RSS
Does America Have a Plan Once Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies?
Since 1989, the unwavering grip of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has cast a long shadow over the Middle East, surviving the terms of six US presidents.
This period has been characterized by a strategic game of political chess, with Iran often playing a destabilizing role in the region. US presidents, CIA directors, and the broader US intelligence community have kept a diligent watch over Iran’s maneuvers. The 1979 revolution, which fundamentally transformed the societal and political landscape of Iran, marked the beginning of an era that the White House has monitored with acute vigilance, particularly the actions and evil intentions of Tehran’s mullah regime.
In the ever-shifting sands of US politics, marked by bipartisan candidates and fluctuating party influences, the question of which party will lead the nation next remains open. Amidst this uncertainty, Iran’s strategic posture and internal dynamics consistently emerge as points of contention and discussion among both Democrats and Republicans. Democratic presidents such as Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden have sought engagement strategies with Tehran’s clerical leadership, aiming to temper Iran’s regional ambitions through diplomacy and dialogue. However, these efforts have often been met with limited success, mired by complex geopolitical realities and Iran’s intricate internal politics.
In contrast, Republican presidents have typically favored a more hard-line approach, symbolizing a show of strength and resolve. Yet, despite their tougher stance, the idea of directly instigating regime change in Iran has remained a complex issue, often sidestepped in Washington D.C.’s political discussions. This hesitance reflects the complexities and potential repercussions of altering Iran’s power structure, a task fraught with unpredictable outcomes.
Throughout this era, spanning over three decades, all six US presidents have closely observed the significant nationwide anti-regime protests in Iran, indicative of widespread public dissent against Khamenei’s authoritarian rule. This sustained observation underscores the geopolitical significance of Iran in US foreign policy. Meanwhile, the American democratic process has seen six presidents come and go, each elected through the people’s mandate — a stark contrast to the narrative in Iran, where Khamenei has wielded power under the guise of divine right, unchallenged and unyielding.
The impending post-Khamenei era in Iran teeters on the brink of uncertainty. The absence of a clear and widely accepted successor poses a significant challenge. The proposition of installing Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son, or Ebrahim Raisi is seen by many as an outright affront to the Iranian public, reminiscent of dynastic successions in Islamic history. Such a move could precipitate the further unraveling of Iranian society, already seething with deep-rooted animosity towards the Mullah regime.
Since the Islamic Marxist revolt in 1979, Iran has undergone a transformation marked by increasing corruption and societal decay. The once revered notion of religion has been co-opted as a tool for amassing wealth and consolidating power. This period has been punctuated by heinous crimes committed in the name of preserving power. The Islamic caliphate’s history is a testament to the continuous struggle for power and dominance, often marred by violence and internal purges.
The current Shia mullah’s regime in Iran reflects aspects of the historical Islamic caliphates, spanning a 1,400-year legacy, with Khomeini’s movement marking the beginning of a new era of authoritarianism. The destructive ideology of Khomeinism, with its roots in savagery and criminality, ascended to power through manipulation rather than democratic means. Since 1979, Iran has been governed by a regime where the Supreme Leader interferes in all state affairs, placing himself above the law. The concept of Wilayat al-Faqih, central to this governance model, lacks any genuine legal or moral foundation.
Iran today stands precariously at the brink of social unrest and potential upheaval. The government’s response to dissent has been characterized by brutal suppression, relying on religious authority and force to maintain control. The regime’s legitimacy is increasingly questioned, with social media playing a pivotal role in exposing its fragilities.
As we contemplate the future, the question of whether the Islamic Republic will collapse during Khamenei’s lifetime looms large. The current level of suppression, coupled with disorganized opposition and remnants of the 1979 revolt, makes such an outcome uncertain. None of them are serious for the White House. Yet, upon Khamenei’s death, the Iranian populace might become uncontrollable, driven by pent-up frustration, and a lack of respect for the regime. Is there any plan in Washington?
During Khamenei’s eventual funeral ceremonies, the government is likely to engage in extensive propaganda and displays of power, focusing on introducing the third caliph. However, the fear of a public uprising looms large. Iran’s internal situation is catastrophic, resembling a nation plundered and awaiting an imminent economic tsunami. The government flounders, devoid of competence and direction.
This critical period may represent a turning point in Iran’s contemporary history. Yet, the Iranian opposition, fragmented and lacking a unified vision, is ill-prepared to offer a viable alternative. Despite this, figures like Prince Reza Pahlavi hold significant sway, particularly among younger generations, owing to the enduring credibility of the Pahlavi name in Iran’s modern history. However, there appears to be no inclination from the White House to engage with him.
In closing, Iran stands at a crossroads, with its people holding the key to any substantial change. The unfolding narrative of succession and the potential downfall of the Mullahs’ Republic pose profound questions about Iran’s future and its impact on global politics. The coming months may shed more light on the potential paths Iran may take, in a landscape rife with uncertainty and anticipation. It is likely that briefings in the White House will be extensively focused on developments in Iran.
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and ethnic conflicts in MENA. He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA). Erfan is a Jewish Kurd of Iran, and he is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. / Follow him from this twitter account @EQFARD / The newly published book of Erfan Fard is: “The Black Shabbat” (Israel, the target of terrorist), which has been published in the USA. www.erfanfard.com
The post Does America Have a Plan Once Iran’s Supreme Leader Dies? first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Tourists Stranded in Israel as Sirens Sound, Missiles Fly, Planes Grounded
FILE PHOTO: A worker at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel sits at the arrivals terminal as all flights from and to the airport are indicated cancel, following an Israeli attack on Iran. June 13, 2025 Photo: REUTERS/Tomer Appelbaum
Woken by air raid sirens, hurrying to bomb shelters, scouring travel sites for escape routes — thousands of tourists in Israel have found their holiday plans upended by the country’s conflict with Iran.
Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in the early hours of Friday, shutting down the national airspace and telling people to remain where they were as the arch Middle East foes traded deadly blows.
The violence has left around 40,000 tourists blocked in Israel, according to the Ministry of Tourism. Airlines are cancelling flights until further notice, leaving travelers to decide whether to wait it out or seek costly detours through neighboring countries.
Justin Joyner, from California, is on holiday in Jerusalem with his father John, who lives in Nevada, and his son. They had expected some possible disruption, with Israel locked in a months-long conflict against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.
But, like most locals, they did not foresee a whole new war.
“We didn’t expect Israel to attack Iran. That is a completely different level of escalation,” Joyner said from his hotel in East Jerusalem, which, for the past two nights, has seen Iranian ballistic missiles flash overhead like a rain of meteorites.
“It’s unsettling to feel the shockwaves of intercepted missiles above you, and to take your family down to a bomb shelter. That’s just something we don’t think about in America,” he said.
Dr. Greer Glazer, who lives in Cleveland and was in Jerusalem for a nursing training program, faces a race down 10 flights of stairs in her hotel to reach the shelter when sirens sound — as they have done regularly since Friday night.
“I feel safe,” she said, “but waking from a dead sleep and running to the safe room, that’s been the hardest. My family is scared to death … They think it’s 24/7 destruction, but it’s not like that.”
THE JORDAN ROUTE
Glazer had been due to return home on June 29, but is looking to bring forward her departure. The easiest exit route is via land crossings into neighboring Jordan and then a flight out of Amman airport which has been operating in daylight hours.
Israeli media reported that the transgender US influencer Caitlyn Jenner, who only flew into Israel on Thursday for Tel Aviv’s since-canceled Gay Pride Parade, had left through Jordan.
Hours earlier, she had been photographed drinking a glass of red wine in a bomb shelter. “What an incredible way it has been to celebrate Shabbat,” she wrote on X.
Not everyone is rushing to leave.
Karen Tuhrim is visiting from London to see her daughter, who lives in Tel Aviv. “Within two days of being here, Israel attacked Iran. So now I’m stuck,” she said.
Unlike Jerusalem, Tel Aviv has taken direct hits from the Iranian missiles and Tuhrim has had to dip in and out of her hotel’s shelter. But she said she felt safe and was happy to be near her daughter.
“For me, personally, at the moment, I feel better being here than in London, watching it all on the news, knowing my daughter is here. So, for now, we’re good.”
Israel’s Ministry of Tourism has set up a round-the-clock virtual help desk in English and Hebrew for stranded travelers.
But for anyone stuck here, all the museums are closed until further notice, entrance to the Old City of Jerusalem is barred to non-residents and many shops remain shuttered.
“The streets and shops are empty,” said Jerusalem resident Anwar Abu Lafi, who saw no quick end to the gloom.
“People are yearning for a break, to find something good in this existing darkness. We are deluding ourselves into thinking that the future will be better,” he said.
The post Tourists Stranded in Israel as Sirens Sound, Missiles Fly, Planes Grounded first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
4 Killed by Missile in Arab Town of Tamra, Including a Mother and Her Two Daughters
Illustrative: A Magen David Adom ambulance. Photo: David King via Wikimedia Commons.
i24 News – In the early hours of Sunday morning, the Arab town of Tamra in northern Israel was struck by an Iranian missile, tragically claiming the lives of four women from the same family, including a mother and her two daughters, aged 13 and 20.
The missile caused severe damage, nearly collapsing the three- to four-story building where they lived.
Emergency services responded quickly, evacuating 14 injured individuals and providing care for eight others suffering from shock at Rambam Hospital in Haifa.
Despite the devastation, the community and first responders showed remarkable resilience and solidarity, working tirelessly to assist those affected.
Eli Bin, director general of Magen David Adom, described the scene as one of severe destruction but praised the swift and professional response of rescue teams. Paramedic Adnan Abu Rumi, one of the first on site, emphasized the dedication of emergency personnel in managing the crisis.
Residents like Hamudi, who was injured but survived, shared heartfelt accounts of the sudden impact, underscoring the strength of families and neighbors coming together in difficult times.
The post 4 Killed by Missile in Arab Town of Tamra, Including a Mother and Her Two Daughters first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
RSS
Trump Sees Peace Between Iran and Israel Soon, Eyes Putin Role
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Photo: Reuters/Maxim Shemetov
Despite evidence that the conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Sunday that peace would come soon and cited the possibility that Russia’s Vladimir Putin could help.
In a social media post, Trump said there were many unspecified meetings about the issue happening and encouraged the two countries to make a deal. And in an interview with ABC News, he said he was open to Putin, whose forces invaded Ukraine and who has resisted Trump’s attempts to broker a ceasefire with Kyiv, serving as a mediator.
Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other overnight into Sunday, killing scores.
“Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social site. “We will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran! Many calls and meetings now taking place.”
Trump did not offer any details about the meetings or evidence of progress toward peace. His assertion contradicted comments by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said on Saturday that Israel’s campaign against Iran would intensify.
A White House spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for comment on how Trump and the White House were working to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East.
Trump told ABC News that Iran wanted to make a deal and indicated something like the Israel strikes would accelerate that. “Something like this had to happen because I think even from both sides, but something like this had to happen. They want to talk, and they will be talking,” Trump said, according to ABC reporter Rachel Scott. “May have forced a deal to go quicker, actually.”
The United States has engaged in talks with Iran about its nuclear program and Trump has told reporters previously that the talks were going well. But another round of discussions scheduled for Sunday in Oman was canceled after the Israeli and Iranian strikes.
Trump said he and Putin had discussed the situation in the Middle East on Saturday in a call that focused more on that conflict than the Russian war in Ukraine.
“He is ready. He called me about it,” Trump said about Putin serving as a mediator, according to Scott. “We had a long talk about it. We talked about this more than his situation. This is something I believe is going to get resolved.”
Trump, who portrays himself as a peacemaker and has drawn criticism from his political base for not being able to prevent the Israel-Iran conflict, cited other disputes that he took responsibility for solving, including between India and Pakistan, and lamented not receiving more praise for doing so.
“I do a lot, and never get credit for anything, but that’s OK, the PEOPLE understand. MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!” he wrote on Truth Social.
The post Trump Sees Peace Between Iran and Israel Soon, Eyes Putin Role first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login