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Any Hostage Swap Would Be a Terrible Mistake for Israel
An Israeli soldier keeps guard next to an entrance to what the Israeli military say is a cross-border attack tunnel dug from Gaza to Israel, on the Israeli side of the Gaza Strip border near Kissufim, Jan. 18, 2018. Photo: REUTERS/Jack Guez/Pool
Until the end of the 1970s, Israel’s policy on hostages, prisoners, and missing persons was based on national considerations. The Entebbe Doctrine permitted no negotiations with terrorist organizations that involved comprehensive deals for the mass release of prisoners, because doing so would amount to a surrender to terror.
Israeli hostages would be released either through operational means, local negotiations, or prisoner exchanges after fighting was concluded. But over the past four decades, ever since the Jibril Agreement of 1985, there has been a change in Israel’s policy on this matter, to involve wholesale prisoner releases. This has caused Israel profound strategic damage.
Negotiating with Hamas for the release of the hostages in Gaza through comprehensive, all-inclusive deals mediated by Qatar (“everyone for everyone”) would undermine Israel’s strategy in the Swords of Iron war. It’s time to make a fundamental change in Israel’s policy on this issue and readopt the Entebbe Doctrine, which can save the lives of the current hostages and prevent the taking of more in the future.
Before I address this difficult issue, I want to make clear that my heart goes out to the hostages in Gaza and their families.
Decisions affecting human lives that are made on the national level have to be based on risk management. Thus, decisions about safety measures, COVID lockdowns, the prevention of deadly infections in hospitals, medication availability, the combating of crime, and others are all based on risk assessments. Public opinion and political pressures factor into these assessments, but they are not usually the predominant factors.
Not so in security. In recent decades, a “shadow principle” has entered Israeli security theory that prioritizes the minimizing of casualties and the creation of “absolute security” above all other considerations. This principle represents a shift from national security to personal security.
The Israeli security organizations obsessively focused on preventing any casualties, and a public discourse requiring “a thorough investigation of every casualty” was enforced. All of this transformed security thinking into straw thinking that was centered on local and tactical risk, making it difficult to see the holistic broader picture.
This kind of thinking collapsed on October 7, and a clear shift back in the direction of national security doctrine is evident.
However, on one critical issue, there hasn’t been sufficient change in the management of security risks: the issue of hostages and missing persons. Ever since the Jibril Agreement of 1985, the obsessive national focus on captives and missing persons has undermined the national security foundations of Israel.
The Second Lebanon War began due to Hezbollah’s kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and killing of three others, and Operation Cast Lead was launched in part to secure the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who had been in Hamas captivity for five years. Israel released 1,027 security prisoners in exchange for Shalit, including 280 who were serving life sentences for terrorism against Israeli targets. In addition, the prisoners who were released as part of the Jibril deal were active in the first intifada.
The issue of captives and missing persons has become the Achilles’ heel of Israel’s national security. It makes us vulnerable in the eyes of our enemies, weakens our regional status in the eyes of potential allies, and is baffling to our international and regional partners, particularly the Americans.
There are many reasons why it is bad for the nation to negotiate the release of captives as part of a comprehensive deal:
Damage to Israeli strategy: Israel’s strategy in the Swords of Iron war is based on the collapse of the Hamas organization in Gaza and the neutralizing of its leadership and military capabilities. These goals cannot coexist with a mass prisoner exchange negotiation, which would constitute a continuation of Israel’s recognition of Hamas as a force on the ground and a legitimate entity.
Damage to Israeli military operations: The IDF faces a tough and sophisticated enemy that has been preparing for this conflict for many years. Only military actions that maintain their strength and pace, effectively destabilizing the enemy and putting it off balance, will lead to the achievement of Israel’s goals with the lowest possible casualty count. Hesitation, delay, or a cessation of military action resulting from prisoner negotiation would likely have operational consequences.
Damage to moral clarity: Hamas, which has committed crimes against humanity and has genocidal aspirations similar to those of the Nazis, has disqualified itself as a legitimate partner for negotiations. By agreeing to conduct negotiations with them anyway, Israel would, in effect, be restoring their international legitimacy and negating Israel’s claims against other countries around the world, such as Russia, on this matter. The release of those involved in the operation on October 7 in an exchange deal would also damage the argument that they had participated in crimes against humanity. Those terrorists, as well as those captured in Gaza, should be brought to trial, with the death penalty hanging over their heads.
The erosion of the positions of Israel and the US in the Middle East: After the events of October 7, the collapse of Hamas is essential for the restoration of Israel’s position – and, consequently, the standing of the United States — in the Middle East. It forms the basis for Israel’s continued partnerships with Saudi Arabia and moderate states. The realization of a comprehensive mass prisoner-exchange deal would adversely affect both.
Hamas doesn’t really want a deal: Hamas understands that its very existence is at stake. Its continued hold on the hostages has one object: to use endless negotiation in order to undermine the dismantling of its political and military power.
There is no “everyone for everyone”: Hamas has only partial knowledge of which hostages are located where in the Gaza Strip and what condition they are in. For Hamas to organize the exchanges, it would need several weeks of quiet organization to locate them all. Israel cannot allow this for the reasons mentioned. Moreover, prisoners who subsequently fell into Hamas’ hands as the fighting continued would open the question of negotiations all over again. There will be no end to this unless Israel puts a stop to it. On top of these considerations, the mass release of Hamas prisoners would have significant and obvious security implications of its own.
A strict ban on joining the humanitarian effort: The humanitarian effort is a condition for Israel’s strategic ability to undermine Hamas politically and militarily. Connecting it to the issue of the hostages must be avoided.
For all these reasons, continuing negotiations for a deal for the hostages that includes the release of Hamas prisoners would be a serious strategic mistake on Israel’s part. In the management of national risks, there is no logic justifying the continuation of negotiations like this, which goes against all the above considerations.
Israel can create a historic change in the issue of captives and missing persons. A clear approach has the potential to fundamentally alter this area by achieving these goals:
Sending a vital message to Israel’s allies: Israel would be sending this message: “We are a Western and liberal nation committed to the welfare of our citizens as well as the citizens of other countries. We have conducted an examination of all the options available to rescue the hostages. We understand that this issue is being used as a strategic card against us to divert us from our main goal of the complete military and administrative dismantling of the Hamas organization, which commits crimes against humanity against us and against others. From this point forward, we will not engage in comprehensive negotiations for the release of captives with such an organization as it has disqualified itself as a legitimate negotiating partner.”
Enhancing international and Israeli pressure on countries engaging in dialogue with the Hamas leadership to secure the release of the hostages, with an emphasis on foreign nationals, civilians in general, the elderly, women, and children.
Spurring on-the-ground activity to promote the release of hostages.
Encouraging local deals for the release of hostages.
Promoting a process for locating hostages and conducting prisoner exchanges with the new regime in Gaza after the war is over.
This new approach by Israel would amount to a long-term strategic shift regarding the issue of captives and missing persons and a reversal of the ongoing serious damage caused by extensive deals with terrorists. The old approach caused Israel considerable harm. The new one has the potential to rescue the current hostages and prevent new cycles of abductions.
Col. (Res.) Shay Shabtai is a senior researcher at the BESA Center, an expert in national security, strategic planning and strategic communication. Cyber defense strategist and consultant to leading companies in Israel. Shay is about to finish his doctorate at Bar-Ilan University. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post Any Hostage Swap Would Be a Terrible Mistake for Israel first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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UN Refuses to Blame Hezbollah for Attacking Peacekeepers in Lebanon
UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) vehicles drive in Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, southern Lebanon, Oct. 11, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
The United Nations announced on Tuesday that four Ghanaian peacekeepers were wounded “most likely by non-state actors within Lebanon,” noticeably omitting any reference to the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah, which wields significant influence across the country and was identified by Israeli forces as responsible for the rocket attack.
“Four Ghanaian peacekeepers on duty sustained injuries as a rocket — fired most likely by non-State actors within Lebanon — hit their base ‘UNP 5-42’ in the east of the village of Ramyah,” the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said in a statement.
The UN force added that its “peacekeepers and facilities were targeted in three separate incidents in south Lebanon.” The attacks were so severe that three peacekeepers were transferred to a local hospital, UNIFIL noted.
The peacekeeping mission added that its “Sector West Headquarters” in the southern Lebanese village of Shama also endured an attack from several rockets on Tuesday, adding that no peacekeepers were physically harmed.
UNIFIL claimed that one of its bases has been targeted by so-called “non-state actors” twice over the past week. In addition, the international force said that “when a UNIFIL patrol was passing through a road northeast of the village of Khirbat Silim, an armed person directly fired at the patrol”
“The pattern of regular attacks — direct or indirect — against peacekeepers must end immediately,” UNIFIL concluded.
The UN force’s apparent refusal to name Hezbollah received widespread scrutiny on social media, where many users noted that the Iran-backed terrorist organization has been involved in active combat near UNIFIL facilities and is by far the most powerful and widespread non-state actor in Lebanon.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Tuesday that Hezbollah was responsible for the rocket attacks on both Ramyah and Shama.
According to the IDF, the UNIFIL base in Shama, was hit by several rockets launched by Hezbollah from the Maaliyeh area. A source from Italy’s defense ministry told AFP that “Hezbollah was responsible for the attack,” which involved eight rockets hitting the headquarters of the Italian contingent of UNIFL. No injuries were reported.
Last month, the IDF said that Hezbollah had fired dozens of rockets and missiles at Israeli communities and forces from terrorist compounds embedded near UNIFIL posts in southern Lebanon. Israeli officials have repeatedly warned UN peacekeepers that Hezbollah is weaponizing their presence in the Iran-backed terrorist organization’s war against the Jewish state, using them as human shields.
Despite its omission of Hezbollah, UNIFIL has not shied away from calling out Israel for allegedly attacking peacekeepers in the region.
In an October statement bemoaning “escalation” of violence in southern Lebanon, the UN force stated that “rockets continue to be launched towards Israel” without naming Hezbollah, which has been targeting northern Israel with barrages of rockets, missiles, and drones for the past year. However, in the next sentence, UNIFIL blasted “incursions from Israel into Lebanon.” The mission also condemned the IDF for allegedly firing “its weapon toward an observation tower at UNIFIL’s headquarters.”
Israeli officials have long accused the UN more broadly of having a bias against the Jewish state. Last year, the UN General Assembly condemned Israel twice as often as it did all other countries. Meanwhile, of all the country-specific resolutions passed by the UNHRC, nearly half have condemned Israel, a seemingly disproportionate focus on the lone democracy in the Middle East.
Weeks following last year’s Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, the UN adopted a resolution calling for a “ceasefire” between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist group. The UN failed to pass a measure condemning the Hamas atrocities.
On Tuesday, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric de la Rivière refused to assign blame to any party for allegedly ransacking and looting 90 humanitarian aid trucks in Gaza. Hamas, which rules Gaza, has a long history of stealing humanitarian aid intended for the civilians of the beleaguered enclave, although it’s unclear who was responsible for the recent looting.
“When people, when armed people, try to take over control of a vehicle and goods, we’re not asking questions and they’re not wearing insignias,” he said to reporters.
The spokesperson added that the UN will not accept any security from Israel, stating that its employees would be “an even greater target if we were surrounded by armed soldiers.” Nonetheless, he insisted that the Jewish state still “has a responsibility” to ensure that the UN’s workers and humanitarian aid are safe.
The post UN Refuses to Blame Hezbollah for Attacking Peacekeepers in Lebanon first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Netanyahu, in Gaza, Vows Retribution for Those Who Harm Hostages, Offers Safe Passage and Reward for Info
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a memorial ceremony for those murdered by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and those who fell in the “Iron Sword” war, at the Knesset, the Parliament, in Jerusalem, Oct. 28, 2024. Photo: DEBBIE HILL/Pool via REUTERS
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed during a trip to Gaza on Tuesday to “hunt down” terrorists who harmed the hostages being held in the Palestinian enclave, offering a hefty financial reward and safe passage for anyone willing to provide information leading to an abductee’s return.
“To those who are holding our hostages: Anyone who dares to harm our hostages will have blood on their head. We will hunt you down and get you,” Netanyahu said in a video in Hebrew recorded on Gaza’s beach along the Mediterranean Sea.
However, the Israeli premier added, “whoever brings us a hostage will be given a safe way, for him and his family, to leave. We will also give a reward of $5 million for each kidnapped person. You choose — the choice is yours — but the result will be the same. We’ll get them all back.”
ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו ושר הביטחון ישראל כ”ץ, יחד עם הרמטכ”ל רב אלוף הרצי הלוי וראש השב”כ רונן בר ביקרו היום מסדרון נצרים שבעזה.
ראש הממשלה נתניהו: “החמאס לא יהיה יותר בעזה. מי שיעז לפגוע בחטופינו – דמו בראשו. נרדוף ונשיג אתכם.” pic.twitter.com/EwFB2hd9aE
— ראש ממשלת ישראל (@IsraeliPM_heb) November 19, 2024
Netanyahu made the comments during a visit to the Netzarim Corridor, which splits Gaza between north and south, along with Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, and Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) director Ronen Bar.
“Hamas will no longer be in Gaza,” Netanyahu said, vowing that the Palestinian terrorist group that had ruled Gaza won’t have a future role governing the enclave, which borders southern Israel. He added that Israel had destroyed the Islamist group’s military capabilities.
Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists launched the ongoing war with their invasion of southern Israel last Oct. 7. During the onslaught, the terrorists murdered 1,200 people, wounded thousands more, and kidnapped over 250 hostages while perpetrating mass sexual violence against the Israeli people.
Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities.
Katz said on Tuesday that the return of the 101 hostages still being held by Hamas terrorists remains the “most important mission,” promising that Israel will “complete its mission” in Gaza.
“We need to make sure that Hamas does not rule here ‘the day after,’” he added.
On Monday, Netanyahu reportedly told the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of Israeli’s parliament, known as the Knesset, that he believes about 50 of the 101 remaining hostages in Gaza are still alive.
The remarks came after Netanyahu on Sunday called an emergency meeting following Hamas’s rejection of all proposals for ceasefires and hostage release deals currently on the table, according to Israel’s Channel 13 News.
Hamas’s leadership has severed all contact with those actually holding the hostages for security reasons “to protect the important negotiation card,” the Qatari-owned Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news outlet reported this week, citing a Hamas source.
Talks over a potential ceasefire and hostage release deal brokered by the US, Egypt, and Qatar have floundered in recent weeks, with American officials questioning whether Hamas wants an agreement. The terrorist group has insisted any arrangement must include an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, an outcome that Jerusalem firmly opposes until its war goals are achieved.
The post Netanyahu, in Gaza, Vows Retribution for Those Who Harm Hostages, Offers Safe Passage and Reward for Info first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel’s Operations in Lebanon Enabling Steps to Return Displaced Citizens to Their Homes: Think Tanks
Smoke billows over Khiam, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as pictured from Marjayoun, near the border with Israel, Oct. 29, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Karamallah Daher
Israel’s expanded military operations against the Iran-backed terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon have enabled Jerusalem to take steps to return displaced Israeli citizens to their homes in the northern part of the country, according to researchers at two leading US think tanks.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in conjunction with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (CTP), explained the developments on Sunday in their daily Iran Update, “which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests.”
According to the report, “Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] has removed all military checkpoints and roadblocks on roads near the Israel-Lebanon border that have been closed to civilians over the past year.”
This was able to happen because of Israeli operations in Lebanon that have reduced the threat of anti-tank fire and other munitions targeting northern Israel.
“The IDF’s re-opening of roads along the border,” ISW and CTP explained, “indicates that the IDF has assessed that Israeli operations have significantly reduced the threat of anti-tank fire and other short-range munitions enough to allow civilians to return to previously targeted areas.”
Specifically, it has been Israel’s ground operations in Lebanon, and “control of Lebanese territory” that have led to these steps, according to an IDF official who spoke to Israeli Army Radio.
In mid-September, the Israeli war cabinet expanded its war goals to include returning tens of thousands of Israeli citizens to their homes in the north after they were forced to flee amid unrelenting fire from Hezbollah in neighboring southern Lebanon.
“The possibility for an agreement is running out as Hezbollah continues to tie itself to Hamas, and refuses to end the conflict,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at the time. “Therefore, the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action.”
On Oct. 8, 2023, Hezbollah joined Hamas’s war on Israel, pummeling northern Israeli communities almost daily with barrages of drones, rockets, and missiles from southern Lebanon, where it wields significant political and military influence. One such attack killed 12 children in the small Druze town of Majdal Shams.
About 70,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate Israel’s north during that time due to the unrelenting attacks. Most of them have spent the past 13 months living in hotels in other areas of the country.
Since Israel began its widened campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, it has achieved major successes. It has taken out the entire top echelon of Hezbollah, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, along with his successor. This, along with other successful operations, has put significant pressure on Hezbollah to come to a diplomatic agreement to end hostilities — which could happen in the coming weeks.
The post Israel’s Operations in Lebanon Enabling Steps to Return Displaced Citizens to Their Homes: Think Tanks first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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