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As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
JNS.org – As Iran’s regional proxies continue to weaken, and with Tehran mere weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, there is more and more focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities, although there is no public evidence that it has decided to break out to a bomb.
Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the alarming progress, telling JNS that it was important to distinguish between Iran’s fissile material and the actual work of building a nuclear bomb.
“Regarding fissile material, they are very, very close. Within two to three weeks, they can enrich enough for three nuclear devices, and after that, for three more within a few weeks,” she said.
The next stage, she said, would be to create sufficient missile material at the 90% enrichment level and upwards.
The next step, Shine explained, would be to create a nuclear warhead, which would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
Regarding such a decision, Shine noted that there has been chatter in recent months within Iran—not necessarily from senior regime leaders but rather former senior members—about the need to modify Iran’s security and nuclear doctrine, while other voices have argued the opposite. “There is a very discernable dialogue about this,” said Shine.
Ultimately, the decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, she said, adding that Iran cannot be sure that any decision to break through would not result in an attack on its atomic facilities. Still, the possibility of an Iranian nuclear breakout due to events of the war raging between Israel and Iran’s proxies, their weakening, and the Iranian direct attacks on Israel and Israeli responses could strengthen the camp in Iran that believes that nuclear force is the ultimate deterrent, said Shine.
“The Iranians know how to do this technologically. There is no doubt about that,” she added. The key obstacle is whether Iran’s leadership will choose to cross the threshold.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, echoed these concerns.
Kuperwasser is currently a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
He pointed out that while Iran has made significant advances, there is no concrete evidence that the regime has made a final decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. “We don’t have proof that this is happening,” he said.
According to Kuperwasser, Iran’s strategy could be influenced by the weakening of its proxy forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, who have suffered massive blows from Israel. “Hezbollah has been significantly weakened,” he noted, adding that this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.
“In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now,” said Kuperwasser. “At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.”
“It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment,” he added.
An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.
Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.
Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.
Beyond uranium enrichment and weaponization, Iran has continued testing ballistic-missile delivery systems, the BICOM report said.
The post As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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World News Standing with Zionism Is Standing with Liberty and Justice
Theodor Herzl, considered the father of modern-day Zionism, leans over the balcony of the Hotel Les Trois Rois (Three King’s Hotel/Hotel drei Könige) in Basel, Switzerland, in 1897. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.
JNS.org – Understanding a two-sided conflict requires nuance. In almost all disputes, both sides have merit to their arguments; simultaneously, flaws can also be found in their position.
There are rare conflicts that require no nuance to understand them. These conflicts pit good against evil. One side is so obviously moral and the other so vile that even trying to understand the vile side doesn’t help a person understand the topic of dispute, but rather, runs the risk of demonstrating empathy for a position so objectionable that it deserves no space in a moral society. One doesn’t need to (and shouldn’t) study Nazi thought to understand why antisemitism and murder are wrong. The same is true of racism and rape. There aren’t many conflicts that are so obvious, but when they occur, it’s important to relate to them properly and not treat them as normal conversation.
Zionism is a modern political movement based on a 4,000-year-old ideology that maintains there is an intrinsic connection between the Jewish people and the Land of Israel. The modern political Zionist movement started in the middle of the 1800s and advocated for the rights of the Jewish people to self-determination in their historic homeland, the Land of Israel. Its founder is generally recognized as Theodor Herzl, but hundreds of Zionists came before him. The Zionist movement experienced success in its mission with the establishment of the modern-day State of Israel in 1948. Since its founding, the nation has remained loyal to its purpose of ensuring the Jewish people determine their destiny on their land.
Zionism was the modern age’s greatest liberation movement. For 2,000 years, almost every country the Jews settled in eventually turned on them, persecuted them and expelled them. The Jew was known as a wanderer—always a stranger in a strange land. The Jewish nightmare reached its lowest point when Nazi Germany, aided by antisemites throughout Eastern and Western Europe, murdered 6 million men, women and children. This evil was so singularly unique that it was given its own name: the Holocaust. Many opposed to Zionism or who had yet to understand its merits understood the need for Jewish self-determination and a Jewish state after witnessing the evils perpetrated against the Jews when they didn’t have their own nation to defend them and provide refuge to their persecuted. Zionism stands as an outline for every liberation movement that came after it.
On the Jewish festival of Simchat Torah on Oct. 7, the Jewish people, Israelis and the international community were given a harsh reminder of the violent plots antisemites plan for the Jews. Palestinians by the thousands stormed across the Gaza-Israel border and committed acts equally as heinous as the Nazis perpetrated against the Jews of Europe and North Africa. The barbarians who killed, kidnapped, raped, burned, beheaded and tortured innocent Jews that day targeted civilians. The atrocities weren’t acts of resistance but evil savagery. The acts that day were premeditated and committed out of antisemitism.
In the year since, antisemites around the world have felt emboldened to express their Jew-hatred in ways not seen since Nazi rallies. These rallies aren’t about a free Palestine, justice or human rights. In the past few decades, Palestinians were massacred by the tens of thousands in Syria, uprooted from their homes in Egypt and discriminated against in Lebanon. Not one rally was held anywhere in the world for these genuine atrocities committed against Palestinians in Arab countries. It was antisemitism that awakened the masses to scream vile hate-filled slogans like “Kill the Jews” in cities spanning from San Francisco to London to Sydney. The people at these rallies looked at a conflict that pitted the freedom movement of Zionism against the hate of antisemitism and chose to rally for evil. For shame.
The conflict that has sprung up since the Simchat Torah massacre pits the Jewish state against terrorists who wish for the demise of the one nation that protects the Jewish people. It doesn’t aim to win freedom or rights for the Palestinian people but to reverse global progress that achieved liberation for the Jewish people. The side of the conflict that waves flags of terrorist organizations intends to put the Jewish people back at risk of the extermination they faced throughout the Crusades, during pogroms and the Holocaust.
This two-sided conflict isn’t a normal conflict that requires nuance to understand it. This conflict pits good vs. evil. Israel’s enemies and their supporters use emotion instead of facts, demonization instead of history and victimhood instead of responsibility to trick society into confusing weakness for virtue and strength for misconduct, leading the public to support evil instead of standing up for a liberal and democratic state.
All great justice movements fought for the liberty and rights of their people. These movements weren’t built around fighting against others. They advocated for their people’s rights and used violence to achieve their goals when they were left with no other choice. Zionism followed the American Revolution, among other movements, to earn its liberty. Israel’s enemies have consistently chosen to leave the negotiating table or never join it in the first place and use violence as their first option.
A year after the Simchat Torah massacre, the world has become a more confused place. People who stand for justice are standing on the wrong side of a conflict between the liberation movement of Zionism and violent antisemites who march with terrorist flags, following people being paid by terrorists to disrupt Western, liberal and free societies. There must be a moral reckoning directed by global leaders who don’t try to kowtow to both sides and appease the most evil actors in today’s world. The world must choose—and declare Zionism and Israel just and its opponents the enemies of liberty, democracy and justice.
The post World News Standing with Zionism Is Standing with Liberty and Justice first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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North Korean Soldiers Spotted in Russia, Fighting Against Ukraine
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un visit the Vostochny Сosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, Sept. 13, 2023. Photo: Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Kremlin via REUTERS
i24 News – Footage has emerged showing approximately 1,500 North Korean soldiers receiving uniforms and equipment at a training ground in eastern Russia, confirming reports that North Korea is preparing to play a more active role in the conflict in Ukraine.
This development underscores the growing military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, particularly in the face of increasing tensions with the West.
The video, which aired on CNN, depicts long lines of North Korean soldiers waiting to be outfitted for service. Upon their arrival in Russia, these soldiers were reportedly asked to complete questionnaires providing their measurements for uniforms, hats, and footwear.
This organized effort suggests a systematic approach to integrating North Korean troops into Russian military operations.
In another video shared on social media, a Russian speaker can be heard commenting on the presence of North Korean troops, stating, “We can’t film them… There are more, there are millions of them here. Here are the new reinforcements. This is just the beginning.” This statement raises concerns about the scale of North Korean military involvement in Russia and, potentially, in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed alarm over the alliance between Russia and North Korea, warning during a NATO summit this week that “thousands” of North Korean troops are reportedly en route to Russia. This revelation could mark a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, as North Korea has one of the largest standing armies in the world, boasting 1.2 million soldiers. However, many of these troops lack combat experience, raising questions about their immediate effectiveness in a frontline role.
The burgeoning relationship between North Korea and Russia has been solidified through recent high-level meetings, including President Vladimir Putin’s visit to the North Korean capital in June. During this visit, both countries pledged to provide mutual military assistance in the event of an attack, signaling a historic defense agreement forged out of shared interests and mutual ostracism from the West.
The post North Korean Soldiers Spotted in Russia, Fighting Against Ukraine first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Sinwar’s Wife Seen Holding $32,000 Hermès Bag
The wife of recently eliminated Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seen holding a $32,000 Hermes bag while fleeing through tunnel. Credit: IDF
JNS.org – The Israel Defense Forces released footage on Saturday showing the wife of recently deceased Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar making her way through a tunnel carrying a $32,000 Hermès Birkin bag.
She is seen walking behind her husband and children the day before the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, in which 1,200 were slaughtered and 251 taken hostage.
The footage was posted to X by Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee, head of the Arab media division of the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit.
“While the people of Gaza do not have enough money for a tent or basic necessities, we see many examples of Yahya Sinwar and his wife’s special love for money,” Adraee posted in Arabic.
IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari on Saturday said of the footage: “For hours, they go up and down, stocking up on food, a television, and other products for a long stay. He [Sinwar] only cared for his personal survival.”
According to the post, Sinwar’s wife was carrying a Hermès Birkin 40 Black Togo Gold Hardware.
It has “tonal stitching, two straps with front toggle closure, clochette with lock and two keys and double rolled handles.
“The interior is lined in black chevre with one zip pocket with an Hermès engraved zipper pull and an open pocket on the opposite side,” according to website Madison Avenue Couture, which sells it for the $32,000 price tag the IDF noted.
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