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As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
JNS.org – As Iran’s regional proxies continue to weaken, and with Tehran mere weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, there is more and more focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities, although there is no public evidence that it has decided to break out to a bomb.
Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the alarming progress, telling JNS that it was important to distinguish between Iran’s fissile material and the actual work of building a nuclear bomb.
“Regarding fissile material, they are very, very close. Within two to three weeks, they can enrich enough for three nuclear devices, and after that, for three more within a few weeks,” she said.
The next stage, she said, would be to create sufficient missile material at the 90% enrichment level and upwards.
The next step, Shine explained, would be to create a nuclear warhead, which would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
Regarding such a decision, Shine noted that there has been chatter in recent months within Iran—not necessarily from senior regime leaders but rather former senior members—about the need to modify Iran’s security and nuclear doctrine, while other voices have argued the opposite. “There is a very discernable dialogue about this,” said Shine.
Ultimately, the decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, she said, adding that Iran cannot be sure that any decision to break through would not result in an attack on its atomic facilities. Still, the possibility of an Iranian nuclear breakout due to events of the war raging between Israel and Iran’s proxies, their weakening, and the Iranian direct attacks on Israel and Israeli responses could strengthen the camp in Iran that believes that nuclear force is the ultimate deterrent, said Shine.
“The Iranians know how to do this technologically. There is no doubt about that,” she added. The key obstacle is whether Iran’s leadership will choose to cross the threshold.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, echoed these concerns.
Kuperwasser is currently a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
He pointed out that while Iran has made significant advances, there is no concrete evidence that the regime has made a final decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. “We don’t have proof that this is happening,” he said.
According to Kuperwasser, Iran’s strategy could be influenced by the weakening of its proxy forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, who have suffered massive blows from Israel. “Hezbollah has been significantly weakened,” he noted, adding that this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.
“In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now,” said Kuperwasser. “At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.”
“It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment,” he added.
An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.
Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.
Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.
Beyond uranium enrichment and weaponization, Iran has continued testing ballistic-missile delivery systems, the BICOM report said.
The post As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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‘F—k the Jew, F—k the Zionist’: Former CAIR Director Launches Antisemitic Tirade in Manhattan
Noora Shalash confronting Jewish men in New York City. Photo: Screenshot
A former senior employee of the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) was caught on camera launching a profane and antisemitic tirade at Jewish men in New York City in a viral video posted to social media on Thursday.
Noora Shalash, who previously worked as the director of government affairs for CAIR’s Kentucky branch, was confronted by an individual in an office building after allegedly harassing a “visibly Jewish man.” After being grilled for her alleged conduct, Shalash then went on an antisemitic diatribe.
“F—k the Jew. F—k the Zionist,” Shalash said.
Shalash then said that she “loves Jesus” and claimed Jews “dishonor the Virgin Mary and call her a ‘whore.’” She also called the man recording the video a “b—ch” and swiped her hand at his cellphone. A security guard intervened and physically pulled Shalash away while she appeared to continue attempting to assault the man.
“This is what Jews have to deal with in New York City,” the man said.
Midtown Manhattan – crazed antisemite assaults a visible Jew and gets arrested.
“F*ck the Jew … f*ck the Zionists” she says confidently. pic.twitter.com/EdmTR2UzWg
— StopAntisemitism (@StopAntisemites) February 7, 2025
The video, which was obtained and posted on X/Twitter by the watchdog group StopAntisemitism, quickly went viral on social media, gaining nearly 600,000 views within 16 hours.
CAIR National responded to the viral incident, claiming that Shalash had not been employed by the organization for five years and currently has “no other role at our civil rights group.”
“We condemn and reject the antisemitic comments in the video, just as we condemn and reject the anti-Palestinian racism and anti-Muslim hate,” the organization added.
A picture circulated on social media showing CAIR identifying Shalash as a senior official as of October 2020.
PHOTO: CAIR-KY met with #Kentucky Senate Pres Robert Stivers. Representing CAIR-KY were CAIR-KY Board members: Dr. Salah Shakir, Dr. Nadia Rasheed, Dr. Dina Rasheed, Noora Shalash (CAIR-KY Dir Gov Affairs) Sen. Reginald Thomas attended @kysenatepres @BGPolitics @tweet2waheedah pic.twitter.com/YtYGH7z8V3
— CAIR National (@CAIRNational) October 1, 2020
CAIR has long been a controversial organization. In the 2000s, the organization was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Holy Land Foundation terrorism financing case. Politico noted in 2010 that “US District Court Judge Jorge Solis found that the government presented ‘ample evidence to establish the association’” of CAIR with the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
According to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), “some of CAIR’s current leadership had early connections with organizations that are or were affiliated with Hamas.” CAIR has disputed the accuracy of the ADL’s claim and asserted that it “unequivocally condemn[s] all acts of terrorism, whether carried out by al-Qa’ida, the Real IRA, FARC, Hamas, ETA, or any other group designated by the US Department of State as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization.’”
CAIR leaders have also found themselves embroiled in further controversy since Hamas’s massacre across southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
The head of CAIR, for example, said he was “happy” to witness Hamas’s rampage of rape, murder, and kidnapping of Israelis in what was the largest single-day slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.
“The people of Gaza only decided to break the siege — the walls of the concentration camp — on Oct. 7,” CAIR co-founder and executive director Nihad Awad said in a speech during the American Muslims for Palestine convention in Chicago last November. “And yes, I was happy to see people breaking the siege and throwing down the shackles of their own land, and walk free into their land, which they were not allowed to walk in.”
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New ‘Gaza Encampment’ Hits Bowdoin College
Anti-Zionist Bowdoin College students storming the Smith Union administrative building on the evening of February 6, 2025 to occupy it in protest of what they said are the college’s links to Israel. Photo: Screenshot
“Gaza Solidarity Encampments” returned to American higher education on Thursday with the capture and occupation of an administrative building at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine by the group Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP).
According to the Bowdoin Orient, the campus newspaper, SJP stormed Smith Union and installed its encampment on Thursday night in response to US President Donald Trump’s proposing that the US “take over” the Gaza Strip and transform it into a hub for tourism and economic dynamism. The roughly 50 students residing inside the building have vowed not to leave until the Bowdoin officials agree to adopt the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel.
“President Trump’s recent statement suggests a potential endorsement on Israel’s annexation of the West Bank, a move that threatens the rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people and undermines the prospect for a just and lasting peace,” SJP leader Yusur Jasmin said during a speech delivered to the students, who are breaking multiple school rules to hold the demonstration.
Following the action, Bowdoin officials promptly moved to deescalate the situation by counseling the students to mind the “gravity of situation” in which they placed themselves, with senior associate dean Katie Toro-Ferrari warning that their behavior “could put them on the path where they are jeopardizing their ability to remain as Bowdoin students.” However, the Orient said the students continued to flood Smith Union anyway. One student, Olivia Kenney, proclaimed that “Bowdoin does not know how to handle us right now.”
Bowdoin has not conceded the fight to gain control of Smith Union. On Friday, the Orient said it ordered security to declare the building closed for the day and to deny access to all who attempt to enter it, including Orient reporters seeking interviews with the occupiers. The directive has so far blocked entry to over a dozen students who approached its doors on Friday while chanting “This institution does not scare us. To the security, you do not scare us.” The school has also stated unequivocally that refusing to end the demonstration will prompt a “disciplinary process,” the paper added.
“The demonstration that began on our campus on Feb. 6 is in clear violation of our policies, and those students who are participating will be subject to the disciplinary process. Bowdoin’s priority is to ensure that all our students, faculty, and staff feel safe and welcome on campus,” Bowdoin College told The Algemeiner on Friday in a statement.
No college or university has seen the successful establishment of a “Gaza Solidarity Encampments,” since the conclusion of the spring semester of the 2023-2024 academic school year, when anti-Zionists across the US commandeered school property and vowed to maintain control of them until school officials agreed to boycott and divest from Israel, a measure they said would signal disapproval of Israel’s prosecution of its war to eradicate Hamas from Gaza. Several attempts to do so this academic year were undertaken at the University of California, Los Angeles and Sarah Lawrence College, as well as the University of Cambridge and Munich University in Europe, but those endeavors were short lived.
Bowdoin’s encampment, equipped with tents and provisions to support an extended stay inside Smith Union, seems to be modeled directly on those which emerged last year and could be just as difficult to uproot. Some schools, such as Stanford University, failed to negotiate an end their encampments for as many as 120 days. How Bowdoin moves forward will be an early example of how college officials plan to operate in new political and legal parameters set by Trump’s second administration, which has vowed to quell campus unrest.
On Friday the National Association of Scholars, which published in 2013 a groundbreaking study — titled, What Does Bowdoin Teach? — of scholar-activism at Bowdoin College and has been a vocal critic of the anti-Zionist campus movement, called on school officials to restore order and uphold “the core mission of liberal arts education.”
It continued, “We urge Bowdoin College to reaffirm its dedication to a balanced liberal arts education by maintaining an environment where academic inquiry prevails over political activism. By doing so, the college can uphold its responsibility to educate students who are well-equipped to engage thoughtfully and constructively in civic life.”
Bowdoin College is not the only higher education institution that has been convulsed by anti-Israel activity this semester.
Columbia University was a victim of infrastructural sabotage last month, when an extremist anti-Zionist group flooded the toilets of an academic building with concrete to mark the anniversary of an alleged killing of a Palestinian child. The targeted facilities were located on several floors of the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA), according to Keren Yarhi-Milo, dean of the school, who addressed the matter, calling the behavior “deplorable, disruptive, and deeply unsettling, as our campus is a space we cherish for learning teaching, and working, and it will not be tolerated.”
Numerous reports indicate the attack may be the premeditated result of planning sessions which took place many months ago at an event held by Alpha Delta Phi (ADP) — a literary society, according to the Washington Free Beacon. During the event, the Free Beacon reported, ADP distributed literature dedicated to “aspiring revolutionaries” who wish to commit seditious acts. Additionally, a presentation was given in which complete instructions for the exact kind of attack which struck Columbia on Wednesday were shared with students.
Republicans in Washington, DC have said that such behavior “will no longer be tolerated in the Trump administration.” Meanwhile, the new president has enacted a slew of policies aimed at reining in disruptive and discriminatory behavior.
Continuing work started started during his first administration — when Trump issued Executive Order 13899 to ensure that civil rights law apply equally Jews — Trump’s recent “Additional Measures to Combat Antisemitism” calls for “using all appropriate legal tools to prosecute, remove, or otherwise … hold to account perpetrators of unlawful antisemitic harassment and violence.” The order also requires each government agency to write a report explaining how it can be of help in carrying out its enforcement. Another major provision of the order calls for the deportation of extremist “alien” student activists, whose support for terrorist organizations, intellectual and material, such as Hamas contributed to fostering antisemitism, violence, and property destruction.
Follow Dion J. Pierre @DionJPierre.
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Trump Sanctions ICC, Blasts Court for Setting ‘Dangerous Precedent’ With Netanyahu Arrest Warrant
US President Donald Trump speaks at the White House, in Washington, DC, Feb. 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order imposing travel and economic sanctions against those who assist with International Criminal Court (ICC) investigations of American citizens or allies such as Israel.
Trump announced the executive order on Thursday, coinciding with the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — for whom the ICC issued an arrest warrant last year over his role in the Gaza war — to Washington, DC. Under the sanctions, ICC officials, employees, and agents, together with their immediate family members, will have their property and assets blocked and their access to the United States suspended.
“The ICC’s recent actions against Israel and the United States set a dangerous precedent, directly endangering current and former United States personnel, including active service members of the Armed Forces, by exposing them to harassment, abuse, and possible arrest,” the order reads. “This malign conduct in turn threatens to infringe upon the sovereignty of the United States and undermines the critical national security and foreign policy work of the United States Government and our allies, including Israel.”
In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and now-deceased Hamas terror leader Ibrahim al-Masri (better known as Mohammed Deif) for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. The ICC said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for starvation in Gaza and the persecution of Palestinians — charges vehemently denied by Israel, which has provided significant humanitarian aid into the war-torn enclave throughout the war.
US and Israeli officials issued blistering condemnations of the ICC move, decrying the court for drawing a moral equivalence between Israel’s democratically elected leaders and the heads of Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that launched the ongoing war in Gaza with its massacre across southern Israel last Oct. 7.
The ICC has no jurisdiction over Israel as it is not a signatory to the Rome Statute, which established the court. Other countries including the US have similarly not signed the ICC charter. However, the ICC has asserted jurisdiction by accepting “Palestine” as a signatory in 2015, despite no such state being recognized under international law.
The ICC responded to Trump’s executive order with a forceful condemnation, stressing that the court produces “independent and impartial” work.
“The court stands firmly by its personnel and pledges to continue providing justice and hope to millions of innocent victims of atrocities across the world,” the ICC said.
European Council President Antonio Costa blasted the US move, writing that “sanctioning the ICC threatens the court’s independence and undermines the international criminal justice system as a whole.”
However, not all reactions to the executive order were negative. Israel commended Trump for his sanctions against the ICC.
“I strongly commend @POTUS President Trump’s executive order imposing sanctions on the so-called ‘international criminal court,’” wrote Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on X.
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