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Did Israel Just Admit That 83% of Gaza’s Casualties Were Civilians?
An Israeli soldier stands on a tank on the Israeli side of the border with Gaza, Israel, Aug. 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
A widely reported story from The Guardian was headlined: “Revealed: Israeli military’s own data indicates civilian death rate of 83% in Gaza war.”
Yet neither Israel’s data — nor even The Guardian’s own article — actually support that absurd headline.
At RealityCheck, we don’t typically bother with absurd headlines, because our focus leans more toward making real policy changes. This particular headline, however, has been widely quoted on social media and even in some policy circles as “proof” that Israel is targeting civilians.
To reach its delusional conclusion, The Guardian claimed, “Figures from classified IDF database listed 8,900 named fighters as dead or probably dead in May, as overall death toll reached 53,000.” [emphasis added]
The Guardian goes on to reason that 8,900 named terrorists account for roughly 17% of the total number of people Hamas claims were killed.
Based on this logic, The Guardian unilaterally concluded that all other deaths (i.e. 83%) must have been entirely civilians.
That, of course, is not what the quoted data says: just because the IDF did not list a fighter’s name does not mean that person was a civilian.
Furthermore, The Guardian’s logic assumes that Hamas’ total figure is completely reliable, which is also doubtful — because Hamas is an internationally designated terror organization, listed alongside ISIS and Al-Qaeda: groups that have never been considered reliable news sources.
A few of the many non-civilians eliminated by the IDF in Gaza, via IDF.
The Guardian got its story from +972 Magazine, an Israel-based website that is both foreign funded and furiously anti-Israel. The website bases its entire article on — you guessed it — anonymous sources.
As we’ve discussed before, anonymous sources are notoriously unreliable, and sometimes can even be entirely falsified.
So what are the real numbers?
The most recent IDF figure from January states that 20,000 Hamas fighters were killed (far more than the 8,900 The Guardian claims), and there has been over half a year of intense combat since that time, which means the actual figure is now even higher.
Yet there is an even more dramatic development in Gaza casualty data: this month, Hamas’ “Ministry of Health” published a list of the more than 60,000 alleged deaths in Gaza in this war, up to the end of July.
As a rule, Hamas figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, however, according to Hamas’ own figures:
- 32,113 deaths were males of combat age (15–65)*
- 12,875 were children (under 15)
- 12,067 were women (15–65)
- 3,094 were elderly (65+)
*According to Hamas’ rules, “combat age” is (tragically) as young as 15.
Photo: Screenshot from the Hebrew language portal of the Gaza Ministry of Health website, originally captured by the Israeli website Abualiexpress.
If one does some basic math on those figures, they reveal that MOST of the casualties in Gaza (53.3%) were males of combat age, even though that demographic accounts for only 29% of Gaza’s population.
This is according to Hamas figures, which are notoriously unreliable. In all likelihood, the truth may be even more skewed toward the combat demographic.
That means the myth that most casualties are women and children (which was never true) is now supported by — literally no one.
Yet, somehow, none of this made it into The Guardian’s article.
I wonder why?
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
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After False Dawns, Gazans Hope Trump Will Force End to Two-Year-Old War
Palestinians walk past a residential building destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, after Hamas agreed to release hostages and accept some other terms in a US plan to end the war, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa
Exhausted Palestinians in Gaza clung to hopes on Saturday that US President Donald Trump would keep up pressure on Israel to end a two-year-old war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced the entire population of more than two million.
Hamas’ declaration that it was ready to hand over hostages and accept some terms of Trump’s plan to end the conflict while calling for more talks on several key issues was greeted with relief in the enclave, where most homes are now in ruins.
“It’s happy news, it saves those who are still alive,” said 32-year-old Saoud Qarneyta, reacting to Hamas’ response and Trump’s intervention. “This is enough. Houses have been damaged, everything has been damaged, what is left? Nothing.”
GAZAN RESIDENT HOPES ‘WE WILL BE DONE WITH WARS’
Ismail Zayda, 40, a father of three, displaced from a suburb in northern Gaza City where Israel launched a full-scale ground operation last month, said: “We want President Trump to keep pushing for an end to the war, if this chance is lost, it means that Gaza City will be destroyed by Israel and we might not survive.
“Enough, two years of bombardment, death and starvation. Enough,” he told Reuters on a social media chat.
“God willing this will be the last war. We will hopefully be done with the wars,” said 59-year-old Ali Ahmad, speaking in one of the tented camps where most Palestinians now live.
“We urge all sides not to backtrack. Every day of delay costs lives in Gaza, it is not just time wasted, lives get wasted too,” said Tamer Al-Burai, a Gaza City businessman displaced with members of his family in central Gaza Strip.
After two previous ceasefires — one near the start of the war and another earlier this year — lasted only a few weeks, he said; “I am very optimistic this time, maybe Trump’s seeking to be remembered as a man of peace, will bring us real peace this time.”
RESIDENT WORRIES THAT NETANYAHU WILL ‘SABOTAGE’ DEAL
Some voiced hopes of returning to their homes, but the Israeli military issued a fresh warning to Gazans on Saturday to stay out of Gaza City, describing it as a “dangerous combat zone.”
Gazans have faced previous false dawns during the past two years, when Trump and others declared at several points during on-off negotiations between Hamas, Israel and Arab and US mediators that a deal was close, only for war to rage on.
“Will it happen? Can we trust Trump? Maybe we trust Trump, but will Netanyahu abide this time? He has always sabotaged everything and continued the war. I hope he ends it now,” said Aya, 31, who was displaced with her family to Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip.
She added: “Maybe there is a chance the war ends at October 7, two years after it began.”
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Mass Rally in Rome on Fourth Day of Italy’s Pro-Palestinian Protests
A Pro-Palestinian demonstrator waves a Palestinian flag during a national protest for Gaza in Rome, Italy, October 4, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Claudia Greco
Large crowds assembled in central Rome on Saturday for the fourth straight day of protests in Italy since Israel intercepted an international flotilla trying to deliver aid to Gaza, and detained its activists.
People holding banners and Palestinian flags, chanting “Free Palestine” and other slogans, filed past the Colosseum, taking part in a march that organizers hoped would attract at least 1 million people.
“I’m here with a lot of other friends because I think it is important for us all to mobilize individually,” Francesco Galtieri, a 65-year-old musician from Rome, said. “If we don’t all mobilize, then nothing will change.”
Since Israel started blocking the flotilla late on Wednesday, protests have sprung up across Europe and in other parts of the world, but in Italy they have been a daily occurrence, in multiple cities.
On Friday, unions called a general strike in support of the flotilla, with demonstrations across the country that attracted more than 2 million, according to organizers. The interior ministry estimated attendance at around 400,000.
Italy’s right-wing government has been critical of the protests, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suggesting that people would skip work for Gaza just as an excuse for a longer weekend break.
On Saturday, Meloni blamed protesters for insulting graffiti that appeared on a statue of the late Pope John Paul II outside Rome’s main train station, where Pro-Palestinian groups have been holding a protest picket.
“They say they are taking to the streets for peace, but then they insult the memory of a man who was a true defender and builder of peace. A shameful act committed by people blinded by ideology,” she said in a statement.
Israel launched its Gaza offensive after Hamas terrorists staged a cross border attack on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 people hostage.
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Hamas Says It Agrees to Release All Israeli Hostages Under Trump Gaza Plan
Smoke rises during an Israeli military operation in Gaza City, as seen from the central Gaza Strip, October 2, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Dawoud Abu Alkas
Hamas said on Friday it had agreed to release all Israeli hostages, alive or dead, under the terms of US President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal, and signaled readiness to immediately enter mediated negotiations to discuss the details.