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Iran’s Missile Program Set Back, but Nuclear Threat Remains

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands in front of an F-35 stealth fighter at the IAF’s Nevatim base, July 9, 2019. Photo: Amos Ben Gershom / GPO.
JNS.org – Israel’s airstrikes on military targets in Iran on Oct. 25 damaged the Islamic Regime’s missile program and air defenses, while demonstrating the Israeli Air Force’s advanced long-range capabilities.
However, Iran’s nuclear program was left unscathed, suggesting that Israel’s government factored in US pressure to keep the attack limited in nature. The question going forward is whether the damage to Iran’s missile and air defense infrastructure have paved the way for future strikes.
Iranian state media has reported that targets were hit in three main regions: Tehran, Khuzestan (in southwest Iran) and Ilam (western Iran).
The attack, which Israel named “Operation Days of Repentance,” saw tens of IAF jets, accompanied by refuelers, travel some 1,600 kilometers from Israeli territory. The IAF achieved near uncontested aerial supremacy in Iranian skies.
While Iranian state media is playing down the impact, the attack at the very least demonstrated Israel’s ability to strike deep in Iranian territory and conduct complex, multi-wave operations without sustaining losses.
Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Hezi Halevi commanded the operation from IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv, alongside IAF Commander Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar.
According to the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, the mission was successful, with all aircraft returning safely.
Following the strikes, Reuters cited a senior Biden administration official as saying that while Washington “was prepared to respond to any Iranian retaliation, President Joe Biden anticipated that Iran would not escalate the situation.”
This aligns with a broader pattern of US pressure on Israel to avoid direct attacks against Iran’s nuclear program, especially with US elections just days away and amid ongoing diplomatic efforts by the US aimed to avoid direct American involvement in a war against Iran.
As such, the attack was not only a military maneuver by Israel, but also a diplomatic one. By avoiding a direct confrontation over the nuclear issue, the Iranian regime was given the opportunity to de-escalate.
The immediate tactical question following the operation is whether Israel’s strikes have sufficiently degraded Iran’s missile and air defense capabilities to influence future engagements.
If Iran’s air defense network was significantly weakened, Israel may have an advantage in any potential follow-up operation. The fact that the operation spanned several hours, with multiple waves of attacks, suggests a sustained and methodical effort to diminish Iran’s military response capabilities.
The damage to Iran’s missile production sites is currently unknown, but might also slow down Tehran’s efforts to replenish and upgrade its ballistic missile arsenal, degrading a key component of Iran’s military strategy.
The key strategic question now is whether Israel anticipates a “Stage B.” While the recent strikes achieved tactical gains, Israel’s decision not to engage Iran’s nuclear facilities suggests that a future attack might hinge on Iran’s response or any perceived shift by Iran to break out to a nuclear bomb.
If the recent strike has indeed undermined Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, Israel might find a second wave—targeting more sensitive or strategically crucial sites—logistically simpler.
Yet Iran’s nuclear advancements continue. According to Sima Shine, director of the Iran and the Shi’ite Axis Research Program at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, within two to three weeks, Iran can enrich enough uranium for three nuclear devices. The parallel effort of creating a nuclear warhead, she told JNS this month, would take more time, though she noted Iran could also decide to just create a bomb without a missile warhead. “We’re talking about roughly six months to a year and a half,” she said. “What is needed is a political decision” on Tehran’s part.
In light of these developments, the focus on missile production and air defenses suggests Israel is playing a longer game, seeking to degrade Iran’s immediate military threat while leaving room for future strikes.
“Operation Days of Repentance” thus stands as a calculated maneuver, but one that leaves open critical questions about what comes next, and whether Israel has set the stage for a more decisive confrontation with Iran’s nuclear program.
The post Iran’s Missile Program Set Back, but Nuclear Threat Remains first appeared on Algemeiner.com.
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Report: IDF Probes Whether Houthis Used Iranian Cluster Bomb-Bearing Missile

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi addresses followers via a video link at the al-Shaab Mosque, formerly al-Saleh Mosque, in Sanaa, Yemen, Feb. 6, 2024. Photo: REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
i24 News – The Israeli military said Saturday it launched a probe into the failure of its defenses to fully intercept a missile launched by Yemen’s Houthi jihadists, parts of which struck not far from the Ben Gurion airport on Friday night.
According to the Ynet website, one of the hypotheses being examined is that the projectile contained cluster munitions, similar to those used by Iran to fire at Israeli cities during the 12-day war in June. Cluster munitions pose a challenge to interceptors as they disperse smaller explosives over a wide area.
In June, Iran fired several missiles carrying scattered small bombs with the aim of increasing civilian casualties.
The IDF said on Saturday that its initial review suggests the ballistic missile from Yemen likely fragmented in mid-air. Five interceptors from various systems engaged with the missile, including THAAD, Arrow, David Sling & Iron Dome.
Authorities said that shrapnel impacted a house in the central Israeli moshav of Ginaton, yet no one was hurt, with the fragment landing in the house’s backyard.
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Iran Forces Kill Six Militants, IRNA Reports, Israel Link Seen

The Iranian flag is seen flying over a street in Tehran, Iran, Feb. 3, 2023. Photo: Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Iranian security forces shot dead six militants in a clash in southeastern Iran on Saturday, a day after armed rebels killed five police officers in the restive region, the official news agency IRNA reported.
IRNA said evidence showed the group was linked to Israel and may have been trained by Israel‘s Mossad spy agency. There was no immediate Israeli reaction to the allegation.
Another two members of the militant group were arrested, the report said. All but one of the militants were foreign, it added, without giving their nationality.
Iranian police said this month they had arrested as many as 21,000 suspects during the 12-day war with Israel in June.
Iran’s southeast has been the scene of sporadic clashes between security forces and armed groups, including Sunni militants and separatists who say they are fighting for greater rights and autonomy.
Tehran says some of them have ties to foreign powers and are involved in cross-border smuggling and insurgency.
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Benny Gantz Urges Time-Limited National Unity Government to Further Chances of Hostage Deal

Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz attends his party’s meeting at the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusalem, June 27, 2022. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
i24 News – Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz on Saturday called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition politicians to form a temporary national unity government to further the chances of bringing home the hostages held in Gaza.
Addressing Netanyahu, Yair Lapid and Avigdor Liberman, Gantz said that the proposed government’s two supreme priorities would be the release of Israeli hostages held by the jihadists of Hamas and instituting universal conscription in Israel by ending the exemption from military service enjoyed by the ultra-Orthodox.
Upon attainment of the goals, the government would dissolve and call an election.
“The government’s term will begin with a hostage deal that brings everyone home,” Gantz said in a video address. “Within weeks, we will formulate an enlistment outline that would see our ultra-Orthodox brethren drafted to the military and ease the burden on those already serving. Finally, we will announce an agreed-upon election date in the spring of 2026 and pass a law to dissolve the Knesset [Israeli parliament] accordingly. This is what’s right for Israel.”