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A Loss in Ukraine Would Grievously Harm America

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Photo: Reuters/Maxim Shemetov

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has posed a direct challenge to the national sovereignty of an independent country, just as it continues to lead to extensive suffering, especially due to the attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Yet beyond these direct consequences for Ukraine and the Ukrainians, the invasion represents nothing less than an assault on the established international order, an effort to redraw recognized state borders through the use of force. Such a threat is also a challenge to the United States, as the primary guarantor of that order — one of many reasons why Washington has interests in the outcome.

The specifics of Moscow’s goals have remained ambiguous. Some statements by President Putin provide evidence that one maximalist war goal includes the complete obliteration of Ukraine as an independent polity altogether, far more than limited effort to adjust borders or to support the Russian population exclaves in the Donbas. The ultimate outcome may be less — something in between — e.g., seizing the Black Sea coast while leaving a landlocked Ukraine as a pseudo-independent state surrounded by Russia. In any case, the abrogation of international legal norms is profound.

In addition, the violation of Ukrainian national sovereignty — whatever the ultimate outcome — goes against the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, when Ukraine surrendered its Soviet-era nuclear arms in return for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and the UK. Consequently, a further casualty of the war pertains to nuclear non-proliferation. In the future, no state will be inclined to give up its nuclear weapons in return for diplomatic guarantees that can turn out to be worthless, as Ukraine has had to learn.

One grand achievement of the late 20th century was the establishment of a zone of international law guaranteeing the national sovereignty of the states across the larger European space. The lessons of two world wars and the Cold War seemed to have been learned. This is no longer the case.

Russia has shown that international borders are again just as vulnerable as was the Polish border to the German invasion of September 1939. An awareness that Europe must prepare for war, if hopefully to prevent it, has begun to spread across the continent, as evidenced by German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech to the Bundestag of February 27, 2022.

If the Federal Republic of Germany can begin, albeit sluggishly, to overcome its historical pacifism, so can others. Poland has emerged as a particularly strong military power. More NATO member nations are moving toward devoting the 2% of GDP to security, to which they obligated themselves in the Wales Pledge of 2014, and Sweden and Finland have joined the alliance.

To be sure, Russia has not been able to achieve victory. The limits of its military power have been exposed, and the domestic stability of the Putin dictatorship is far from guaranteed. Nonetheless, Ukraine has not been able to deliver a decisive counter-blow. Russia might yet win. It is therefore prudent to consider the geostrategic consequences of a conclusion that involves Russian gains.

A Russian capture of the coast from Crimea to Transnistria would turn the Black Sea into a Russian-Turkish condominium, leading to stronger ties between Ankara and Moscow, and therefore loosening Turkey’s ties to NATO.

Russian domination in Ukraine would also strengthen Moscow’s hand in Central Asia, while accelerating its partnerships with Iran and China, the new anti-American axis. Furthermore, if Russia prevails in Ukraine, one should expect Moscow to pursue interests in the already flammable Balkans, at which point the European order will be further undermined.

Would the fall of Kyiv lead to another Sarajevo and the historical conflagration indelibly associated with the name of that city? That is a worst case scenario, but in the era of great power competition, in which Putin himself has engaged in nuclear saber-rattling, there is reason enough to face up to the really-existing dangers.

Leaving aside the values considerations — the human rights violations and war crimes faced by the Ukrainians — and even leaving aside the international law implications of the Russian invasion, it is vital that the United States take very seriously the expansionist ambitions of a revanchist Russia intent on asserting itself throughout parts of the formerly Soviet world and, in particular, into the heart of Europe.

Conquering Ukraine is a steppingstone to undermining NATO and the Atlanticist security structure. It is therefore hardly surprising that the US has decried the invasion and provided Ukraine with considerable aid to counter Russia.

Yet this support has been insufficient. Initially the American public rallied to support Ukraine, and that popular support seems initially to have pushed a cautious Biden administration to lean into aiding Ukraine more vigorously. But the war has dragged on, and some war-weariness has set it in. Biden himself has failed to make effective use of his bully pulpit to make the strong case for supporting Ukraine, with the result that public opinion has begun to flag, with isolationist strands on the left and the right gaining ground

In addition, unspoken limits to military aid have become evident. Ukrainian requests for specific systems have first been turned down as impracticable, only to be granted belatedly. In other words, for all the American verbal willingness to support Ukraine, the arms provided have been sometimes too late, sometimes too little, and sometimes too old.

For a while it seemed that the Biden administration was only providing sufficient support for the Ukrainians to keep them fighting but not enough to achieve victory. This hesitation reflects indecision in the administration concerning the risks in achieving a clear Russian defeat. Does Washington prefer vacillation to victory? There is no evidence of a commitment to win the competition with Russia — in the sense of former President Reagan’s spirited formula “we win, they lose.” It is Ukraine that is paying the price for this timidity toward Moscow.

It is useful, if worrisome, to consider US policy at this point toward the Ukraine War against the backdrop of the conclusion of the Afghanistan War. The differences are obviously enormous; most importantly, Afghanistan involved an international effort led by the US, at enormous cost in blood and treasure. President Trump was therefore focused on bringing that war to an end, and his administration agreed on a process with the Taliban to wind it down . There is an argument that President Biden was not obligated to carry through with that Trump-era agreement because the Taliban had not lived up to the terms it had promised. Nonetheless Biden did choose to withdraw the American troops in a way that the world has come to recognize as an embarrassing defeat.

Losing in Ukraine — like the loss in Afghanistan — would represent an enormous blow to American credibility as a force for security and stability across the world. The implications for Taiwan and other western Pacific nations will be clear. It is this geostrategic map that shows why it is vital for the proxy forces of the West in Ukraine to prevail, just as they must in Gaza.

The US is fortunate to have partners willing to fight for their own defense, but it is crucial for Washington to provide support. Insufficient backing will have grievous implications for American interests.

Russell A. Berman is a Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor at Stanford University. He previously served as Senior Advisor on the Policy Planning Staff of the US Department of State under President Trump. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.

The post A Loss in Ukraine Would Grievously Harm America first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Hezbollah Says Lebanon Move on Army Plan Is ‘Opportunity,’ Urges Israel to Commit to Ceasefire

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and members of the cabinet stand as they attend a cabinet session to discuss the army’s plan to disarm Hezbollah, at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon, September 5, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Hezbollah official Mahmoud Qmati told Reuters on Saturday that the group considered Friday’s cabinet session on an army plan to establish a state monopoly on arms “an opportunity to return to wisdom and reason, preventing the country from slipping into the unknown.”

Lebanon’s cabinet on Friday welcomed a plan by the army that would disarm Hezbollah and said the military would begin executing it, without setting a timeframe for implementation and cautioning that the army had limited capabilities.

But it said continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon would hamper the army’s progress. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Lebanese information minister Paul Morcos stopped short of saying the cabinet had formally approved the plan.

Qmati told Reuters that Hezbollah had reached its assessment based on the government’s declaration on Friday that further implementation of a US roadmap on the matter was dependent on Israel’s commitment. He said that without Israel halting strikes and withdrawing its troops from southern Lebanon, Lebanon’s implementation of the plan should remain “suspended until further notice.”

Lebanon’s cabinet last month tasked the army with coming up with a plan that would establish a state monopoly on arms and approved a US roadmap aimed at disarming Hezbollah in exchange for a halt to Israeli military operations in Lebanon.

Qmati said that Hezbollah “unequivocally rejected” those two decisions and expected the Lebanese government to draw up a national defense strategy.

Israel last week signaled it would scale back its military presence in southern Lebanon if the army took action to disarm Hezbollah. Meanwhile, it has continued its strikes, killing four people on Wednesday.

A national divide over Hezbollah’s disarmament has taken center stage in Lebanon since last year’s devastating war with Israel, which upended a power balance long dominated by the Iran-backed Shi’ite Muslim group.

Lebanon is under pressure from the US, Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah’s domestic rivals to disarm the group. But Hezbollah has pushed back, saying it would be a serious misstep to even discuss disarmament while Israel continues its air strikes on Lebanon and occupies swathes of territory in the south.

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem last month raised the specter of civil war, warning the government against trying to confront the group and saying street protests were possible.

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UK Police Arrest Dozens at Latest Protest for Banned Palestine Action

Demonstrators attend the “Lift The Ban” rally organised by Defend Our Juries, challenging the British government’s proscription of “Palestine Action” under anti-terrorism laws, in Parliament Square, in London, Britain, September 6, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Jasso

British police arrested dozens more people on Saturday under anti-terrorism laws for demonstrating in support of Palestine Action, a pro-Palestinian group banned by the government as a terrorist organization.

Britain banned Palestine Action under anti-terrorism legislation in July after some of its members broke into a Royal Air Force base and damaged military planes. The group accuses Britain’s government of complicity in what it says are Israeli war crimes in Gaza.

Police have arrested hundreds of Palestine Action supporters in recent weeks under anti-terrorism legislation, including over 500 in just one day last month, many of them over the age of 60.

On Saturday, hundreds of demonstrators gathered near parliament in central London to protest against the ban on Saturday, with many holding up signs that said: “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action.”

London’s Metropolitan Police said officers had begun arresting those expressing support for Palestine Action. Police did not say how many arrests were made but a Reuters witness said dozens of people were detained.

Palestine Action’s ban, or proscription, puts the group alongside al-Qaeda and ISIS and makes it a crime to support or belong to the organization, punishable by up to 14 years in prison.

“I can be unequivocal, if you show support for Palestine Action – an offense under the Terrorism Act – you will be arrested,” Met Deputy Assistant Commissioner Ade Adelekan said on Friday. “We have the officer numbers, custody capacity and all other resources to process as many people as is required.”

Human rights groups have criticized Britain’s decision to ban the group as disproportionate and say it limits the freedom of expression of peaceful protesters.

The government has accused Palestine Action of causing millions of pounds worth of criminal damage and says the ban does not prevent other pro-Palestinian protests.

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Macron’s Meeting with American Jewry ‘Won’t Happen’ Amid Palestinian Recognition Drive, Surge in Antisemitism

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference in Paris, France, June 12, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Stephane Mahe

i24 NewsFrench President Emmanuel Macron attempted to set up a meeting with American Jewish leaders later this month on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

i24NEWS has learned that the meeting won’t happen, firstly because Macron was only available for the meeting ahead of the UN General Assembly during Rosh Hashanah, and yet, a person invited to meet with Macron and who has knowledge of the discussions told i24NEWS the sit-down simply wasn’t going to happen, anyway.

“I think the organizations, for the most part, would not have participated,” the person said, adding that AIPAC, the Anti-Defamation League and the American Jewish Committee would have likely received invitations, among other entities.

“The guy has a 15% popularity rating in France. It’s not our job to help him out,” the person said.

Asked by i24NEWS whether Macron’s push for greater Palestinian state recognition or his lack of action in tackling antisemitism at home led to the stance of organized American Jewry, the person said it’s more of “the climate” which allows one to say ‘Look, the American Jews met with me,’ regardless of the content.”

The person said they are sure, if a meeting would have happened, that everybody in the room would have taken a hard line with Macron, including his “statements on Israel, the failure to respond to antisemitism” and France’s announcement this summer that it will recognize a Palestinian state later this month, and is leading an effort to get more countries to do the same.

But, the person told i24NEWS they are convinced that, in the end, while no final decision actually had to be taken, there was enough pressure that a consensus would have been reached to decline the meeting.

Of the timing of Rosh Hashanah allowing for leadership to not be forced to officially say no to Macron, the person said “G-d saves us every time.”

Another source familiar with the matter noted that it cannot be ruled out that Macron may eventually succeed in arranging a meeting with certain representatives, as the organizations are not a single unified body. However, he is unlikely to be welcomed by the overwhelming majority of groups representing American Jewry.

i24NEWS has also learned that French President Emmanuel Macron explored the possibility of visiting Israel ahead of the convention, but was advised by the Prime Minister’s Office that the timing was inappropriate. The message came as Macron continues to push for recognition of a Palestinian state, a move Israel strongly opposes. Sources further told i24NEWS that Israel is weighing additional retaliatory measures against Macron, including the potential closure of the French consulate in Jerusalem, which primarily serves Palestinians in the West Bank.

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