aviv and Ben Gurion Airport. Yet at 4:40 AM, just minutes before the intended strike, some hundred Israeli fighter jets and an unknown number of helicopters flew multiple sorties deep into Lebanon, destroying nearly all the projectiles before they left the ground. A relatively small number of rockets hit parts of northern Israel: Hezbollah claims it succeeded in firing 320 projectiles and “successfully” completed the “first phase” of its revenge for Israel’s assasination of Hezbollah military chef Fuad Shuk in Beirut last month.
Despite Hezbollah’s claims of victory, the IDF has demonstrated two dramatic capabilities: the first is strong intelligence. Israel not only identified the intended strike before it occurred, but also pinpointed the exact location of individual rocket and drone launchers on the ground. The second capability is the Israeli Air Force (IAF)’s effectiveness: flying into Lebanon as if Hezbollah’s air defenses simply did not exist at all, carrying out a huge operation in multiple sorties, and then returning home with reportedly no IDF casualties, injuries, or equipment damage.
So far there has been no unusually large call-up of reserves, indicating that Israel is not likely proceeding toward a ground campaign at this time. Yet many Israelis believe an all out war in Lebanon to be inevitable and perhaps even desirable: with the entire north of Israel uninhabitable under an unending barrage of Hezbollah rockets, some 60,000 Israelis living for almost a year as “internally displaced persons” (effectively refugees in their own country), and Hezbollah’s range of destruction constantly expanding. Logically there are only two possible outcomes: a political solution, or a full scale war.
Hezbollah, which answers to Iran, has made it clear that the terror group will not agree to any negotiated solution until after Hamas agrees to a permanent ceasefire with Israel in Gaza. Yet recent events (including a round of fresh refusals just in recent days) indicate that Hamas is not likely to agree to any offer in the near future. This eliminates a political solution, leaving only the military option.
The military option in Lebanon will not be some kind of “Gaza Part II” but far more destructive. In a single day, Hezbollah can fire more rockets than Hamas did in an entire month, enough to overwhelm the Iron Dome missile defense system. An estimated 10% of Hezbollah’s arsenal is high yield, long range, precision missiles — capable of taking out electricity, communications, water, roads (that transport food), and, of course, large numbers of Israeli civilians. Israel had the luxury of warning Gaza’s civilians to evacuate before striking rocket launchers in civilian areas, leading to the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio for a conflict of this type in human history. Without the protection of Iron Dome, that kind of restraint will not be an option in Lebanon, where every moment of delay could mean the death of thousands of Israelis. Yet Hezbollah hides its munitions under densely populated civilian areas, such as Beirut, meaning that casualties could be far higher than in Gaza, and the Israeli home front will face a much greater burden than it has over the past 11 months.
Despite the high tensions, it does not seem likely that recent events will escalate into a regional conflict or a world war. Iran has demonstrated time and again that it will freely endanger its proxy states and their civilian populations, but will not risk its home front unless attacked directly. For example, Iran’s attack on Israel last April came in the wake of an Israeli strike on elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders in Syria, and not in response to Israeli operations in Gaza or Lebanon. Russia and China have consistently confined themselves to “behind the scenes” support roles, and are equally unlikely to take direct military action for Hezbollah’s benefit. Finally, the United States has a massive force in the region, including missile defense and attack capabilities. Although America has been notoriously shy about taking offensive actions, even in response to recent Iranian strikes that killed US troops, America’s defensive capabilities have nonetheless proved impressive, and even its aversion to offense could change at any time.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to note that even though Israelis are using the words, “preemptive strike,” Israel did not start nor escalate these hostilities. To the contrary, Israel has demonstrated astounding restraint, as it has been under relentless attack for 11 months, and has acted only responsively. If it were not for Israel’s Sunday operation in Lebanon, it is likely that hundreds or even thousands of Israelis could have died.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students
Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad
Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.
The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.
Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.
A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.
The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.
The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.
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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.
Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.
Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.
“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.
The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.
The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.
Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.
Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.
PRESSURE
Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.
The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.
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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy
Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.
There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.
Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.
Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.
“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.
The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.
Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.
The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.
It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.
“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.
“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.
Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.
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