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Israel Is Not Defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon – It’s Only Laying the Groundwork for the Next War
Smoke billows over Khiam, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Oct. 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
Following the unexpected success of the series of blows inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah’s high command in August and September, the IDF began a ground operation in Lebanon.
The confusion and embarrassment that gripped Hezbollah undoubtedly damaged not only its strategic and systemic command capabilities, but also the functioning of its operational formations. The organization’s rate of rocket launches in late September was much lower than expected. More importantly, the quality of those launches — the ability to concentrate barrages of complex rockets and missiles to overcome Israeli air defenses, and the ability to locate and accurately hit targets in Israel — was significantly diminished.
Precisely in light of the enemy’s disequilibrium, the modest goals of the “Northern Arrows” operation stand out. From everything that has been said and published, the operation is intended to return the residents of the north to their homes through the cleansing of the first line of Lebanese villages from Radwan Force attack-supporting infrastructure.
This relatively modest plan suits the Israeli government’s political goals as well as the Americans’ desire to limit the war. A limited plan may entail limited risks in principle, but from a narrow military point of view, this particular plan is based on simplistic work assumptions and entails great operational risks. A clear definition of the work assumptions implicit in the plan will make it possible to critically assess whether the situation has changed and whether the plan should accordingly be changed.
According to the IDF, a force numbering about two divisions (accurate to early October) entered the strip of Lebanese villages very close to the Israeli border with the aim of destroying the Radwan infrastructure there. In other words:
- The IDF launched an operation against infrastructure, not against an enemy.
- As long as the enemy allows it, the IDF will prefer to carry out the mission without combat confrontation.
Although Hezbollah’s top command level was neutralized and a significant part of its rocket and missile arrays destroyed, the organization’s ground army in southern Lebanon was only slightly damaged. The IDF’s announcements about the operation’s limited objectives were intended for Israeli and American ears, but also signaled the enemy. The implied message was this: “If you refrain from opposing IDF forces in the limited operation, its expansion will be avoided. This will allow Hezbollah’s southern units to survive.”
If that was indeed the message, then it is clear that Israel’s strategic goal is to end the war with an international agreement after the destruction of Hezbollah’s infrastructure on the border line.
From a purely military point of view, the Northern Command’s operational concept here is problematic. The deployment of the IDF on a very thin strip, in the face of a Hezbollah army that maintains significant military strength, including anti-tank and mortar capabilities, raids and ambushes, exposes the brigades to dangerous enemy initiatives. At least one battle so far, in which almost 50 fighters of the Egoz battalion’s combat team were injured, illustrated this risk, and since early October IDF casualties have grown significantly.
The IDF is trying to overcome this weakness by securing the forces with concentrated air effort and firepower. But from a military standpoint, it would have been more correct to capture the Hezbollah army in southern Lebanon through rapid divisional moves deep into the south and encircle the enemy based on the river lines (the Litani, Zaharni or Avali).
Defeating an enemy in battle is usually based on the principle of reducing friction with the hard shell and then quickly and aggressively surrounding and squeezing it. In this instance, the encirclement of Hezbollah’s military force and threat to destroy it would offer a better chance, if not a promise, of a) continuing to deny the enemy a return to operational equilibrium and b) bringing about the disintegration of the tactical arrays in the south in the same way the command arrays collapsed in Beirut.
On the micro-tactical level, quick and decisive divisional moves are supposed to reduce the main threat to IDF forces: advanced anti-tank missiles. In general, fast combat movement makes it more difficult for the defender and reduces his ambush and shooting opportunities. More concretely, as the days pass from the beeper blasts and the broad Air Force attacks on the bank of targets in the south, the more likely it is that the Hezbollah units will recover and prepare better for battle.
Despite the inherent risks, the strategy of clearing a narrow buffer strip and ending the war in the north with an agreement is a legitimate choice. Hezbollah’s southern army is a significant military threat capable of exacting a heavy price from the IDF. Hezbollah knows full well that after a year of fighting in Gaza, the IDF is not the fresh, capable army, armed to the teeth and furious, that it was at the beginning of the war. It is very possible that the enemy will cooperate with the plan and take the chance of preserving its power over an attempt to restore its lost dignity. It is also possible that that is Iran’s directive.
Either way, the assumptions underlying the current plan must be defined and their validity examined. One must also prepare for an immediate change of the plan in the north if it turns out that the enemy has chosen not to cooperate. In fact, just preparing the broader ground move may have a restraining effect on Hezbollah’s ground forces in the south.
We must define the situation clearly:
- The IDF went into Lebanon to fight the enemy’s infrastructure, not the enemy itself.
- Under these circumstances, combat contact will usually be initiated by the enemy.
- The current move is not optimal in terms of securing IDF forces. Israel is allowing Hezbollah’s defense and attack units, which are mostly complete, to watch the IDF’s moves and initiate action accordingly.
- De-equilibrium is, by definition, a temporary matter. As time passes, the impact of the inflicted blows weakens and operational cohesion returns. Restoring self-respect in the face of operational opportunities in the field may turn out to be a growing logic among the enemy forces in the south.
- Choosing a strategy that does not seek Hezbollah’s military defeat will inevitably leave the organization a military force in Lebanon.
If the risks inherent in points 1-4 materialize in several consecutive events, then the option of encirclement and ground decision of the Hezbollah army in the south should be realized quickly. It must be prepared for, both as an operational response and as a reserved threat to the enemy.
The fifth point concerns Israel’s strategy. At the moment, the strategy strives for the demobilization of South Lebanon not by force but by some kind of political agreement, apparently in the spirit of 1701 (the UN Security Council resolution that ended the Second Lebanon War). As we have bitter experience of the unreliability of foreign demobilization mechanisms, the true meaning of Israel’s strategy is that the current Lebanon War is not an end to the conflict with Hezbollah but simply a prelude to the next war.
Again, this is not necessarily a wrong strategy. Despite the achievements of the strikes in the summer, Hezbollah is not defeated, and its ground units in the south are certainly still capable of battle. Israel, meanwhile, is fighting in seven arenas. Also, to a significant degree, the prolongation of the war in Lebanon serves Hamas in Gaza, where the pressure has been eased. It is also difficult to see a clear ending mechanism for the direct war that has started between Iran and Israel. Each strategy has advantages and disadvantages, and the important thing is to understand them.
The current strategy strives to shorten the long war we have fallen into. The thinking underlying this strategy is that the current Lebanon war will not be the last. As ever, Hezbollah will prepare for the next war while learning from its failures in the current round. In the future, Israel will not be able to assume that a series of secret operations will provide it with the same benefits. It is also possible that the bank of targets will not be replenished at the same rate in light of information security lessons the enemy is now learning.
The current war is being waged while counter-terrorism tactics, such as eliminating senior commanders, are yielding surprising systemic achievements. But even with these successes, Israel is choosing not to take advantage of a rare opportunity to overwhelm Hezbollah’s army in the south. This choice does not show much self-confidence in the purely military field.
If the IDF is to defeat Hezbollah’s future military power in the south and learn lessons from the current war, it will have to be not only more determined but also more adaptable. The current Israeli caution stems, at least in part, from an understanding that on the military level, our forces are dangerously vulnerable to enemy capabilities and not effective enough to cleanse the south without sinking into an eternal guerilla war.
The current strategy may be successful. It is possible that we will return the residents of the north and reach an agreement. But such a success, should it occur, will mark not only the operational achievement of the covert and air strikes that landed on the enemy but also their limitations.
No one will dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon for us. And if a significant part of its power is preserved, its deterrence of Israel will improve, and Israel will not be able to enforce demilitarization by force. Hezbollah’s survival in defeat will simply turn over the hourglass for the next clash with a smarter enemy that is eager to restore its honor.
The current war marks, therefore, the opening of the race between the parties to prepare for the next war. This may be the decisive conflict not only in the north, but also for the future of the axis. The IDF must develop a clear and distinct military decision-making capacity — a military capacity, not just another list of methods of fighting terrorism.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Eran Ortal recently retired from military service as commander of the Dado Center for Multidisciplinary Military Thinking. His book The Battle Before the War (MOD 2022, in Hebrew) dealt with the IDF’s need to change, innovate and renew a decisive war approach. His next book, Renewal – The October 7th War and Israel’s Defense Strategy, is about to be published by Levin Publications. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post Israel Is Not Defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon – It’s Only Laying the Groundwork for the Next War first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Large Pro-Israel Event in Texas ‘Indefinitely Postponed’ Due to Threats of Terrorism
A protester holds a sign that reads, ”From the river to the sea Palestine will be free” during a pro-Palestinian emergency demonstration outside the Consulate General of Israel in Houston, Texas, on March 19, 2025. Photo: Reginald Mathalone via Reuters Connect
The 2025 Israel Summit in Dallas, Texas has been indefinitely postponed in response to what organizers described as intensifying threats of terrorism.
Prior to the cancellation, the event was expecting over 1,000 attendees. The Israel Summit had already undergone a last-minute venue change due to mounting safety concerns. The gathering, scheduled for June 9–11, was set to feature prominent voices from both the Jewish and Christian pro-Israel communities.
Former US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, who had been scheduled to speak at the event, commented on the cancellation on social media: “This is what America looks like in 2025. A peaceful pro-Israel gathering with more than a thousand participants had to be scrapped because of threats from violent extremists.”
Ten days prior to this year’s event, local police and intelligence officials in Dallas alerted organizers that the gathering had been upgraded to a “high-threat event.”
According to Josiah Hilton, host of the Israel Guys show, which was scheduled to co-host the event with HaYovel, the organizers had to produce “a mandatory security plan with a substantial budget estimated in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.”
The organizers then moved the Israel Summit to a facility in an isolated area of Kenneth, Texas. However, the event was forced to cancel after the Palestinian Youth Movement Dallas and Jewish Voice for Peace, a pair of anti-Israel, pro-Hamas organizations, revealed its location to their followers.
“[T]he Genocide Summit had to change plans last minute in desperation due to them claiming to be ‘under attack.’ The reality is they understand DFW’s commitment to confronting the extremist ideology that is Zionism,” Palestinian Youth Movement Dallas wrote on Instagram.
However, the organizers stated that they are going to hold the pro-Israel event “in the near future,” and vowed to “come back bigger and stronger, with more people.”
Hilton said that the cancellation reflects “the growing normalization of antisemitic threats and anti-Israel extremists, which are fueling intimidation and silencing voices of support for Israel across the United States.”
The cancellation of the Israel Summit also reflects growing concern regarding potential violence against supporters of the Jewish state. Last month, two Israeli embassy staffers, Yaron Lipschinsky and Sarah Milgrim, were murdered while exiting an event hosted by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) at the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, DC. Then this past Sunday, an assailant firebombed a pro-Israel rally in Boulder, Colorado, injuring 15 people and a dog.
The post Large Pro-Israel Event in Texas ‘Indefinitely Postponed’ Due to Threats of Terrorism first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Anti-Israel Animus, Propaganda Is Leading to Violence Against Jews, Experts Warn
Police officers gather on Pearl Street in front of the Boulder County Courthouse, the scene of an attack that injured multiple people, in Boulder, Colorado, US, June 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mark Makela
Hatred for Israel, often motivated by the spread of misinformation about the Jewish state’s history and conduct in Gaza, is fueling violence against Jews in the US and elsewhere, according to experts who spoke with The Algemeiner.
On Sunday, an assailant firebombed a pro-Israel rally with Molotov cocktails and a “makeshift” flamethrower in Boulder, Colorado, injuring 15 people ranging in age from 25 to 88 in what US authorities called a targeted terrorist attack. Egyptian national Mohamed Sabry Soliman, 45, was charged on Thursday with attempted murder and a slate of other crimes that could land him in jail for more than 600 years if convicted. Prosecutors say he yelled “Free Palestine” during the attack. The suspect also told investigators that he wanted to “kill all Zionist people,” according to court documents.
The Colorado firebombing came less than two weeks after a gunman murdered two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington, DC, while they were leaving an event at the Capital Jewish Museum hosted by the American Jewish Committee. The suspect charged for the double murder, 31-year-old Elias Rodriguez from Chicago, also yelled “Free Palestine” while being arrested by police after the shooting, according to video of the incident. The FBI affidavit supported the criminal charges against Rodriguez stated that he told law enforcement he “did it for Gaza.”
Such language targeting “Zionists” and calling to “Free Palestine” is identical to the rhetoric that has been widely uttered by anti-Israel activists on university campuses since the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas invaded southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and launched the war in Gaza.
Just two days after the Colorado attack, for example, Columbia University Apartheid Divest (CUAD), one of the most notorious anti-Israel campus groups, issued a call for its followers to confront a “group of zionists [sic]” at the City University of New York (CUNY) Graduate Center. It made a similar call to action the day before, charging that Pride Month festivities are “hijacked by Zionist pinkwashing.”
CUAD added, “LGBTQ+ rights can’t be weaponized to erase Palestinian genocide. Homonationalism isn’t freedom — it’s oppression with a rainbow flag. Real pride is standing against settler colonialism.”
The aim of such language, according to experts, is to deny Jewish history and the indigenousness of the Jewish people to the land of Israel while priming listeners to accept the notion that the existence of Israel is an illegitimate, imperialist project necessitating its destruction.
“Being a Zionist is to understand the Jews are a people, and as a people they have a shared ancestral heritage rooted in the land of Israel,” Alyza Lewin, president of the Louis D. Brandeis Center for Human Rights Under Law, told The Algemeiner. “If you’re going to say, ‘No, Israel has no right to exist,’ what you’re doing is asserting that Jews are not a people with no history in the land. Those who are peddling today’s modern antisemitism are rewriting history, both erasing and denying it.”
Prominent media outlets have amplified those who hold such beliefs, Lewin noted, fostering a sense that anti-Jewish hatred is acceptable and even honorable.
“The day before the assassination of [Yaron Lischinsky, 30, and Sarah Milgrim, 26, the victims of last month’s DC shooting], you had the blood libel claiming that 14,000 babies were going to be killed in Gaza spread by the United Nations and by several publications — it turned out of course to be completely false,” she explained.
“Just before this incident on Sunday [the Colorado firebombing], news media outlets, including the Washington Post, report that Israelis opened fire on Gazans as they collected humanitarian aid — which is also false, patently,” Lewin continued. “Certainly, you had campus groups spewing this kind of hatred and messaging for years, but now it’s even mainstream media doing so.”
Jonathan Schulman, executive director of the nonprofit group The Jewish Majority, agreed.
“You see a direct link between conspiracy theories and violence against the Jewish community,” he said. “Now we live in a world in which it is normalized to use the most extreme rhetoric against the Jewish community, and to accuse Jews of intentionally starving populations. You see Jews being accused of genocide, and the consequences, as described in a post I saw on [X/Twitter] are clear: Blood libel leads to blood in the streets.”
There have been several examples on university campuses of pro-Hamas and anti-Israel activists using language in an apparent effort to incite action against Zionists, many of which have been previously reported by The Algemeiner.
In November 2024, pro-Hamas activists at the University of California, Santa Barbara graffitied “Zionist not allowed” in an act of intimidation targeted at former student body president Tessa Veksler. In April 2023, months before the Oct. 7 massacre, Michal Cotler, Israel’s special envoy for combatting antisemitism, was greeted with flyers that said, “Zionism out of NYU!” and claimed that “Israel is an apartheid state.” During the 2023-2024 academic year at Stanford University a Jewish student was repeatedly called a “Zionist, Nazi pig.” In February 2025, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine called for a “future free of Zionism” following its vandalism of the home of a Jewish member of the UC Board of Regents, the governing body of the University of California system.
Antisemitism in the US is surging to break “all previous annual records,” according to chilling data released in the Anti-Defamation League’s (ADL) latest Audit of Antisemitic Incidents in April.
The ADL recorded 9,354 antisemitic incidents last year — an average of 25.6 a day — across the US, creating an atmosphere of hate not experienced in the nearly thirty years since the organization began tracking such data in 1979. Incidents of harassment, vandalism, and assault all increased by double digits, and for the first time ever a majority of outrages — 58 percent — were related to the existence of Israel as the world’s only Jewish state.
The Algemeiner parsed the ADL’s data, finding dramatic rises in incidents on college campuses, which saw the largest growth in 2024. The 1,694 incidents tallied by the ADL amounted to an 84 percent increase over the previous year. Additionally, antisemites were emboldened to commit more offenses in public in 2024 than they did in 2023, perpetrating 19 percent more attacks on Jewish people, pro-Israel demonstrators, and businesses perceived as being Jewish-owned or affiliated with Jews.
“This horrifying level of antisemitism should never be accepted and yet, as our data shows, it has become a persistent and grim reality for American Jewish communities,” ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt said in a statement. “Jewish Americans continue to be harassed, assaulted, and targeted for who they are on a daily basis and everywhere they go. But let’s be clear: we will remain proud of our Jewish culture, religion, and identities, and we will not be intimidated by bigots.”
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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James Carville Accuses Jewish Donors of Using Antisemitism to Abandon Democrats: ‘Just Want Their F—king Tax Cut’
James Carville speaks on the “Politics War Room” podcast. Photo: Screenshot
James Carville, a prominent political commentator and campaign strategist for the Democratic Party, this week accused “wealthy Jewish” donors of using campus antisemitism as an excuse not to give money to Democrats, claiming what they really want are a “f—king tax cut” from Republicans.
On his “Politics War Room” podcast, Carville told co-host Al Hunt that some wealthy Jewish donors are citing examples of antisemitism on university campuses amid the Gaza war as reasons to stop donating to the Democratic Party.
“I hear this all the time. You’ve got to try and raise money from really wealthy Jewish fundraisers. And they say, look, James, I’m a Democrat, but I can’t be a part of a party because of what happened at Columbia [University in New York City],” Carville said.
Columbia has become a hotbed of pro-Hamas activism since the Palestinian terrorist group’s Oct. 7, 2023, massacre across southern Israel.
“What the f—k did the Democrats have to do with what happened in Columbia, by the way?” Carville continued. “But you know, because they have some students at Columbia generally made an ass of themselves, well, I can’t do that, but I can be for a party that everybody endorses the Alternative for Deutschland (referring to the far-right AfD party in Germany).”
Carville then argued that these wealthy donors just want tax cuts from Republicans.
“My instinct is, and they tell me that, they look me right in the eye,” he said. “No, you just want your f—ucking tax cut.”
The longtime political strategist stressed that his comments are not aimed at “most Jewish people” but doubled down on his comment regarding tax cuts.
“That doesn’t apply to most people, most Jewish people see right through that, but the ones that don’t see through it, they just don’t really, at the end of the day, they just want their f—king tax cut. And you can see it every day.”
James Carville launches into an unhinged rant, accusing wealthy Jewish donors of not wanting to give him money for the Democrat Party at fundraisers over rampant college campus anti-Semitism. Carville claims Jews will vote for Nazis just to “get their f-cking tax cuts.” pic.twitter.com/gM5EYHWlaQ
— Bad Hombre (@joma_gc) June 5, 2025
Carville’s comments prompted immediate backlash online, with critics accusing the political commentator of parroting antisemitic narratives regarding Jewish people and money.
Carville, the lead strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign, has repeatedly condemned the Democratic Party for alienating working-class Americans by advancing culturally progressive values. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party has generally been much more critical of Israel since Hamas’s invasion, in many cases championing the anti-Israel demonstrations on college campuses.
This is not the first time that Carville’s comments have angered many within the Jewish community. In August 2024, Carville he drew outrage after he said that the American supports Israel over Palestinians because they are “whiter.” Roughly half of Israeli Jews are Mizrahi — Jews who can trace their ethnic origins to the Middle East and North Africa.
Some pro-Israel supporters have argued that a rift has grown between the Democratic Party and Israel in the 19 months following the Hamas-led massacre of 1,200 people and abduction of 251 hostages throughout the southern region of the Jewish state.
Since the conflcit began, Democratic lawmakers have become increasingly critical of Israel’s approach to the Gaza war. Although Democrats have repeatedly reiterated that Israel has a right to “defend itself,” many have raised concerns over the Jewish state’s conduct in the war in Gaza, reportedly exerting private pressure on former US President Joe Biden to adopt a more adversarial stance against Israel and display more public sympathy for the Palestinians. In November, 17 Democratic senators voted to impose a partial arms embargo on Israel, sparking outrage among supporters of the Jewish state.
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