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Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year?
A general view shows the Lebanese capital Beirut during the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah, announced on November 27, 2024, expires, there are many questions about the next steps in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army is delaying its mission to take control of the area south of the Litani River, and Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire period beyond 60 days.
Lack of motivation to resume hostilities
It appears, at least superficially, that Hezbollah’s current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. The organization has been undergoing a process of self-examination in light of its defeat in the campaign it initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, as an act of solidarity with Hamas’ barbaric “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of the day before.
The Shiite organization is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion’s share of the organization’s command and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, the boasting about the great defeat of the “Zionist enemy” rings hollow. It is a facade constructed for domestic purposes and nothing more.
Internalizing the dramatic extent of the damage to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed, both defensive and offensive, has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the order of battle and the array of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for maintaining a “second strike” capability against Israel.
Prior to the decimation of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the extraordinary Israeli intelligence operation of September 17, 2024, involving the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah’s headquarters and field ranks was the beginning of the undermining of its status as the main military entity in Lebanon.
The collapse of the Shiite “axis of evil”
The most severe of the many blows Hezbollah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite “axis of evil” in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hezbollah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems, along with the paralysis of additional strategic facilities on October 26, 2024, dramatically accelerated the undermining of Tehran’s grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
Lebanese sources have noted that President Assad’s relations with Hezbollah and even with the Iranians had cooled even before October 7, 2023. Assad was interested in reducing the Iranians’ scope of action in Syrian territory, as well as in limiting Hezbollah’s activity in his country. It is possible that the clock had already begun to tick toward the disintegration of the “axis of evil.” The possibility cannot be ruled out that covert Israeli contact with Assad through an internet communication channel, the existence of which was recently made public, was a factor in accelerating the unraveling of the Shiite axis.
Hezbollah searches its soul
What is Hezbollah’s leadership pondering at this difficult time? They’re not thinking about establishing a commission of inquiry, of course. First and foremost, Hezbollah has to analyze why the war had such disastrous results from its perspective. It will have to consider the security breaches that allowed Israel to penetrate its frameworks so deeply and redesign its strategic approach to continuing the conflict with Israel. This will require tackling dilemmas concerning both the rebuilding of the military force and the training of new fighters. The group will also have to formulate a plan to rebuild the civilian environment in southern Lebanon, where there is a traditional Shiite majority.
The search for a way forward
Hezbollah’s top brass cannot ignore growing voices within the organization advocating a new approach that stresses the movement’s Lebanese identity. If adopted, such an approach could mean a reduction of the organization’s traditional dependence on Iran and more practical and substantial integration into domestic Lebanese politics.
There is no doubt that the election of Joseph Aoun as president, after a prolonged governmental vacuum, and the placement of Nawaf Salam as a leading candidate for prime minister intensify the constraints on Hezbollah’s path in Lebanon. They also constitute a ringing slap in the face for Iran.
A time of opportunity for the moderate Sunni axis
Iran’s current weakness in the Middle East region lays the foundation for the promotion of a pragmatic Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, with Lebanon potentially the first test case of that geostrategic change.
Although it is too early to eulogize Hezbollah as an influential sub-state organization in Lebanon, it seems that President-elect Aoun’s ambitions to implement “one army for one state” and, by implication, disarming Hezbollah with international support give strong signals about the group’s future. It can be cautiously estimated that it will never again be what it once was.
Constraints on Hezbollah
The Western powers’ involvement, particular the leading role of the United States in shaping the face of a renewed Lebanon, will likely serve as a barrier to Hezbollah’s radical wing, which has not abandoned its aspiration of reestablishing its military power as well as Iranian influence in Lebanon.
Still, for the time being, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will renew fire on Israel. This is undoubtedly a manifestation of the remarkable blow the IDF struck against Hezbollah, which until recently was considered the most powerful terrorist army in the world.
Dr. Raphael Buchnik-Chen is a retired colonel and author of the books Diplomat and Secret Man and The Intelligence Failure and the Yom Kippur Surprise. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Israel Blocks Ramallah Meeting with Arab Ministers, Israeli Official Says
A closed Israeli military gate stands near Ramallah in the West Bank, February 18, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
Israel will not allow a planned meeting in the Palestinian administrative capital of Ramallah, in the West Bank, to go ahead, an Israeli official said on Saturday, after Arab ministers planning to attend were stopped from coming.
The move, days after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government announced one of the largest expansions of settlements in the West Bank in years, underlined escalating tensions over the issue of international recognition of a future Palestinian state.
Saturday’s meeting comes ahead of an international conference, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, that is due to be held in New York on June 17-20 to discuss the issue of Palestinian statehood, which Israel fiercely opposes.
The delegation of senior Arab officials due to visit Ramallah – including the Jordanian, Egyptian, Saudi Arabian and Bahraini foreign ministers – postponed the visit after “Israel’s obstruction of it,” Jordan’s foreign ministry said in a statement, adding that the block was “a clear breach of Israel’s obligations as an occupying force.”
The ministers required Israeli consent to travel to the West Bank from Jordan.
An Israeli official said the ministers intended to take part in “a provocative meeting” to discuss promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state.
“Such a state would undoubtedly become a terrorist state in the heart of the land of Israel,” the official said. “Israel will not cooperate with such moves aimed at harming it and its security.”
A Saudi source told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud had delayed a planned trip to the West Bank.
Israel has come under increasing pressure from the United Nations and European countries which favour a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, under which an independent Palestinian state would exist alongside Israel.
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday that recognizing a Palestinian state was not only a “moral duty but a political necessity.”
Palestinians want the West Bank territory, which was seized by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war, as the core of a future state along with Gaza and East Jerusalem.
But the area is now criss-crossed with settlements that have squeezed some 3 million Palestinians into pockets increasingly cut off from each other though a network of military checkpoints.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the announcement this week of 22 new settlements in the West Bank was an “historic moment” for settlements and “a clear message to Macron.” He said recognition of a Palestinian state would be “thrown into the dustbin of history.”
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Gaza Aid Supplies Hit by Looting as Hamas Ceasefire Response Awaited
Palestinians carry aid supplies which they received from the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in the central Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
Armed men hijacked dozens of aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip overnight and hundreds of desperate Palestinians joined in to take supplies, local aid groups said on Saturday as officials waited for Hamas to respond to the latest ceasefire proposals.
The incident was the latest in a series that has underscored the shaky security situation hampering the delivery of aid into Gaza, following the easing of a weeks-long Israeli blockade earlier this month.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he believed a ceasefire agreement was close but Hamas has said it is still studying the latest proposals from his special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The White House said on Thursday that Israel had agreed to the proposals.
The proposals would see a 60-day truce and the exchange of 28 of the 58 hostages still held in Gaza for more than 1,200 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, along with the entry of humanitarian aid into the enclave.
On Saturday, the Israeli military, which relaunched its air and ground campaign in March following a two-month truce, said it was continuing to hit targets in Gaza, including sniper posts and had killed what it said was the head of a Hamas weapons manufacturing site.
The campaign has cleared large areas along the boundaries of the Gaza Strip, squeezing the population of more than 2 million into an ever narrower section along the coast and around the southern city of Khan Younis.
Israel imposed a blockade on all supplies entering the enclave at the beginning of March in an effort to weaken Hamas and has found itself under increasing pressure from an international community shocked by the increasingly desperate humanitarian situation the blockade has created.
The United Nations said on Friday the situation in Gaza is the worst since the start of the war began 19 months ago, with the entire population facing the risk of famine despite a resumption of limited aid deliveries earlier this month.
Israel has been allowing a limited number of trucks from the World Food Program and other international groups to bring flour to bakeries in Gaza but deliveries have been hampered by repeated incidents of looting.
At the same time, a separate system, run by a US-backed group called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation has been delivering meals and food packages at three designated distribution sites.
However, aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF, which they say is not neutral, and say the amount of aid allowed in falls far short of the needs of a population at risk of famine.
“The aid that’s being sent now makes a mockery of the mass tragedy unfolding under our watch,” Philippe Lazzarini, head of the main U.N. relief organization for Palestinians, said in a message on the social media platform X.
NO BREAD IN WEEKS
The World Food Program said it brought 77 trucks carrying flour into Gaza overnight and early on Saturday and all of them were stopped on the way, with food taken by hungry people.
“After nearly 80 days of a total blockade, communities are starving and they are no longer willing to watch food pass them by,” it said in a statement.
Amjad Al-Shawa, head of an umbrella group representing Palestinian aid groups, said the dire situation was being exploited by armed groups which were attacking some of the aid convoys.
He said hundreds more trucks were needed and accused Israel of a “systematic policy of starvation.”
Overnight on Saturday, he said trucks had been stopped by armed groups near Khan Younis as they were headed towards a World Food Programme warehouse in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza and hundreds of desperate people had carried off supplies.
“We could understand that some are driven by hunger and starvation, some may not have eaten bread in several weeks, but we can’t understand armed looting, and it is not acceptable at all,” he said.
Israel says it is facilitating aid deliveries, pointing to its endorsement of the new GHF distribution centers and its consent for other aid trucks to enter Gaza.
Instead it accuses Hamas of stealing supplies intended for civilians and using them to entrench its hold on Gaza, which it had been running since 2007.
The post Gaza Aid Supplies Hit by Looting as Hamas Ceasefire Response Awaited first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Hamas Seeks Changes in US Gaza Proposal; Witkoff Calls Response ‘Unacceptable’
US President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy-designate Steve Witkoff gives a speech at the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena on the inauguration day of Trump’s second presidential term, in Washington, DC, Jan. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Hamas said on Saturday it was seeking amendments to a US-backed proposal for a temporary ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, but President Donald Trump’s envoy rejected the group’s response as “totally unacceptable.”
The Palestinian terrorist group said it was willing to release 10 living hostages and hand over the bodies of 18 dead in exchange for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons. But Hamas reiterated demands for an end to the war and withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, conditions Israel has rejected.
A Hamas official described the group’s response to the proposals from Trump’s special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff as “positive” but said it was seeking some amendments. The official did not elaborate on the changes being sought by the group.
“This response aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and to ensure the flow of humanitarian aid to our people in the Strip,” Hamas said in a statement.
The proposals would see a 60-day truce and the exchange of 28 of the 58 hostages still held in Gaza for more than 1,200 Palestinian prisoners and detainees, along with the entry of humanitarian aid into the enclave.
A Palestinian official familiar with the talks told Reuters that among amendments Hamas is seeking is the release of the hostages in three phases over the 60-day truce and more aid distribution in different areas. Hamas also wants guarantees the deal will lead to a permanent ceasefire, the official said.
There was no immediate response from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office to the Hamas statement.
Israel has previously rejected Hamas’ conditions, instead demanding the complete disarmament of the group and its dismantling as a military and governing force, along with the return of all 58 remaining hostages.
Trump said on Friday he believed a ceasefire agreement was close after the latest proposals, and the White House said on Thursday that Israel had agreed to the terms.
Saying he had received Hamas’ response, Witkoff wrote in a posting on X: “It is totally unacceptable and only takes us backward. Hamas should accept the framework proposal we put forward as the basis for proximity talks, which we can begin immediately this coming week.”
On Saturday, the Israeli military said it had killed Mohammad Sinwar, Hamas’ Gaza chief on May 13, confirming what Netanyahu said earlier this week.
Sinwar, the younger brother of Yahya Sinwar, the group’s deceased leader and mastermind of the October 2023 attack on Israel, was the target of an Israeli strike on a hospital in southern Gaza. Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied his death.
The Israeli military, which relaunched its air and ground campaign in March following a two-month truce, said on Saturday it was continuing to hit targets in Gaza, including sniper posts and had killed what it said was the head of a Hamas weapons manufacturing site.
The campaign has cleared large areas along the boundaries of the Gaza Strip, squeezing the population of more than 2 million into an ever narrower section along the coast and around the southern city of Khan Younis.
Israel imposed a blockade on all supplies entering the enclave at the beginning of March in an effort to weaken Hamas and has found itself under increasing pressure from an international community shocked by the desperate humanitarian situation the blockade has created.
On Saturday, aid groups said dozens of World Food Program trucks carrying flour to Gaza bakeries had been hijacked by armed groups and subsequently looted by people desperate for food after weeks of mounting hunger.
“After nearly 80 days of a total blockade, communities are starving and they are no longer willing to watch food pass them by,” the WFP said in a statement.
‘A MOCKERY’
The incident was the latest in a series that has underscored the shaky security situation hampering the delivery of aid into Gaza, following the easing of a weeks-long Israeli blockade earlier this month.
The United Nations said on Friday the situation in Gaza is the worst since the start of the war 19 months ago, with the entire population facing the risk of famine despite a resumption of limited aid deliveries earlier this month.
“The aid that’s being sent now makes a mockery of the mass tragedy unfolding under our watch,” Philippe Lazzarini, head of the main U.N. relief organization for Palestinians, said in a message on X.
Israel has been allowing a limited number of trucks from the World Food Program and other international groups to bring flour to bakeries in Gaza but deliveries have been hampered by repeated incidents of looting.
A separate system, run by a US-backed group called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, has been delivering meals and food packages at three designated distribution sites.
However, aid groups have refused to cooperate with the GHF, which they say is not neutral, and say the amount of aid allowed in falls far short of the needs of a population at risk of famine.
Amjad Al-Shawa, head of an umbrella group representing Palestinian aid groups, said the dire situation was being exploited by armed groups which were attacking some of the aid convoys.
He said hundreds more trucks were needed and accused Israel of a “systematic policy of starvation.”
Israel denies operating a policy of starvation and says it is facilitating aid deliveries, pointing to its endorsement of the new GHF distribution centers and its consent for other aid trucks to enter Gaza.
Instead it accuses Hamas of stealing supplies intended for civilians and using them to entrench its hold on Gaza, which it had been running since 2007.
Hamas denies looting supplies and has executed a number of suspected looters.
The post Hamas Seeks Changes in US Gaza Proposal; Witkoff Calls Response ‘Unacceptable’ first appeared on Algemeiner.com.