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Iranian Nuclear Progress Goes Much Further than Uranium
FILE PHOTO: The atomic symbol and the Iranian flag are seen in this illustration, July 21, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
JNS.org – As Tehran continues to make alarming progress on its nuclear program, the United States appears not to have made a firm decision on how to respond. Israel, which has already demonstrated an ability to send its air force to strike in Iran, is bracing for possible military action.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Professor Jacob Nagel, former acting national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ex-head of Israel’s National Security Council, who is today a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS on Thursday that the situation regarding the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program is alarming for two reasons.
First, he said, are “the Iranian ambitions and behavior,” and second is the unwillingness of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog and the Europeans to confront Iran over its nuclear progress, while the United States, he assessed, has yet to make a final decision on the matter.
“I very much hope Israel will succeed in clarifying the situation as it truly is,” said Nagel. “The problem is that some in Israel have also not yet internalized the situation, because they have gotten used to it over 20 years.”
Iran has significantly increased its stockpile of near weapons grade uranium, enough to produce six nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA report prepared for next week’s meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors and seen by Reuters.
The agency expressed grave concern over Tehran’s failure to resolve outstanding issues.
“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high-enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the IAEA stated, as reported by Reuters.
In parallel, Iranian regime media quoted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps general who issued a direct threat, apparently of a conventional missile attack against Israel. “Operation True Promise 3 will be carried out at the right time, with precision, and on a scale sufficient to destroy Israel and raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground,” Maj. Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari said.
Nagel assessed, “In my view, one can see the problem in the IAEA report coming out this week, which will unfortunately likely focus again on enrichment and the number of kilograms of 60% enriched material. The Iranian stockpile is growing, even though in my opinion, this is the least important issue. But this is what everyone has been dealing with for 20 years, and it is difficult for them to understand that something has changed.”
The ‘weapons group’
Nagel recently headed a government-appointed commission on the Israeli security budget and proposals for future priorities.
The Nagel Commission on Evaluating the Security Budget and Force Building Requests Proposals from the Public, to give it its full title, outlined a priority list for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat, which begins with the “weapons group”—the Iranian scientists and engineers tasked with weaponizing a nuclear device—weakening the regime, the deep underground site currently being built, where the enriched material is stored, and of course, the material itself.
Only in the last place did the commission list the well-known uranium enrichment sites at Qom and Fordow in Iran, as well as the centrifuges and all their components.
Asked whether Iran has activated its weapons group, Nagel said, “Without a doubt, there is a group, not officially called the weapon group, that is working to close technological gaps so that when the leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] gives the order to break forward, much time will be saved. For now, they are still working on things that have a tenuous civilian explanation, to avoid creating a smoking gun.”
Nagel referenced multiple assessments that estimate Iran could produce a crude nuclear device within six months, a timeframe primarily based on the work of nuclear expert David Albright and others.
“There are estimates that it will take six months to produce a crude device, led by Albright, and maybe even less. Not everyone agrees with them, but that is the range, assuming success in development. For a weapon system that can be installed on a missile, the estimate is still 18 to 24 months, although the Iranians are working on closing technological gaps,” said Nagel.
The so-called weapons group has been working in the background, without the official designation as a weapon group, for several years, he said. “It is part of the IRGC strategy, without official approval from the leader, but according to many, he knows exactly what is happening and turns a blind eye.”
According to Nagel, Iran’s ultimate goal has not changed: “It remains the destruction of Israel through conventional means under a nuclear umbrella—not to use it, but to deter.”
He noted that the collapse of Iran’s proxy-based “Ring of Fire” strategy, following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas and Israel’s subsequent military operations to destroy most of the capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah.
“The collapse of the ‘Ring of Fire’ concept, based on proxies, following 7/10, is very troubling to the Iranians, and I assume they are now looking for ways to overcome this collapse, alongside the effort to rearm the proxies around Israel.
“The most important and central point is that we must not once again, ahead of the IAEA board meeting and afterward, focus on enrichment and the amount of enriched kilograms that Iran has accumulated. That almost doesn’t matter, beyond highlighting the violations,” Nagel said.
“I belong to the camp that believes that even if Natanz and Qom are attacked and destroyed, but it is done without dealing with the weapon system, the already enriched material, and the deep underground site being built—[or without] simultaneously building capabilities to support activities that will destabilize the regime—such an attack could do more harm than good,” he warned.
“Because then, the Iranians will take the enriched material with a few hundred advanced centrifuges, go underground, and that’s it. When they finish the weapon system, they will have a bomb.”
A reliable military option
Speaking to Politico in Brussels, in an interview published on Feb. 26, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar warned that Iran has already enriched enough uranium for “a couple of bombs” and is “playing with ways” to move forward on weaponization.
“So we don’t have much time,” he said. While Israel still prefers a diplomatic solution, he acknowledged that “the chances of such an approach being successful are not huge” and failure to stop Iran’s nuclear program would be a “catastrophe for the security of Israel.”
Sa’ar added, “I think that in order to stop a nuclear Iranian program before it will be weaponized, a reliable military option should be on the table.”
Meanwhile, a report published on Feb. 19 by Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, discussed the revelation that a secret team of Iranian scientists has been working to shorten the country’s path to a nuclear weapon.
The report, based on intelligence collected during United States President Joe Biden’s final months in office and relayed to the incoming Trump administration, stated that “Iran likely has the capability and know-how to produce nuclear weapons but lacks confidence in the functionality of certain components.
“To deter a breakout, Washington and Jerusalem must review and, where necessary, enhance joint intelligence operations and capabilities to penetrate and sabotage Iran’s weaponization program and uncover weaponization facilities,” said the report.
“America should also mobilize the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to conduct in-depth inspections of illicit Iranian sites and activities. Concurrently, the United States and Israel must prepare and showcase effective military options and signal to the regime the credible threat of their use.”
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UK, France, Germany Urge Gaza Ceasefire, Ask Israel to Restore Humanitarian Access
People walk among destroyed buildings in Gaza, as viewed from the Israel-Gaza border, March 20, 2025. Photo: REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
The governments of Germany, France and Britain called for an immediate return to a ceasefire in Gaza in a joint statement on Friday that also called on Israel to restore humanitarian access.
“We call on Israel to restore humanitarian access, including water and electricity, and ensure access to medical care and temporary medical evacuations in accordance with international humanitarian law,” the foreign ministers of the three countries, known as the E3, said in a statement.
The ministers said they were “appalled by the civilian casualties,” and also called on Palestinian Hamas terrorists to release Israeli hostages.
They said the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians could not be resolved through military means, and that a long-lasting ceasefire was the only credible pathway to peace.
The ministers added that they were “deeply shocked” by the incident that affected the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) building in Gaza, and called for an investigation into the incident.
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Israeli Military Says It Intercepted Missile Fired from Yemen; Houthis Claim Responsibility
FILE PHOTO: Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Photo: Houthi Military Media/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
The Israeli military said it intercepted a missile fired from Yemen on Friday, one day after shooting down two projectiles launched by Houthi terrorists.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that it fired a ballistic missile toward Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv, the group’s military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, said in a televised statement in the early hours of Saturday.
Saree said the attack against Israel was the group’s third in 48 hours.
He issued a warning to airlines that the Israeli airport was “no longer safe for air travel and would continue to be so until the Israeli aggression against Gaza ends and the blockade is lifted.”
However, the airport’s website seemed to be operating normally and showed a list of scheduled flights.
The group’s military spokesman has also said without providing evidence that the Houthis had launched attacks against the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the Red Sea.
The group recently vowed to escalate attacks, including those targeting Israel, in response to US strikes earlier this month, which amount to the biggest US military operation in the Middle East since President Donald Trump took office in January. The US attacks have killed at least 50 people.
The Houthis’ fresh attacks come under a pledge to expand their range of targets in Israel in retaliation for renewed Israeli strikes in Gaza that have killed hundreds after weeks of relative calm.
The Houthis have carried out over 100 attacks on shipping since Israel’s war with Hamas began in late 2023, saying they were acting in solidarity with Gaza’s Palestinians.
The attacks have disrupted global commerce and prompted the US military to launch a costly campaign to intercept missiles.
The Houthis are part of what has been dubbed the “Axis of Resistance” – an anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance of regional militias including Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and armed groups in Iraq, all backed by Iran.
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Columbia University Agrees to Some Trump Demands in Attempt to Restore Funding
A pro-Palestine protester holds a sign that reads: “Faculty for justice in Palestine” during a protest urging Columbia University to cut ties with Israel. November 15, 2023 in New York City. Photo: Sipa USA via Reuters Connect
Columbia University agreed to some changes demanded by US President Donald Trump’s administration before it can negotiate to regain federal funding that was pulled this month over allegations the school tolerated antisemitism on campus.
The Ivy League university in New York City acquiesced to several demands in a 4,000-word message from its interim president released on Friday. It laid out plans to reform its disciplinary process, hire security officers with arrest powers and appoint a new official with a broad remit to review departments that offer courses on the Middle East.
Columbia’s dramatic concessions to the government’s extraordinary demands, which stem from protests that convulsed the Manhattan campus over the Israel-Gaza war, immediately prompted criticism. The outcome could have broad ramifications as the Trump administration has warned at least 60 other universities of similar action.
What Columbia would do with its Middle Eastern, South Asian, and African Studies department was among the biggest questions facing the university as it confronted the cancellation, called unconstitutional by legal and civil groups, of hundreds of millions of dollars in government grants and contracts. The Trump administration had told the school to place the department under academic receivership for at least five years, taking control away from its faculty.
Academic receivership is a rare step taken by a university’s administrators to fix a dysfunctional department by appointing a professor or administrator outside the department to take over.
Columbia did not refer to receivership in Friday’s message. The university said it would appoint a new senior administrator to review leadership and to ensure programs are balanced at MESAAS, the Middle East Institute, the Center for Palestine Studies, the Institute for Israel and Jewish Studies and other departments with Middle East programs, along with Columbia’s satellite hubs in Tel Aviv and Amman.
‘TERRIBLE PRECEDENT’
Professor Jonathan Zimmerman, a historian of education at the University of Pennsylvania and a “proud” graduate of Columbia, called it a sad day for the university.
“Historically, there is no precedent for this,” Zimmerman said. “The government is using the money as a cudgel to micromanage a university.”
Todd Wolfson, a Rutgers University professor and president of the American Association of University Professors, called the Trump administration’s demands “arguably the greatest incursion into academic freedom, freedom of speech and institutional autonomy that we’ve seen since the McCarthy era.”
“It sets a terrible precedent,” Wolfson said. “I know every academic faculty member in this country is angry about Columbia University’s inability to stand up to a bully.”
In a campus-wide email, Katrina Armstrong, Columbia’s interim president, wrote that the her priorities were “to advance our mission, ensure uninterrupted academic activities, and make every student, faculty, and staff member safe and welcome on our campus.”
Mohammad Hemeida, an undergraduate who chairs Columbia’s Student Governing Board, said the school should have sought more student and faculty input.
“It’s incredibly disappointing Columbia gave in to government pressure instead of standing firm on the commitments to students and to academic freedom, which they emphasized to us in almost daily emails,” he said.
The White House did not respond to Columbia’s memo on Friday. The Trump administration said its demands, laid out in a letter to Armstrong eight days ago, were a precondition before Columbia could enter “formal negotiations” with the government to have federal funding.
ARREST POWERS
Columbia’s response is being watched by other universities that the administration has targeted as it advances its policy objectives in areas ranging from campus protests to transgender sports and diversity initiatives.
Private companies, law firms and other organizations have also faced threatened cuts in government funding and business unless they agree to adhere more closely to Trump’s priorities. Powerful Wall Street law firm Paul Weiss came under heavy criticism on Friday over a deal it struck with the White House to escape an executive order imperiling its business.
Columbia has come under particular scrutiny for the anti-Israel student protest movement that roiled its campus last year, when its lawns filled with tent encampments and noisy rallies against the US government’s support of the Jewish state.
To some of the Trump administration’s demands, such as having “time, place and manner” rules around protests, the school suggested they had already been met.
Columbia said it had already sought to hire peace officers with arrest powers before the Trump administration’s demand last week, saying 36 new officers had nearly completed the lengthy training and certification process under New York law.
The university said no one was allowed to wear face masks on campus if they were doing so intending to break rules or laws. The ban does not apply to face masks worn for medical or religious purposes, and the university did not say it was adopting the Trump administration’s demand that Columbia ID be worn visibly on clothing.
The sudden shutdown of millions of dollars in federal funding to Columbia this month was already disrupting medical and scientific research at the school, researchers said.
Canceled projects included the development of an AI-based tool that helps nurses detect the deterioration of a patient’s health in hospital and research on uterine fibroids, non-cancerous tumors that can cause pain and affect women’s fertility.
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