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Can Syria’s Assad Be Distanced from Iranian-Hezbollah Influence?
Syrians and Palestinians living in Syria stand next to a poster depicting Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad as they mark the annual al-Quds Day (Jerusalem Day), in Damascus, Syria April 29, 2022. REUTERS/Firas Makdesi
JNS.org – As Israel continues to degrade Iranian and Hezbollah capabilities in Lebanon, Syria and Iran itself, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad faces growing pressure to manage Tehran’s presence within his borders.
How will Assad respond to the changing balance of power in the region, which has dramatically reduced the power of the Iranian-led jihadist axis? An axis that he depended on to rescue him during the Syrian civil war, and which is currently attempting to turn Syria into an additional war front against Israel (an effort that has been significantly hampered by years of Israeli airstrikes, going back to 2011).
Professor Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University and chair of its contemporary Middle East history department, believes that “Assad will not give up the connection with Iran, which helped him survive the civil war,” but that on the other hand “he does not want the Iranians to drag him into a confrontation with Israel.”
Speaking to JNS on Tuesday, Zisser assessed that Assad might even welcome a limit to Iran’s influence within Syria, since too prominent an Iranian presence could provoke Israeli attacks on his regime. However, he continued, while Assad could conceivably follow through with some reduction of Iran’s presence in Syria, it is unlikely that he would completely disconnect from Tehran.
On October 12, the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that Syria’s 4th Division, led by Maj.-Gen. Maher al-Assad, the president’s brother, had implemented measures designed to avoid Israeli airstrikes. “The command of the 4th Division has ordered subordinated troops not to move weapons or host Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militia members within the headquarters and bases of the 4th Division,” according to SOHR.
Additionally, these orders restricted forces from targeting U.S. troops in Syria, as well as attacks on the Golan Heights in Israel from 4th Division sites, according to the report.
Hezbollah’s Golan File is a unit designed to create a network of proxy terrorist cells, bases and surveillance posts in southern Syria, while Hezbollah’s Southern Command in Syria works to create Hezbollah infrastructure in the area, including in Syrian military and observation posts.
In recent days, the Israeli Defense Forces notably targeted significant threats posed by Iranian and Hezbollah activities in Syria.
On Monday, the IDF confirmed a strike against what it said were Hezbollah intelligence facilities in Syria. The operation was directed against the organization’s central intelligence branch, which includes a specialized network under the command of Hezbollah’s head of intelligence, Hassan Ali al-Zaima, who, alongside Hashem Safieddine, the late head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council, was killed in Beirut’s Dahiyeh area in September.
Mahmoud Mohammed Shaheen, Hezbollah’s long-serving head of intelligence in Syria, was also eliminated in the strike, representing a major setback for Hezbollah’s operational intelligence capabilities.
The IDF stated that Shaheen’s elimination constituted “a further degradation of Hezbollah’s intelligence capabilities,” and that the strikes on Tuesday severely hindered Hezbollah’s intelligence assets in Syria.
These attacks are part of a broader Israeli strategy aimed at eroding the military capabilities of Iran’s regional allies and Tehran’s entrenchment in Syria.
During a webinar held by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) on Oct. 27, IDF Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Yaacov Ayish, former Israeli military attaché in Washington D.C., stated that Israel’s Oct. 26 airstrike in Iran was significant for other players in the region as well.
Ayish noted the destruction of Iranian S-300 air defense systems in that attack, systems that are considered a “very expensive, scarce commodity nowadays, and not only in Iran … also in Lebanon, Syria, the Ukraine-Russia war and elsewhere.”
Israel’s destruction of these systems in Iran sends a message to others in the region, including the Assad regime, about their vulnerability to Israeli strikes, which could influence their behavior regarding Iranian-Shi’ite terrorist entities on their soil.
Russia, for its part, which depends on Iran for missile and drone deliveries amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, continues to operate its Khmeimim airbase on the Syrian coastline, in northwest Syria. The Alma Center, an Israeli research center specializing in northern threats to the Jewish state, has assessed in recent months the Russian-controlled base, which forms the main Russian military presence in Syria, could be used to help transfer Iranian weapons to Syria as part of Moscow’s quid pro quo arrangement with Iran.
At the same time, during the Oct. 27 JINSA webinar former Israeli national security adviser IDF Maj. Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror stated that the Russians would not “interfere actively” with any Israeli strikes, adding that they do not want to be placed in a position that shows that their “systems do not work.”
Ultimately, even a reduction by Assad of the Iranian presence in specific areas would represent a gain for Israel, not only at the tactical threat level but also as an expression of the waning power of the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis in the Middle East.
The post Can Syria’s Assad Be Distanced from Iranian-Hezbollah Influence? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Trump Proposes Resettlement of Gazans as Netanyahu Visits White House
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet at the White House in Washington, DC, US, Feb. 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday proposed the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring countries, calling the enclave a “demolition site” and saying residents have “no alternative” as he held critical talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House.
“[The Palestinians] have no alternative right now” but to leave Gaza, Trump told reporters before Netanyahu arrived. “I mean, they’re there because they have no alternative. What do they have? It is a big pile of rubble right now.”
Trump repeated his call for Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states in the region to take in Palestinians from Gaza after nearly 16 months of war there between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas, which ruled the enclave before the war and remains the dominant faction.
Arab leaders have adamantly rejected Trump’s proposal. However, Trump argued on Tuesday that Palestinians would benefit from leaving Gaza and expressed astonishment at the notion that they would want to remain.
“Look, the Gaza thing has not worked. It’s never worked. And I feel very differently about Gaza than a lot of people. I think they should get a good, fresh, beautiful piece of land. We’ll get some people to put up the money to build it and make it nice and make it habitable and enjoyable,” Trump said.
Referring to Gaza as a “pure demolition site,” the president said he doesn’t “know how they [Palestinians] could want to stay” when asked about the reaction of Palestinian and Arab leaders to his proposal.
“If we could find the right piece of land, or numerous pieces of land, and build them some really nice places, there’s plenty of money in the area, that’s for sure,” Trump continued. “I think that would be a lot better than going back to Gaza, which has had decades and decades of death.”
However, Trump clarified that he does “not necessarily” support Israel permanently annexing and resettling Gaza.
Trump later made similar remarks with Netanyahu at his side in the Oval Office, suggesting that Palestinians should leave Gaza for good “in nice homes and where they can be happy and not be shot, not be killed.”
“They are not going to want to go back to Gaza,” he said.
Trump did not offer any specifics about how a resettlement process could be implemented.
The post-war future of Palestinians in Gaza has loomed as a major point of contention within both the United States and Israel. The former Biden administration emphatically rejected the notion of relocating Gaza civilians, demanding a humanitarian aid “surge” into the beleaguered enclave.
Trump has previously hinted at support for relocating Gaza civilians. Last month, the president said he would like to “just clean out” Gaza and resettle residents in Jordan or Egypt.
Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, defended Trump’s comments in a Tuesday press conference, arguing that Gaza will remain uninhabitable for the foreseeable future.
“When the president talks about ‘cleaning it out,’ he talks about making it habitable,” Witkoff said. “It is unfair to have explained to Palestinians that they might be back in five years. That’s just preposterous.
Trump’s comments were immediately met with backlash, with some observers accusing him of supporting an ethnic cleansing plan. However, proponents of the proposal argue that it could offer Palestinians a better future and would mitigate the threat posed by Hamas.
Hamas-led Palestinian terrorists started the Gaza war on Oct. 7, 2023, when they invaded southern Israel, murdered 1,200 people, and kidnapped 251 hostages back to Gaza while perpetrating widespread sexual violence in what was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust.
Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at freeing the hostages and dismantling Hamas’s military and governing capabilities in neighboring Gaza.
Last month, both sides reached a Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release deal brokered by the US, Egypt, and Qatar.
Under phase one of the agreement, Hamas will, over six weeks, free a total of 33 Israeli hostages, eight of whom are deceased, and in exchange, Israel will release over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners, many of whom are serving multiple life sentences for terrorist activity. Meanwhile, fighting in Gaza will stop as negotiators work on agreeing to a second phase of the agreement, which is expected to include Hamas releasing all remaining hostages held in Gaza and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the enclave.
The ceasefire and the future of Gaza were expected to be key topics of conversation between Trump and Netanyahu, along with the possibility of Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations and Iran’s nuclear program.
Riyadh has indicated that any normalization agreement with Israel would need to include an end to the Gaza war and the pathway to the formation of a Palestinian state.
However, perhaps the most strategically important subject will be Iran, particularly how to contain its nuclear program and combat its support for terrorist proxies across the Middle East. In recent weeks, many analysts have raised questions over whether Trump would support an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which both Washington and Jerusalem fear are meant to ultimately develop nuclear weapons.
Netanyahu on Tuesday was the first foreign leader to visit the White House since Trump’s inauguration last month.
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Trump Reimposes ‘Maximum Pressure’ on Iran, Aims to Drive Oil Exports to Zero
US President Donald Trump speaks at the White House, in Washington, DC, Feb. 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday restored his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran that includes efforts to drive its oil exports down to zero in order to stop Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump signed the presidential memorandum reimposing Washington’s tough policy on Iran that was practiced throughout his first term.
As he signed the memo, Trump described it as very tough and said he was torn on whether to make the move. He said he was open to a deal with Iran and expressed a willingness to talk to the Iranian leader.
“With me, it’s very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. Asked how close Tehran is to a weapon, Trump said: “They’re too close.”
Iran‘s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump has accused former President Joe Biden of failing to rigorously enforce oil-export sanctions, which Trump says emboldened Tehran by allowing it to sell oil to fund a nuclear weapons program and armed militias in the Middle East.
Iran is “dramatically” accelerating enrichment of uranium to up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent weapons-grade level, the UN nuclear watchdog chief told Reuters in December. Iran has denied wanting to develop a nuclear weapon.
Trump‘s memo, among other things, orders the US Treasury secretary to impose “maximum economic pressure” on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions.
It also directs the Treasury and State Department to implement a campaign aimed at “driving Iran‘s oil exports to zero.” US oil prices pared losses on Tuesday on the news that Trump planned to sign the memo, which offset some weakness from the tariff drama between Washington and Beijing.
Tehran’s oil exports brought in $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion a year earlier, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates. Output during 2024 was running at its highest level since 2018, based on OPEC data.
Trump had driven Iran‘s oil exports to near-zero during part of his first term after re-imposing sanctions. They rose under Biden’s tenure as Iran succeeded in evading sanctions.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency believes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and other OPEC members have spare capacity to make up for any lost exports from Iran, also an OPEC member.
PUSH FOR SANCTIONS SNAPBACK
China does not recognize US sanctions and Chinese firms buy the most Iranian oil. China and Iran have also built a trading system that uses mostly Chinese yuan and a network of middlemen, avoiding the dollar and exposure to US regulators.
Kevin Book, an analyst at ClearView Energy, said the Trump administration could enforce the 2024 Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) law to curtail some Iranian barrels.
SHIP, which the Biden administration did not enforce strictly, allows measures on foreign ports and refineries that process petroleum exported from Iran in violation of sanctions. Book said a move last month by the Shandong Port Group to ban US-sanctioned tankers from calling into its ports in the eastern Chinese province signals the impact SHIP could have.
Trump also directed his UN ambassador to work with allies to “complete the snapback of international sanctions and restrictions on Iran,” under a 2015 deal between Iran and key world powers that lifted sanctions on Tehran in return for restrictions on its nuclear program.
The US quit the agreement in 2018, during Trump‘s first term, and Iran began moving away from its nuclear-related commitments under the deal. The Trump administration had also tried to trigger a snapback of sanctions under the deal in 2020, but the move was dismissed by the UN Security Council.
Britain, France, and Germany told the United Nations Security Council in December that they are ready — if necessary — to trigger a snapback of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
They will lose the ability to take such action on Oct. 18 when a 2015 UN resolution expires. The resolution enshrines Iran‘s deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia, and China that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.
Iran‘s UN ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani, has said that invoking the “snap-back” of sanctions on Tehran would be “unlawful and counterproductive.”
European and Iranian diplomats met in November and January to discuss if they could work to defuse regional tensions, including over Tehran’s nuclear program, before Trump returned.
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Trump Stops US Involvement With UN Rights Body, Extends UNRWA Funding Halt
An UNRWA aid truck at the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Photo: Reuters/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered an end to US engagement with the United Nations Human Rights Council and continued a halt to funding for the UN Palestinian relief agency UNRWA.
The move coincides with a visit to Washington by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long been critical of UNRWA, accusing it of anti-Israel incitement and its staff of being “involved in terrorist activities against Israel.”
During Trump‘s first term in office, from 2017-2021, he also cut off funding for UNRWA, questioning its value, saying that Palestinians needed to agree to renew peace talks with Israel, and calling for unspecified reforms.
The first Trump administration also quit the 47-member Human Rights Council halfway through a three-year term over what it called chronic bias against Israel and a lack of reform. The US is not currently a member of the Geneva-based body. Under former President Joe Biden, the US served a 2022-2024 term.
A council working group is due to review the US human rights record later this year, a process all countries undergo every few years. While the council has no legally binding power, its debates carry political weight and criticism can raise global pressure on governments to change course.
Since taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, Trump has ordered that the US withdraw from the World Health Organization and from the Paris climate agreement — also steps he took during his first term in office.
The US was UNRWA’s biggest donor — providing $300 million-$400 million a year — but Biden paused funding in January 2024 after Israel accused about a dozen UNRWA staff of taking part in the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Palestinian terrorist group Hamas that triggered the war in Gaza.
The US Congress then formally suspended contributions to UNRWA until at least March 2025.
The United Nations has said that nine UNRWA staff may have been involved in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack and were fired. A Hamas commander in Lebanon — killed in September by Israel — was also found to have had a UNRWA job.
An Israeli ban went into effect on Jan. 30 that prohibits UNRWA from operating on its territory or communicating with Israeli authorities. UNRWA has said operations in Gaza and West Bank will also suffer.
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