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Iran Is Shockingly Close to Nuclear Breakout Potential; The World Must Act
Military personnel stand guard at a nuclear facility in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024. Photo: West Asia News Agency via REUTERS
The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), will soon issue new reporting on Iran’s nuclear program from a summer of inspections at Tehran’s nuclear sites.
The new data — and their implications — may cause a shock.
In June, Tehran installed numerous new uranium-enrichment centrifuges at its Natanz enrichment plant and its underground Fordow site, more than tripling the latter’s capacity to produce uranium enriched to 60 percent purity.
Amassing 60 percent enriched material puts Iran days from enriching that uranium to 90 percent, the level needed for atomic weapons. As a result, the Islamic Republic’s so-called “breakout time” — specifically, the amount of time the regime needs to produce weapons-grade uranium for multiple nuclear devices — may have dropped significantly.
The IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors will meet next during the week of September 9 in Vienna, where Washington and its European allies will consider Tehran’s nuclear advances, and assess Iran’s non-compliance with previous Board demands that the regime cooperate on a multi-year IAEA investigation into Tehran’s nuclear weapons-work.
To deter and penalize further Iranian advances, the West should pass an IAEA censure resolution against Tehran, and trigger the snapback of UN sanctions on the regime.
Iran’s breakout time began dropping precipitously after the election of US President Joe Biden in 2020, as Tehran exploited his desire to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and remove sanctions. Notably, this expansion came after Iran’s relative restraint when President Donald Trump exited the nuclear accord in 2018 and implemented massive US sanctions that severely crippled the Iranian economy.
As of November 2020, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security, Iran needed 3.5 months to make weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear device, and around 5.5 months to produce enough material for two.
Biden later said he wouldn’t try to revive the joint nuclear deal, but stood by as Iranian breakout time dropped to terrifying levels.
IAEA data for May 2024 indicated the Islamic Republic could make enough fuel for one nuclear weapon in under 7 days, and enough for 13 weapons in four months. The regime would require an unknown number of additional months to build atomic devices and integrate the weapons-grade fuel, and the United States and Israel have reportedly observed Iranian scientists working on such efforts.
At Fordow last June, Iran installed advanced-generation machines known as the IR-6, which churn out uranium at a fast clip. There, Iran was already enriching uranium to 60 percent purity in two clusters of centrifuges — known as cascades — each containing 174 IR-6 machines, and informed the IAEA it was adding eight more cascades.
Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright crunched the numbers at Fordow, and found — using that facility alone — that Tehran could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for nine nuclear weapons in two months, adding to Iran’s overall breakout capability and rendering the plant an agile pathway for the Islamic Republic to quickly produce fuel for nuclear weapons.
Unless Iran has slowed centrifuge installation, Tehran could have nearly 1,400 IR-6 machines spinning at the highly fortified Fordow site, along with hundreds more new advanced machines at Natanz. A caveat: The United States may have offered the regime informal but lucrative sanctions relief to slow but not stop installation, meaning Iran could ramp back up any time.
These developments pair poorly with new US and Israeli intelligence that Iranian scientists at civilian research institutes were recently studying computer modeling and metallurgy related to nuclear weapons. As a result, the US intelligence community was unable to assert in a recent report to Congress that Iran is not working on nuclear weapons activities, prompting alarm from members of Congress who have seen the report’s classified version and received briefings.
Moreover, it is unclear whether the US and Israeli intelligence communities have adequate insight into Iran’s more covert nuclear weapons-work at military sites.
With the disarray of US election season and multiple world crises, Tehran’s temptation to sprint to nuclear weapons will only grow. Washington and its European allies must immediately counter and deter further Iranian advances.
As a follow-on to the IAEA board’s Iran censure last June — and in light of Tehran’s failure to comply with the board’s demands — the West must vote for a new censure at the IAEA’s upcoming meeting. Yet since Iran used the June board resolution as a pretext to expand its uranium-enrichment capacity immediately after, the West must do better at deterring further advances.
In the new IAEA resolution, Washington and its allies must refer Tehran’s proliferation case to the UN Security Council, where the United States, the United Kingdom, or France may — without Russia and China’s veto — reimpose within 30 days all Iranian sanctions that currently remain lifted by the defunct nuclear accord. Importantly, those sanctions prohibit Tehran’s uranium-enrichment activity and international (read: Russian and Chinese) missile and military trade with the regime. The West must also signal more sanctions pain is to come for additional Iranian advances.
Iran is rapidly approaching the capability to produce a medium-sized nuclear arsenal, and no nation but Israel is acting to stop it. Unless the Western powers plan to counter an expansionist, messianic Islamic Republic with nuclear weapons — one that is already acting on plans to destroy Israel by 2040 — they would do well to halt the regime’s advances while there is still time.
Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
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Swiss Museum Compensates Jewish Heirs of Nazi Looted Painting for Pissarro Artwork
A partial view of Camille Pissarro’s “La Maison Rondest, l’Hermitage, Pontoise” (1875). Photo: Provided by the Kunstmuseum Basel
A museum in Basel, Switzerland, said on Thursday it will compensate the heirs of the late German-Jewish textile entrepreneur Richard Semmel for a Camille Pissarro painting he was forced to sell due to Nazi persecution.
Kunstmuseum Basel said that, together with Semmel’s heirs, they decided upon the compensation payment as a “just and fair solution” regarding Pissarro’s “La Maison Rondest, l’Hermitage, Pontoise” (1875). The painting will remain a part of the museum’s permanent collection in its main building and will be displayed alongside a sign that explains the origins and history of the artwork. The exact amount of the compensation payment was not revealed.
“The Kunstmuseum is delighted to be able to retain the work in its collection and the heirs are satisfied with the solution,” the museum stated in a press release.
The Pissarro artwork was donated to the museum in early 2021. It was part of the collection of the late Dr. Klaus von Berlepsch and was set to appear as a loan in an exhibition at the museum about the famed artist. However, even before the exhibition opened, von Berlepsch decided to donate the work to the Kunstmuseum Basel. The museum and von Berlepsch were both unaware of the painting’s provenance at the time of the donation. The Swiss institution researched the painting’s provenance only after it joined the museum’s collection and “prior ownership by the Jewish entrepreneur Richard Semmel was quickly revealed,” the museum said.
Semmel owned a Berlin-based linens manufacturing company called Arthur Samulon, which he led as sole shareholder starting in 1919. In June 1933, Semmel he and his wife emigrated to the Netherlands, which was not yet under Nazi occupation. The couple had no children. Semmel himself said that he left Germany not only due to “racial” persecution by the Nazis, but also because he was accused of having ties to the Social Democratic party.
He managed to transport a large portion of his art collection of more than 100 works to the Netherlands and the Pissarro painting was sold at auction in Amsterdam in June 1933. In October of that same year, it was displayed at a gallery in Basel, where it was quickly sold to the collector Walther Hanhart. Around 1974, Hanhart passed the painting on to his daughter, who was married to von Berlepsch.
Proceeds from the sale of his art were used by Semmel to mitigate financial difficulties his linens company faced in Berlin and was also spent on salaries, debt repayments, and taxes. The Kunstmuseum Basel explained that the National Socialist Factory Cell Organization, which was a worker’s union controlled by the Nazi Party, ordered that despite a decrease in orders from Semmel’s company, no employees could be dismissed, so Semmel was forced to continue paying them and keeping the business afloat from abroad.
“From the point of view of Semmel’s heirs, the sales [of his art] were a direct consequence of Richard Semmel’s persecution, regardless of where they took place, and thus represent a loss of assets due to Nazi persecution,” according to the Kunstmuseum Basel. “Richard Semmel could not remain in Germany or could do so only at great risk to his life. He used the proceeds from the sale of his paintings to try to keep the linens business in Berlin operational. The art sale proceeds therefore flowed into the German Reich.”
“Semmel thus fought for economic control of his companies in Germany while on the run and outside the Nazis’ immediate sphere of influence, albeit in vain and most likely with no chance of success to begin with. For this reason, the Kunstmuseum and the Kunstkommission [Art Commission] agree that the heirs’ claim to the work is justified.”
In June 1939, Semmel and his wife fled again but this time to New York via Chile. They lived in the US in poverty and with poor health. After his wife’s death in 1945, Semmel was taken care of by an acquaintance from Berlin, Grete Gross née Eisenstaedt (1887-1958). As thanks, he appointed her as his sole heir. When she died in 1958, her daughter Ilse Kauffmann became Semmel’s heir. Kauffmann is now deceased and her two daughters will receive the compensation payment from the Kunstmuseum Basel.
The Swiss institution said several museums have also determined that Semmel was forced to sell his art collection due to Nazi persecution. Some have restituted arworks to Semmel’s heirs — such as The National Gallery of Victoria, in Melbourne, Australia — and others have paid his heirs compensation for the artwork, including a Dutch museum in 2021. Kunstmuseum said that privately, there have been “numerous” out-of-court settlements with Semmel’s heirs about artwork that he formerly owned.
In 2022, a landscape painting by Claude Monet was auctioned by Christie’s for $25.5 million and portions of the sale were divided between Semmel’s heirs and a French family who are the painting’s current owners.
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Reclaiming Jewish Pride on Campus: Lessons from an Israeli Reserve Captain
An Israeli soldier stands during a two-minute siren marking the annual Israeli Holocaust Remembrance Day, at an installation at the site of the Nova festival where party goers were killed and kidnapped during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas terrorists from Gaza, in Reim, southern Israel, May 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Ammar Awad
I recently traveled across the United States with Olami, a global organization committed to building Jewish identity and ensuring Jewish continuity. My goal was to connect with Jewish students on campus, and share my experiences as a reserve captain in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) on and after October 7th.
This was my first trip to the US, and I came simply expecting to tell my story: On that black Saturday, I mobilized two of my sergeants and headed straight to the Nova music festival, where one of my soldiers was trapped. We began the rescue mission for him, but ultimately saved over 100 civilians. During the operation, I found my own father’s body, yet I pressed on, driven by our duty to protect others. Afterward, I continued my service in Gaza, spending months defending my country and rooting out the terrorists who had taken so much from us.
When I spoke with American students on campuses and in communities across the East Coast, I realized that something vital was missing: their confidence. Over the past year, they had faced such vicious attacks for being Jewish that they were left with a deep struggle, rooted in uncertainty, fear, and hesitancy regarding their Jewish identity.
In Israel, strength and pride in our identity are ingrained. It’s part of who we are — passed down through generations and fortified by a shared history. In the US, I encountered a very different reality.
At each event hosted by Olami, a large group of students gathered, and many expressed a deep insecurity about standing up for themselves or even speaking openly about being Jewish. They seemed paralyzed in the face of campus hostility, unsure of how to respond or confront the negativity they encountered. For the first time in my life, I saw young Jews unsure of their own strength, something I’d never encountered among my peers in Israel, where Jewish pride is second nature.
I realized my focus for the speaking tour had to shift. This trip was no longer just about sharing my story, it was about helping these students find confidence as Jews.
I wanted to address the fear and hesitation they felt in expressing their Jewish identity, and impart some of the pride that, for us in Israel, is part of our national DNA. We are raised to face daunting challenges head-on because there’s simply no alternative. We are taught from a young age that if we stand up, others back down. This strength isn’t just a mindset; it’s essential to who we are as Israelis and as Jews.
I felt compelled to share this message with the students I met. I wanted them to understand that even though American campuses may feel hostile, they don’t need to compromise their pride or dilute their identity to fit in or avoid conflict. When we stand proudly as Jews, our presence itself — as a united community — is a powerful shield against hate and prejudice. This sense of unity is something deeply ingrained in Israeli society, where we rely on one another not just for support but for survival. It’s a powerful source of resilience that I believe can be shared with Jewish communities everywhere.
To my fellow young Jews in America, I say this: you must reclaim your confidence. You have the right to be unapologetically Jewish, to speak out and stand firm against hate. It’s not easy, but when we remember that we are not alone — that Jews around the world are standing with us — our strength becomes undeniable. The challenges we face may be different, but the need for unity and Jewish pride is the same.
I left those US campuses with a renewed understanding of the work we must do together. We need to build bridges within and between Jewish communities, creating spaces like Olami does, where students can strengthen their identity and learn to develop resilience in the face of hostility. This effort should involve meaningful dialogue between Israeli and Diaspora Jews, along with regular cultural gatherings, Shabbat meals, and holiday celebrations. These experiences reinforce our shared history, deepen our bonds, and create a supportive foundation for students to confidently embrace their Jewish identity.
Yhoni Skariszewski is a VP of Sales and a reserve deputy commander in the Givati unit of the Israeli Defense Forces. He is a graduate of Olami-Nefesh Yehudi Jerusalem University chapter.
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‘Globalize the Intifada’ Becomes Reality as Amsterdam Erupts in Fresh Wave of Antisemitic Riots
Pro-Palestinian protesters face Dutch police while taking part in a non-authorized protest in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Nov. 10, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Anthony Deutsch
“Globalize the Intifada.”
It’s the chant that has become a staple at anti-Israel protests sweeping across the West after the Hamas-led October 7 attacks ,and throughout Israel’s subsequent war against the terrorist group in Gaza. The phrase is a call for Israel’s destruction, and a thinly veiled invitation to target Jews worldwide.
Unfortunately,“Globalize the Intifada” is fast becoming a reality. On Monday night in Amsterdam, violence erupted again. Rioters, reportedly “youth claiming solidarity with Palestinians,” attacked police with fireworks and projectiles, destroyed property, and set a tram ablaze.
This time, there were no Israeli sports fans in sight and no alleged provocation. Just a city under siege, with attackers chanting “Cancer Jews” into the night.
What’s more, the violence appears to be escalating, with Belgian police announcing on Monday the arrest of five people in Antwerp as calls spread on social media for a “Jew hunt” in the city, which was already grappling with a surge in antisemitic assaults.
The scenes in Amsterdam last week hinted at what was to come: Israeli soccer fans were ambushed in what we now know was a coordinated attack planned in advance and unleashed after the Maccabi Tel Aviv versus Ajax match.
And yet, many media outlets were predictably reluctant to call it what it was: antisemitic violence.
The following video has been circulating on social media showcasing riots breaking out in Amsterdam, again.
Rioters are damaging property and shouting “Kankerjoden,” which means “Cancer Jews.” pic.twitter.com/dWqqE9GVSz
— Jewish News Syndicate (@JNS_org) November 12, 2024
Meanwhile, media pundits like Mehdi Hasan and Owen Jones rushed to rationalize the attacks, implying Israelis “brought it on themselves” by singing offensive songs before the game — as if that justified being hunted down by a baying mob (and ignoring that he attack was planned.)
This, despite the Mayor of Amsterdam condemning the attacks as perpetrated by “antisemitic hit-and-run squads,” and Dutch police confirming evidence of premeditation.
In other words, Israeli fans were targeted not for their chants, but simply for being Israeli.
When antisemitic mobs in Amsterdam launched a coordinated assault on Jewish fans, some media pundits glossed over the premeditated nature of the attack.
This wasn’t a random clash—it was a planned assault, but that context was lost in the media’s dangerous spin. pic.twitter.com/KRiiuOLjU8
— HonestReporting (@HonestReporting) November 11, 2024
So, how are the media covering Monday’s fresh wave of violence? Mostly, they’re not.
The Associated Press and BBC are among the few major outlets to report on it in any capacity, and even they avoid linking it to the recent antisemitic surge — ignoring footage of rioters screaming “Cancer Jews.”
The conclusion? “No Jews, no news.”
If there’s no angle to subtly blame Jewish victims, the mainstream media doesn’t seem interested.
Footage from the scene caught at least one of the participants shouting, “Cancer Jews.”
But @AP leaves that bit out to avoid linking this arson attack on a tram to the same people who attacked Israelis and Jews in Amsterdam only a few days ago. pic.twitter.com/KjERhNNYM7
— HonestReporting (@HonestReporting) November 12, 2024
The attacks in Amsterdam last Thursday night, reminiscent of Nazi-era pogroms, are the direct result of the “Globalize the Intifada” movement that anti-Israel protesters have been championing for over a year. This slogan isn’t just a catchy chant; it’s a blatant call for violence against Jews, mirroring the atrocities of the First and Second Palestinian Intifadas.
Just days before Israelis were hunted down in the streets of Amsterdam, reports emerged from the Netherlands revealing that some Dutch police officers were refusing to guard Jewish sites, citing “moral dilemmas.” Such inaction and moral equivocation effectively serve as a green light for the violence we’ve witnessed, both last week and this week.
Welcome to the “globalized intifada” — it didn’t begin in Amsterdam, and it certainly won’t end there.
The author is a contributor to HonestReporting, a Jerusalem-based media watchdog with a focus on antisemitism and anti-Israel bias — where a version of this article first appeared.
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