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Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran
It was late at night in Iran, when 180 ballistic missiles left their launchpads, briefly entered outer space, and finally descended toward their targets, which covered every square inch of Israel. The attempted carpet-bombing, which took place on October 1, was was the largest ballistic missile attack in human history. Israeli, US, and other allied systems intercepted most, but not all, of the missiles.
Israel launched its long awaited response this past Saturday: revealing both astonishing capabilities, and also a terrifying weakness.
Here’s what you need to know.
At approximately 2:00 AM on Saturday morning, an estimated 140 Israeli aircraft flew toward Iranian air space, and for three hours, struck military targets in multiple waves. This feat should have been impossible for the tiny Jewish state: it required flying almost 1,000 miles, much of it through hostile airspace (including Iraq and Syria), multiple in-air refuelings, and massive intelligence coordination.
Including the aerial refueling tankers, the search and rescue teams, and the fighter jets themselves, this one operation required an estimated 30% to 50% of the Israeli air force. A number of navigators were women, a significant statement given the Iranian regime’s severe limitations on women in its society. By 6:00 AM, all hands had returned home safely.
Code named מבצע ימי תשובה, the operation is often translated poetically as “Operation Days of Repentance” but can also be translated more simply (and equally accurately) as “Days of Answer.” By the Hebrew calendar, Israel’s “answer” to Iran commenced exactly a year and a day after the Iranian backed massacre of October 7.
Even now, new information is still coming out about the targets, but here’s what we know so far: Israel’s first wave took out air defense systems in Iran, Iraq and Syria, including the Russian made S300. These systems cannot be easily replaced, especially with Russia currently dedicating its resources to fighting in Ukraine, which leaves Iran vulnerable to future potential Israeli operations.
The second and third Israeli waves destroyed missile launchers and the factories that built them, presumably diminishing Iran’s ability to launch future attacks. Aside from missile infrastructure, one notable target was a secret Iranian military base in Parchin, which is closely linked to Iran’s nuclear research program; another was the air defenses that protect much of Iran’s oil production. As far as we know, there were no direct attacks on oil production itself, on nuclear facilities, or on Iranian leadership. Based on the latest data, civilian casualties came to a grand total of zero.
The message to Iran is clear: Israel can strike inside Iran: anywhere and at any time. Distance is not a barrier, air defenses are practically irrelevant, and Israel’s intelligence information, enabling pinpoint strikes on important Iranian resources, is impressive.
Yet Israel also telegraphed another message: that despite its significant military capabilities, the IDF does not enjoy the political freedom to actually use them.
Operation “Days of Answer” is the result of weeks of negotiations with the Biden/Harris administration, during which America applied enormous pressure on Israel to spare Iran’s leaders, its nuclear program and its oil production. The result is that Iran has not paid a price for its multiple missile attacks on Israel, other than the destruction of some those very missiles. That’s like saying that the penalty for murder is that the judge will confiscate your gun: it effectively communicates the message, “you have nothing to lose, so you might as well try again.”
Indeed, this is exactly what Iran has done: having attacked Israel with a massive barrage in April followed by another in October, an attempt on the life of the Israeli Prime Minister just last week, as well as over a year of attacks by its proxy forces, including the October 7 massacre itself.
While America is understandably obsessed with “stability,” its policy makers seem confused on how one achieves it. A case in point: Israeli forces killed Hamas leader and the mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza on October 16. Since that time, the number of rockets Hamas has successfully fired at Israel has come to a grand total of zero (down from approximately 6,000 per month at its peak last year).
This is not because Hamas does not wish to avenge its leader, but because it is no longer capable of doing so. This is what “regional stability” looks like, and it is the kind of stability we could achieve throughout the Middle East, if major Western powers did not invest quite so much energy into protecting their own enemies. For now, Western appeasement gives Iran a significant advantage and saddles Israel with a terrifying weakness: no matter what capabilities Israel may have, it is not able to actually use them.
Nonetheless, Israel’s operations in Lebanon and Gaza demonstrate another truth: not only does Israel sometimes ignore American pressure, but when Israel is successful, America will sometimes (retroactively) support, and even try to share credit, for Israeli operations. A case in point: in the past month, Israel has killed more terrorists on America’s “Most Wanted” lists than America has in the last 20 years, including Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who helped to kill 220 US Marines in their Barracks in 1983. Indeed, when Israel successfully took out Nasrallah, despite strong US pressure for an immediate ceasefire, the White House responded that “justice” had been done; after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar in Rafah, Vice President Kamala Harris, who had fiercely advocated against Israeli operations in Rafah, bizarrely stated “we” will always bring terrorists to justice.
Iranian leaders have communicated through various sources conflicting messages: that they will, and also that they will not, mount a “response” to Israel’s strike this week.
Israel has demonstrated that it has the military capacity to wreak significant destruction on the Iranian military machine, its leadership, and the oil infrastructure that funds both. As we wait to see how events unfold, one thing seems clear: the future direction of the Middle East lies, to a great extent, in Israel’s hands.
Daniel Pomerantz is the CEO of RealityCheck, an organization dedicated to deepening public conversation through robust research studies and public speaking.
The post Here’s the Takeaway From Israel’s Reprisal Attack on Iran first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students
Haredi Jewish men look at the scene of an explosion at a bus stop in Jerusalem, Israel, on Nov. 23, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Ammar Awad
Israel’s military said it would issue 54,000 call-up notices to ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students following a Supreme Court ruling mandating their conscription and amid growing pressure from reservists stretched by extended deployments.
The Supreme Court ruling last year overturned a decades-old exemption for ultra-Orthodox students, a policy established when the community comprised a far smaller segment of the population than the 13 percent it represents today.
Military service is compulsory for most Israeli Jews from the age of 18, lasting 24-32 months, with additional reserve duty in subsequent years. Members of Israel’s 21 percent Arab population are mostly exempt, though some do serve.
A statement by the military spokesperson confirmed the orders on Sunday just as local media reported legislative efforts by two ultra-Orthodox parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition to craft a compromise.
The exemption issue has grown more contentious as Israel’s armed forces in recent years have faced strains from simultaneous engagements with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.
Ultra-Orthodox leaders in Netanyahu’s brittle coalition have voiced concerns that integrating seminary students into military units alongside secular Israelis, including women, could jeopardize their religious identity.
The military statement promised to ensure conditions that respect the ultra-Orthodox way of life and to develop additional programs to support their integration into the military. It said the notices would go out this month.
The post Israel to Issue 54,000 Call-Up Notices to Ultra-Orthodox Students first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich attends an inauguration event for Israel’s new light rail line for the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, in Petah Tikva, Israel, Aug. 17, 2023. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israel’s far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich sharply criticized on Sunday a cabinet decision to allow some aid into Gaza as a “grave mistake” that he said would benefit the terrorist group Hamas.
Smotrich also accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of failing to ensure that Israel’s military is following government directives in prosecuting the war against Hamas in Gaza. He said he was considering his “next steps” but stopped short of explicitly threatening to quit the coalition.
Smotrich’s comments come a day before Netanyahu is due to hold talks in Washington with President Donald Trump on a US-backed proposal for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire.
“… the cabinet and the Prime Minister made a grave mistake yesterday in approving the entry of aid through a route that also benefits Hamas,” Smotrich said on X, arguing that the aid would ultimately reach the Islamist group and serve as “logistical support for the enemy during wartime”.
The Israeli government has not announced any changes to its aid policy in Gaza. Israeli media reported that the government had voted to allow additional aid to enter northern Gaza.
The prime minister’s office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The military declined to comment.
Israel accuses Hamas of stealing aid for its own fighters or to sell to finance its operations, an accusation Hamas denies. Gaza is in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe, with conditions threatening to push nearly a half a million people into famine within months, according to U.N. estimates.
Israel in May partially lifted a nearly three-month blockade on aid. Two Israeli officials said on June 27 the government had temporarily stopped aid from entering north Gaza.
PRESSURE
Public pressure in Israel is mounting on Netanyahu to secure a permanent ceasefire, a move opposed by some hardline members of his right-wing coalition. An Israeli team left for Qatar on Sunday for talks on a possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
Smotrich, who in January threatened to withdraw his Religious Zionism party from the government if Israel agreed to a complete end to the war before having achieved its objectives, did not mention the ceasefire in his criticism of Netanyahu.
The right-wing coalition holds a slim parliamentary majority, although some opposition lawmakers have offered to support the government from collapsing if a ceasefire is agreed.
The post Influential Far-Right Minister Lashes out at Netanyahu Over Gaza War Policy first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue
Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks to the media during a press conference with New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra, Australia, Aug. 16, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Tracey Nearmy
Australian police have charged a man in connection with an alleged arson attack on a Melbourne synagogue with worshippers in the building, the latest in a series of incidents targeting the nation’s Jewish community.
There were no injuries to the 20 people inside the East Melbourne Synagogue, who fled from the fire on Friday night. Firefighters extinguished the blaze in the capital of Victoria state.
Australia has experienced several antisemitic incidents since the start of the Israel-Gaza war in October 2023.
Counter-terrorism detectives late on Saturday arrested the 34-year-old resident of Sydney, capital of neighboring New South Wales, charging him with offenses including criminal damage by fire, police said.
“The man allegedly poured a flammable liquid on the front door of the building and set it on fire before fleeing the scene,” police said in a statement.
The suspect, whom the authorities declined to identify, was remanded in custody after his case was heard at Melbourne Magistrates Court on Sunday and no application was made for bail, the Australian Broadcasting Corp reported.
Authorities are investigating whether the synagogue fire was linked to a disturbance on Friday night at an Israeli restaurant in Melbourne, in which one person was arrested for hindering police.
The restaurant was extensively damaged, according to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry, an umbrella group for Australia’s Jews.
It said the fire at the synagogue, one of Melbourne’s oldest, was set as those inside sat down to Sabbath dinner.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog went on X to “condemn outright the vile arson attack targeting Jews in Melbourne’s historic and oldest synagogue on the Sabbath, and on an Israeli restaurant where people had come to enjoy a meal together”.
“This is not the first such attack in Australia in recent months. But it must be the last,” Herzog said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the incidents as “severe hate crimes” that he viewed “with utmost gravity.” “The State of Israel will continue to stand alongside the Australian Jewish community,” Netanyahu said on X.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese late on Saturday described the alleged arson, which comes seven months after another synagogue in Melbourne was targeted by arsonists, as shocking and said those responsible should face the law’s full force.
“My Government will provide all necessary support toward this effort,” Albanese posted on X.
Homes, schools, synagogues and vehicles in Australia have been targeted by antisemitic vandalism and arson. The incidents included a fake plan by organized crime to attack a Sydney synagogue using a caravan of explosives in order to divert police resources, police said in March.
The post Australia Police Charge Man Over Alleged Arson on Melbourne Synagogue first appeared on Algemeiner.com.