JNS.org – The Enlightenment philosopher Immanuel Kant observed that “out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made.” Kant’s point was that human actions and the history they create are too complicated and too replete with contradictions to allow for utopian thinking or cast-iron predictions. The latest illustration of that dictum comes in the form of Friedrich Merz, the victor in last week’s German election and the new chancellor in waiting.

Eighty years after the defeat of Adolf Hitler and Germany’s Nazi Party, can it really be said that the leader of a country that conquered Europe, subjugated its nations and murdered its Jews now offers the best hope for the future of the continent, and thereby the rest of the world? Based on Merz’s past record and the promises he made during the election campaign, the answer has to be a tentative “yes.”

Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won 208 seats—well short of the 316-seat majority needed to form a government outright but within realistic sight of a coalition government. For now, Merz is focused on parliamentary horse-trading, opening coalition negotiations with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), whose share of the vote tumbled to just 16.4%—its worst performance for well over 100 years. Extremist parties also performed strongly, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leaping into second place above the SPD, and the Left Party, rooted in the former Communist regime in East Germany, coming fourth with nearly 9% of the vote.

If he can’t pull off forming a government with the SPD, Merz will be under pressure to open talks with the AfD, despite his pledge to retain the “Brandmauer” (“firewall”) that has kept the far right out of government in postwar Germany. That prospect may result in the SPD becoming more malleable in negotiations than they otherwise might be.

Once he begins the business of governing, Merz may well find that foreign policy occupies much of his attention, as well as sets the tone for how future generations will remember him. As this century reaches its quarter mark, Merz is assuming the chancellor’s office during a time of profound change for Europe. All indications are that the transatlantic relationship that formed the basis of the world order after 1945 is rapidly unraveling. After being forcibly pulled into World War II—only to emerge as Europe’s main security guarantor during the Cold War—the United States under President Donald Trump is pivoting towards Asia and the Pacific.

As shocked as European leaders say they are by Trump’s move, it’s been a long time in coming. During the twilight of his first term, former President Barack Obama told the Australian parliament that the “United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.” Events over the last decade and a half—trade wars with China, the future of Taiwan, the threat presented by North Korea—underline that a good deal of merit underlies such a pivot. If the United States has to choose a region to prioritize, especially now, with ever-depleting resources and a public that is tired of foreign wars, it won’t be Europe.

Here is where Merz can make a real difference. Despite the estimate of the German commentator Jörg Lau that there is “hardly a more pro-American politician in Germany” than Merz, the incoming chancellor offered a matter-of-fact response to the signals from Trump that Europe’s privileged relationship with America is coming to an end. “It is clear that [the Trump administration] does not care much about the fate of Europe,” Merz declared during a televised debate. As much as that sounds like scolding, it might be better understood as the voice of a politician sniffing out a historic opportunity.

Merz has declared that achieving “independence from the US” in defense matters is his explicit aim. He is pushing for Germany’s defense budget to be boosted by more than $200 billion—no doubt an example Trump would urge other European leaders to follow. Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, who also sits on the center-right, are leading a push for European nations to take charge of their own defense, warmly citing Poland as a case of a government that has made this a priority, bolstering its defense spending in 2025 to nearly $50 billion.

As daunting as this task will be, it will yield more concrete results than an endless, fruitless debate with a White House that has so far taken a much more benign view of Russia than that found in European capitals. Trump may deem that Moscow is not a threat to Washington—at least not in territorial terms—but it remains the greatest single threat facing Europe. There is much to prevent Russian dictator Vladimir Putin from pushing his forces beyond Ukraine, not least his country’s faltering economy and the eye-watering human cost of his illegal, brutal invasion of his southern neighbor, but any European leader who believes that he will stop there is a fool. Indeed, if Trump does secure a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv, Putin could well see that as a golden chance to regroup and rearm his forces. The challenge for Merz is to be ready for that eventuality and to be prepared to respond to any further Russian aggression with the use of force, with or without the United States.

A militarily strong Europe with Germany at its center (words that would have been unthinkable for most of the postwar era!) would be good news for Ukraine and other states in Russia’s sights. It would also be good news for Israel.

One of Merz’s first acts after winning the election was to announce that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was welcome to visit Germany without fearing that the arrest warrant issued for him by the International Criminal Court in The Hague would be executed on German soil, something the previous government of SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz wavered on.

Merz has also stated that Germany’s relationship with the Jewish state created from the ashes of the Nazi Holocaust is “unique—no ifs or buts.” Following the Hamas pogrom in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Merz said that Palestinian asylum seekers would not be welcome in Germany because his country “already has too many antisemites.” He will also take a tougher stance on Iran, having already criticized current German policy as “characterized by the idea of a cooperative government in Tehran” and declaring “this illusion has to be abandoned.”

Merz could, therefore, shape himself into a European leader without precedent: a Reaganite conservative and admirer of American democracy who nonetheless knows that the writing is on the wall as regards U.S. engagement with Europe. If that is the path he follows, we would be wise to hope that he succeeds.

The post How Germany’s New Leader Can Make History first appeared on Algemeiner.com.