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Iran Won’t Retaliate for Israeli Strikes, Open Season on Nuclear Sites Unlikely, Analyst Says
Unidentified men carrying a model of Iran’s first-ever hypersonic missile, Fattah, past a mosque during a gathering to celebrate a failed Iranian attack on Israel, in Tehran, Iran, on April 15, 2024. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Reuters Connect
Iran is not expected to retaliate for Israel’s precision airstrikes on its military and air defense sites, an Israeli weapons systems and intelligence expert told The Algemeiner on Sunday, adding that the Islamist regime’s ballistic missile program will need at least a year to recover from the strikes.
Dr. Eyal Pinko, who served in the Israeli navy and intelligence for more than three decades, said that while Saturday’s operation demonstrated Israel’s “amazing intelligence capabilities,” it was unlikely to appease the Israeli public, which was hoping for a more expansive retaliation targeting Iran’s nuclear program.
Israel’s strike on Saturday involved over 100 aircraft targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses, leaving Tehran vulnerable and disabling its key defensive capabilities. However, with US President Joe Biden pressing for restraint to avoid a broader regional conflict, Israeli officials have refrained from escalating the strike to include nuclear facilities and oil refineries.
The attack unfolded in a coordinated, three-wave strike. First, Israeli forces targeted radar systems in Syria and Iraq to clear the path for the main assault, followed by strikes on key Iranian air defense systems, including several S-300 and S-400 batteries around Tehran and Isfahan, effectively dismantling much of Iran’s aerial defense network. The third wave focused on Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities, aiming to disrupt missile manufacturing rather than existing stockpiles. According to Israeli defense sources, the operation significantly hindered Iran’s missile capabilities and production capacity, reducing its ability to launch large-scale attacks in the near future.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the “precise and powerful” air attack was in response to Iran firing more than 180 missiles at Israel earlier in the month, as well as ongoing attacks from its terror proxies in the region.
“Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of ballistic missiles and this attack failed. We kept our promise. The air force attacked Iran and hit Iran’s defense capabilities and missile production,” Netanyahu said, adding that the attack “achieved all its objectives.”
According to Pinko, all evidence points to Iran being a threshold nuclear state, but nonetheless Israel was unlikely to target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, especially so close to the US elections on Nov. 5.
“In the short term I don’t believe that Israel will re-attack Iran. In the next few months, I believe we have a window of opportunity for both sides to [deescalate],” he said in a call with reporters.
Iran has effectively crossed into nuclear threshold territory, Pinko argued, citing its advanced uranium enrichment, missile capabilities, and a history of weaponization efforts. According to intelligence reports from the CIA, US Congress, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has already reached uranium enrichment levels close to 90 percent — near weapons-grade. He further pointed to Iran’s proven ballistic and cruise missile range, capable of striking Israel, and recalled the stolen document trove revealed by Netanyahu in 2018 that outlined a comprehensive weaponization system.
“If we take those three elements — of weapons, the system that enables the nuclear reaction, and the enrichment of uranium,” Iran has possessed the critical components for a nuclear weapon “for at least three years,” Pinko said, adding that the regime has kept its capabilities under wraps in a bid to bolster its bargaining position on getting sanctions lifted.
“They have operational nuclear capabilities and are now stalling and playing with the narrative that they don’t, or that they are delaying, because this allows them a lot of political maneuvering,” he told The Algemeiner.
By downplaying the impact of Israel’s recent strikes domestically, Tehran is aiming to avoid escalation while hoping that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will secure the US presidency in the upcoming election, he said. Harris’s opponent, Republican nominee Donald Trump, had imposed crippling sanctions on Iran after he withdrew the US from a comprehensive but temporary nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 while serving as president.
With Iran’s options for rebuilding limited by Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine, Pinko expects Tehran will turn to China for assistance in replenishing its S-300 air defenses and other critical military infrastructure. China has been a strategic partner for Iran in defense and technology since the 1990s, providing support across areas such as missile development and cyber capabilities. Pinko’s assessment underscores a shifting dynamic where Iran’s defense strategy may increasingly rely on its Sino-Iranian partnership to reinforce its position amid Israeli and Western scrutiny. China’s S-300 air defense system is based on Russian technology, but it has likely incorporated upgrades to enhance performance, he said.
Pinko also pointed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s declining health as a factor in Iran’s restraint. With the 85-year-old revealed to have terminal cancer, internal power struggles over his succession have intensified, creating additional uncertainty in Tehran’s strategic decisions.
In his first remarks since the attack, Khamenei on Sunday said an Iranian “response would be determined by senior officials, in a way that best serves the interest of the people and also takes the state into account.”
“Israel made a mistake. They exaggerated, of course. To exaggerate about this is a mistake,” the Iranian leader continued. “But downplaying this [attack] is also a mistake. To say, ‘nothing happened; it wasn’t important,’ is also a mistake.”
He added, “The incorrect assessment by the Zionist regime must be corrected. They have a mistaken assessment about Iran.”
On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the regime will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s strikes on military targets in Iran over the weekend.
The post Iran Won’t Retaliate for Israeli Strikes, Open Season on Nuclear Sites Unlikely, Analyst Says first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Merz Says Criticism of Israel in Germany Has Become Pretext for Hatred of Jews
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz attends celebrations of the newly completed renovation of Reichenbach Strasse synagogue in Munich, Germany, Sept. 15, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Angelika Warmuth
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Wednesday that criticism of Israel was increasingly being used in Germany as a pretext for stoking hatred against Jews.
Speaking at an event to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Central Council of Jews, Merz said that antisemitism had “become louder, more open, more brazen, more violent almost every day” since the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, that ignited the Gaza war.
“‘Criticism of Israel‘ and the crudest perpetrator-victim reversal is increasingly a pretext under which the poison of antisemitism is spread,” he said.
Germany is Israel‘s second biggest weapons supplier after the US, and has long been one of its staunchest supporters, in part because of historical guilt for the Nazi Holocaust – a policy known as the “Staatsraison.”
Last month, however, Germany suspended exports of weaponry that could be used in the Gaza Strip because of Israel‘s plan to expand its operations there – the first time united Germany had acknowledged denying military support to its long-time ally.
The decision followed mounting pressure from the public and his junior coalition partner over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
In his speech in Berlin on Wednesday, Merz mentioned his about-turn, saying that criticism of the Israeli government “must be possible,” but added: “Our country suffers damage to its own soul when this criticism becomes a pretext for hatred of Jews, or if it even leads to the demand that Germany should turn its back on Israel.”
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Israeli Anti-Missile Laser System ‘Iron Beam’ Ready for Military Use This Year
Iron Beam laser defense system. Photo: X/Twitter screenshot
A low-cost, high-power laser-based system aimed at destroying incoming missiles has successfully completed testing and will be ready for operational use by the military later this year, Israel’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
Co-developed by Elbit Systems and Rafael Advance Defense Systems, “Iron Beam” will complement Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow anti–missile systems, which have been used to intercept thousands of rockets fired by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, by Hezbollah from Lebanon, and by the Houthis in Yemen.
Current rocket interceptors cost at least $50,000 each while the cost is negligible for lasers, which focus primarily on smaller missiles and drones. “Now that the Iron Beam’s performance has been proven, we anticipate a significant leap in air defense capabilities through the deployment of these long-range laser weapon systems,” the ministry said.
After years in development, the ministry said it tested Iron Beam for several weeks in southern Israel and proved its effectiveness in a “complete operational configuration by intercepting rockets, mortars, aircraft, and UAVs across a comprehensive range of operational scenarios.”
The first systems are set to be integrated into the military‘s air defenses by year-end, it said.
Shorter-range and less powerful laser systems are already in use.
Iron Beam is a ground-based, high-power laser air defense system designed to counter aerial threats, including rockets, mortars, and UAVs.
“This is the first time in the world that a high-power laser interception system has reached full operational maturity,” said defense ministry Director-General Amir Baram.
Rafael Chairman Yuval Steinitz said that Iron Beam, which is built with the company’s adaptive optics technology, “will undoubtedly be a game-changing system with unprecedented impact on modern warfare.”
For its part, Elbit was working on the development of high-power lasers for other military applications, “first and foremost an airborne laser that holds the potential for a strategic change in air defense capabilities,” CEO Bezhalel Machlis said.
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Iran and European Ministers Make Little Progress as Renewed UN Sanctions Loom, Diplomats Say
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi speaks during a meeting with foreign ambassadors in Tehran, Iran, July 12, 2025. Photo: Hamid Forootan/Iranian Foreign Ministry/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Iranian and European ministers made little progress in talks on Wednesday aimed at preventing international sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program being reimposed at the end of this month, two European diplomats and one Iranian diplomat said.
Britain, France, and Germany, the so-called E3, launched a 30-day process at the end of August to reimpose UN sanctions. They set conditions for Tehran to meet during September to convince them to delay the “snapback mechanism.”
The offer by the E3 to put off the snapback for up to six months to enable serious negotiations is conditional on Iran restoring access for UN nuclear inspectors – who would also seek to account for Iran‘s large stock of enriched uranium – and engaging in talks with the US.
The status of Iran‘s enriched uranium stocks has been unknown since Israel and the US bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June.
TALKS WITH EUROPEANS FOLLOWED ACCORD WITH IAEA
Wednesday’s phone call between the E3 foreign ministers, the European Union foreign policy chief, and their Iranian counterpart followed an agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency last week on resuming cooperation, including, in principle, the inspection of nuclear sites.
Several Western diplomats have said, however, that the accord is not detailed enough, sets no timeframe and leaves the door open for Iran to continue stonewalling.
There has also been no indication of a willingness from Iran to resume talks with Washington.
Iran says it is still refining how it will work with the IAEA.
In the call, Iran‘s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi expressed willingness to reach a “fair and balanced” solution, according to a statement on Iranian state media.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has entered into dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Agency with a responsible approach … on how Iran will fulfil its safeguards obligations in the new situation … It is now the turn of the opposing parties to use this opportunity to continue the diplomatic path and prevent an avoidable crisis,” Araqchi said.
GERMANY SAYS IRAN HAS NOT MET CONDITIONS
Germany’s foreign ministry said on X that the E3 had “underscored that Iran has yet to take the reasonable and precise actions necessary to reach an extension of Resolution 2231,” adding that sanctions would be reimposed unless there were “concrete actions in the coming days.”
The sanctions would hit Iran‘s financial, banking, hydrocarbons, and defense sectors.
Four European diplomats and an Iranian official said before the call that the most likely scenario would be the E3 going ahead with a reimposition of sanctions.
An Iranian diplomat said Tehran had reiterated that it would retaliate if the decision to restore UN sanctions was made.
“The understanding in Tehran is that the UN sanctions will be reimposed. That is why Tehran refuses to give concessions,” an Iranian official said.
The West says the advancement of Iran‘s nuclear program goes beyond civilian needs, while Tehran says it wants nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes.