RSS
New War Goals for Israel? No.
A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
The successful, but limited, Israeli strike on Iranian targets has prompted some analysts to ask if Israel’s war aims have changed — or suggest that the aims should change.
Some also say that Israel didn’t strike hard enough, or strike the right targets — denouncing the choice not to hit nuclear facilities, military sites and leaders, and economic infrastructure.
A: No, they didn’t.
B: No, they shouldn’t.
C: Hard enough for what?
D: Those are targets the US did not want hit, but which Israel also had reason not to hit.
Israel’s entry into Gaza on October 27, 2023, had three immediate aims: to uproot the military and governing power of Hamas; to secure the Gaza border and the people of Israel; and to rescue the 240 hostages taken by Hamas. Those goals have not changed, although American disapproval slowed the process considerably.
What did change is the military entry of Hezbollah and Iran directly into the war. Hezbollah began shelling Israel on October 8, 2023 — well before Israel crossed the border into Gaza — and Iran has struck Israel twice with missiles.
Israel’s war aims expanded to securing the northern border and allowing 60,000+ Israelis to return to their homes in the north — and preventing Iran from getting in the way.
Israel had ignored the long-range plans of Hamas and Hezbollah and ignored their tunnel-digging and arsenal-building. A deconfliction arrangement between Israel and Russia allowed Israel to reach Syria and eliminate various weapons manufacturing capabilities and the transport of certain weapons from Iran through Damascus to Lebanon, but a low-level war had been ongoing for years.
It was an ugly and volatile mess, but Israel appears to have done its best not to expand its areas of operation. Eventually, however, it was impossible to ignore Hezbollah in the north, thus: pagers attacks, surgical strikes on Hezbollah arsenals, leaders and headquarters; and strikes on Hezbollah banks and financial bunkers.
On the Iran front, Israel saw the rise of Iranian military manufacturing — particularly after the Biden-Harris administration lifted oil sale sanctions on Tehran, increasing the mullah government’s available cash by billions of dollars. Aside from drones and ballistic missiles, some of which have gone to Russia for use in Ukraine, the nuclear program expanded as well.
In June, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors voted overwhelmingly to demand that Iran take action to resolve concerns about its nuclear work. The US was hesitant, noting that pressure could make Iran escalate its nuclear activity. But later that month, Britain, France, and Germany wrote to the wrote to the UN Security Council, detailing Iran’s violations of the 2015 JCPOA.
Iran still had a chance to stay out. It didn’t.
Keeping with its own interests and an odd sense of duty to its American patron, the Israeli air force struck military targets only:
- Air Defense Systems. This will allow the Israeli Air Force to return later, if necessary. It also probably gives the Russians hives, as the destroyed systems were Russian.
- Ballistic Missile production facilities and facilities for producing solid rocket fuel. This will reduce Iran’s ability to strike and make it less necessary for Israel to rely on the US for ballistic missile defenses. Iran will have trouble restoring production.
- Systems protecting sites including oil refineries, gas fields, and a major port — while not attacking those sites themselves. This is a warning to the mullah regime that its assets remain vulnerable to future attacks.
- Taleghan 2 in Parchin, previously used for nuclear testing activities. Although Taleghan 2 was cited in much of the media as relating to Iran’s “defunct” nuclear weapons development program, at least one analyst said that “even if no equipment remained inside,” the building would have provided “intrinsic value” for future nuclear weapons-related activities.
Iran reported four military casualties and no civilian casualties. All Israeli planes and crews returned safely.
The result is that Israel improved its position regarding Iran without assuming responsibility of overthrowing the regime or eliminating its nuclear program. These things should be done, of course, but not by Israel and not while Israel is fighting on other, close-in fronts. The US and other allies should be stepping up here, but the US has already failed to stop the Iranian-backed Houthis in the Red Sea and appears uninterested in the rest.
Israel’s primary objectives remain security of its borders and its citizenry; elimination of the arsenals of Hamas and Hezbollah — thus severely constraining (or eliminating) their power to terrorize the local population and to attack Israel; and the release of the hostages, living and dead, held in Gaza in violation of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).
For the longer term, note Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu:
I have not given up on the Iran nuclear program; it is at the forefront of our minds. We continue to work to remove the Iranian threat. Today, Israel is seen as the most powerful country in the region.
What fateful days of a historical turn.
Iran, as well as the Israeli people, should take that seriously.
Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly magazine.
The post New War Goals for Israel? No. first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
The post Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
The post Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
The post Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks first appeared on Algemeiner.com.