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As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program

Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

JNS.orgAs Iran’s regional proxies continue to weaken, and with Tehran mere weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, there is more and more focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities, although there is no public evidence that it has decided to break out to a bomb.

Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the alarming progress, telling JNS that it was important to distinguish between Iran’s fissile material and the actual work of building a nuclear bomb.

“Regarding fissile material, they are very, very close. Within two to three weeks, they can enrich enough for three nuclear devices, and after that, for three more within a few weeks,” she said.

The next stage, she said, would be to create sufficient missile material at the 90% enrichment level and upwards.

The next step, Shine explained, would be to create a nuclear warhead, which would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.

Regarding such a decision, Shine noted that there has been chatter in recent months within Iran—not necessarily from senior regime leaders but rather former senior members—about the need to modify Iran’s security and nuclear doctrine, while other voices have argued the opposite. “There is a very discernable dialogue about this,” said Shine.

Ultimately, the decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, she said, adding that Iran cannot be sure that any decision to break through would not result in an attack on its atomic facilities. Still, the possibility of an Iranian nuclear breakout due to events of the war raging between Israel and Iran’s proxies, their weakening, and the Iranian direct attacks on Israel and Israeli responses could strengthen the camp in Iran that believes that nuclear force is the ultimate deterrent, said Shine.

“The Iranians know how to do this technologically. There is no doubt about that,” she added. The key obstacle is whether Iran’s leadership will choose to cross the threshold.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, echoed these concerns.

Kuperwasser is currently a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.

He pointed out that while Iran has made significant advances, there is no concrete evidence that the regime has made a final decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. “We don’t have proof that this is happening,” he said.

According to Kuperwasser, Iran’s strategy could be influenced by the weakening of its proxy forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, who have suffered massive blows from Israel. “Hezbollah has been significantly weakened,” he noted, adding that this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.

“In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now,” said Kuperwasser. “At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.”

“It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment,” he added.

An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.

Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.

 Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.

Beyond uranium enrichment and weaponization, Iran has continued testing ballistic-missile delivery systems, the BICOM report said.

The post As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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AOC Compares Israel-Hamas War to Vietnam, Says Conflict Has Been ‘Generationally Radicalizing’

US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Photo: Mike Jourdan/Flickr.

During an interview on left-wing internet talk show The Majority Report, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) agreed that the ongoing conflict in Gaza is comparable to the Vietnam War, arguing that America’s strident support of Israel has radicalized younger Americans. 

While interviewing AOC, The Majority Report host Sam Seder argued that the Israel-Hamas war is “akin” to the Vietnam War. Seder suggested that “alternative media” such as TikTok, Youtube, or podcasts, have presented a harshly critical view of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, resulting in a wide-scale radicalization of young people against the Jewish state. 

If you’re under the age of 40 what’s gone on in Israel is in Palestine and Gaza in particular obviously and the West Bank for that matter is very different from your perception if you’re over the age of 40 because of where you get your media,” Seder said. 

AOC agreed, saying that she has “said this directly to Democratic leadership” and “ communicated this to the White House.” 

“This is our Vietnam. This is our, not just like in terms of the party, but this is just our country’s Vietnam. And what I think a lot of people do not yet understand, is they think that some of these hemorrhages are maybe ideological. They think maybe it is like an ethnic thing. I don’t think there is appreciation yet about how generationally radicalizing yeah this moment is, and how shocked people are at how far just like the general inertia is willing to go, as if we’re not seeing what’s happening right before our very eyes.”

AOC continued, labelling the Israel-Hamas war a “genocide” and arguing that the Democratic party needs to undermine Israel’s defense efforts if it aims to energize young voters and “reinstate an order around human rights.” 

Israel says it has gone to unprecedented lengths to try and avoid civilian casualties in Gaza, noting its efforts to evacuate areas before it targets them and to warn residents of impending military operations with leaflets, text messages, and other forms of communication. However, Hamas, which rules Gaza, has in many cases prevented people from leaving, according to the Israeli military.

Another challenge for Israel has been Hamas’s widely recognized military strategy of embedding its terrorists within Gaza’s civilian population and commandeering civilian facilities like hospitals, schools, and mosques to run operations and direct attacks.

Over the past year, AOC has repeatedly condemned the Jewish state’s response to the Hamas terrorist group’s brutal Oct. 7 slaughter of roughly 1200 people throughout southern Israel. AOC, a strident critic of Israel, has accused the Jewish state of committing a “genocide” and “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza. She has spearheaded calls for a “ceasefire” between Israel and Hamas. The progressive firebrand has also urged the Biden administration to implement an “arms embargo” against Israel. 

 

  

 

The post AOC Compares Israel-Hamas War to Vietnam, Says Conflict Has Been ‘Generationally Radicalizing’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Obituary: Stanley Diamond, 91, was a Montreal businessman-turned-genealogist whose research changed lives

Stanley Mark Diamond founded Jewish Records Indexing – Poland, the world’s largest special interest genealogy group. JRI – Poland was a “second act” in his life, combining his passion for Jewish continuity with his expertise as a Montreal business leader with a Harvard MBA.

Diamond died in Montreal on Dec.18. He was 91.

JRI – Poland grew over 30 years to approximately 170 volunteers on six continents around the world and amassed a database that now has 6.4 million records reflecting the lives of Polish Jews since the 1500s.

“Stanley had a two-fold superpower,” acting JRI – Poland executive director Robinn Magid says. “He was able to care about people and draw things out of them, but also to contribute and help. They go hand in handz but are not often found in the same person.”

In 1991, Diamond’s nephew was diagnosed as a carrier of beta thalassemia, and he created a family tree to alert relatives about their probability of having the gene. At the time, he was doing consulting work after selling his decorative ceiling business, Intalite, in 1986.

He began attending genealogy conferences and realized that the largest group of Jewish genealogists were Jews who traced their roots to the current or former country of Poland. In 1995, he partnered with two technology experts who had the skills to develop a website that could also incorporate archival information. Several months later, Diamond travelled to Poland with a colleague and persuaded the Polish State Archives to allow JRI – Poland to index his family’s ancestral town’s records. Just four months later, he returned to Poland with a printout of 40,000 entries, to the astonishment of the archives’ director, who then understood the value of the project.

Diamond hoped JRI – Poland would help people capture the essence of their ancestors. In addition to preserving their names, he wanted families to learn about their lives and about their values.

“JRI – Poland specializes in solving puzzles,” says Magid.

While some of these puzzles solve simple questions about basic family history, others are much more complex. The group has helped save lives by sharing information on hereditary health conditions. They have been able to repair damage caused by the Holocaust, connecting and reconnecting fragmented families who lost each other or did not know they even existed. They have assisted people who wanted to prove that they were Jewish and were entitled to an Orthodox Jewish wedding.

The group also assists Jews at risk. “Three years ago, when Putin invaded Ukraine, we saw an upswing in people writing us from Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Poland and other places saying they needed to prove their Polish-Jewish heritage,” says Magid. “In the past we’ve had people from Venezuela and from various South American countries like Argentina. They are in countries that have gone through turmoil and feel at risk. They are either trying to prove their halachic Jewish heritage and move to Israel, or they are trying to prove their Polish-Jewish heritage to get a Polish passport and move to the European Union. These are the people who Stanley personally helped.”

Diamond also provided his research expertise for the television series Finding your Roots and Who Do You Think You Are?, and in 2016 located documentation for the Guinness organization that verified that Israeli Holocaust survivor Yisrael Kristal was the world’s oldest living man at age 112.

Diamond was born in Montreal to Harry and Annie Diamond. He attended West Hill High School and McGill, and graduated from Harvard Business School in 1958. He was an exceptional baseball player, playing in a semi-pro league. He met his wife, Ruth Peerlkamp, at a party, and they were married for 59 years.

“Stanley Diamond’s first passion was for his family, but that soon spread to your families,” daughter Jessika said in her eulogy. “He loved doing for others, advising other genealogists, teaching, speaking out on the importance of genetic testing, reuniting families separated in the Holocaust, finding lost heirs and potential bone marrow matches.” 

In 2021, Yad Vashem granted JRI – Poland third-party access to their Pages of Testimony. Diamond advocated for the organization to support amateur genealogists who could provide hard data, and they agreed for the first time.  

“He was passionate about his work and personally devoted to helping anyone who asked for assistance,” his daughter Rachel said. “He was president of the Jewish Genealogical Society of Montreal, and he was honored by the governor general of Canada with the Meritorious Service Medal. He considered it to be the crowning achievement of his second career. He had a huge footprint that will be felt for a very long time.” 

“It’s hard to imagine doing our jobs without Stanley Diamond advocating and referring and providing knowledge in the background of what we do for people,” said Janice Rosen, director of the Alex Dworkin Canadian Jewish Archives. “He was the go-to person in so many ways. The European side, the Canadian side. He was so determined to ferret out information to help people. He was involved in so many aspects of genealogy which grew out of his need to know about his own genetic background, and he made the whole world benefit from it.”

“We say people were lifetime learners. But more importantly, he was a lifetime contributor. And I don’t think we say that about many people,” said Magid. “He wanted to make a difference because he could envision something and get the right people to do it. And that is unique. He understood that we are part of a chain of continuity of the Jewish people.”

Diamond is survived by his wife, Ruth, daughters Paula, Rachel and Jessika, and his grandchildren.

The post Obituary: Stanley Diamond, 91, was a Montreal businessman-turned-genealogist whose research changed lives appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.

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Dutch Court Blasted for ‘Woefully Insufficient’ Sentencing of Men Who Attacked Israeli Soccer Fans in Amsterdam

Israeli soccer fans under assault, near Amsterdam Central station, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Nov. 8, 2024, in this still image obtained from a social media video. X/iAnnet/via REUTERS

A district court in Amsterdam sentenced five men on Tuesday for participating in violent attacks against Israeli soccer fans in the Dutch city last month, imposing punishments that were roundly criticized as inadequate by many pro-Israel supporters.

The five suspects were sentenced to community service and up to six months in jail for violent public assault, which included kicking fans of the Israeli soccer team Maccabi Tel Aviv before and after the team’s match against their Dutch rivals Ajax and inciting the premeditated and coordinated violence that took place on Nov. 7.

A man identified as Sefa O was given the longest sentence — six months in prison for public violence against several people, minus the time he has already been held in custody. Prosecutors argued that he had a “leading role” in the violence that ensued. In court earlier this month, images were shown of a man identified as Sefa O kicking a person on the ground, chasing fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv in the streets of Amsterdam, and punching people in the head and the body.

A man identified as Umutcan A was sentenced to one month in jail, and Rachid O, who shared messages in the Whatsapp group chat that incited the violence, was sentenced to 10 weeks in jail. Karavan S was given one month for the same offense. Nineteen-year-old Lucas D — the only one of the five men to appear in court for the sentencing on Tuesday — was tried under juvenile law and ordered to complete 100 hours of community service, minus his pre-trial detention. The young man helped incite violence by participating in chat conversations that called for people to gather and attack Maccabi Tel Aviv fans, according to the court, which added that he also sent discriminatory messages in the chat group.

The five men were given sentences that were much less than what prosecutors demanded. The court defended its ruling by saying that community service is typically ordered for such crimes and for first time criminal offenders, which some of the suspects are, but “given the seriousness of the facts and the context in which they took place, the court is of the opinion that a prison sentence is the only appropriate punishment.” However, many have argued that the sentencing is not severe enough.

“Seriously Amsterdam? 6 months maximum prison, while excusing their pogromist actions? Shame on you,” Arsen Ostrovsky, a leading human rights attorney and CEO of The International Legal Forum, said in a post on X. “No wonder Jew-hatred and Islamic extremism is out of control in the Netherlands!”

Tal-Or Cohen, the founder and CEO of CyberWell, a technology company that monitors antisemitism and Holocaust denial on social media, called the sentencing on Tuesday “a shameful slap on the wrist and CYA [cover your ass] by Dutch authorities.”

“One of the leaders of the Amsterdam pogrom ‘possessed illegal fireworks with the power of a hand grenade,’ – But according to Dutch prosecutors no need to pursue charges for terrorism,” she noted, citing a Dutch report about the violence. “What if the leaders of the ‘Jew-Hunt’ brought their grenade to a Christmas market in Amsterdam?”

The Center for Information and Documentation on Israel (CIDI) described the severity of the sentencing as “disappointing” on its website. In a post on X, it further called the punishment “regrettable” since it was much less than what prosecutors had hoped for. “Nevertheless,” the group said, “it is good that prison sentences were imposed and that community service alone was not enough.”

“This shows that the legal order is also shocked. There was no justification for the actions of that night,” the CIDI added. “With this verdict, we as a society draw a clear line that this is not acceptable and that we do not accept this violence. We hope that other suspects will soon be arrested and that prosecutions can be initiated with the same speed.”

Others on X called the sentencing “woefully insufficient,” a “joke,” and a “disgrace.”

“This was an opportunity to show that antisemitism comes with a price. A 6 month jail sentence does not serve as a deterrent,” said one social media user.

After a soccer match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ajax on the night of Nov. 7, Israeli soccer fans were attacked in the streets by assailants who physically assaulted them, ran them over by cars, chased them with knives and sticks, and forced them to say “Free Palestine” to avoid further harm. Chief prosecutor René de Beukelaer said “several dozen” people were attacked. The violence continued into the early hours of Nov. 8 and five Maccabi Tel Aviv fans were hospitalized for injuries sustained during the attack that has been described as a “pogrom.” Amsterdam Mayor Femke Halsema called the attackers “antisemitic hit-and-run squads” who went “Jew hunting.” 

Seven people appeared in court earlier this month in connection to the violence, but two of the cases have been delayed. The defense in one case requested a later date, to have more time to prepare evidence, and the second case, involving a Palestinian refugee accused of “attempted manslaughter,” is pushed back as the court awaits the results of a psychiatric evaluation, according to AFP. A total of 62 people were arrested on the day of the soccer match in relation to the violence, but most were released shortly afterward, the news outlet noted. Dutch police have already identified at least 45 suspects  and are trying to identify more.

The prosecutor previously said that the violence last month “had little to do” with soccer. “In this case, there was no evidence of … a terrorist intent and the violence was not motivated by antisemitic sentiment,” he claimed. “The violence was influenced by the situation in Gaza, not by antisemitism.”

More than 47 people who were attacked during the violence in Amsterdam have obtained legal counsel from The Lawfare Project, which is helping the victims review legal options after also assisting them in securing local counsel in Amsterdam.

The post Dutch Court Blasted for ‘Woefully Insufficient’ Sentencing of Men Who Attacked Israeli Soccer Fans in Amsterdam first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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