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Does the EU Response to Houthi Terror Attacks Predict Further EU Appeasement Towards Iran?
Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released Nov. 20, 2023. Photo: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict contains a maritime dimension in the Red Sea. The Houthi offensive, ostensibly directed against Israel, is not only targeting Israel itself but also commercial and passenger ships under several flags, thereby creating a critical international strategic challenge. The EU has decided to respond by launching Operation ASPIDES.
Unlike the US- and UK-led Operations Prosperity Guardian and Poseidon Archer, ASPIDES is not attacking Houthi targets but intercepting their strikes. While this wholly defensive approach can play a useful role in protecting vessels and can contribute to deterrence, it concerns the Israelis, who fear that the EU’s limited response to the Houthi threat reflects a similar stance toward Iran.
On February 19, 2024, the EU announced the launch of Operation ASPIDES. Named after the Greek word for “shields,” the operation aims to safeguard maritime security and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. Its purpose is to protect vessels from multi-domain attacks at sea conducted by the Houthi rebels. ASPIDES is a defensive operation, meaning it will respond to attacks but refrain from striking Houthi targets.
ASPIDES has an initial duration of a year and a budget of €8 million. Four frigates — the German Hessen, the Greek Hydra, the French Alsace, and the Italian Caio Duilio — are participating, as well as an aerial asset. ASPIDES is run from a military base in Larissa, a city in central Greece. The operation commanders are Greek Commodore Vasileios Gryparis and Force Commander Italian Real Admiral Stefano Constantino. A recent press release revealed that 35 merchant ships were protected by ASPIDES in its first month of operation. This was accomplished by shooting down eight unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and repelling three other UAV attacks.
Before the launch of ASPIDES, four EU member states, namely France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain, had started — at least partly — to participate in Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea. This US/UK-led mission was announced in December 2023 and is supported by Bahrain, Canada, Norway, and the Seychelles. Two additional EU member states, Denmark and Greece, joined later and decided to provide warships.
Several European frigates have been assigned tasks in the area that are arguably associated with both ASPIDES and Prosperity Guardian. France, for instance, has sent the frigate Languedoc to the Red Sea, and Italy has sent naval ship Virginio Fasan. Reportedly, the Netherlands has dispatched its Tromp frigate. Only the Netherlands, however, is directly involved in both Prosperity Guardian and Poseidon Archer.
The Netherlands has participated in the organization and implementation of US/UK-led strikes against a number of Houthi targets in Yemen (Poseidon Archer). On one such occasion, on January 11, 2024, President Joe Biden acknowledged the Dutch contribution, along with that of Australia, Bahrain, and Canada. Strikes of this kind were regularly conducted throughout the first third of 2024. The names and number of participating nations differ, as this is a coalition of the willing. Denmark provided support for several strikes on 24 February.
In the words of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the US-UK action “is based on the right of self-defense.” The Netherlands, which has a long history as a sea-faring nation, places great importance on the right of free passage and is demonstrating that commitment with its participation in the Red Sea. But many believe that Rutte’s decision to take part is linked, at least to some degree, with his candidacy for the position of NATO Secretary General.
The stance of Denmark can likely be explained by its interest in protecting the shipping giant Maersk, which is based in that Scandinavian country. Maersk’s vessels have been hit by the Houthis.
Irrespective of Dutch and Danish motivations, not all EU member states agree that the US-UK strikes are necessary. Importantly, France, Italy, and Spain have distanced themselves from the American leadership as they fear a new round of escalation. France and Italy prefer that their frigates remain under national command in the Red Sea. For its part, Spain is linking its potential involvement in the Red Sea to a European or a NATO umbrella. Further to this, Madrid has been critical of Israel’s war in Gaza from the outset, and this likely contributed to its decision to preserve some autonomy.
Disagreements among various EU member states and the US on how to respond to Houthi attacks reveal their different understanding of Middle Eastern affairs. Some foresee a “worrisome transatlantic rift” while others doubt that a defensive European mission can bring positive results in the Red Sea. But what matters more is the extent to which different operations can complement each other and if some degree of coordination is feasible. The EU has experience in implementing a maritime strategy in the area. Operation Atalanta was set up in 2008 to fight piracy in the northwestern Indian Ocean, while Operation Agenor was launched in 2020 to ensure safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
An Atlantic Council essay argues that the rather mild European approach in the Red Sea, as reflected in ASPIDES, could help the EU better engage with some Arab states. According to the essay, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE might find it politically easier to support the EU operation than the American one. Although prognostications are risky for a naval operation that remains limited in scope, it does seem likely that the limited approach of ASPIDES will do little to repair strained EU-Israeli ties. Even if Jerusalem agrees with the complementary character of ASPIDES with respect to Prosperity Guardian, it will be wary. The Financial Times has reported that the EU, France, Germany and Italy are endeavoring to persuade other member states never to enter into a confrontation with Iran. Naturally, the Jewish State does not perceive the Iranian threat the way the Europeans do.
Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos is a BESA contributor, a lecturer at the European Institute of Nice (CIFE) and at the Democritus University of Thrace, and a Senior Fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. A version of this article was originally published by The BESA Center.
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Iran, US Task Experts to Design Framework for a Nuclear Deal, Tehran Says
Atomic symbol and USA and Iranian flags are seen in this illustration taken, September 8, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Iran and the United States agreed on Saturday to task experts to start drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran’s foreign minister said, after a second round of talks following President Donald Trump’s threat of military action.
At their second indirect meeting in a week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi negotiated for almost four hours in Rome with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, through an Omani official who shuttled messages between them.
Trump, who abandoned a 2015 nuclear pact between Tehran and world powers during his first term in 2018, has threatened to attack Iran unless it reaches a new deal swiftly that would prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, says it is willing to discuss limited curbs to its atomic work in return for lifting international sanctions.
Speaking on state TV after the talks, Araqchi described them as useful and conducted in a constructive atmosphere.
“We were able to make some progress on a number of principles and goals, and ultimately reached a better understanding,” he said.
“It was agreed that negotiations will continue and move into the next phase, in which expert-level meetings will begin on Wednesday in Oman. The experts will have the opportunity to start designing a framework for an agreement.”
The top negotiators would meet again in Oman next Saturday to “review the experts’ work and assess how closely it aligns with the principles of a potential agreement,” he added.
Echoing cautious comments last week from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he added: “We cannot say for certain that we are optimistic. We are acting very cautiously. There is no reason either to be overly pessimistic.”
There was no immediate comment from the US side following the talks. Trump told reporters on Friday: “I’m for stopping Iran, very simply, from having a nuclear weapon. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I want Iran to be great and prosperous and terrific.”
Washington’s ally Israel, which opposed the 2015 agreement with Iran that Trump abandoned in 2018, has not ruled out an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.
Since 2019, Iran has breached and far surpassed the 2015 deal’s limits on its uranium enrichment, producing stocks far above what the West says is necessary for a civilian energy program.
A senior Iranian official, who described Iran’s negotiating position on condition of anonymity on Friday, listed its red lines as never agreeing to dismantle its uranium enriching centrifuges, halt enrichment altogether or reduce its enriched uranium stockpile below levels agreed in the 2015 deal.
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Hamas Says Fate of US-Israeli Hostage Unknown After Guard Killed in Israel Strike
Varda Ben Baruch, the grandmother of Edan Alexander, 19, an Israeli army volunteer kidnapped by Hamas, attends a special Kabbalat Shabbat ceremony with families of other hostages, in Herzliya, Israel October 27, 2023 REUTERS/Kuba Stezycki
Hamas said on Saturday the fate of an Israeli dual national soldier believed to be the last US citizen held alive in Gaza was unknown, after the body of one of the guards who had been holding him was found killed by an Israeli strike.
A month after Israel abandoned the ceasefire with the resumption of intensive strikes across the breadth of Gaza, Israel was intensifying its attacks.
President Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said in March that freeing Edan Alexander, a 21-year-old New Jersey native who was serving in the Israeli army when he was captured during the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks that precipitated the war, was a “top priority.” His release was at the center of talks held between Hamas leaders and US negotiator Adam Boehler last month.
Hamas had said on Tuesday that it had lost contact with the militants holding Alexander after their location was hit in an Israeli attack. On Saturday it said the body of one of the guards had been recovered.
“The fate of the prisoner and the rest of the captors remains unknown,” said Hamas armed wing Al-Qassam Brigades’ spokesperson Abu Ubaida.
“We are trying to protect all the hostages and preserve their lives … but their lives are in danger because of the criminal bombings by the enemy’s army,” Abu Ubaida said.
The Israeli military did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Hamas released 38 hostages under the ceasefire that began on January 19. Fifty-nine are still believed to be held in Gaza, fewer than half of them still alive.
Israel put Gaza under a total blockade in March and restarted its assault on March 18 after talks failed to extend the ceasefire. Hamas says it will free remaining hostages only under an agreement that permanently ends the war; Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause.
On Friday, the Israeli military said it hit about 40 targets across the enclave over the past day. The military on Saturday announced that a 35-year-old soldier had died in combat in Gaza.
NETANYAHU STATEMENT
Late on Thursday Khalil Al-Hayya, Hamas’ Gaza chief, said the movement was willing to swap all remaining 59 hostages for Palestinians jailed in Israel in return for an end to the war and reconstruction of Gaza.
He dismissed an Israeli offer, which includes a demand that Hamas lay down its arms, as imposing “impossible conditions.”
Israel has not responded formally to Al-Hayya’s comments, but ministers have said repeatedly that Hamas must be disarmed completely and can play no role in the future governance of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to give a statement later on Saturday.
Hamas on Saturday also released an undated and edited video of Israeli hostage Elkana Bohbot. Hamas has released several videos over the course of the war of hostages begging to be released. Israeli officials have dismissed past videos as propaganda.
After the video was released, Bohbot’s family said in a statement that they were “deeply shocked and devastated,” and expressed concern for his mental and physical condition.
“How much longer will he be expected to wait and ‘stay strong’?” the family asked, urging for all of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza to be brought home.
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Oman’s Sultan to Meet Putin in Moscow After Iran-US Talks
FILE PHOTO: Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said gives a speech after being sworn in before the royal family council in Muscat, Oman January 11, 2020. Photo: REUTERS/Sultan Al Hasani/File Photo
Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said is set to visit Moscow on Monday, days after the start of a round of Muscat-mediated nuclear talks between the US and Iran.
The sultan will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, the Kremlin said.
Iran and the US started a new round of nuclear talks in Rome on Saturday to resolve their decades-long standoff over Tehran’s atomic aims, under the shadow of President Donald Trump’s threat to unleash military action if diplomacy fails.
Ahead of Saturday’s talks, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Moscow. Following the meeting, Lavrov said Russia was “ready to assist, mediate and play any role that will be beneficial to Iran and the USA.”
Moscow has played a role in Iran’s nuclear negotiations in the past as a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member and signatory to an earlier deal that Trump abandoned during his first term in 2018.
The sultan’s meetings in Moscow visit will focus on cooperation on regional and global issues, the Omani state news agency and the Kremlin said, without providing further detail.
The two leaders are also expected to discuss trade and economic ties, the Kremlin added.
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