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Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year?

A general view shows the Lebanese capital Beirut during the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah, announced on November 27, 2024, expires, there are many questions about the next steps in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army is delaying its mission to take control of the area south of the Litani River, and Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire period beyond 60 days.
Lack of motivation to resume hostilities
It appears, at least superficially, that Hezbollah’s current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. The organization has been undergoing a process of self-examination in light of its defeat in the campaign it initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, as an act of solidarity with Hamas’ barbaric “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of the day before.
The Shiite organization is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion’s share of the organization’s command and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, the boasting about the great defeat of the “Zionist enemy” rings hollow. It is a facade constructed for domestic purposes and nothing more.
Internalizing the dramatic extent of the damage to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed, both defensive and offensive, has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the order of battle and the array of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for maintaining a “second strike” capability against Israel.
Prior to the decimation of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the extraordinary Israeli intelligence operation of September 17, 2024, involving the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah’s headquarters and field ranks was the beginning of the undermining of its status as the main military entity in Lebanon.
The collapse of the Shiite “axis of evil”
The most severe of the many blows Hezbollah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite “axis of evil” in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hezbollah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems, along with the paralysis of additional strategic facilities on October 26, 2024, dramatically accelerated the undermining of Tehran’s grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
Lebanese sources have noted that President Assad’s relations with Hezbollah and even with the Iranians had cooled even before October 7, 2023. Assad was interested in reducing the Iranians’ scope of action in Syrian territory, as well as in limiting Hezbollah’s activity in his country. It is possible that the clock had already begun to tick toward the disintegration of the “axis of evil.” The possibility cannot be ruled out that covert Israeli contact with Assad through an internet communication channel, the existence of which was recently made public, was a factor in accelerating the unraveling of the Shiite axis.
Hezbollah searches its soul
What is Hezbollah’s leadership pondering at this difficult time? They’re not thinking about establishing a commission of inquiry, of course. First and foremost, Hezbollah has to analyze why the war had such disastrous results from its perspective. It will have to consider the security breaches that allowed Israel to penetrate its frameworks so deeply and redesign its strategic approach to continuing the conflict with Israel. This will require tackling dilemmas concerning both the rebuilding of the military force and the training of new fighters. The group will also have to formulate a plan to rebuild the civilian environment in southern Lebanon, where there is a traditional Shiite majority.
The search for a way forward
Hezbollah’s top brass cannot ignore growing voices within the organization advocating a new approach that stresses the movement’s Lebanese identity. If adopted, such an approach could mean a reduction of the organization’s traditional dependence on Iran and more practical and substantial integration into domestic Lebanese politics.
There is no doubt that the election of Joseph Aoun as president, after a prolonged governmental vacuum, and the placement of Nawaf Salam as a leading candidate for prime minister intensify the constraints on Hezbollah’s path in Lebanon. They also constitute a ringing slap in the face for Iran.
A time of opportunity for the moderate Sunni axis
Iran’s current weakness in the Middle East region lays the foundation for the promotion of a pragmatic Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, with Lebanon potentially the first test case of that geostrategic change.
Although it is too early to eulogize Hezbollah as an influential sub-state organization in Lebanon, it seems that President-elect Aoun’s ambitions to implement “one army for one state” and, by implication, disarming Hezbollah with international support give strong signals about the group’s future. It can be cautiously estimated that it will never again be what it once was.
Constraints on Hezbollah
The Western powers’ involvement, particular the leading role of the United States in shaping the face of a renewed Lebanon, will likely serve as a barrier to Hezbollah’s radical wing, which has not abandoned its aspiration of reestablishing its military power as well as Iranian influence in Lebanon.
Still, for the time being, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will renew fire on Israel. This is undoubtedly a manifestation of the remarkable blow the IDF struck against Hezbollah, which until recently was considered the most powerful terrorist army in the world.
Dr. Raphael Buchnik-Chen is a retired colonel and author of the books Diplomat and Secret Man and The Intelligence Failure and the Yom Kippur Surprise. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Israeli Strike on Tehran Kills Bodyguard of Slain Hezbollah Chief

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi lays a wreath as he visits the burial site of former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, on the outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon, June 3, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A member of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was killed in an Israeli air strike on Tehran alongside a member of an Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group, a senior Lebanese security source told Reuters and the Iraqi group said on Saturday.
The source identified the Hezbollah member as Abu Ali Khalil, who had served as a bodyguard for Hezbollah’s slain chief Hassan Nasrallah. The source said Khalil had been on a religious pilgrimage to Iraq when he met up with a member of the Kataeb Sayyed Al-Shuhada group.
They traveled together to Tehran and were both killed in an Israeli strike there, along with Khalil’s son, the senior security source said. Hezbollah has not joined in Iran’s air strikes against Israel from Lebanon.
Kataeb Sayyed Al-Shuhada published a statement confirming that both the head of its security unit and Khalil had been killed in an Israeli strike.
Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli aerial attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs in September.
Israel and Iran have been trading strikes for nine consecutive days since Israel launched attacks on Iran, saying Tehran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Iran has said it does not seek nuclear weapons.
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Hamas Financial Officer and Commander Eliminated by IDF in the Gaza Strip

Israeli soldiers operate during a ground operation in the southern Gaza Strip, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, July 3, 2024. Photo: Ohad Zwigenberg/Pool via REUTERS
i24 News – The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), in cooperation with the General Security Service (Shin Bet), announced on Friday the killing of Ibrahim Abu Shamala, a senior financial official in Hamas’ military wing.
The operation took place on June 17th in the central Gaza Strip.
Abu Shamala held several key positions, including financial officer for Hamas’ military wing and assistant to Marwan Issa, the deputy commander of Hamas’ military wing until his elimination in March 2024.
He was responsible for managing all the financial resources of Hamas’ military wing in Gaza, overseeing the planning and execution of the group’s war budget. This involved handling and smuggling millions of dollars into the Gaza Strip to fund Hamas’ military operations.
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Report: Wary of Assassination by Israel, Khamenei Names 3 Potential Successors

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, May 20, 2025. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
i24 News – Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei named three senior clerics as candidates to succeed him should he be killed, the New York Times reported on Saturday citing unnamed Iranian officials. It is understood the Ayatollah fears he could be assassinated in the coming days.
Khamenei reportedly mostly speaks with his commanders through a trusted aide now, suspending electronic communications.
Khamenei has designated three senior religious figures as candidates to replace him as well as choosing successors in the military chain of command in the likely event that additional senior officials be eliminated.
Earlier on Saturday Israel confirmed the elimination of Saeed Izadi and Bhanam Shahriari.
Shahriari, head of Iran’s Quds Force Weapons Transfer Unit, responsible for arming Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, was killed in an Israeli airstrike over 1,000 km from Israel in western Iran.
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