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Chaos in Syria ‘Creates Opportunities’ Against Iranian Axis

Smoke billows near residential buildings in a picture taken from a drone in Aleppo, Syria, Dec. 3, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Hasano
JNS.org – Since Nov. 27, the Syrian civil war has seen a resurgence of hostilities that directly threatens the stability of President Bashar Assad’s regime, following an offensive launched by Sunni rebels from Idlib in northwestern Syria.
The renewed fighting has seen the rebels quickly take Aleppo and advance further south, and is being closely monitored by Israel. It is already drawing in Russia, which is conducting airstrikes on the Sunni forces, while unconfirmed reports of strikes by an unidentified air force targeted positions of Iran-backed militias in Deir Ezzor, northeastern Syria, an area used by Shi’ite militias to cross into Syria from Iraq.
At the forefront of the renewed offensive against Assad’s forces is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist organization led by the 43-year-old Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda in Syria and known as Jabhat al-Nusra before breaking ties with al-Qaeda, HTS has become the primary umbrella force challenging the Syrian government in the Idlib region.
Israel remains cautious about taking sides publicly, while preparing itself for a range of scenarios.
Lt. Col. (res.) Marco Moreno, a former senior officer in the IDF’s Human Intelligence Unit 504 who was responsible for the Lebanon and Syria arenas, and the founder and commander of “Operation Good Neighbor” from 2012 to 2016, which provided humanitarian aid to Syrians during the civil war, directly linked current events in that country with the hammer blows sustained by Hezbollah and the Shi’ite axis in neighboring Lebanon.
“The rebels have been waiting with plans for a long time, and once they saw that we weakened and harmed Hezbollah in Lebanon—and in Syria—they took advantage of the opportunity to attack,” Moreno told JNS on Sunday.
Moreno noted that the direct impact on Israel at this stage is minor, since the fighting is not occurring close to the border in southern Syria.
‘Syria’s Philadelphi Corridor’
He also noted that the Assad regime has played a highly destructive and dangerous role for Israel’s security over the years, supplying highly advanced, strategic weaponry to Hezbollah.
“The Assad regime allowed Syria to be the Philadelphi Corridor [the Gazan area bordering Sinai used to smuggle weapons] on steroids,” said Moreno.
Many of the weapons Hezbollah used against Israel in the recent war came from Syria, he said. “When I say strategic weaponry was smuggled from Syria, I mean strategic, without going into further details,” he added.
The rebels, he said, are an assortment of groups including extremist jihadists. “As someone who ran ‘Operation Good Neighbor’ in the Golan Heights, I know the rebels well—the good and the less good. I think that when the rebellion reaches southern Syria, the Golan Heights, it could create a security challenge on the border. The Israel Defense Forces will have the needed skills, acquired from the past, to deal with this event,” Moreno said.
Israel will likely be able to set up arrangements, not all of them necessarily public, with rebel groups, he assessed.
“Once Syria is removed from the Shi’ite axis, the Iranian axis will be severely harmed. The next step will be the Iranian axis itself,” he said. “This is something that will project on all of the arenas, including Hamas and Hezbollah.”
Regarding concerns that sites belonging to the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center, which, in cooperation with Iran develops precise missiles, and according to reports, chemical weapons, could fall into the hands of jihadists, Moreno said, “Israeli intelligence agencies would have to monitor this, and if needed, act in this scenario.”
He added that if rebels destroy sites used to supply Hezbollah with weapons, this could also benefit Israel.
Israeli intelligence superiority is well established in the northern arena, he argued.
Addressing the Turkish role, Moreno said that Ankara appears to be motivated in backing a number of rebel groups by the goal of moving millions of Sunni refugees who have found haven in Turkey back to Syrian soil, and perhaps to initiate this maneuver before the second Trump administration is sworn in. Turkey might also sense an opportunity to push the Kurds back from the Turkish border, he added.
“We’re in the Middle East and I personally believe that this chaos is good, it creates opportunities – if one knows how to exploit them,” said Moreno.
Essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS
Brig. Gen. (res.) Dedy Simhi, former chief of staff of the IDF Home Front Command, told JNS on Sunday that the complete collapse of Assad’s regime would “not good for Israel because the alternative might be that these Sunni jihadists, essentially al-Qaeda or ISIS in some form, could rise.”
He added, “I would prefer Assad weakened and bleeding in power rather than Syria completely falling apart. … Israel must sit on the sidelines for now, avoid intervention, and be prepared for anything that might happen.”
Israel’s interest, he argued, is not for Syria to turn into Yemen or Iraq, or Libya. Simhi added that the harm caused to Hezbollah and to Hamas, as well as the destruction of the entire Iranian air defense array on Oct. 26 by the Israeli Air Force, and the Israeli strikes on Yemen, have all weakened the Shi’ite axis.
This led the Sunni rebels to decide to take advantage of the weakness of their enemy, that same Shi’ite axis, and to attack.
“There are other considerations here too,” he added. “Turkey is supporting the rebels—they want to return the four million Syrian refugees to northern Syria.”
Simhi echoed Moreno’s assessment that Israel will be capable of detecting scenarios of advanced weaponry falling into jihadi hands and acting in time if necessary.
Iran and Russia embarrassed
According to a report by Mako on Sunday, “In Iran and Russia, the two biggest patrons of Assad since the middle of the previous decade, it is evident that they were surprised and very embarrassed by the collapse of the Syrian army forces. Direct Iranian and Russian assets were severely damaged in the recent battles, and now there is a frantic effort to try and regain control.”
Iranian interests have suffered notably. “On Wednesday night, Iranian General Qomars Furuhashi, a very senior official in the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, was eliminated on the outskirts of Aleppo,” Mako reported.
The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies provided an in-depth analysis of HTS in August 2023. The organization has changed significantly since its al-Qaeda-affiliated days, the report argued. “HTS’s current political-religious ideology frames the group as strictly Syria-focused and religiously moderate,” the center reported.
Despite efforts to rebrand, concerns persist about HTS’s authoritarian control and threats. “HTS has shown limited tolerance for political dissent, reacting swiftly and harshly to any protests or civilian complaints,” the analysis highlighted. The degree to which the group has the capacity to govern and the nature of its interactions with transnational terrorist groups remain points of contention.
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Iranian Media Claims Obtaining ‘Sensitive’ Israeli Intelligence Materials

FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
i24 News – Iranian and Iran-affiliated media claimed on Saturday that the Islamic Republic had obtained a trove of “strategic and sensitive” Israeli intelligence materials related to Israel’s nuclear facilities and defense plans.
“Iran’s intelligence apparatus has obtained a vast quantity of strategic and sensitive information and documents belonging to the Zionist regime,” Iran’s state broadcaster said, referring to Israel in the manner accepted in those Muslim or Arab states that don’t recognize its legitimacy. The statement was also relayed by the Lebanese site Al-Mayadeen, affiliated with the Iran-backed jihadists of Hezbollah.
The reports did not include any details on the documents or how Iran had obtained them.
The intelligence reportedly included “thousands of documents related to that regime’s nuclear plans and facilities,” it added.
According to the reports, “the data haul was extracted during a covert operation and included a vast volume of materials including documents, images, and videos.”
The report comes amid high tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, over which it is in talks with the US administration of President Donald Trump.
Iranian-Israeli tensions reached an all-time high since the October 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war, including Iranian rocket fire on Israel and Israeli aerial raids in Iran that devastated much of the regime’s air defenses.
Israel, which regards the prospect of the antisemitic mullah regime obtaining a nuclear weapon as an existential threat, has indicated it could resort to a military strike against Iran’s installations should talks fail to curb uranium enrichment.
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Israel Retrieves Body of Thai Hostage from Gaza

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz looks on, amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, in Jerusalem, Nov. 7, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
The Israeli military has retrieved the body of a Thai hostage who had been held in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Saturday.
Nattapong Pinta’s body was held by a Palestinian terrorist group called the Mujahedeen Brigades, and was recovered from the area of Rafah in southern Gaza, Katz said. His family in Thailand has been notified.
Pinta, an agricultural worker, was abducted from Kibbutz Nir Oz, a small Israeli community near the Gaza border where a quarter of the population was killed or taken hostage during the Hamas attack that triggered the devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s military said Pinta had been abducted alive and killed by his captors, who had also killed and taken to Gaza the bodies of two more Israeli-American hostages that were retrieved earlier this week.
There was no immediate comment from the Mujahedeen Brigades, who have previously denied killing their captives, or from Hamas. The Israeli military said the Brigades were still holding the body of another foreign national. Only 20 of the 55 remaining hostages are believed to still be alive.
The Mujahedeen Brigades also held and killed Israeli hostage Shiri Bibas and her two young sons, according to Israeli authorities. Their bodies were returned during a two-month ceasefire, which collapsed in March after the two sides could not agree on terms for extending it to a second phase.
Israel has since expanded its offensive across the Gaza Strip as US, Qatari and Egyptian-led efforts to secure another ceasefire have faltered.
US-BACKED AID GROUP HALTS DISTRIBUTIONS
The United Nations has warned that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli blockade of the enclave, with the rate of young children suffering from acute malnutrition nearly tripling.
Aid distribution was halted on Friday after the US-and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said overcrowding had made it unsafe to continue operations. It was unclear whether aid had resumed on Saturday.
The GHF began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, overseeing a new model of aid distribution which the United Nations says is neither impartial nor neutral. It says it has provided around 9 million meals so far.
The Israeli military said on Saturday that 350 trucks of humanitarian aid belonging to U.N. and other international relief groups were transferred this week via the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
The war erupted after Hamas-led terrorists took 251 hostages and killed 1,200 people, most of them civilians, in the October 7, 2023 attack, Israel’s single deadliest day.
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US Mulls Giving Millions to Controversial Gaza Aid Foundation, Sources Say

Palestinians carry aid supplies which they received from the US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the central Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ramadan Abed/File Photo
The State Department is weighing giving $500 million to the new foundation providing aid to war-shattered Gaza, according to two knowledgeable sources and two former US officials, a move that would involve the US more deeply in a controversial aid effort that has been beset by violence and chaos.
The sources and former US officials, all of whom requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said that money for Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) would come from the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which is being folded into the US State Department.
The plan has met resistance from some US officials concerned with the deadly shootings of Palestinians near aid distribution sites and the competence of the GHF, the two sources said.
The GHF, which has been fiercely criticized by humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations, for an alleged lack of neutrality, began distributing aid last week amid warnings that most of Gaza’s 2.3 million population is at risk of famine after an 11-week Israeli aid blockade, which was lifted on May 19 when limited deliveries were allowed to resume.
The foundation has seen senior personnel quit and had to pause handouts twice this week after crowds overwhelmed its distribution hubs.
The State Department and GHF did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Reuters has been unable to establish who is currently funding the GHF operations, which began in Gaza last week. The GHF uses private US security and logistics companies to transport aid into Gaza for distribution at so-called secure distribution sites.
On Thursday, Reuters reported that a Chicago-based private equity firm, McNally Capital, has an “economic interest” in the for-profit US contractor overseeing the logistics and security of GHF’s aid distribution hubs in the enclave.
While US President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel say they don’t finance the GHF operation, both have been pressing the United Nations and international aid groups to work with it.
The US and Israel argue that aid distributed by a long-established U.N. aid network was diverted to Hamas. Hamas has denied that.
USAID has been all but dismantled. Some 80 percent of its programs have been canceled and its staff face termination as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to align US foreign policy with his “America First” agenda.
One source with knowledge of the matter and one former senior official said the proposal to give the $500 million to GHF has been championed by acting deputy USAID Administrator Ken Jackson, who has helped oversee the agency’s dismemberment.
The source said that Israel requested the funds to underwrite GHF’s operations for 180 days.
The Israeli government did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The two sources said that some US officials have concerns with the plan because of the overcrowding that has affected the aid distribution hubs run by GHF’s contractor, and violence nearby.
Those officials also want well-established non-governmental organizations experienced in running aid operations in Gaza and elsewhere to be involved in the operation if the State Department approves the funds for GHF, a position that Israel likely will oppose, the sources said.
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