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Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year?

A general view shows the Lebanese capital Beirut during the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, in Beirut, Lebanon, January 1, 2025. REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh
As the formal ceasefire between the IDF and Hezbollah, announced on November 27, 2024, expires, there are many questions about the next steps in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese army is delaying its mission to take control of the area south of the Litani River, and Israel has made clear that it will not withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah outposts remain in the area. There is therefore a chance that both parties will agree to an extension of the ceasefire period beyond 60 days.
Lack of motivation to resume hostilities
It appears, at least superficially, that Hezbollah’s current motivation to resume hostilities against Israel is low. The organization has been undergoing a process of self-examination in light of its defeat in the campaign it initiated against Israel on October 8, 2023, as an act of solidarity with Hamas’ barbaric “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack of the day before.
The Shiite organization is trying to broadcast an image of a glorious victory, but with its mythical leader Hassan Nasrallah eliminated by Israel along with the lion’s share of the organization’s command and about 2,500 of its field operatives killed as well, the boasting about the great defeat of the “Zionist enemy” rings hollow. It is a facade constructed for domestic purposes and nothing more.
Internalizing the dramatic extent of the damage to Hezbollah
Hezbollah acknowledges that the vast arsenal of weapons it had amassed, both defensive and offensive, has been substantially eroded by Israel. This includes substantial damage to the order of battle and the array of medium- and long-range ballistic missiles that had been cultivated and maintained by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, both as a means of deterrence and as an Iranian front line for maintaining a “second strike” capability against Israel.
Prior to the decimation of Hezbollah’s arsenal, the extraordinary Israeli intelligence operation of September 17, 2024, involving the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah’s headquarters and field ranks was the beginning of the undermining of its status as the main military entity in Lebanon.
The collapse of the Shiite “axis of evil”
The most severe of the many blows Hezbollah suffered was the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. For many years, the Syrian regime played a central role in preserving the Shiite “axis of evil” in both logistical and ideological terms, with the goal of maintaining Hezbollah as an active arm against Israel. No less than this, the dramatic damage Israel inflicted on Iran in the reciprocal attack aimed at its air defense systems, along with the paralysis of additional strategic facilities on October 26, 2024, dramatically accelerated the undermining of Tehran’s grip and regional aspirations, particularly in Lebanon.
Lebanese sources have noted that President Assad’s relations with Hezbollah and even with the Iranians had cooled even before October 7, 2023. Assad was interested in reducing the Iranians’ scope of action in Syrian territory, as well as in limiting Hezbollah’s activity in his country. It is possible that the clock had already begun to tick toward the disintegration of the “axis of evil.” The possibility cannot be ruled out that covert Israeli contact with Assad through an internet communication channel, the existence of which was recently made public, was a factor in accelerating the unraveling of the Shiite axis.
Hezbollah searches its soul
What is Hezbollah’s leadership pondering at this difficult time? They’re not thinking about establishing a commission of inquiry, of course. First and foremost, Hezbollah has to analyze why the war had such disastrous results from its perspective. It will have to consider the security breaches that allowed Israel to penetrate its frameworks so deeply and redesign its strategic approach to continuing the conflict with Israel. This will require tackling dilemmas concerning both the rebuilding of the military force and the training of new fighters. The group will also have to formulate a plan to rebuild the civilian environment in southern Lebanon, where there is a traditional Shiite majority.
The search for a way forward
Hezbollah’s top brass cannot ignore growing voices within the organization advocating a new approach that stresses the movement’s Lebanese identity. If adopted, such an approach could mean a reduction of the organization’s traditional dependence on Iran and more practical and substantial integration into domestic Lebanese politics.
There is no doubt that the election of Joseph Aoun as president, after a prolonged governmental vacuum, and the placement of Nawaf Salam as a leading candidate for prime minister intensify the constraints on Hezbollah’s path in Lebanon. They also constitute a ringing slap in the face for Iran.
A time of opportunity for the moderate Sunni axis
Iran’s current weakness in the Middle East region lays the foundation for the promotion of a pragmatic Sunni axis led by Saudi Arabia, with Lebanon potentially the first test case of that geostrategic change.
Although it is too early to eulogize Hezbollah as an influential sub-state organization in Lebanon, it seems that President-elect Aoun’s ambitions to implement “one army for one state” and, by implication, disarming Hezbollah with international support give strong signals about the group’s future. It can be cautiously estimated that it will never again be what it once was.
Constraints on Hezbollah
The Western powers’ involvement, particular the leading role of the United States in shaping the face of a renewed Lebanon, will likely serve as a barrier to Hezbollah’s radical wing, which has not abandoned its aspiration of reestablishing its military power as well as Iranian influence in Lebanon.
Still, for the time being, it is unlikely that Hezbollah will renew fire on Israel. This is undoubtedly a manifestation of the remarkable blow the IDF struck against Hezbollah, which until recently was considered the most powerful terrorist army in the world.
Dr. Raphael Buchnik-Chen is a retired colonel and author of the books Diplomat and Secret Man and The Intelligence Failure and the Yom Kippur Surprise. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
The post Did Hezbollah Suffer a Defeat Last Year? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Iran Says Eight Arrested for Suspected Links to Israel’s Mossad Spy Agency

The Mossad recruitment ad. Photo: Screenshot.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday they had arrested eight people suspected of trying to transmit the coordinates of sensitive sites and details about senior military figures to Israel’s Mossad, Iranian state media reported.
They are accused of having provided the information to the Mossad spy agency during Israel’s air war on Iran in June, when it attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and killed top military commanders as well as civilians in the worst blow to the Islamic Republic since the 1980s war with Iraq.
Iran retaliated with barrages of missiles on Israeli military sites, infrastructure and cities. The United States entered the war on June 22 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
A Guards statement alleged that the suspects had received specialized training from Mossad via online platforms. It said they were apprehended in northeastern Iran before carrying out their plans, and that materials for making launchers, bombs, explosives and booby traps had been seized.
State media reported earlier this month that Iranian police had arrested as many as 21,000 “suspects” during the 12-day war with Israel, though they did not say what these people had been suspected of doing.
Security forces conducted a campaign of widespread arrests and also stepped up their street presence during the brief war that ended in a US-brokered ceasefire.
Iran has executed at least eight people in recent months, including nuclear scientist Rouzbeh Vadi, hanged on August 9 for passing information to Israel about another scientist killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Human rights groups say Iran uses espionage charges and fast-tracked executions as tools for broader political repression.
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Body of Idan Shtivi, Murdered on Oct. 7, Retrieved from Gaza in Special IDF Operation

Idan Shtivi. Photo: Courtesy of the family
i24 News – The body of Idan Shtivi, a 28-year-old murdered by Palestinian jihadists at the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023, was recovered in a joint operation by the IDF and Shin Bet in central Gaza, it was cleared for publication on Saturday.
Shtivi’s remains were returned to Israel alongside the body of Ilan Weiss, another hostage killed during the October 7 massacre.
“Idan Shtivi was abducted from the Tel Gama area and brutally murdered by Hamas terrorists after acting to rescue and evacuate others from the Nova music festival on October 7th, 2023. He was 28 years old at the time of his death,” read an IDF press release.
“Following an identification process conducted at the National Center for Forensic Medicine, along with the Israel Police and the Military Rabbinate, the Hostages and Missing Persons Headquarters notified his family.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Shviti “was a gifted student of sustainability and governance, and a courageous individual” who acted heroically on October 7, helping others flee.
“He was killed in the process and his body was abducted to Gaza by Hamas. My wife and I send our heartfelt condolences to the Shtivi family. So far, 207 hostages have been returned, 148 of them alive. We will continue to act tirelessly and decisively to bring back all our hostages—living and deceased.”
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Woman Stabbed at Ottawa Grocery Store in Latest Antisemitic Attack

A social media post by the alleged attacker, Joseph Rooke of Cornwall, Ontario. Photo: Screenshot via i24
i24 News – The stabbing of a Jewish woman at an Ottawa grocery by a man with a long history of antisemitic posts on social media, the latest antisemitic hate crime in Canada, sparked outrage and prompted condemnation from officials including the prime minister.
Both the victim and the attacker are in their 70s. The woman is reportedly in serious condition.
The suspect was identified as Joseph Rooke, who has authored a series of lengthy rambling screeds on social media, ranting against Israel and Jews.
“Judaism is the world’s oldest cult,” he writes in one post, going on to say “over time jews have become insidious in governments, businesses, media conglomerates, and educational institutions in order to do what they do better than anyone else. Jews are the world’s masters of propaganda, gaslighting, demonization, demagoguery, and outright lying. Using their collective wealth they have become masters of reprisal.”
“I am under no obligation whatsoever, legal, moral, or otherwise, to like jews and I do not. If that means I meet the jewish definition of an anti-semite, so be it.”
Canada has seen a steep spike in antisemitic attacks over the past two years, including a recent incident in Montreal where a Hasidic Jew was beaten in front on his children.
After Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the incident, many, including former Israel’s ambassador the US Michael Oren, pointed out that Carney’s rhetoric and policies contribute to the increasing insecurity of Canada’s Jewish community through uncritical embrace of outrageous and easily disprovable allegations that Israel and its supporters were guilty of the worst crimes against humanity.