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As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
JNS.org – As Iran’s regional proxies continue to weaken, and with Tehran mere weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, there is more and more focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities, although there is no public evidence that it has decided to break out to a bomb.
Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the alarming progress, telling JNS that it was important to distinguish between Iran’s fissile material and the actual work of building a nuclear bomb.
“Regarding fissile material, they are very, very close. Within two to three weeks, they can enrich enough for three nuclear devices, and after that, for three more within a few weeks,” she said.
The next stage, she said, would be to create sufficient missile material at the 90% enrichment level and upwards.
The next step, Shine explained, would be to create a nuclear warhead, which would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
Regarding such a decision, Shine noted that there has been chatter in recent months within Iran—not necessarily from senior regime leaders but rather former senior members—about the need to modify Iran’s security and nuclear doctrine, while other voices have argued the opposite. “There is a very discernable dialogue about this,” said Shine.
Ultimately, the decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, she said, adding that Iran cannot be sure that any decision to break through would not result in an attack on its atomic facilities. Still, the possibility of an Iranian nuclear breakout due to events of the war raging between Israel and Iran’s proxies, their weakening, and the Iranian direct attacks on Israel and Israeli responses could strengthen the camp in Iran that believes that nuclear force is the ultimate deterrent, said Shine.
“The Iranians know how to do this technologically. There is no doubt about that,” she added. The key obstacle is whether Iran’s leadership will choose to cross the threshold.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, echoed these concerns.
Kuperwasser is currently a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
He pointed out that while Iran has made significant advances, there is no concrete evidence that the regime has made a final decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. “We don’t have proof that this is happening,” he said.
According to Kuperwasser, Iran’s strategy could be influenced by the weakening of its proxy forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, who have suffered massive blows from Israel. “Hezbollah has been significantly weakened,” he noted, adding that this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.
“In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now,” said Kuperwasser. “At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.”
“It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment,” he added.
An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.
Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.
Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.
Beyond uranium enrichment and weaponization, Iran has continued testing ballistic-missile delivery systems, the BICOM report said.
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Washington Warns UK, France Against Recognizing Palestinian Statehood

Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy leaves Downing Street, following the results of the election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Toby Melville
i24 News – The United States has warned the UK and France not to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state at a UN conference scheduled for June 17 in New York, the Middle East Eye reported Tuesday.
France and Saudi Arabia will co-host this conference on the two-state solution, with Paris reportedly preparing to unilaterally recognize Palestine. France is also pressuring London to follow this path, according to sources from the British Foreign Office.
French media reports indicate that French authorities believe they have the agreement of the British government. Meanwhile, Arab states are encouraging this move, measuring the success of the conference by the recognitions obtained.
This initiative deeply divides Western allies. If France and the UK were to carry out this recognition, they would become the first G7 nations to take this step, causing a “political earthquake” according to observers, given their historical ties with Israel. The Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer threatened last week to annex parts of the West Bank if this recognition took place, according to a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
In the United Kingdom, Foreign Secretary David Lammy publicly opposes unilateral recognition, stating that London would only recognize a Palestinian state when we know that it is going to happen and that it is in view.
However, pressure is mounting within the Labour Party. MP Uma Kumaran, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said that the government was elected on a platform that promised to recognize Palestine as a step towards a just and lasting peace. Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, believes that there is no legitimate reason for the United States to interfere in a sovereign decision of recognition, while highlighting the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump on this issue.
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Police, Shin Bet Thwart Suspected Iranian Attempt Perpetrate Terror Attack

A small number of Jewish worshipers pray during the priestly blessing, a traditional prayer which usually attracts thousands of worshipers at the Western Wall on the holiday of Passover during 2020, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Jerusalem’s Old City, April 12, 2020. Photo: Reuters / Ronen Zvulun.
i24 News – The Shin Bet security agency and Israel Police thwarted another Iranian attempt to recruit Israelis, according to a statement on Tuesday, arresting a resident of East Jerusalem for allegedly carrying out missions for the Islamic Republic.
Iranian agents recruited the suspect, who in turn recruited members of his family. He is a resident of the Isawiya neighborhood in his 30s, and is accused of maintaining contact with a hostile foreign entity to harm the state by carrying out a terrorist attack against Jews.
The suspect had already begun perpetrating acts of sabotage and espionage, including collecting intelligence about areas in Jerusalem, including the Western Wall and Mahane Yehuda Market. He also hung signs, burned Israeli army uniforms, and more in exchange for payment totaling thousands of shekels.
He was also charged with planning a terror attack in central Israel, including setting fire to a forest, and was told to transfer weapons to terrorist elements in the West Bank.
The suspect’s sought the help of family members, including his mother. A search at his home revealed sums of cash, a spray can used in some of his activities, airsoft guns, suspected illegal drugs, and more.
His indictment is expected to be filed by the Jerusalem District Attorney’s Office.
The statement said that the case is yet another example of Iranian efforts to recruit Israelis. “We will continue to coordinate efforts to thwart terrorism and terrorist elements, including those operating outside Israel, while attempting to mobilize local elements in order to protect the citizens of the State of Israel,” the Shin Bet and Police said.
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Pro-Russian, Anti-Israeli Hackers Pose Biggest Cybercrime Threats in Germany

German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt holds a chart showing the development of antisemitic crime, during a press conference on Figures for Politically Motivated Crime in the Country, in Berlin, Germany, May 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Lisi Niesner
Cybercrime in Germany rose to a record level last year, driven by hacker attacks from pro-Russian and anti-Israeli groups, the BKA Federal Crime Office reported on Tuesday as the government said it would boost countermeasures to combat it.
“Cybercrime is an increasing threat to our security,” said Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt. “It is getting more aggressive but our counter-strategies are also becoming more professional,” he said.
Some 131,391 cases of cybercrime took place in Germany last year and a further 201,877 cases were committed from abroad or an unknown location, a BKA report said.
The actors behind the hacker attacks on German targets were primarily either pro-Russian or anti-Israeli, said the BKA, adding targets were mostly public and federal institutions.
Ransomware, when criminals copy and encrypt data, is one of the main threats, said the BKA, with 950 companies and institutes reporting cases in 2024.
German digital association Bitkom said damage caused by cyberattacks here totaled 178.6 billion euros ($203.87 billion) last year, some 30.4 billion euros more than in the previous year.
Dobrindt said the government planned to extend the legal capabilities authorities could use to combat cybercrime and set higher security standards for companies.
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