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Israel Is Not Defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon – It’s Only Laying the Groundwork for the Next War
Smoke billows over Khiam, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Oct. 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
Following the unexpected success of the series of blows inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah’s high command in August and September, the IDF began a ground operation in Lebanon.
The confusion and embarrassment that gripped Hezbollah undoubtedly damaged not only its strategic and systemic command capabilities, but also the functioning of its operational formations. The organization’s rate of rocket launches in late September was much lower than expected. More importantly, the quality of those launches — the ability to concentrate barrages of complex rockets and missiles to overcome Israeli air defenses, and the ability to locate and accurately hit targets in Israel — was significantly diminished.
Precisely in light of the enemy’s disequilibrium, the modest goals of the “Northern Arrows” operation stand out. From everything that has been said and published, the operation is intended to return the residents of the north to their homes through the cleansing of the first line of Lebanese villages from Radwan Force attack-supporting infrastructure.
This relatively modest plan suits the Israeli government’s political goals as well as the Americans’ desire to limit the war. A limited plan may entail limited risks in principle, but from a narrow military point of view, this particular plan is based on simplistic work assumptions and entails great operational risks. A clear definition of the work assumptions implicit in the plan will make it possible to critically assess whether the situation has changed and whether the plan should accordingly be changed.
According to the IDF, a force numbering about two divisions (accurate to early October) entered the strip of Lebanese villages very close to the Israeli border with the aim of destroying the Radwan infrastructure there. In other words:
- The IDF launched an operation against infrastructure, not against an enemy.
- As long as the enemy allows it, the IDF will prefer to carry out the mission without combat confrontation.
Although Hezbollah’s top command level was neutralized and a significant part of its rocket and missile arrays destroyed, the organization’s ground army in southern Lebanon was only slightly damaged. The IDF’s announcements about the operation’s limited objectives were intended for Israeli and American ears, but also signaled the enemy. The implied message was this: “If you refrain from opposing IDF forces in the limited operation, its expansion will be avoided. This will allow Hezbollah’s southern units to survive.”
If that was indeed the message, then it is clear that Israel’s strategic goal is to end the war with an international agreement after the destruction of Hezbollah’s infrastructure on the border line.
From a purely military point of view, the Northern Command’s operational concept here is problematic. The deployment of the IDF on a very thin strip, in the face of a Hezbollah army that maintains significant military strength, including anti-tank and mortar capabilities, raids and ambushes, exposes the brigades to dangerous enemy initiatives. At least one battle so far, in which almost 50 fighters of the Egoz battalion’s combat team were injured, illustrated this risk, and since early October IDF casualties have grown significantly.
The IDF is trying to overcome this weakness by securing the forces with concentrated air effort and firepower. But from a military standpoint, it would have been more correct to capture the Hezbollah army in southern Lebanon through rapid divisional moves deep into the south and encircle the enemy based on the river lines (the Litani, Zaharni or Avali).
Defeating an enemy in battle is usually based on the principle of reducing friction with the hard shell and then quickly and aggressively surrounding and squeezing it. In this instance, the encirclement of Hezbollah’s military force and threat to destroy it would offer a better chance, if not a promise, of a) continuing to deny the enemy a return to operational equilibrium and b) bringing about the disintegration of the tactical arrays in the south in the same way the command arrays collapsed in Beirut.
On the micro-tactical level, quick and decisive divisional moves are supposed to reduce the main threat to IDF forces: advanced anti-tank missiles. In general, fast combat movement makes it more difficult for the defender and reduces his ambush and shooting opportunities. More concretely, as the days pass from the beeper blasts and the broad Air Force attacks on the bank of targets in the south, the more likely it is that the Hezbollah units will recover and prepare better for battle.
Despite the inherent risks, the strategy of clearing a narrow buffer strip and ending the war in the north with an agreement is a legitimate choice. Hezbollah’s southern army is a significant military threat capable of exacting a heavy price from the IDF. Hezbollah knows full well that after a year of fighting in Gaza, the IDF is not the fresh, capable army, armed to the teeth and furious, that it was at the beginning of the war. It is very possible that the enemy will cooperate with the plan and take the chance of preserving its power over an attempt to restore its lost dignity. It is also possible that that is Iran’s directive.
Either way, the assumptions underlying the current plan must be defined and their validity examined. One must also prepare for an immediate change of the plan in the north if it turns out that the enemy has chosen not to cooperate. In fact, just preparing the broader ground move may have a restraining effect on Hezbollah’s ground forces in the south.
We must define the situation clearly:
- The IDF went into Lebanon to fight the enemy’s infrastructure, not the enemy itself.
- Under these circumstances, combat contact will usually be initiated by the enemy.
- The current move is not optimal in terms of securing IDF forces. Israel is allowing Hezbollah’s defense and attack units, which are mostly complete, to watch the IDF’s moves and initiate action accordingly.
- De-equilibrium is, by definition, a temporary matter. As time passes, the impact of the inflicted blows weakens and operational cohesion returns. Restoring self-respect in the face of operational opportunities in the field may turn out to be a growing logic among the enemy forces in the south.
- Choosing a strategy that does not seek Hezbollah’s military defeat will inevitably leave the organization a military force in Lebanon.
If the risks inherent in points 1-4 materialize in several consecutive events, then the option of encirclement and ground decision of the Hezbollah army in the south should be realized quickly. It must be prepared for, both as an operational response and as a reserved threat to the enemy.
The fifth point concerns Israel’s strategy. At the moment, the strategy strives for the demobilization of South Lebanon not by force but by some kind of political agreement, apparently in the spirit of 1701 (the UN Security Council resolution that ended the Second Lebanon War). As we have bitter experience of the unreliability of foreign demobilization mechanisms, the true meaning of Israel’s strategy is that the current Lebanon War is not an end to the conflict with Hezbollah but simply a prelude to the next war.
Again, this is not necessarily a wrong strategy. Despite the achievements of the strikes in the summer, Hezbollah is not defeated, and its ground units in the south are certainly still capable of battle. Israel, meanwhile, is fighting in seven arenas. Also, to a significant degree, the prolongation of the war in Lebanon serves Hamas in Gaza, where the pressure has been eased. It is also difficult to see a clear ending mechanism for the direct war that has started between Iran and Israel. Each strategy has advantages and disadvantages, and the important thing is to understand them.
The current strategy strives to shorten the long war we have fallen into. The thinking underlying this strategy is that the current Lebanon war will not be the last. As ever, Hezbollah will prepare for the next war while learning from its failures in the current round. In the future, Israel will not be able to assume that a series of secret operations will provide it with the same benefits. It is also possible that the bank of targets will not be replenished at the same rate in light of information security lessons the enemy is now learning.
The current war is being waged while counter-terrorism tactics, such as eliminating senior commanders, are yielding surprising systemic achievements. But even with these successes, Israel is choosing not to take advantage of a rare opportunity to overwhelm Hezbollah’s army in the south. This choice does not show much self-confidence in the purely military field.
If the IDF is to defeat Hezbollah’s future military power in the south and learn lessons from the current war, it will have to be not only more determined but also more adaptable. The current Israeli caution stems, at least in part, from an understanding that on the military level, our forces are dangerously vulnerable to enemy capabilities and not effective enough to cleanse the south without sinking into an eternal guerilla war.
The current strategy may be successful. It is possible that we will return the residents of the north and reach an agreement. But such a success, should it occur, will mark not only the operational achievement of the covert and air strikes that landed on the enemy but also their limitations.
No one will dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon for us. And if a significant part of its power is preserved, its deterrence of Israel will improve, and Israel will not be able to enforce demilitarization by force. Hezbollah’s survival in defeat will simply turn over the hourglass for the next clash with a smarter enemy that is eager to restore its honor.
The current war marks, therefore, the opening of the race between the parties to prepare for the next war. This may be the decisive conflict not only in the north, but also for the future of the axis. The IDF must develop a clear and distinct military decision-making capacity — a military capacity, not just another list of methods of fighting terrorism.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal recently retired from military service as commander of the Dado Center for Multidisciplinary Military Thinking. His book The Battle Before the War (MOD 2022, in Hebrew) dealt with the IDF’s need to change, innovate and renew a decisive war approach. His next book, Renewal – The October 7th War and Israel’s Defense Strategy, is about to be published by Levin Publications. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post Israel Is Not Defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon – It’s Only Laying the Groundwork for the Next War first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Letter from Jasper: This hanukkiah miraculously survived Alberta’s summer wildfire
Warren Waxer has lived in Jasper, Alta., since 1980. His home, along with 358 others, was destroyed in the wildfire that roared through the town from July 22-24, 2024. Very little survived the intense flames—even his car keys were found melted in the rubble, he told The CJN. But as professional crews scoured the razed house, he writes, they uncovered one treasured object.
Three weeks after the wildfire that swept through Jasper National Park and the townsite, Team Rubicon arrived and got to work. Team Rubicon is a humanitarian group, led by military veterans, that helps clean up after disasters. Wearing hazmat suits and breathing masks, this group safely sifts through the ash and debris—the remains of people’s homes and businesses.
Other than the charred hulks of the furnace, fridge and stove, we couldn’t see much that could be salvaged, and we weren’t far wrong. When you see a couple of shiny metal parallel stripes on the grass where your aluminum ladder once was, you can’t be too hopeful.
Each item or partial item that the team recovered would be scrubbed of possible contaminants and was then presented us, the homeowners. We were handed a 35mm camera with the glass lens dripping out the front, shattered bits of marble sculpture, singed bits of pottery, and… wait, what’s that?
Our Hanukkah menorah!
A little worse for wear, listing backwards, missing a couple of nights and the shamash holder, but there it was, proud and defiant. From a fire that destroyed anything made of soft metal, somehow, this menorah lived to celebrate another Hanukkah.
It had been a bad month realizing that treasured memorabilia and family keepsakes were most likely gone. Looking at the basement that was now filled knee-deep with ash and the charred remains of a two-storey house, it was hard to be optimistic. The fact that the menorah survived has boosted our spirits considerably. It has also boosted the status of this menorah from perfectly serviceable (albeit unremarkable) to treasured family heirloom. Not bad for a small-town menorah.
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Mural of Holocaust Survivors in Italy Completely Painted Over in Antisemitic Vandalism
Before and after photos showing the mural in Milan, Italy, that was painted over by vandals. Photo: Provided
A mural in Milan, Italy, that depicts two Holocaust survivors was recently painted over by vandals, who defaced the artwork last month as well.
The mural, located in Milan’s Piazzale Loreto, was painted by renowned Italian contemporary pop artist and activist aleXsandro Palombo and unveiled on Sept. 28. It shows Italian Senate member for life Liliana Segre and Italian author Sami Modiano, two survivors of the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp during the Holocaust. They are dressed in a striped uniform, worn by concentration camp inmates, underneath bulletproof jackets with yellow Stars of David badges that have the word “Jude” in the center. The badges resemble the ones Jews were forced to wear by the Nazis during World War II. The mural is titled “Anti-Semitism, History Repeating.”
Palombo shared on Dec. 2 that vandals painted over the entire mural with white paint, erasing it completely. He said in a released statement that he felt “profoundly embarrassed” by the vandalism. He described it as “an offense after the offense” and “the best way to hide antisemitism at a time when antisemitism is spreading and someone has also decided to deny honorary citizenship to a woman who survived the Holocaust.”
Palombo was referring to Pinero, a small town near Turin in Italy that recently rejected efforts to grant honorary citizenship to Segre. A public educator on the topic of the Holocaust, Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella named Segre a senator for life in 2018. This past November, the City Council of Pinero rejected a motion to confer honorary citizenship to Segre as a symbol in the fight against antisemitism. The move sparked controversy, especially in light of the fact that it took place not long after Pinero Mayor Luca Salvai displayed a Palestinian flag on the balcony of the town hall.
Palombo’s mural of Segre and Modiano was previously vandalized on Nov. 11. The yellow Stars of David and the faces of the Holocaust survivors were scraped off.
A partial view of the mural in Milan, Italy, before (left) and after it was vandalized. Photo: Piero Fassino via X/Twitter screenshot
Ignazio La Russa, president of the Senate in Italy, denounced the mural’s most recent vandalism in an Italian-language post on X. “A coat of white paint applied by some idiot can erase a mural but not the memory,” he wrote. “In firmly condemning a vile act, we reiterate our strong no to anti-Semitism and extend our sincere solidarity to Senator Liliana Segre and Sami Modiano.”
Italy’s Holocaust memorial museum, the Fondazione Museo della Shoah, said, “These acts not only harm art, but undermine the value of memory, which is fundamental for building a conscious and just society.”
In October, a mural by Palombo that showcased Vlada Patapov — a survivor of the Nova music festival massacre that took place during the Hamas-led terrorist attack in Israel on Oct. 7 last year — was also defaced by vandals.
In November 2023, a month after the start of the Israel-Hamas war, Palombo painted a mural that featured Holocaust victim and teenage diarist Anne Frank next to a girl from the Gaza Strip. At the time, he made a second mural of a boy from Gaza dressed as a Hamas terrorist. The boy is depicted standing next to an adult terrorist and together they point their guns at a young Jewish boy from the Warsaw Ghetto during the Holocaust.
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Montreal’s mayor and police must take a stronger stance on anti-Israel protests, say local politicians
Montreal police (SPVM) are failing to use Criminal Code provisions and municipal bylaws to address unlawful and hate-related activities in the city on a regular basis, and a stronger tone needs to be set, say a trio of Montreal-area politicians.
Writing to Mayor Valérie Plante on Dec. 18, Mount Royal MP Anthony Housefather, along with Côte Saint-Luc Mayor Mitchell Brownstein and Westmount Mayor Christina Smith, expressed “deep concern” about the SPVM’s failure to address unlawful assembly, incitement to hatred, mischief, disturbing religious worship and intimidation, while preferring de-escalation in most cases.
Acknowledging civilian police oversight cannot direct daily operations or how cases are handled, the group wrote, “We can address deficiencies in policy and strategic guidance that have emboldened hate activists to regularly violate the law, without consequence.” The three signatories want to see policy direction to ensure zero tolerance for antisemitic crime and activity in Montreal, and “police robustly use the criminal law tools and municipal bylaws available to them to protect the public.”
They cite damage at Concordia University on Nov. 21 and Palais des congrès on Nov. 22 as a result of violent protesters; intimidation by demonstrators outside Shaar Hashomayim synagogue on Nov. 5, despite a court injunction; and activities in Westmount involving clear violations of municipal bylaws, among other instances. “The approach taken by SPVM appeared to be rooted, at least in part, in the desire to de-escalate, and thereby reduce violence,” which they say is a commendable goal—but add the current approach is flawed.
“Over-reliance” on non-enforcement to de-escalate has emboldened protesters and demonstrators to engage in intimidating, violent acts and unequivocal hate speech, they say, which police fail to recognize at protests, demonstrations and riots. “This hate speech promotes fear, emotional trauma and psychological harm on targeted community members, affecting the community’s perceived safety. It normalizes hatred, creating a culture that marginalizes those affected and makes future discrimination, hate crimes and general violence more likely.”
They contend the SPVM approach undervalues and undermines the rationale of criminalizing wilful promotion of hatred and betrays a lack of understanding of the full range of tools available to police. If the goal is to de-escalate and reduce violence, “the goal is not succeeding. Montreal, more than any other city in our country, is witnessing protests that are not peaceful, as hatemongers believe they can act with impunity, with few if any consequences.”
The City of Montreal & its police force need to improve the way they police demonstrations. Following meetings with Mayor Plante & police, Mayors @mbrownsteincsl & @smithwestmount & I have written to Mayor Plante to explain what needs to change & how to do it. pic.twitter.com/poo83sOeAR
— Anthony Housefather (@AHousefather) December 19, 2024
While Housefather, Brownstein and Smith took pains to praise officers on the ground and efforts to protect Jewish institutions since October 2023, they contend the SPVM is also undermining constitutional rights of those victimized.
They reminded Plante about Rabbi Adam Scheier, who was ordered by police to leave a Montreal street corner as a pro-Palestinian demonstration passed to avoid inciting the crowd, “in the misguided belief that intimidation is best addressed by capitulating to those who might hate a man wearing a kippah.” A few weeks earlier, Rabbi Scheier and attendees were advised by police to leave their synagogue through the back door to avoid an illegal demonstration.
They want the agglomeration (which governs shared municipal services like the SPVM but is effectively controlled by the City of Montreal) to have police use existing provisions to address unlawful activities associated with anti-Israel protests; conduct specialized training on hate crime investigations (repeating a request to call on Toronto attorney Mark Sandler to train police in hate crime investigations); implement zero-tolerance for antisemitism and other forms of hate; and ensure robust enforcement of all relevant laws.
The letter details how Criminal Code provisions may be applied but are ignored, for example, participating in unlawful assemblies and wearing masks or disguising oneself pursuant to section 66. Incitement to hatred, mischief, disturbing religious worship, counselling terrorist activity, and intimidation have all been duly recorded and witnessed multiple times over the last year by Montrealers, Jews and non-Jews alike, yet the SPVM, they write, continues to look the other way, preferring maintaining peace over enforcing order.
Missing from the Montreal police toolkit, they contend, is understanding the significance of protesters’ language and symbols, which requires expertise, noting some protest activities “speak powerfully to wilful promotion of hatred and incitement to hatred,” including glorification of terrorist symbols, slogans, and activities, praise for Oct. 7 architect and deceased Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
The letter was copied to SPVM Chief Fady Dagher, Chief Inspector Mohamed Bouhdid, and other elected officials, along with Deborah Lyons, the federal special envoy on preserving Holocaust remembrance and combatting antisemitism. It was delivered the same day as an appeal from the United Against Hate Canada (UAHC) advocacy group, urging all suburban mayors to address the issue.
Montreal has become the epicentre of antisemitism in Canada, says UAHC director general and former Montreal city councillor Marvin Rotrand, citing SPVM numbers indicating 238 reported hate crimes and incidents targeting Jewish communities since Oct.7, 2023. The Dec. 18 Beth Tikvah synagogue firebombing is the latest in a “growing list of violent incidents against Jews and Jewish institutions in Montreal.”
The SPVM says there have been 42 arrests in connection with anti-Israel demonstrations and antisemitic incidents in the city since October 2023, but refused to divulge any information about the cases, many of which, The CJN has learned, have not yet been turned over to Quebec prosecutors.
There have been few arrests or charges in Montreal in contrast to elsewhere in Canada, says Rotrand, who concurs with Côte Saint-Luc’s Brownstein, who recently charged that the tone is set by Montreal’s mayor, who has regularly expressed concerns that the free speech rights of protesters at hateful rallies targeting Israel need to be prioritized.
The Plante administration has been under a barrage of criticism over the last year for everything from anti-racism commissioner Bochra Manaï attending the rally where Adil Charkaoui called for God to slay all Zionists, to the administration’s condemnations of Islamophobia in the same breath as every statement on antisemitism, and proclamations of Montreal as a “city of peace.”
The letter comes as the SPVM releases a collection of photos three weeks following the destructive anti-NATO riots in Montreal, seeking the public’s help identifying suspects. That suggests a sluggish response, say critics, and a product of the SPVM strategy arresting perpetrators after incidents to avoid intensifying situations, but also minimizing any immediate deterrence.
Last week, Brownstein posted a message to Plante, offering as example how south shore Longueuil police and Sûreté du Québec officers acted in swift and muscular fashion without incident to clear protesters in their respective jurisdictions. “We are at an inflection point in the history of the city of Montreal,” he said. “The world is watching the streets of Montreal and is horrified by what they see.”
Rotrand laid some blame with Plante’s close colleagues, particularly Côte des Neiges-Notre Dame de Grâce borough mayor Gracia Katahwa, who slammed an action plan to combat antisemitism that was penned by one MP, two MNAs and several municipal politicians in west-end Montreal.
Plante’s point-person on fighting racism objected to a recommendation to allow off-duty, armed police officers, or specially trained security guards who carry weapons as when transporting cash for private business, to be hired to secure Jewish schools and institutions targeted by hate crimes and violence. She derided the report as “American-style gun-centred solutions.” Rotrand also cited Manaï’s behaviour and city councillor Alex Norris’s public support for the boycott, diverstment and sanctions movement.
At agglo council Dec. 19, Smith demanded action as residents, including many seniors, are subjected to weekly demonstrations and often blocked from entering or leaving their homes for hours on end, and businesses cannot be accessed or are forced to close early. “We need to see clear and easy access to homes and businesses,” she said, asking Plante to meet with police “to make sure all the bylaws of the City of Westmount are respected.”
The response came from Norris, who said he understand that some of the 400 demonstrations “can disturb and create inconveniences, but above all the right to demonstrate is enshrined in the constitution and charters of Canada and Quebec—and the mission of the SPVM, our mission, is to ensure the security of everybody. That’s residents, businesses, demonstrators, everybody, and we will respect the independence and professionalism of the SPVM.”
Smith was unimpressed. “I understand all that; everybody understands that. But noise, activities—sometimes it’s after midnight and for these people, it has been 15 months like this.” Businesses that survived COVID, she said, must now close a few times a week. “We have bylaws for this. It’s simple.”
Plante agreed her concerns were valid. “Bylaws must be respected, and we’ve had this conversation,” she said, pledging to follow up. “We have to go further and look at among other things, night disturbances and people feeling safe. That’s absolutely essential.”
For his part, Brownstein explained to agglo council that Criminal Code prohibitions already exist against unlawful assemblies and mask-wearing during such events. “Are police aware?” he asked Plante, adding they may need reminding or expert training. Norris said the city will look at Brownstein’s recommendations, “but with respect of the autonomy and professionalism of the police to make sure there is no interference in operational affairs.” Brownstein lauded police in his city for the work they do but said it’s time for Montreal to adopt “zero tolerance…. It’s enough.” He said a stronger tone is required, as are more arrests.
Plante called it “odd for you to tell us to interfere and tell the police what to do. I understand the feelings many people have but we must not interfere with forces of law and order because it creates problems for our democracy…. You have the right to not like my answer…. Since the beginning of the terrorist attacks by Hamas and afterwards, what’s happened in Palestine and with 400 demonstrations, we know it’s difficult for the Jewish community, absolutely, and we denounce it every single time.”
She said she will look at recommendations. “I understand the insecurity, but we’re not going to tell police what to do. Don’t ask me to tell the police what to do. I will always refuse.”
While Plante is not seeking a third term, her party, Projet Montréal, will contest the 2025 election, and Côte-des-Neiges—Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Mayor Gracia Kasoki Katahwa has already declared her interest in a city mayoralty run. In an email last week, Rotrand told supporters that, while his group rarely takes overt political positions, “We are calling for the defeat of Projet Montréal. Its total lack of empathy for the Jewish community should be one of the prime reasons for its defeat.”
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