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Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran
It was late at night in Iran, when 180 ballistic missiles left their launchpads, briefly entered outer space, and finally descended toward their targets, which covered every square inch of Israel. The attempted carpet-bombing, which took place on October 1, was was the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. Israeli, US, and other allied systems intercepted most, but not all, of the missiles.
Israel launched its long awaited response this past Saturday: revealing both astonishing capabilities, and also a terrifying weakness.
Here’s what you need to know.
At approximately 2:00 AM on Saturday morning, an estimated 140 Israeli aircraft flew toward Iranian air space, and for three hours, struck military targets in multiple waves. This feat should have been impossible for the tiny Jewish state: it required flying almost 1,000 miles, much of it through hostile airspace (including Iraq and Syria), multiple in-air refuelings, and massive intelligence coordination.
Including the aerial refueling tankers, the search and rescue teams, and the fighter jets themselves, this one operation required an estimated 30% to 50% of the Israeli air force. A number of navigators were women, a significant statement given the Iranian regime’s severe limitations on women in its society. By 6:00 AM, all hands had returned home safely.
Code named מבצע ימי תשובה, the operation is often translated poetically as “Operation Days of Repentance” but can also be translated more simply (and equally accurately) as “Days of Answer.” By the Hebrew calendar, Israel’s “answer” to Iran commenced exactly a year and a day after the Iranian backed massacre of October 7.
Even now, new information is still coming out about the targets, but here’s what we know so far: Israel’s first wave took out air defense systems in Iran, Iraq and Syria, including the Russian made S300. These systems cannot be easily replaced, especially with Russia currently dedicating its resources to fighting in Ukraine, which leaves Iran vulnerable to future potential Israeli operations.
The second and third Israeli waves destroyed missile launchers and the factories that built them, presumably diminishing Iran’s ability to launch future attacks. Aside from missile infrastructure, one notable target was a secret Iranian military base in Parchin, which is closely linked to Iran’s nuclear research program; another was the air defenses that protect much of Iran’s oil production. As far as we know, there were no direct attacks on oil production itself, on nuclear facilities, or on Iranian leadership. Based on the latest data, civilian casualties came to a grand total of zero.
The message to Iran is clear: Israel can strike inside Iran: anywhere and at any time. Distance is not a barrier, air defenses are practically irrelevant, and Israel’s intelligence information, enabling pinpoint strikes on important Iranian resources, is impressive.
Yet Israel also telegraphed another message: that despite its significant military capabilities, the IDF does not enjoy the political freedom to actually use them.
Operation “Days of Answer” is the result of weeks of negotiations with the Biden/Harris administration, during which America applied enormous pressure on Israel to spare Iran’s leaders, its nuclear program and its oil production. The result is that Iran has not paid a price for its multiple missile attacks on Israel, other than the destruction of some those very missiles. That’s like saying that the penalty for murder is that the judge will confiscate your gun: it effectively communicates the message, “you have nothing to lose, so you might as well try again.”
Indeed, this is exactly what Iran has done: having attacked Israel with a massive barrage in April followed by another in October, an attempt on the life of the Israeli Prime Minister just last week, as well as over a year of attacks by its proxy forces, including the October 7 massacre itself.
While America is understandably obsessed with “stability,” its policy makers seem confused on how one achieves it. A case in point: Israeli forces killed Hamas leader and the mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza on October 16. Since that time, the number of rockets Hamas has successfully fired at Israel has come to a grand total of zero (down from approximately 6,000 per month at its peak last year).
This is not because Hamas does not wish to avenge its leader, but because it is no longer capable of doing so. This is what “regional stability” looks like, and it is the kind of stability we could achieve throughout the Middle East, if major Western powers did not invest quite so much energy into protecting their own enemies. For now, Western appeasement gives Iran a significant advantage and saddles Israel with a terrifying weakness: no matter what capabilities Israel may have, it is not able to actually use them.
Nonetheless, Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza demonstrate another truth: not only does Israel sometimes ignore American pressure, but when Israel is successful, America will sometimes (retroactively) support, and even try to share credit, for Israeli operations. A case in point: in the past month, Israel has killed more terrorists on America’s “Most Wanted” lists than America has in the last 20 years, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who helped to kill 220 US Marines in their Barracks in 1983. Indeed, when Israel successfully took out Nasrallah, despite strong US pressure for an immediate ceasefire, the White House responded that “justice” had been done; after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar in Rafah, Vice President Kamala Harris, who had fiercely advocated against Israeli operations in Rafah, bizarrely stated “we” will always bring terrorists to justice.
Iranian leaders have communicated through various sources conflicting messages: that they will, and also that they will not, mount a “response” to Israel’s strike this week.
Israel has demonstrated that it has the military capacity to wreak significant destruction on the Iranian military machine, its leadership, and the oil infrastructure that funds both. As we wait to see how events unfold, one thing seems clear: the future direction of the Middle East lies, to a great extent, in Israel’s hands.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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JD Vance Says US, Israel Sometimes Have ‘Distinct Interests,’ Underscores Importance of Avoiding War With Iran
Then-US Senate candidate JD Vance, now the 2024 Republican vice-presidential nominee, speaks as GOP presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump smiles at a rally, in Dayton, Ohio, US, Nov. 7, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
US vice presidential nominee JD Vance has appeared to temper a potential Trump administration’s support for Israel during a recent interview, arguing that the US and Jewish state can at times have conflicting interests and warning that Washington should seek to avoid a war with Iran, the Jewish state’s chief adversary in the Middle East.
During the nearly hour-and-a-half interview with podcaster Tim Dillon, Vance stated that although he believes Israel has the right to defend itself from threats, there are instances in which the Jewish state’s military goals could conflict with US interests.
“Israel has the right to defend itself, but America’s interest is sometimes going to be distinct — like sometimes we’re going to have overlapping interests and sometimes we’re going to have distinct interests, and our interest, I think, very much is in not going to war with Iran,” Vance said.
The Republican senator from Ohio argued that a war between Iran and the US would be a significant resource drain on the American military.
“It would be [a] huge distraction of resources; it would be massively expensive to our country,” Vance said.
US intelligence agencies have for years labeled Iran as the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism, noting it devotes significant sums of money and weapons each year to supporting proxies across the Middle East such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Reflecting on Hamas’s Oct. 7 massacre across southern Israel last year, Vance said that he and his wife felt “worried” for their personal friends who live in the Jewish state. The senator then claimed that many American supporters of Israel “were actually much more militaristic than the Israelis that were actually living in Israel” following the Hamas atrocities and suggested that, in the immediate aftermath of the onslaught, American allies of the Jewish state expressed enthusiasm to prosecute wars against Iran and Russia.
“We just have to be smarter, right? We have to be smarter. Now, I don’t want Iran to get a nuclear weapon. And, I think we should be, like, strongly encouraging the Iranians, and using all the influence we have, to encourage them to not have a nuclear weapon,” Vance said.
The senator underscored the importance of engaging in “smart diplomacy” to advance US interests without using military force. Vance used the Abraham Accords — a series of historic, US-brokered normalization agreements struck between Israel and several countries in the Arab world when Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was in the White House — as examples of how the US government should secure peace between the Jewish state and its neighbors.
Vance’s comments raised eyebrows among many pro-Israel supporters on social media, with some arguing that the senator undermined the Trump campaign’s attempts to frame the former president as more supportive of the Jewish state than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
In the months leading up to the election, Trump has aggressively courted Jewish voters, touting his administration’s previous work on the Abraham Accords and close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has also stated that his administration would deport non-American residents who participate in violent anti-Israel protests.
The post JD Vance Says US, Israel Sometimes Have ‘Distinct Interests,’ Underscores Importance of Avoiding War With Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Turkey’s Erdogan Sends ‘Best Wishes’ to Iran After Israel Strike, Continues Fierce Criticism of Jewish State
Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis (not seen) at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, May 13, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave his “best wishes” to Iran and accused Israel of trying to provoke a regional war in the Middle East in response to the Jewish state’s airstrikes against Iranian military targets over the weekend.
Erdogan’s comments continued his hostile posture toward Israel over the past year, during which Turkish-Israeli relations have nosedived amid Israel’s ongoing military operations against two Iran-backed Islamist terrorist groups: Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On Saturday, over 100 Israeli aircraft targeted missile production sites and air defenses inside Iran, significantly crippling Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and production capacity. The sophisticated operation was in response to Iran firing more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel earlier in the month, as well as ongoing attacks from its terror proxies in the region, according to Israeli officials.
Responding to the strikes, Erdogan expressed solidarity with Iran and portrayed Israel as the aggressor.
“I extend my best wishes to our neighbor Iran and the Iranian government, which were the target of Israeli aggression last night,” Erdogan said at an event in the southern city of Hatay, according to Turkish media.
The Turkish president also claimed without evidence that Israel was seeking to set a “trap” to start a regional war.
“The Zionist Israeli government is attempting to ignite a regional conflict. It is crucial not to fall into the trap set by Israel and its supporters,” he said. “With this mindset, Israel will achieve nothing. We expect their wrath from Allah.”
Meanwhile, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry released a statement condemning Israel’s military strikes and similarly accusing the Jewish state of bringing the region toward a broader conflict. The ministry went on to falsely accuse Israel of “committing genocide in Gaza,” preparing to annex the West Bank, and attacking civilians in Lebanon.
“Ending the terrorism created by Israel in the region has become a historic duty in terms of establishing international security and peace,” the statement read, calling on the international community to take steps to avoid further escalation.
The ministry and Erdogan’s comments came two months after Turkey’s Ambassador to Iran Hicabi Kırlangıç lambasted Israel in an interview as “one of the most ruthless enemies” and condemned Western countries for supporting Jerusalem. He also said that Iran’s plan to attack Israel in retaliation for the killing over the summer of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran should be harsh enough to force the Jewish state to “fall to its knees.”
Haniyeh was killed in an explosion in Iran’s capital city on July 31. Iran, the chief international sponsor of Hamas, accused Israel of carrying out the assassination and vowed revenge. The Israeli government has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for Haniyeh’s death.
Iran, which initially launched an unprecedented direct attack against Israel in April, also said it would retaliate following Israeli airstrikes in recent weeks that killed the top leaders of its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon, including longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
On Oct. 1, Iran acted on its threats, firing nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. The only fatality from the barrage was Sameh Asli, 37, a Palestinian from Jabalia in Gaza. He was killed by missile shrapnel in the West Bank village of Nu’eima, near Jericho, during the attack.
Following Israel’s retaliatory strikes this past weekend, Iranian officials attempted to downplay the severity of the strikes. However, an Israeli weapons systems and intelligence expert told The Algemeiner on Sunday that the Islamist regime’s ballistic missile program will need at least a year to recover from the strikes.
Amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and its proxies, Turkey has been one of the fiercest critics of Israel — and defenders of Hamas — since the outbreak of the Gaza war last October.
Last month Erdogan said that the United Nations General Assembly should recommend the use of force, in line with a resolution it passed in 1950, if the UN Security Council fails to stop Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
In August, Erdogan declared Aug. 2 a day of national mourning over the killing of Haniyeh.
The announcement came days after Erdogan made an explicit threat to invade Israel, leading Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz to call on NATO to expel Turkey, which has the alliance’s second largest military.
Turkey has reportedly blocked cooperation between NATO and Israel since last October because of the war in Hamas-ruled Gaza and said the alliance should not engage with Israel as a partner until the conflict ends.
Erdogan’s comments were the latest in a recent wave of hostile moves targeting the Jewish state.
Earlier this year, for example, Turkey’s foreign ministry compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.
In May, the Turkish trade ministry said it had ceased all exports and imports to and from Israel. The announcement came after Turkey imposed trade restrictions on Israeli exports over Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza following the terrorist group’s Oct. 7 invasion of and massacre across the southern region of the Jewish state.
That followed Erdogan in March threatening to “send Netanyahu to Allah to take care of him, make him miserable, and curse him.” He previously accused Israel of operating “Nazi” concentration camps and compared Netanyahu with Hitler.
Weeks earlier, Erdogan said that Netanyahu was a “butcher” who would be tried as a “war criminal” over Israel’s defensive military operations in Gaza. He has also called Israel a “terror state.”
Turkey hosts senior Hamas officials and, together with Iran and Qatar, has provided a large portion of the Palestinian terrorist group’s budget.
Several Western and Arab states designate Hamas, an offshoot of the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, as a terrorist group.
However, Erdogan has defended Hamas terrorists as “resistance fighters” against what he described as an Israeli occupation of Palestinian land.
Israel withdrew all its troops and civilian settlers from Gaza in 2005.
Turkish-Israeli diplomatic relations have nosedived since the Hamas atrocities of last Oct. 7, when the terrorist group that rules Gaza murdered 1,200 people in southern Israel and kidnapped over 250 hostages, launching the ongoing war in the Palestinian enclave.
The post Turkey’s Erdogan Sends ‘Best Wishes’ to Iran After Israel Strike, Continues Fierce Criticism of Jewish State first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel Wants More Peace Deals With Arab Countries After War, Netanyahu Says
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a memorial ceremony for those murdered by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and those who fell in the “Iron Sword” war, at the Knesset, the Parliament, in Jerusalem, Oct. 28, 2024. Photo: DEBBIE HILL/Pool via REUTERS
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he hopes to reach peace deals with more Arab countries once the war against Iranian terrorist proxies Hamas and Hezbollah is complete.
“The day after Hamas no longer controls Gaza and Hezbollah no longer sits on our northern border [in Lebanon], we are working these days on plans to stabilize those two fronts. But the day after includes something else of utmost importance,” Netanyahu said in a speech to parliament.
“I aspire to continue the process I led a few years ago of the signing of the historic Abraham Accords, and achieve peace with more Arab countries,” he said.
Israel, under the US-brokered 2020 accords, normalized relations with four Arab countries: the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
Since then, Israel, with US support, has sought to also include other nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. Riyadh says it will not recognize Israel without the creation of a Palestinian state.
“These countries, and other countries, see clearly the blows we are landing on those who attack us, the Iranian axis of evil,” he said. “They aspire, like us, for a stable, secure, and prosperous Middle East.”
The post Israel Wants More Peace Deals With Arab Countries After War, Netanyahu Says first appeared on Algemeiner.com.