Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Mariupol, Russian-controlled Ukraine, in this still image taken from handout video released on March 19, 2023. Photo: Kremlin.ru/Handout via REUTERS

For Part One of this article, click here.

Scenario 3. The incorporation of elements of Islamic radicalism from criminal subcultures into the country’s political system

The most dangerous scenario for Russia and other countries would be Scenario 3 that foresees the incorporation of elements of Islamic radicalism from criminal subcultures into the country’s political system. Among the trends suggesting the possibility of such a scenario are the following. Since the 1990s, there has been an evident link between Russia’s political and business elite and criminal circles. Currently, there is a notable trend toward the division of key assets among criminal-political groups, particularly those of North Caucasian origin.

The trend toward state conservatism as part of Russia’s modern ideology is leading to de-secularization and strengthening of the connection between Islamic ideology and regional political systems in Russia’s autonomous republics of the North Caucasus. The power structure established in Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov, based on political Islam (of a conservative-Sufi nature), is the first example of a stable Islamist regime in the post-Soviet space (experiments with the introduction of Sharia laws in independent Chechnya between the First and Second Chechen Wars lasted a significantly shorter time).

Already, there is a noticeable link between the spread of radical Islam in prisons and among criminal groups, driven by the growing popularity of radical Islam among young people from certain Russian regions and among the most vulnerable migrant groups. Some experts say that there is also growing tendency towards introduction of radical Islamism as the ideology of different criminal groups in Russia and Central Asia. Added to this is the rise in the use of political Islam as a mechanism for integration among power groups at the regional regime level, alongside a trend toward overall instability in Russia.

As a result of all these trends, a situation may quickly emerge, when regional political systems in the North Caucasus, amid a weakening federal center, will begin to rely on support of criminal-Islamist groups. This is logical since the leaders of these groups already use criminal gangs (sometimes with elements of radical Islamic ideology) in the conflicts over property, as the Wildberries case demonstrates.

To understand the reality of such a scenario, one only needs to recall that elements of criminal-Islamist groups were integrated into the official structures of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (specifically, its Armed Forces) between the two Chechen wars. Elements of the practices that developed at that time (including the combination of formal work in security structures with informal criminal activity, particularly informal protection activities) have persisted in a modified form in today’s Chechen Republic. In modern Dagestan and several other national autonomous republics of the North Caucasus, similar processes can be observed along two lines, or trends.

The first trend is the connection between regional elites and organized crime. In this context, two officially documented cases can be mentioned. From 2016 to 2019, Rauf Arashukov was a member of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament. He was delegated there by the executive authority of Karachay-Cherkessia, a national republic in the North Caucasus. He had also previously served as the head of a district and as the first deputy head of the republic’s government. In 2022, he was convicted of organizing a criminal community and for murder. Another, no less high-profile case is the story of the former mayor of Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, Said Amirov, who was convicted in 2014 on similar charges.  It is evident that this is only the tip of the iceberg, revealing the connections between regional political systems in the North Caucasus and criminal groups. Based on this, it can be assumed that, in some cases, gangs act as informal (and sometimes even formalized when integrated into official law enforcement agencies) forces relied upon by certain regional elites.

The second trend indicating the real possibility of Scenario 3 is the increasing official Islamic religiosity of regional elites, including within the framework of the conservative ideology that currently dominates in Russia.

Accordingly, it is entirely plausible to hypothetically assume a further convergence of these two developmental trends described above, meaning that regional elites could merge with criminal-Islamist groups.

An example of the merging of the trends described above is the terrorist attack in Dagestan on June 23, 2024. During the attack, a synagogue, two Orthodox churches, and a traffic police checkpoint in Makhachkala and Derbent were targeted. Twenty-one people lost their lives—16 police officers and five civilians, including a 66-year-old Orthodox priest in Derbent—and more than 20 others were injured. It was discovered that three relatives of Magomed Omarov, the head of the Sergokala district in Dagestan, were involved in the attack, including his own son.

Consequently, the influence of radical Islam, with its anti-Western and anti-Semitic tendencies, could expand across all of Russia and may start influence the policy of the federal government. This situation could pose significant threats to Europe and Israel.

The facts described above highlight the need to deepen the study of the links between Jihadism and criminal activity, as well as the study of prison Islam (which, of course, is not solely limited to Islamic radicalism but can also represent prisoners’ legitimate search for meaning, justice and social integration). Two obstacles stand in the way of this endeavor.

One obstacle lies in the politicization of the issue. As a result, experts leaning toward a right-wing discourse tend to focus primarily on counterterrorism and criminal behavior, while academics inclined toward a left-wing discourse may emphasize prisoner rights and religious freedom violations in post-Soviet countries. An accurate assessment of the situation requires a comprehensive approach that integrates both aspects of the issue mentioned above. Today, there are many interesting theoretical and comparative scholarly studies of convergence between criminal and terrorist activities, this approach can be applied also to the case of prison Islam and convergence between criminal and religious extremist activity in Russia and Central Asia.

The second obstacle is the difficulty of accessing both underground criminal-Islamist groups at large (who are not inclined to disseminate information about themselves) and prisoners (since authorities in many post-Soviet countries are not interested in exposing prison conditions due to serious human rights violations within these institutions).

The author is an Affiliated Research Fellow at the PSCR Program, the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Bar-Ilan University, PhD (Israel), where a version of this article was first published.

The post How the Radical Islamist Influence in Russian Prisons Can Pose a Threat to Israel and the West (PART TWO) first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

A view shows Rimon Market kosher store, which was managed by Zvi Kogan, an Israeli rabbi who was found murdered, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Nov. 24, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Alexander Cornwell

Three suspects arrested in the United Arab Emirates and accused of murdering an Israeli rabbi in the UAE are citizens of Uzbekistan, the Emirati Ministry of Interior said on Monday.

The ministry released a statement identifying the three men as Olimpi Toirovich, 28, Makhmudjon Abdurakhim, also 28, and Azizbek Kamlovich, 33, releasing images showing each of them blindfolded and handcuffed in custody.

#BreakingNews :

Ministry of Interior: Security authorities identify the perpetrators of the murder of the Moldovan citizen and initiate legal proceedings.

The Ministry of Interior announced that the competent security authorities have begun initial investigations with the three… pic.twitter.com/f5eNwVvdCa

— وزارة الداخلية (@moiuae) November 25, 2024

The investigation by Emirati authorities is continuing, the statement said, without saying whether the men had been charged.

The embassy of Uzbekistan in Abu Dhabi did not immediately respond to an emailed Reuters request for comment.

The body of the rabbi, Zvi Kogan, 28, was discovered on Sunday. He had been reported missing on Thursday and an Israeli official has said it is believed Kogan was last seen in Dubai.

Emirati authorities have not said if they have established a motive. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said it was an “antisemitic terrorist act,” and the Israeli official had said it is believed Kogan was targeted because he was Jewish.

“The murder of Zvi Kogan, of blessed memory, is an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism. The State of Israel will use all means and will deal with the criminals responsible for his death,”read a joint statement on Sunday from the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and Foreign Ministry.

Former Israeli Druze politician Ayoob Kara, speaking to Reuters in Dubai on Sunday, accused Iran of being involved. Iran’s embassy in Abu Dhabi has rejected the accusation.

Kogan’s death has shaken the UAE‘s Jewish community, which Jewish groups estimate to number in the several thousand.

Kogan was a resident of the UAE and also a Moldovan national, according to local authorities. He lived in the UAE for several years, working with the New York-based Chabad movement, involved in Jewish community outreach.

Rabbi Yehuda Krinsky, chairman of Chabad, said on Sunday that “the worldwide Chabad community and the international Jewish community at large are shocked, grieving, and outraged.”

“Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a young Chabad emissary, was kidnapped and murdered in cold blood last week while serving the Jewish community in the UAE,” Krinsky said. “Chabad-Lubavitch emissaries serve in countries around the globe in a spirit of generosity and kindness. Wherever they are stationed to grow and sustain Jewish life, they benefit the larger community as well with their love and light for all humanity.”

Israeli agencies are taking part in the investigation, the Israeli official told Reuters on Sunday. The Moldovan foreign ministry has said that it is contact with UAE authorities.

UAE Ambassador to Washington Yousef Al Otaiba has said that Kogan’s murder was a crime against the Gulf Arab country, which sits on the Arabian Peninsula and across the Gulf from Iran.

The Israeli and Jewish community in the UAE has grown more visible since 2020, when the Gulf Arab country established official ties with Israel under a US-brokered agreement known as the Abraham Accords.

The UAE has maintained ties with Israel amid the 13-month-old Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

In the US, the White House National Security Council condemned Kogan’s murder.

“Our prayers are with his family, the Chabad-Lubavitch community, the broader Jewish community and all who are mourning his loss,” Sean Savett, a spokesman for the council, said on Sunday. “This was a horrific crime against all those who stand for peace, tolerance, and coexistence. It was an assault as well on UAE and its rejection of violent extremism across the board.”

Savett added that the US “is working in close coordination with Israeli and UAE authorities, and we have offered all appropriate forms of support.”

The post UAE Says Suspects in Murder of Chabad Rabbi Are From Uzbekistan first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks during a meeting with Iran’s parliament members in Tehran, Iran, July 21, 2024. Photo: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo

The so-called “supreme leader” of Iran, which backs the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists fighting Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, said on Monday that death sentences should be issued for Israeli leaders, not arrest warrants.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was commenting on a decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue arrest warrants on Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense chief Yoav Gallant, and a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri.

“They issued an arrest warrant, that’s not enough … Death sentence must be issued for these criminal leaders“, Khamenei said, referring to the Israeli leaders.

Khamenei made the comment on Monday while speaking before a gathering in Tehran of Basij forces, the paramilitary arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an Iranian military force and internationally designated terrorist organization.

“Iran’s Basij will definitely succeed in destroying the Zionist regime one day,” he added, according to Iranian media. What the Zionist regime did in Gaza and Lebanon is not victory; it is a war crime. They are fools and should not believe that by bombing houses, hospitals, and congregations they are achieving victory. Nobody considers that victory.”

In their decision, the ICC judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe Netanyahu and Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution, and starvation as a weapon of war as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.”

The decision was met with outrage in Israel, which called it shameful and absurd. Israel has rejected the jurisdiction of the Hague-based court and denies war crimes in Gaza.

The warrant for Masri lists charges of mass killings during the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, and also charges of rape and the taking of hostages.

Israel has said it killed Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, in an airstrike in July but Hamas has neither confirmed nor denied this.

The post Iran’s Khamenei Calls for Death Sentence for Israeli Leaders first appeared on Algemeiner.com.