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As Iran’s Proxy Strategy Weakens, Focus Shifts to Nuclear Program
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
JNS.org – As Iran’s regional proxies continue to weaken, and with Tehran mere weeks away from enriching uranium to weapons-grade level, there is more and more focus on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear activities, although there is no public evidence that it has decided to break out to a bomb.
Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, highlighted the alarming progress, telling JNS that it was important to distinguish between Iran’s fissile material and the actual work of building a nuclear bomb.
“Regarding fissile material, they are very, very close. Within two to three weeks, they can enrich enough for three nuclear devices, and after that, for three more within a few weeks,” she said.
The next stage, she said, would be to create sufficient missile material at the 90% enrichment level and upwards.
The next step, Shine explained, would be to create a nuclear warhead, which would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
Regarding such a decision, Shine noted that there has been chatter in recent months within Iran—not necessarily from senior regime leaders but rather former senior members—about the need to modify Iran’s security and nuclear doctrine, while other voices have argued the opposite. “There is a very discernable dialogue about this,” said Shine.
Ultimately, the decision rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, she said, adding that Iran cannot be sure that any decision to break through would not result in an attack on its atomic facilities. Still, the possibility of an Iranian nuclear breakout due to events of the war raging between Israel and Iran’s proxies, their weakening, and the Iranian direct attacks on Israel and Israeli responses could strengthen the camp in Iran that believes that nuclear force is the ultimate deterrent, said Shine.
“The Iranians know how to do this technologically. There is no doubt about that,” she added. The key obstacle is whether Iran’s leadership will choose to cross the threshold.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Research and Assessment Division of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate, echoed these concerns.
Kuperwasser is currently a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs and at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy.
He pointed out that while Iran has made significant advances, there is no concrete evidence that the regime has made a final decision to weaponize its nuclear capabilities. “We don’t have proof that this is happening,” he said.
According to Kuperwasser, Iran’s strategy could be influenced by the weakening of its proxy forces, Hezbollah and Hamas, who have suffered massive blows from Israel. “Hezbollah has been significantly weakened,” he noted, adding that this undermines Iran’s deterrence and could prompt the regime to explore the nuclear option as a form of ultimate deterrence.
“In light of Israeli successes, and in light of the fact that Trump could win the U.S. elections [scheduled for less than a month from now], this could strengthen those [in Iran] who support a breakout now,” said Kuperwasser. “At the same time, they also have considerations that pull them in the opposite direction. Even if they discussed this, there is no expression that, at this time, they took a certain decision to move forward.”
“It’s a very high risk, especially in the current environment,” he added.
An Oct. 11, 2024 report by the Britain Israel Communications and Research Centre (BICOM) outlined Iran’s continued production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium. The United Kingdom, France and Germany (known as the E3) have expressed alarm, stating in September 2024 that Iran’s actions “significantly harm international security and undermine the global non-proliferation architecture.” The E3 called on Iran to halt its nuclear escalation and return to the restrictions imposed by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also voiced concerns. According to its August 2023 report, Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce and accumulate high-enriched uranium. The IAEA noted that Iran has amassed enough 60% enriched uranium to shorten the breakout time to less than two weeks, should it choose to enrich to the 90%, or weapon-grade, level. The BICOM report cites estimates from the Institute for Science and International Security, which indicate that Iran could produce its first 25 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium (enough for one nuclear device) within around one week. Using its advanced centrifuges and current stockpiles, Iran could produce enough material for up to 15 nuclear weapons within five months, according to the report.
Iran’s weaponization progress, the other step needed for the bomb, has also been drawing scrutiny. In March 2024, American and Israeli intelligence agencies obtained evidence of Iranian scientists engaging in research and computer modeling relevant to developing nuclear explosives, the BICOM report noted.
Israeli officials warned in August that Iran is increasingly focused on acquiring the components necessary to build a nuclear warhead. A July 2024 intelligence report, filed to Congress by the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, removed a sentence that appeared in past reports on the subject since 2019, which stated that Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.
Beyond uranium enrichment and weaponization, Iran has continued testing ballistic-missile delivery systems, the BICOM report said.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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