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Iran Won’t Retaliate for Israeli Strikes, Open Season on Nuclear Sites Unlikely, Analyst Says

Unidentified men carrying a model of Iran’s first-ever hypersonic missile, Fattah, past a mosque during a gathering to celebrate a failed Iranian attack on Israel, in Tehran, Iran, on April 15, 2024. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Reuters Connect

Iran is not expected to retaliate for Israel’s precision airstrikes on its military and air defense sites, an Israeli weapons systems and intelligence expert told The Algemeiner on Sunday, adding that the Islamist regime’s ballistic missile program will need at least a year to recover from the strikes.

Dr. Eyal Pinko, who served in the Israeli navy and intelligence for more than three decades, said that while Saturday’s operation demonstrated Israel’s “amazing intelligence capabilities,” it was unlikely to appease the Israeli public, which was hoping for a more expansive retaliation targeting Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel’s strike on Saturday involved over 100 aircraft targeting Iranian missile production sites and air defenses, leaving Tehran vulnerable and disabling its key defensive capabilities. However, with US President Joe Biden pressing for restraint to avoid a broader regional conflict, Israeli officials have refrained from escalating the strike to include nuclear facilities and oil refineries.

The attack unfolded in a coordinated, three-wave strike. First, Israeli forces targeted radar systems in Syria and Iraq to clear the path for the main assault, followed by strikes on key Iranian air defense systems, including several S-300 and S-400 batteries around Tehran and Isfahan, effectively dismantling much of Iran’s aerial defense network. The third wave focused on Iran’s ballistic missile production facilities, aiming to disrupt missile manufacturing rather than existing stockpiles. According to Israeli defense sources, the operation significantly hindered Iran’s missile capabilities and production capacity, reducing its ability to launch large-scale attacks in the near future.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the “precise and powerful” air attack was in response to Iran firing more than 180 missiles at Israel earlier in the month, as well as ongoing attacks from its terror proxies in the region.

“Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of ballistic missiles and this attack failed. We kept our promise. The air force attacked Iran and hit Iran’s defense capabilities and missile production,” Netanyahu said, adding that the attack “achieved all its objectives.”

According to Pinko, all evidence points to Iran being a threshold nuclear state, but nonetheless Israel was unlikely to target Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, especially so close to the US elections on Nov. 5.

“In the short term I don’t believe that Israel will re-attack Iran. In the next few months, I believe we have a window of opportunity for both sides to [deescalate],” he said in a call with reporters.

Iran has effectively crossed into nuclear threshold territory, Pinko argued, citing its advanced uranium enrichment, missile capabilities, and a history of weaponization efforts. According to intelligence reports from the CIA, US Congress, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has already reached uranium enrichment levels close to 90 percent — near weapons-grade. He further pointed to Iran’s proven ballistic and cruise missile range, capable of striking Israel, and recalled the stolen document trove revealed by Netanyahu in 2018 that outlined a comprehensive weaponization system.

“If we take those three elements — of weapons, the system that enables the nuclear reaction, and the enrichment of uranium,” Iran has possessed the critical components for a nuclear weapon “for at least three years,” Pinko said, adding that the regime has kept its capabilities under wraps in a bid to bolster its bargaining position on getting sanctions lifted.

“They have operational nuclear capabilities and are now stalling and playing with the narrative that they don’t, or that they are delaying, because this allows them a lot of political maneuvering,” he told The Algemeiner.

By downplaying the impact of Israel’s recent strikes domestically, Tehran is aiming to avoid escalation while hoping that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will secure the US presidency in the upcoming election, he said. Harris’s opponent, Republican nominee Donald Trump, had imposed crippling sanctions on Iran after he withdrew the US from a comprehensive but temporary nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 while serving as president.

With Iran’s options for rebuilding limited by Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine, Pinko expects Tehran will turn to China for assistance in replenishing its S-300 air defenses and other critical military infrastructure. China has been a strategic partner for Iran in defense and technology since the 1990s, providing support across areas such as missile development and cyber capabilities. Pinko’s assessment underscores a shifting dynamic where Iran’s defense strategy may increasingly rely on its Sino-Iranian partnership to reinforce its position amid Israeli and Western scrutiny. China’s S-300 air defense system is based on Russian technology, but it has likely incorporated upgrades to enhance performance, he said.

Pinko also pointed to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s declining health as a factor in Iran’s restraint. With the 85-year-old revealed to have terminal cancer, internal power struggles over his succession have intensified, creating additional uncertainty in Tehran’s strategic decisions.

In his first remarks since the attack, Khamenei on Sunday said an Iranian “response would be determined by senior officials, in a way that best serves the interest of the people and also takes the state into account.”

“Israel made a mistake. They exaggerated, of course. To exaggerate about this is a mistake,” the Iranian leader continued. “But downplaying this [attack] is also a mistake. To say, ‘nothing happened; it wasn’t important,’ is also a mistake.”

He added, “The incorrect assessment by the Zionist regime must be corrected. They have a mistaken assessment about Iran.”

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said that the regime will “use all available tools” to respond to Israel’s strikes on military targets in Iran over the weekend.

The post Iran Won’t Retaliate for Israeli Strikes, Open Season on Nuclear Sites Unlikely, Analyst Says first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Montrealers say limits are needed for boisterous Friday evening demonstrations against Israel

There’s a way for everyone within earshot to know when Shabbat has arrived in the west side of downtown Montreal. Chants begin almost every Friday evening as the crowd—varying from […]

The post Montrealers say limits are needed for boisterous Friday evening demonstrations against Israel appeared first on The Canadian Jewish News.

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Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran

Israeli Air Force plane, October 26, 2024. Photo: Israel Defense Forces/Handout via REUTERS

It was late at night in Iran, when 180 ballistic missiles left their launchpads, briefly entered outer space, and finally descended toward their targets, which covered every square inch of Israel. The attempted carpet-bombing, which took place on October 1, was was the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. Israeli, US, and other allied systems intercepted most, but not all, of the missiles.

Israel launched its long awaited response this past Saturday: revealing both astonishing capabilities, and also a terrifying weakness.

Here’s what you need to know.

At approximately 2:00 AM on Saturday morning, an estimated 140 Israeli aircraft flew toward Iranian air space, and for three hours, struck military targets in multiple waves. This feat should have been impossible for the tiny Jewish state: it required flying almost 1,000 miles, much of it through hostile airspace (including Iraq and Syria), multiple in-air refuelings, and massive intelligence coordination.

Including the aerial refueling tankers, the search and rescue teams, and the fighter jets themselves, this one operation required an estimated 30% to 50% of the Israeli air force. A number of navigators were women, a significant statement given the Iranian regime’s severe limitations on women in its society. By 6:00 AM, all hands had returned home safely.

Code named מבצע ימי תשובה, the operation is often translated poetically as “Operation Days of Repentance” but can also be translated more simply (and equally accurately) as “Days of Answer.” By the Hebrew calendar, Israel’s “answer” to Iran commenced exactly a year and a day after the Iranian backed massacre of October 7.

Even now, new information is still coming out about the targets, but here’s what we know so far: Israel’s first wave took out air defense systems in Iran, Iraq and Syria, including the Russian made S300. These systems cannot be easily replaced, especially with Russia currently dedicating its resources to fighting in Ukraine, which leaves Iran vulnerable to future potential Israeli operations.

The second and third Israeli waves destroyed missile launchers and the factories that built them, presumably diminishing Iran’s ability to launch future attacks. Aside from missile infrastructure, one notable target was a secret Iranian military base in Parchin, which is closely linked to Iran’s nuclear research program; another was the air defenses that protect much of Iran’s oil production. As far as we know, there were no direct attacks on oil production itself, on nuclear facilities, or on Iranian leadership. Based on the latest data, civilian casualties came to a grand total of zero.

The message to Iran is clear: Israel can strike inside Iran: anywhere and at any time. Distance is not a barrier, air defenses are practically irrelevant, and Israel’s intelligence information, enabling pinpoint strikes on important Iranian resources, is impressive.

Yet Israel also telegraphed another message: that despite its significant military capabilities, the IDF does not enjoy the political freedom to actually use them.

Operation “Days of Answer” is the result of weeks of negotiations with the Biden/Harris administration, during which America applied enormous pressure on Israel to spare Iran’s leaders, its nuclear program and its oil production. The result is that Iran has not paid a price for its multiple missile attacks on Israel, other than the destruction of some those very missiles. That’s like saying that the penalty for murder is that the judge will confiscate your gun: it effectively communicates the message, “you have nothing to lose, so you might as well try again.”

Indeed, this is exactly what Iran has done: having attacked Israel with a massive barrage in April followed by another in October, an attempt on the life of the Israeli Prime Minister just last week, as well as over a year of attacks by its proxy forces, including the October 7 massacre itself.

While America is understandably obsessed with “stability,” its policy makers seem confused on how one achieves it. A case in point: Israeli forces killed Hamas leader and the mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza on October 16. Since that time, the number of rockets Hamas has successfully fired at Israel has come to a grand total of zero (down from approximately 6,000 per month at its peak last year).

This is not because Hamas does not wish to avenge its leader, but because it is no longer capable of doing so. This is what “regional stability” looks like, and it is the kind of stability we could achieve throughout the Middle East, if major Western powers did not invest quite so much energy into protecting their own enemies. For now, Western appeasement gives Iran a significant advantage and saddles Israel with a terrifying weakness: no matter what capabilities Israel may have, it is not able to actually use them.

Nonetheless, Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza demonstrate another truth: not only does Israel sometimes ignore American pressure, but when Israel is successful, America will sometimes (retroactively) support, and even try to share credit, for Israeli operations. A case in point:  in the past month, Israel has killed more terrorists on America’s “Most Wanted” lists than America has in the last 20 years, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who helped to kill 220 US Marines in their Barracks in 1983. Indeed, when Israel successfully took out Nasrallah, despite strong US pressure for an immediate ceasefire, the White House responded that “justice” had been done; after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar in Rafah, Vice President Kamala Harris, who had fiercely advocated against Israeli operations in Rafah, bizarrely stated “we” will always bring terrorists to justice.

Iranian leaders have communicated through various sources conflicting messages: that they will, and also that they will not, mount a “response” to Israel’s strike this week.

Israel has demonstrated that it has the military capacity to wreak significant destruction on the Iranian military machine, its leadership, and the oil infrastructure that funds both. As we wait to see how events unfold, one thing seems clear: the future direction of the Middle East lies, to a great extent, in Israel’s hands.

Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.

The post Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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Being Jewish Today: The Curse That Became a Blessing

Orange balloons fill the skies above Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square on Thursday as hundreds gathered to mark the grim milestone of the first birthday of Kfir Bibas, who is a hostage in Hamas captivity. Wednesday, January 17, 2024. (Photo: Debbie Weiss)

The time has come to take the hard steps needed for healing and to come together stronger than ever before. Let us take the necessary steps to confront our new reality, to cleanse our wounds, and to stand united with the people who are truly our allies.

In doing this, it is imperative to help re-educate well intentioned people who have been misled by half-truths and lies. Let us take the experiences of the curse of antisemitism and turn them into the blessings of understanding and common decency.

In a recent conversation on Honestly with Bari Weiss, Shabbos Kestenbaum shared a personal story that resonates deeply with the Jewish community. He described how he supported the Black Lives Matter movement and even marched alongside them, believing he was standing for justice.

He described how he was an advocate and supporter of Bernie Sanders in 2016 and then also in 2020. His credentials for the progressive movement were unmatched, and he assumed that those that he stood with would support him and his community in their time of crisis. What befuddled him, and ultimately woke many people up, was discovering that justice applies to all except for the Jewish people.

An example of this was that female Israelis’ experiences of being sexually abused were not initially believed. This surprised him, as it surprised many people, who otherwise believed that they were in complete alignment with the progressive side of the Democratic Party.

Similarly David Harris, the former head of the American Jewish Committee, gave a speech in Westchester, New York, where he expressed shock that in the past 40 years, he had been building bridges and supporting a gamut of different causes including women’s causes, LGBTQ causes, children’s cause’s, interfaith causes, and many more. He found it unconscionable that these organizations which have received the support of the Jewish community for decades remained silent in the face of the extreme violence perpetrated against the civilian population in southern Israel.

There is a recognition that something went very wrong along the way — where an ideology was promoted (and then reinforced) that allowed for the dehumanization of Jewish people.

As a tiny minority we must attempt to seek unity, however true unity cannot exist if we do not agree on certain fundamental facts.

One of the most basic — and urgent — questions we must ask ourselves is: who stands with us, and who stands against us. This is a truth that is painful to confront, but necessary to move forward.  Liberty yes, justice yes, equality yes — selective justice no, subjective truth no, hierarchy of the oppressed, no.

As Jews, we are heirs to a tradition that emphasizes introspection and moral clarity. Our tradition of teshuva — repentance — is not just about returning to God; it’s about returning to our core values. One of these is the value of self-preservation (survival). This journey starts with reflection and intellectual honesty. It requires us to admit difficult truths, first to ourselves, and then to others. We must be willing to do the hard work of partaking in teshuva — to ourselves and for our children.

In the wake of the October 7th attacks, many people have been shocked by the resurgence of antisemitism, both overt and subtle. It’s made many Jews feel vulnerable, in ways they haven’t felt in decades. Some have compared the current climate to 1930s Germany, but this comparison is flawed.

The United States, despite its challenges, remains a liberal democracy with a long history of equality and freedom. This is something that Weimar Germany, with its brief and unstable democracy, never had.

Moreover, we now have the State of Israel, a homeland for the Jewish people, which didn’t exist in the 1930s. This alone marks a fundamental difference between then and now. In today’s world, there is a country that will intervene on the behalf of worldwide Jewry in the event of an existential threat. It’s simply incorrect to equate today’s environment with that of Nazi Germany.

While we can recognize that we do have many challenges in front of us we should also know that it’s never been a better time to be Jewish when taking into account the arc of history. History has taught us that blessings can become curses and curses can become blessings. We will emerge stronger than before once we retrench and re-educate ourselves, as well as other people of good will.

Daniel Rosen has been a recognized opinion leader since his early college days, when he co-founded Torchpac, a pro-Israel advocacy group at New York University. Daniel is currently the chairman and co-founder of the pro-Israel group, Minds and Hearts. 

The post Being Jewish Today: The Curse That Became a Blessing first appeared on Algemeiner.com.

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